A blast furnace fault monitoring algorithm with low false alarm rate:Ensemble of greedy dynamic principal component analysis-Gaussian mixture model

The large blast furnace is essential equipment in the process of iron and steel manufacturing. Due to the complex operation process and frequent fluctuations of variables, conventional monitoring methods often bring false alarms. To address the above problem, an ensemble of greedy dynamic principal component analysis-Gaussian mixture model(EGDPCA-GMM) is proposed in this paper. First, PCA-GMM is introduced to deal with the collinearity and the non-Gaussian distribution of blast furnace data.Second, in order to explain the dynamics of data, the greedy algorithm is used to determine the extended variables and their corresponding time lags, so as to avoid introducing unnecessary noise. Then the bagging ensemble is adopted to cooperate with greedy extension to eliminate the randomness brought by the greedy algorithm and further reduce the false alarm rate(FAR) of monitoring results. Finally, the algorithm is applied to the blast furnace of a large iron and steel group in South China to verify performance.Compared with the basic algorithms, the proposed method achieves lowest FAR, while keeping missed alarm rate(MAR) remain stable.

Optimization of Structure of Agricultural Insurance Subsidies:A Multi-task Principal Agent Model

Optimizing the structure of agricultural insurance subsidies is of great significance to increasing the supply of agricultural insurance and strengthening the effects of agricultural insurance policies.This paper optimized the structure of agricultural insurance subsidies.It decomposed insurance activities into three parts:underwriting,claim settlement,and agricultural services.Next,it incorporated adverse selection risks,moral hazards,agricultural production and operation risks,insurance company's behavioral decisions and its risk attitudes into the multi-task principal agent analysis framework.Finally,it discussed how the government designs a subsidy mechanism and adjusts the subsidy structure to increase the insurance supply.

Local component based principal component analysis model for multimode process monitoring

For plant-wide processes with multiple operating conditions,the multimode feature imposes some challenges to conventional monitoring techniques.Hence,to solve this problem,this paper provides a novel local component based principal component analysis(LCPCA)approach for monitoring the status of a multimode process.In LCPCA,the process prior knowledge of mode division is not required and it purely based on the process data.Firstly,LCPCA divides the processes data into multiple local components using finite Gaussian mixture model mixture(FGMM).Then,calculating the posterior probability is applied to determine each sample belonging to which local component.After that,the local component information(such as mean and standard deviation)is used to standardize each sample of local component.Finally,the standardized samples of each local component are combined to train PCA monitoring model.Based on the PCA monitoring model,two monitoring statistics T^(2) and SPE are used for monitoring multimode processes.Through a numerical example and the Tennessee Eastman(TE)process,the monitoring result demonstrates that LCPCA outperformed conventional PCA and LNS-PCA in the fault detection rate.

Leakage Rate Model of Urban Water Supply Networks Using Principal Component Regression Analysis

To analyze the factors affecting the leakage rate of water distribution system, we built a macroscopic "leakage rate–leakage factors"(LRLF) model. In this model, we consider the pipe attributes(quality, diameter,age), maintenance cost, valve replacement cost, and annual average pressure. Based on variable selection and principal component analysis results, we extracted three main principle components—the pipe attribute principal component(PAPC), operation management principal component, and water pressure principal component. Of these, we found PAPC to have the most influence. Using principal component regression, we established an LRLF model with no detectable serial correlations. The adjusted R2 and RMSE values of the model were 0.717 and 2.067, respectively.This model represents a potentially useful tool for controlling leakage rate from the macroscopic viewpoint.

基于多Agent传动关系的股市趋势预测

股市趋势预测是机器学习领域中一个具有挑战性的任务。由于一些因素对于股市的影响是动态且不确定的,导致股市趋势难以预测。针对已有方法在股市预测时存在的灵敏性差、适应力弱等问题,从快变量和慢变量的传动关系出发,利用Agent技术对股市中的快周期和慢周期进行联合建模,提出一种多Agent传动影响图(MATID)股市趋势预测方法。给出股市中快周期和慢周期的划分标准,并引入周期能量的概念;通过对相关趋势指标的特征融合,给出周期能量的量化计算方法;通过分析快周期和慢周期的动态作用过程,给出传动因子的表示方法;将快周期和慢周期分别对应成不同的Agent,利用多Agent影响图模型建模快周期和慢周期的传动过程;利用股市振子模型表示快Agent和慢Agent之间的传动效用,利用联合树的自动推理技术对股市趋势进行预测。在不同样本数量和不同股市趋势下进行实验,结果表明,与门控循环单元、S-LSTM和Hybrid-RNN预测方法相比,MATID方法预测精确率提升1.5%~7.0%,召回率提升5.4%~6.7%,F1值提升3.7%~6.2%,具有良好的灵敏性和适应力。

