Uncertainty quantification of inverse analysis for geomaterials using probabilistic programming

Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.

Probabilistic back-analysis of rainfall-induced landslides for slope reliability prediction with multi-source information

Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.

Reachability-Based Confidence-Aware Probabilistic Collision Detection in Highway Driving

Risk assessment is a crucial component of collision warning and avoidance systems for intelligent vehicles.Reachability-based formal approaches have been developed to ensure driving safety to accurately detect potential vehicle collisions.However,they suffer from over-conservatism,potentially resulting in false–positive risk events in complicated real-world applications.In this paper,we combine two reachability analysis techniques,a backward reachable set(BRS)and a stochastic forward reachable set(FRS),and propose an integrated probabilistic collision–detection framework for highway driving.Within this framework,we can first use a BRS to formally check whether a two-vehicle interaction is safe;otherwise,a prediction-based stochastic FRS is employed to estimate the collision probability at each future time step.Thus,the framework can not only identify non-risky events with guaranteed safety but also provide accurate collision risk estimation in safety-critical events.To construct the stochastic FRS,we develop a neural network-based acceleration model for surrounding vehicles and further incorporate a confidence-aware dynamic belief to improve the prediction accuracy.Extensive experiments were conducted to validate the performance of the acceleration prediction model based on naturalistic highway driving data.The efficiency and effectiveness of the framework with infused confidence beliefs were tested in both naturalistic and simulated highway scenarios.The proposed risk assessment framework is promising for real-world applications.

Lychrel Numbers in Base 10: A Probabilistic Approach

For decades, Lychrel numbers have been studied on many bases. Their existence has been proven in base 2, 11 or 17. This paper presents a probabilistic proof of the existence of Lychrel number in base 10 and provides some properties which enable a mathematical extraction of new Lychrel numbers from existing ones. This probabilistic approach has the advantage of being extendable to other bases. The results show that palindromes can also be Lychrel numbers.

Probabilistic modeling of multifunction radars with autoregressive kernel mixture network

The task of modeling and analyzing intercepted multifunction radars(MFRs)pulse trains is vital for cognitive electronic reconnaissance.Existing methodologies predominantly rely on prior information or heavily constrained models,posing challenges for non-cooperative applications.This paper introduces a novel approach to model MFRs using a Bayesian network,where the conditional probability density function is approximated by an autoregressive kernel mixture network(ARKMN).Utilizing the estimated probability density function,a dynamic programming algorithm is proposed for denoising and detecting change points in the intercepted MFRs pulse trains.Simulation results affirm the proposed method's efficacy in modeling MFRs,outperforming the state-of-the-art in pulse train denoising and change point detection.

Probabilistic seismic inversion based on physics-guided deep mixture density network

Deterministic inversion based on deep learning has been widely utilized in model parameters estimation.Constrained by logging data,seismic data,wavelet and modeling operator,deterministic inversion based on deep learning can establish nonlinear relationships between seismic data and model parameters.However,seismic data lacks low-frequency and contains noise,which increases the non-uniqueness of the solutions.The conventional inversion method based on deep learning can only establish the deterministic relationship between seismic data and parameters,and cannot quantify the uncertainty of inversion.In order to quickly quantify the uncertainty,a physics-guided deep mixture density network(PG-DMDN)is established by combining the mixture density network(MDN)with the deep neural network(DNN).Compared with Bayesian neural network(BNN)and network dropout,PG-DMDN has lower computing cost and shorter training time.A low-frequency model is introduced in the training process of the network to help the network learn the nonlinear relationship between narrowband seismic data and low-frequency impedance.In addition,the block constraints are added to the PG-DMDN framework to improve the horizontal continuity of the inversion results.To illustrate the benefits of proposed method,the PG-DMDN is compared with existing semi-supervised inversion method.Four synthetic data examples of Marmousi II model are utilized to quantify the influence of forward modeling part,low-frequency model,noise and the pseudo-wells number on inversion results,and prove the feasibility and stability of the proposed method.In addition,the robustness and generality of the proposed method are verified by the field seismic data.

