Forecasting China's primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm(AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization,and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.

Primary energy congestion of power systems

Primary energy has the potential to bring challenges to the reliability,economic,and eco-friendliness of global electric power systems.The concept of electric power security are proposed,including many factors that are not considered in power system reliability analysis,such as coal supply for power system,fuel price for electricity power market,carbon emissions of power generation,and so on.It is broader than power system reliability and security,which means that providing energy in the form of reliable,economical,and eco-friendly electric power.Following an account of existing blackout defence methods and systems,the processes of transforming various kinds of primary energy into electric power and the interactions between them are described,particularly with regard to flows of energy,capital,and information.Factors that limit the liquidity of these flows are defined as“generalized congestion”,and the challenges presented by primary energy are named“primary energy congestion”.China’s dilemma on coal supply for power generation is presented in some detail as an example of primary energy congestion.To cope with impacts of the primary energy on electric power systems,an idea is introduced to extend the scope of existing coordinated blackout defence systems to account for primary energy,which would lead to an integrated tool to provide decision support to power system operators accounting for primary energy congestion.

Approach for natural gas to be a primary energy source in China

This work reveals the positioning of natural gas in the evolution of world energy and the general law of its development.In the long-term adjustment of energy structure,natural gas has gradually become the primary energy source because of five factors:policy,resources,technology,facilities,and market.To expedite the revolution of energy production and consumption,China must urgently expand the use of natural gas toward a more positive role in complementing coal and renewable energy and prioritize its usage in three areas,namely,urban gas,power generation,and industrial fuel.Natural gas is expected to account for approximately 15%of China’s total energy consumption in the future.For natural gas to be the primary energy,the exploitation of gas resources must be expanded,resource access must be improved,a flexible trade system must be set up,infrastructure investment must be increased,and the security system must be enhanced.

Research on the Asymmetric Effect of Fixed-Asset Investment on China's Primary Energy Production in the Context of Energy Transformation

Under China’s“Dual Carbon”target(DCT),“clean replacement”on the energy supply side and“electric energy replacement”on the energy consumption side are the ways to achieve energy transformation.However,energy projects have a long construction period,complex technology categories,and investment risks that greatly affect the development of energy transformation.Correctly judging the effect of investment changes on primary energy production is of great practical significance to the realization of the DCT.Based on this,NARDL and TVP-SV-VAR models are innovatively used to reveal the nonlinear effect of fixed-asset investment on China’s primary energy production.The results show that the marginal effect of investment growth on coal production is about 1.44 times that of investment reduction.Similarly,the marginal effect of oil and gas investment growth is about 1.21times that of investment reduction.Due to the influence of resource constraints,China’s traditional fossil energy still has varying degrees of path dependence on the investment-driven development model.For non-fossil energy,investment in hydropower and nuclear power has an inverse correlation with the change in production.Negative marginal efficiency and diseconomies of scale have hindered the development of the hydropower and nuclear power industries.In addition,the asymmetric effect is not yet significant for the short development time and technical constraints of wind and solar power.From the impulse response results,the impact curves of investment in wind and solar power are generally positive,and investment has different degrees of time-delay and time-varying effects on various energy production,which verifies the heterogeneity of investment adjustment mechanisms in different energy industries.

Energy internet or comprehensive energy network?

What needs to be developed from the concept of"Smart Grid"is that:when renewable energy sources are absolutely prevailing in power generation,distributed power generation and distributed energy storage systems are widespread across the grid,and electric vehicle charging loads are prevailing in power load demands,how can the power grid support electric power as a core secondary energy source,undertake the role of a bridge between primary energy and end-use energy,and achieve the coordination and the optimization in macro energy perspective;how to guarantee the security of both macro energy and environment as well as the reliability of electricity.If a new term is needed,it should be Comprehensive Energy Network,not Energy Internet.

Linkage Analysis of Energy-Natural Resources-Economy-Environmental

Based on the integrated input output accounting system of natural resources and economy, Chinese 1992 Input Output Table and Chinese Statistics Year Book (1993) , one new and concrete Energy Economy Environmental Input Output Table, Chinese 92’Energy Economy Environmental Input Output Table is put forward in this paper, and scenario forecast and analysis of Chinese energy resources economy environmental situation (1992 2020) are given, too.

Potentials for Saving Energy and CO_2-Emission Through the Use of EPM Technologies

The paper demonstrates how electromagnetic processing of materials(EPM)provides significant opportunities for saving primary energy and reducing carbon emissions in industrial thermal processes.Potentially electricity can replace up to 100%of other energy carriers currently used for process heat.For the time horizon from now to the year 2050 a transition scenario is developed and described.In this scenario the industrial processes are gradually switched from the actual situation to a situation with 100%electrically operated industrial processes.The developed scenarios take into account the most energy intensive industrial thermal processes,which could be replaced by electrothermal technologies and offer obviously the biggest future potential in terms of saving of primary energy and reducing of carbon emissions.As the average primary energy factor(PEF)gradually decreases from 2.5 currently,to 1 for a 100%renewable electricity system,the benefits of EPM will gradually increase.For each step in the development of the PEF the annual primary energy savings and annual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are calculated and described in this paper.

Biomethane use for automobiles towards a CO_(2)-neutral energy system

To pursue the goal of sustainable mobility,two main paths can be considered:the electrification of vehicles and the use of biofuels,replacing fossil fuels,in internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles.This paper proposes an analysis of different possible scenarios for automobiles towards a CO_(2)-neutral energy system,in the path of the use of biofuels and the production,distribution and use of biomethane.The study,an update of work presented previously,focuses on different scenarios that take into account numerous parameters that affect the overall efficiency of the production-and-use process.A Well-to-Wheel analysis is used to estimate the primary energy savings and reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions compared both to the use of fossil-based methane and to other fuels and automotive technologies.In particular,the study shows that the Non-Renewable Primary Energy Consumption(NRPEC)for biomethane is slightly higher(+9%)than that of biodiesel,but significantly lower than those of all the other power trains analysed:-69%compared to the battery electric vehicle(BEV)and-55%compared to bioethanol.Compared to the use of fossil natural gas,the NRPEC is reduced to just over a third(2.81).With regard to CO_(2) emissions,biomethane has the lowest values:-69%compared to BEV,-176%compared to bioethanol and-124%with respect to biodiesel.Compared to the use of fossil natural gas,the CO_(2) emissions are reduced over a third(3.55).Moreover,the paper shows that biomethane can completely cover the consumption of fossil methane for vehicles in Italy,proposing two different hypotheses:maximum production and minimum production.It is evident,therefore,that biomethane production can completely cover the consumption of fossil methane for vehicles:this means that the use of biomethane in the car can lead to a reduction in NRPEC equal to 28.9×10^(6) GJ/year and a reduction of CO_(2) emissions equal to 1.9×10^(6) t/year.