A function-based behavioral modeling method for air combat simulation

ion by proposing multiple levels of cascaded hierarchi-cal structures from the perspective of function,namely,the func-tional decision tree.This method is developed to represent behavioral modeling of air combat systems,and its metamodel,execution mechanism,and code generation can provide a sound basis for function-based behavioral modeling.As a proof of con-cept,an air combat simulation is developed to validate this method and the results show that the fighter Alpha built using the proposed framework provides better performance than that using default scripts.

Effect of neutral polymeric bonding agent on tensile mechanical properties and damage evolution of NEPE propellant

Introducing Neutral Polymeric bonding agents(NPBA) into the Nitrate Ester Plasticized Polyether(NEPE)propellant could improve the adhesion between filler/matrix interface, thereby contributing to the development of new generations of the NEPE propellant with better mechanical properties. Therefore,understanding the effects of NPBA on the deformation and damage evolution of the NEPE propellant is fundamental to material design and applications. This paper studies the uniaxial tensile and stress relaxation responses of the NEPE propellant with different amounts of NPBA. The damage evolution in terms of interface debonding is further investigated using a cohesive-zone model(CZM). Experimental results show that the initial modulus and strength of the NEPE propellant increase with the increasing amount of NPBA while the elongation decreases. Meanwhile, the relaxation rate slows down and a higher long-term equilibrium modulus is reached. Experimental and numerical analyses indicate that interface debonding and crack propagation along filler-matrix interface are the dominant damage mechanism for the samples with a low amount of NPBA, while damage localization and crack advancement through the matrix are predominant for the ones with a high amount of NPBA. Finally, crosslinking density tests and simulation results also show that the effect of the bonding agent is interfacial rather than due to the overall crosslinking density change of the binder.

Exploration on the Incentive Mechanism of Regional Ecological Capital Operation from the Perspective of Principal Agent

Ecological capital operation is a major means for innovation of ecological environment protection,and provides ecological security for sustainable economic and social development.In this paper,key factors for construction of incentive mechanism of ecological capital operation are explored from government cognition,enterprise attitude and public awareness.Via model building and parameter setting,incentive mechanism system of single objective is established effectively,to promote effective realization of regional ecological capital operation.

Estimation on principal component of multi-collinearity Gauss-Markov model based on minimum description length

Gauss-Markov model is frequently used in data analysis; the analysis and estimation of its parameters is always a hot issue. Based on the information theory and from the viewpoint of optimal information on description—minimum description length, this paper discusses a case: where there is multi-collinearity in the coefficient matrix, principal component estimation is used to estimate and select the original parameters, so as to reduce its multi-collinearity and improve its credibility. From the viewpoint of minimum description length, this paper discusses the approach of selecting principal components and uses this approach to solve a practical problem.

Calibration and validation of a sand model considering the effects of wave-induced principal stress axes rotation

Principal stress axes rotation influences the stress-strain behavior of sand under wave loading. A constitutive model for sand, which considers principal stress orientation and is based on generalized plasticity theory, is proposed. The new model, which employs stress invariants and a discrete memory factor during reloading, is original because it quantifies model parameters using experimental data. Four sets of hollow torsion experiments were conducted to calibrate the parameters and predict the capability of the proposed model, which describes the effects of principal stress orientation on the behavior of sand. The results prove the effectiveness of the proposed calibration method.

Application of synthetic principal component analysis model to mine area farmland heavy metal pollution assessment

Referring to GB5618-1995 about heavy metal pollution,and using statistical analysis SPSS,the major pollutants of mine area farmland heavy metal pollution were identified by variable clustering analysis.Assessment and classification were done to the mine area farmland heavy metal pollution situation by synthetic principal components analysis (PCA).The results show that variable clustering analysis is efficient to identify the principal components of mine area farmland heavy metal pollution.Sort and clustering were done to the synthetic principal components scores of soil sample,which is given by synthetic principal components analysis.Data structure of soil heavy metal contaminations relationships and pollution level of different soil samples are discovered.The results of mine area farmland heavy metal pollution quality assessed and classified with synthetic component scores reflect the influence of both the major and compound heavy metal pol- lutants.Identification and assessment results of mine area farmland heavy metal pollution can provide reference and guide to propose control measures of mine area farmland heavy metal pollution and focus on the key treatment region.

Real-time lane departure warning system based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution and risk evaluation model

A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.