Flight Time Minimization of UAV for Cooperative Data Collection in Probabilistic LoS Channel

This paper investigates the data collection in an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)-aided Internet of Things(IoT) network, where a UAV is dispatched to collect data from ground sensors in a practical and accurate probabilistic line-of-sight(LoS) channel. Especially, access points(APs) are introduced to collect data from some sensors in the unlicensed band to improve data collection efficiency. We formulate a mixed-integer non-convex optimization problem to minimize the UAV flight time by jointly designing the UAV 3D trajectory and sensors’ scheduling, while ensuring the required amount of data can be collected under the limited UAV energy. To solve this nonconvex problem, we recast the objective problem into a tractable form. Then, the problem is further divided into several sub-problems to solve iteratively, and the successive convex approximation(SCA) scheme is applied to solve each non-convex subproblem. Finally,the bisection search is adopted to speed up the searching for the minimum UAV flight time. Simulation results verify that the UAV flight time can be shortened by the proposed method effectively.

Development of a DFN-based probabilistic block theory approach for bench face angle design in open pit mining

In open pit mining,uncontrolled block instabilities have serious social,economic and regulatory consequences,such as casualties,disruption of operation and increased regulation difficulties.For this reason,bench face angle,as one of the controlling parameters associated with block instabilities,should be carefully designed for sustainable mining.This study introduces a discrete fracture network(DFN)-based probabilistic block theory approach for the fast design of the bench face angle.A major advantage is the explicit incorporation of discontinuity size and spatial distribution in the procedure of key blocks testing.The proposed approach was applied to a granite mine in China.First,DFN models were generated from a multi-step modeling procedure to simulate the complex structural characteristics of pit slopes.Then,a modified key blocks searching method was applied to the slope faces modeled,and a cumulative probability of failure was obtained for each sector.Finally,a bench face angle was determined commensurate with an acceptable risk level of stability.The simulation results have shown that the number of hazardous traces exposed on the slope face can be significantly reduced when the suggested bench face angle is adopted,indicating an extremely low risk of uncontrolled block instabilities.

Probabilistic Calculation of Tidal Currents forWind Powered Systems Using PSO Improved LHS

This paper introduces the Particle SwarmOptimization(PSO)algorithmto enhance the LatinHypercube Sampling(LHS)process.The key objective is to mitigate the issues of lengthy computation times and low computational accuracy typically encountered when applying Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)to LHS for probabilistic trend calculations.The PSOmethod optimizes sample distribution,enhances global search capabilities,and significantly boosts computational efficiency.To validate its effectiveness,the proposed method was applied to IEEE34 and IEEE-118 node systems containing wind power.The performance was then compared with Latin Hypercubic Important Sampling(LHIS),which integrates significant sampling with theMonte Carlomethod.The comparison results indicate that the PSO-enhanced method significantly improves the uniformity and representativeness of the sampling.This enhancement leads to a reduction in data errors and an improvement in both computational accuracy and convergence speed.

A Probabilistic Description of the Impact of Vaccine-Induced Immunity in the Dynamics of COVID-19 Transmission

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has caused millions of deaths worldwide and a huge societal and economic impact in virtually all countries. A large variety of mathematical models to describe the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission have been reported. Among them, Bayesian probabilistic models of COVID-19 transmission dynamics have been very efficient in the interpretation of early data from the beginning of the pandemic, helping to estimate the impact of non-pharmacological measures in each country, and forecasting the evolution of the pandemic in different potential scenarios. These models use probability distribution curves to describe key dynamic aspects of the transmission, like the probability for every infected person of infecting other individuals, dying or recovering, with parameters obtained from experimental epidemiological data. However, the impact of vaccine-induced immunity, which has been key for controlling the public health emergency caused by the pandemic, has been more challenging to describe in these models, due to the complexity of experimental data. Here we report different probability distribution curves to model the acquisition and decay of immunity after vaccination. We discuss the mathematical background and how these models can be integrated in existing Bayesian probabilistic models to provide a good estimation of the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission during the entire pandemic period.

Probabilistic method and its application for evaluating carbonation life of newly-built concrete structures

In order to evaluate the carbonation life of newly-built concrete structures,two kinds of nondestructive methods are adopted to test the thickness of the concrete cover and the ultrasonic velocity of two newly-built tunnel structures.Simultaneously a probabilistic method is proposed based on the relationship between the accelerated carbonation rate and the ultrasonic velocity.This proposed method is applied to evaluate the carbonation related lives of two newly-built tunnels and the results indicate that even under nearly the same environment and CO2 combining conditions,there exits a big difference in the probabilistic carbonation lives between the two tunnels;i.e.,the probabilistic lives of Tunnel A and Tunnel B are 94.0% and 82.3% and the corresponding maximum discrepancies are 11.6% and 27.0%,respectively.Thus,it can be concluded that the scattered quality of the concrete cover is attributed to the differences in construction technique,which eventually leads to the diversity in the evaluated probabilistic carbonation lives of the two tunnels.

