An improved interval model updating method via adaptive Kriging models

Interval model updating(IMU)methods have been widely used in uncertain model updating due to their low requirements for sample data.However,the surrogate model in IMU methods mostly adopts the one-time construction method.This makes the accuracy of the surrogate model highly dependent on the experience of users and affects the accuracy of IMU methods.Therefore,an improved IMU method via the adaptive Kriging models is proposed.This method transforms the objective function of the IMU problem into two deterministic global optimization problems about the upper bound and the interval diameter through universal grey numbers.These optimization problems are addressed through the adaptive Kriging models and the particle swarm optimization(PSO)method to quantify the uncertain parameters,and the IMU is accomplished.During the construction of these adaptive Kriging models,the sample space is gridded according to sensitivity information.Local sampling is then performed in key subspaces based on the maximum mean square error(MMSE)criterion.The interval division coefficient and random sampling coefficient are adaptively adjusted without human interference until the model meets accuracy requirements.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example of a three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring system and an experimental example of a butted cylindrical shell.The results show that the updated results of the interval model are in good agreement with the experimental results.

New approach to multiple attribute decision making with interval numbers

In an ambiguous decision domain, the evaluation values of alternatives against attributes would be interval numbers because of the inherent, uncertain property of the problems. By using a number of linear programming models, Bryson and Mobolurin propose an approach to compute attribute weights and overall values of the alternatives in the form of interval numbers. The intervals of the overall values of alternatives are then transformed into points or crisp values for comparisons among the alternatives. However, the attribute weights are different because of the use of linear programming models in Bryson and Mobolurin＇s approach. Thus, the alternatives are not comparable because different attribute weights are employed to calculate the overall values of the alternatives. A new approach is proposed to overcome the drawbacks of Bryson and Mobolurin＇s approach. By transforming the decision matrix with intervals into the one with crisp values, a new linear programming model is proposed, to calculate the attribute weights for conducting alternative ranking.

Multi-attributed decision making for mining methods based on grey system and interval numbers

In the case of unknown weights, theories of multi-attributed decision making based on interval numbers and grey related analysis were used to optimize mining methods. As the representative of independence for the indicator, the smaller the correlation of indicators is, the greater the weight is. Hence, the weights of interval numbers of indicators were determined by using correlation coefficient. Relative closeness based on positive and negative ideal methods was calculated by introducing distance between interval numbers, which made decision making more rational and comprehensive. A new method of ranking interval numbers based on normal distribution was proposed for the optimization of mining methods, whose basic properties were discussed. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method were verified by theories and practice.

On Weighted Possibilistic Mean,Variance and Correlation of Interval-valued Fuzzy Numbers

In this paper, the concept of weighted possibilistic mean of interval- valued fuzzy number is first introduced. Further, the notions of weighted possibilistic variance, covariance and correlation of interval-valued fuzzy numbers are presented. Meantime, some important properties of them and relationships between them are studied.

Interval grey number sequence prediction by using non-homogenous exponential discrete grey forecasting model

This paper aims to study a new grey prediction approach and its solution for forecasting the main system variable whose accurate value could not be collected while the potential value set could be defined. Based on the traditional nonhomogenous discrete grey forecasting model（NDGM）, the interval grey number and its algebra operations are redefined and combined with the NDGM model to construct a new interval grey number sequence prediction approach. The solving principle of the model is analyzed, the new accuracy evaluation indices, i.e. mean absolute percentage error of mean value sequence（MAPEM） and mean percent of interval sequence simulating value set covered（MPSVSC）, are defined and, the procedure of the interval grey number sequence based the NDGM（IG-NDGM） is given out. Finally, a numerical case is used to test the modelling accuracy of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed approach could solve the interval grey number sequence prediction problem and it is much better than the traditional DGM（1,1） model and GM（1,1） model.