A Hybrid Model Evaluation Based on PCA Regression Schemes Applied to Seasonal Precipitation Forecast

Possible changes in the structure and seasonal variability of the subtropical ridge may lead to changes in the rainfall’s variability modes over Caribbean region. This generates additional difficulties around water resource planning, therefore, obtaining seasonal prediction models that allow these variations to be characterized in detail, it’s a concern, specially for island states. This research proposes the construction of statistical-dynamic models based on PCA regression methods. It is used as predictand the monthly precipitation accumulated, while the predictors (6) are extracted from the ECMWF-SEAS5 ensemble mean forecasts with a lag of one month with respect to the target month. In the construction of the models, two sequential training schemes are evaluated, obtaining that only the shorter preserves the seasonal characteristics of the predictand. The evaluation metrics used, where cell-point and dichotomous methodologies are combined, suggest that the predictors related to sea surface temperatures do not adequately represent the seasonal variability of the predictand, however, others such as the temperature at 850 hPa and the Outgoing Longwave Radiation are represented with a good approximation regardless of the model chosen. In this sense, the models built with the nearest neighbor methodology were the most efficient. Using the individual models with the best results, an ensemble is built that allows improving the individual skill of the models selected as members by correcting the underestimation of precipitation in the dynamic model during the wet season, although problems of overestimation persist for thresholds lower than 50 mm.

A Cautionary Note on the Application of GIS in Spatial Optimization Modeling

Spatial optimization as part of spatial modeling has been facilitated significantly by integration with GIS techniques. However, for certain research topics, applying standard GIS techniques may create problems which require attention. This paper serves as a cautionary note to demonstrate two problems associated with applying GIS in spatial optimization, using a capacitated p-median facility location optimization problem as an example. The first problem involves errors in interpolating spatial variations of travel costs from using kriging, a common set of techniques for raster files. The second problem is inaccuracy in routing performed on a graph directly created from polyline shapefiles, a common vector file type. While revealing these problems, the paper also suggests remedies. Specifically, interpolation errors can be eliminated by using agent-based spatial modeling while the inaccuracy in routing can be improved through altering the graph topology by splitting the long edges of the shapefile. These issues suggest the need for caution in applying GIS in spatial optimization study.

SCM Implementation Decisions of Principal-Agent under Asymmetric Information

The optimization investment policy decision of SCM-Supply Chain Management-implementation has been analysed under symmetric and asymmetric information conditions. For both conditions, SCM implementation options’ decision optimizing models have been developed. In these models, both clients and vendors try to pursue their own benefits. Based upon the principal-agent theory, the models show to what extent a principal (a client) needs to pay more to an agent (a vendor) in a context of asymmetric information. For the client, it is important to understand the extra costs to be able to adopt effective strategies to stimulate a vendor to perform an optimal implementation of a SCM system. The results of a simulation experiment regarding SCM implementation options illustrate and verify the theoretical findings and confirm the general notion that the less informed party is obliged to pay information rent to the better-informed party.

Principal components of nuclear mass models

Principal component analysis(PCA)is employed to extract the principal components(PCs)present in nuclear mass models for the first time.The effects from different nuclear mass models are reintegrated and reorganized in the extracted PCs.These PCs are recombined to build new mass models,which achieve better accuracy than the original theoretical mass models.This comparison indicates that using the PCA approach,the effects contained in different mass models can be collaborated to improve nuclear mass predictions.

Principal Model Analysis Based on Bagging PLS and PCA and Its Application in Financial Statement Fraud

Motivated by the Bagging Partial Least Squares(Bagging PLS)and Principal Component Analysis(PCA)algorithms,a novel approach known as Principal Model Analysis(PMA)method is introduced in this paper.In the proposed PMA algorithm,the PCA and the Bagging PLS are combined.In this method,multiple PLS models are trained on sub-training sets,derived from the training set using the random sampling with replacement approach.The regression coefficients of all the sub-PLS models are fused in a joint regression coefficient matrix.The final projection direction is then estimated by performing the PCA on the joint regression coefficient matrix.Subsequently,the proposed PMA method is compared with other traditional dimension reduction methods,such as PLS,Bagging PLS,Linear discriminant analysis(LDA)and PLS-LDA.Experimental results on six public datasets demonstrate that our proposed method consistently outperforms other approaches in terms of classification performance and exhibits greater stability.Additionally,it is employed in the application of financial statement fraud identification.PMA and other five algorithms are utilized to financial statement fraud which concerned by the academic community,and the results indicate that the classification of PMA surpassed that of the other methods.