DAMAGE CLASSIFICATION BY PROBABILISTIC NEURAL NETWORKS BASED ON LATENT COMPONENTS FOR TIME-VARYING SYSTEM

A new approach to damage classification for health monitoring of a time-varylng system is presented. The functional-series time-dependent auto regressive moving average （FS-TARMA） time series model is applied to the vibration signal observed in the time-varying system for estimating the TAR/TMA parameters and the innovation variance. These parameters are the functions of the time, represented by a group of projection coefficients on the certain functional subspace with specific basis functions. The estimated TAR/TMA parameters and the innovation variance are further used to calculate the latent components （LCs） as the more informative data for health monitoring evaluation, based on an eigenvalue decomposition technique. LCs are then combined and reduced to numerical values （NVs） as feature sets, which are input to a probabilistic neural network （PNN） for the damage classification. For the evaluation of the proposed method, numerical simulations of the damage classification for a tlme-varylng system are used, in which different classes of damage are modeled by the mass or stiffness reductions. It is demonstrated that the method can identify the damages in the course of operation and the change of parameters on the time-varying background of the system.

A Fuzzy Probabilistic Influence Diagram Method to Assess Marine Configuration Risk

A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.

PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR LONG FATIGUE CRACK GROWTH RATES OF LZ50 AXLE STEEL

Experimental study is performed on the probabilistic models for the long fatigue crack growth rates (da/dN) of LZ50 axle steel. An equation for crack growth rate was derived to consider the trend of stress intensity factor range going down to the threshold and the average stress effect. The probabilistic models were presented on the equation. They consist of the probabilistic da/dN-ΔK relations, the confidence-based da/dN-ΔK relations, and the probabilistic- and confidence-based da/dN-ΔK relations. Efforts were made respectively to characterize the effects of probabilistic assessments due to the scattering regularity of test data, the number of sampling, and both of them. These relations can provide wide selections for practice. Analysis on the test data of LZ50 steel indicates that the present models are available and feasible.

Radial Based Probabilistic Roadmap Motion Planning Method in Sparse Environment

A new dynamic path planning method in high dimensional workspace, radial based probabilistic roadmap motion (RBPRM) planning method, is presented. Different from general probabilistic roadmap motion planning methods, it uses straight lines as long as possible to construct a path graph, so the final path obtained from the graph is relatively shorter and straighter. Experimental results show the efficiency of the algorithm in finding shorter paths in sparse environment.

Computer vision-based limestone rock-type classification using probabilistic neural network

Proper quality planning of limestone raw materials is an essential job of maintaining desired feed in cement plant. Rock-type identification is an integrated part of quality planning for limestone mine. In this paper, a computer vision-based rock-type classification algorithm is proposed for fast and reliable identification without human intervention. A laboratory scale vision-based model was developed using probabilistic neural network（PNN） where color histogram features are used as input. The color image histogram-based features that include weighted mean, skewness and kurtosis features are extracted for all three color space red, green, and blue. A total nine features are used as input for the PNN classification model. The smoothing parameter for PNN model is selected judicially to develop an optimal or close to the optimum classification model. The developed PPN is validated using the test data set and results reveal that the proposed vision-based model can perform satisfactorily for classifying limestone rocktypes. Overall the error of mis-classification is below 6%. When compared with other three classification algorithms, it is observed that the proposed method performs substantially better than all three classification algorithms.