Prediction model of interval grey number based on DGM(1,1)

In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.By mining the geometric features of interval grey number sequences on a two-dimensional surface,all the interval grey numbers are converted into real numbers by means of certain algorithm,and then the prediction model is established based on those real number sequences.The entire process avoids the algebraic operations of grey number,and the prediction problem of interval grey number is usefully solved.Ultimately,through an example＇s program simulation,the validity and practicability of this novel model are verified.

Selection Method of Evaluation Indicators with Three-Parameter Interval Grey Number

The evaluation problem with three-parameter interval grey number (T-PIGN) widely exists in real world. To select effective evaluation indicators of the problem, this paper puts forward evaluation index system selection principle of T-PIGN based on distance entropy model, and gives out evaluation index system selection judgment criterion of T-PIGN. Furthermore, for the redundancy of evaluation index system with T-PIGN, a selection method of evaluation index system with T-PIGN is proposed. Finally, the applicability of the proposed method is verified by concrete examples.

CALCULATION FOR KERNEL OF INTERVAL GREY NUMBER BASED ON BARYCENTER APPROACH

The kernel of interval grey number is most likely the real number,which can be used to represent whitenization value of interval grey number.A novel method for calculating kernel of interval grey number is constructed based on the geometric barycenter of whitenization weight function in the two-dimensional coordinate plane,and the calculation of kernel is converted to the calculation of barycenter in geometric figures.The method fully considers the effect of all information contained in whitenization weight function on the calculation result of kernel,and is the extension and perfection of the existing methods in the scope of application.

Option Pricing Method in a Market Involving Interval Number Factors

The method for pricing the option in a market with interval number factors is proposed. The no-arbitrage principle in the interval number valued market and the rule to judge the reasonability of a price interval are given. Using the method, the price interval where the riskless interest and the volatility under B-S setting is given. The price interval from binomial tree model when the key factors u, d, R are all interval numbers is also discussed.

On AP-Henstock Integrals of Interval-Valued Functions and Fuzzy-Number-Valued Functions

In 2000, Wu and Gong [1] introduced the thought of the Henstock integrals of inter-valvalued functions and fuzzy-number-valued functions and obtained a number of their properties. The aim of this paper is to introduce the thought of the AP- Henstock integrals of interval-valued functions and fuzzy-number-valued functions which are extensions of [1] and investigate a number of their properties.

On Henstock-Stieltjes Integrals of Interval-Valued Functions and Fuzzy-Number-Valued Functions

In this paper we introduce the notion of the Henstock-Stieltjes (HS) integrals of interval-valued functions and fuzzy-number-valued functions and discuss some of their properties.

MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION ABOUT DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE WITH INTERVAL PROBABILITY OR FUZZY PROBABILITY

The character and an algorithm about DRVIP（ discrete random variable with interval probability） and the secured kind DRVFP （discrete random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability） are researched. Using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the solving mathematical expectation of a DRVFP can be translated into solving mathematical expectation of a series of RVIP. It is obvious that solving mathematical expectation of a DRVIP is a typical linear programming problem. A very functional calculating formula for solving mathematical expectation of DRVIP was obtained by using the Dantzig＇s simplex method. The example indicates that the result obtained by using the functional calculating formula fits together completely with the result obtained by using the linear programming method, but the process using the formula deduced is simpler.

Mersenne Numbers, Recursive Generation of Natural Numbers, and Counting the Number of Prime Numbers

A simple recursive algorithm to generate the set of natural numbers, based on Mersenne numbers: MN = 2N – 1, is used to count the number of prime numbers within the precise Mersenne natural number intervals: [0;MN]. This permits the formulation of an extended twin prime conjecture. Moreover, it is found that the prime numbers subsets contained in Mersenne intervals have cardinalities strongly correlated with the corresponding Mersenne numbers.

Time variant multi-objective linear fractional interval-valued transportation problem

This paper studies a time-variant multi-objective linear fractional transportation problem. In reality, transported goods should reach in destinations within a specific time. Considering the importance of time, a time-variant multi-objective linear fractional transportation problem is formulated here. We take into account the parameters as cost, supply and demand are interval valued that involved in the proposed model, so we treat the model as a multi-objective linear fractional interval transportation problem. To solve the formulated model, we first convert it into a deterministic form using a new transformation technique and then apply fuzzy programming to solve it. The applicability of our proposed method is shown by considering two numerical examples. At last, conclusions and future research directions regarding our study is included.

区间二型模糊语言Z-numbers及其应用

针对区间二型模糊多属性群决策问题,提出了以区间二型模糊语言Z-numbers(IT2FLZNs)为信息环境的群决策方法。首先,在区间二型模糊集和Z-numbers理论基础上提出了区间二型模糊语言Znumbers并定义了其相关运算性质,提出了两个区间二型模糊语言Z-numbers之间的相似度与距离;其次,在专家和属性权重都未知的情况下,根据决策中总体不确定性最小原则,利用相似度构建最优化模型,确定专家和属性的权重,并且通过综合比较各方案的群体效用值、个体遗憾值和亲密度来选择最优方案;最后,通过一个银行流动风险的实例验证所提方法的有效性与可行性。

基于Interval-based AHP的网络安全态势评估

针对网络安全态势评估问题中存在的不确定性,提出了一种新的网络安全态势评估方法。首先建立了多层网络安全态势评估指标体系,在介绍区间层次分析法(Interval-based AHP,IAHP)基本原理的基础上,利用IAHP确定了网络安全态势评估指标的区间数权重。在此基础上,结合区间数理论建立了基于IAHP的网络安全态势评估模型。最后以实例形式对某高校网络服务系统的安全态势进行了评估,验证了所提方法的合理性和有效性。

INTERVAL ANALYSIS OF FUZZY-RANDOM HEAT CONDUCTION IN COMPOSITE TUBES

During the analysis of stability heat conduction in the composite tubes, firstly, when the temperature boundary conditions are the random conditions, equations of the mean values and variances of the random thermal function are transformed. Secondly, when the heat conduct parameters are the fuzzy numbers and the temperature boundary conditions are the random numbers, interval equations of the heat conduction are presented. Thirdly, by comparison of the interval results, the result in the interval analysis is larger than that in the confidence interval. Moreover the error expecting equation is presented. Finally, with upper （lower） approximation in rough set theory, a new method of the interval analysis to deal with the stability heat conduction is presented.

An Interval Programming-based Traffic Planning Model for Urban Vehicle Emissions Management

An interval linear traffic planning model is developed for supporting vehicle emissions limited under uncertainty. The interval linear traffic planning model can address uncertainties of traffic system and vehicle emissions related to system costs and limitation of emission. The interval linear traffic planning model is applicable to complex traffic system. One virtual city as our study object was taken by using the interval linear traffic planning model. In this study, one virtual case and a scenario are provided for three planning periods. The results indicate that the interval linear traffic planning model can effectively reduce the vehicles emission and provide strategies for authorities to deal with problems of transportation system.

Bombieri's Theorem in Short Intervals

Under the assumption of sixth power large.sieve mean-value of Dirichlet L-function, we improve Bombieri＇s theorem in short intervals by virtue of the large sieve method and Heath-Brown＇s identity.

Application of Interval Multi-attribute Decision-Making Method to Aeroengine Performance Ranking

In view of the uncertainty of the monitored performance parameters of aeroengines, the fluctuating scope of the monitored infurmation during a period is taken as interval numbers, and the interval multi-attribute decision-making method is employed to predict the performance of aeroengine, The synthetic weights of interval numbers are obtained by calculating deviation degree and possibility degree. As an example of application, 5 performance parameters monitored on 10 CF6 aeroengines of China Eastern Airlines Co., Ltd are adopted as decision attributes to verify the algorithm. The obtained synthetic ranking result shows the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed method in reflecting the performance stares of aeroengins.