Probabilistic assessment of rock slopes stability using the response surface approach——A case study

This paper examines the stability condition of a jointed rock slope in the south western region of Saudi Arabia using deterministic and probabilistic approaches,under both dry and wet conditions.The study area is characterized by complex geology in rugged terrains.The stability analysis is carried out using the code FLAC3D to generate a 3-dimensional,ubiquitous joint model,to determine the influence of the dominant,unfavourable discontinuity orientation with respect to the slope face.The deterministic analysis is first implemented using the mean values of the selected random variables,namely the dip,dip direction and friction angle of the dominant discontinuity set,and the stability condition is assessed with a factor of safety based on the classical frictional joint constitutive model.A Box-Behnken design(BBD)approach is then adopted to create the surface response function as a second order polynomial for the factor of safety.To do so,fifteen FLAC3D models are generated in accordance with the BBD.Based on this,10,000 simulations of different slope realizations are carried out using Monte-Carlo simulation technique,and the probability of unsatisfactory of performance of the rock slope is assessed.It is shown that the probabilistic approach provides more insight and confidence in the stability condition of the rock slope,both under dry and steady state heavy rainfall conditions.A discussion is presented on the significance of accepting lower safety factors when heavy rainfall conditions are encountered.

Probabilistic small signal stability analysis of power system with wind power and photovoltaic power based on probability collocation method

Recently, with increasing improvements in the penetration of wind power and photovoltaic power in the world, probabilistic small signal stability analysis(PSSSA) of a power system consisting of multiple types of renewable energy has become a key problem. To address this problem, this study proposes a probabilistic collocation method(PCM)-based PSSSA for a power system consisting of wind farms and photovoltaic farms. Compared with the conventional Monte Carlo method, the proposed method meets the accuracy and precision requirements and greatly reduces the computation; therefore, it is suitable for the PSSSA of this power system. Case studies are conducted based on a 4-machine 2-area and New England systems, respectively. The simulation results show that, by reducing synchronous generator output to improve the penetration of renewable energy, the probabilistic small signal stability(PSSS) of the system is enhanced. Conversely, by removing part of the synchronous generators to improve the penetration of renewable energy, the PSSS of the system may be either enhanced or deteriorated.

Probabilistic Automatic Outlier Detection for Surface Air Quality Measurements from the China National Environmental Monitoring Network

Although quality assurance and quality control procedures are routinely applied in most air quality networks, outliers can still occur due to instrument malfunctions, the influence of harsh environments and the limitation of measuring methods. Such outliers pose challenges for data-powered applications such as data assimilation, statistical analysis of pollution characteristics and ensemble forecasting. Here, a fully automatic outlier detection method was developed based on the probability of residuals, which are the discrepancies between the observed and the estimated concentration values. The estimation can be conducted using filtering—or regressions when appropriate—to discriminate four types of outliers characterized by temporal and spatial inconsistency, instrument-induced low variances, periodic calibration exceptions, and less PM_(10) than PM_(2.5) in concentration observations, respectively. This probabilistic method was applied to detect all four types of outliers in hourly surface measurements of six pollutants(PM_(2.5), PM_(10),SO_2,NO_2,CO and O_3) from 1436 stations of the China National Environmental Monitoring Network during 2014-16. Among the measurements, 0.65%-5.68% are marked as outliers. with PM_(10) and CO more prone to outliers. Our method successfully identifies a trend of decreasing outliers from 2014 to 2016,which corresponds to known improvements in the quality assurance and quality control procedures of the China National Environmental Monitoring Network. The outliers can have a significant impact on the annual mean concentrations of PM_(2.5),with differences exceeding 10 μg m^(-3) at 66 sites.

Probabilistic Lifetime Assessment of Marine Reinforced Concrete with Steel Corrosion and Cover Cracking

In order to study the durability behavior of marine reinforced concrete structure suffering from chloride attack, the structural service life is assumed to be divided into three critical stages, which can be characterized by steel corrosion and cover cracking. For each stage, a calculated model used to predict the lifetime is developed. Based on the definition of durability limit state, a probabilistic lifetime model and its time-dependent reliability analytical method are proposed considering the random natures of influencing factors. Then, the probabilistic lifetime prediction models are applied to a bridge pier located in the Hangzhou Bay with Monte Carlo simulation. It is found that the time to corrosion initiation to follows a lognormal distribution, while that the time from corrosion initiation to cover cracking t~ and the time for crack to develop from hairline crack to a limit crack width t2 can be described by Weibull distributions. With the permitted failure probability of 5.0%, it is also observed that the structural durability lifetime mainly depends on the durability life to and that the percentage of participation of the life to to the total service life grows from 61.5% to 83.6% when the cover thickness increases from 40 mm to 80 mm. Therefore, for any part of the marine RC bridge, the lifetime predictions and maintenance efforts should also be directed toward controlling the stage of corrosion initiation induced by chloride ion.