A Probabilistic Description of the Impact of Vaccine-Induced Immunity in the Dynamics of COVID-19 Transmission

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has caused millions of deaths worldwide and a huge societal and economic impact in virtually all countries. A large variety of mathematical models to describe the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission have been reported. Among them, Bayesian probabilistic models of COVID-19 transmission dynamics have been very efficient in the interpretation of early data from the beginning of the pandemic, helping to estimate the impact of non-pharmacological measures in each country, and forecasting the evolution of the pandemic in different potential scenarios. These models use probability distribution curves to describe key dynamic aspects of the transmission, like the probability for every infected person of infecting other individuals, dying or recovering, with parameters obtained from experimental epidemiological data. However, the impact of vaccine-induced immunity, which has been key for controlling the public health emergency caused by the pandemic, has been more challenging to describe in these models, due to the complexity of experimental data. Here we report different probability distribution curves to model the acquisition and decay of immunity after vaccination. We discuss the mathematical background and how these models can be integrated in existing Bayesian probabilistic models to provide a good estimation of the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission during the entire pandemic period.

Assessing citizen science opportunities in forest monitoring using probabilistic topic modelling

Background： With mounting global environmental, social and economic pressures the resilience and stability of forests and thus the provisioning of vital ecosystem services is increasingly threatened. Intensified monitoring can help to detect ecological threats and changes earlier, but monitoring resources are limited. Participatory forest monitoring with the help of ＂citizen scientists＂ can provide additional resources for forest monitoring and at the same time help to communicate with stakeholders and the general public. Examples for citizen science projects in the forestry domain can be found but a solid, applicable larger framework to utilise public participation in the area of forest monitoring seems to be lacking. We propose that a better understanding of shared and related topics in citizen science and forest monitoring might be a first step towards such a framework. Methods： We conduct a systematic meta-analysis of 1015 publication abstracts addressing ＂forest monitoring＂ and ＂citizen science＂ in order to explore the combined topical landscape of these subjects. We employ ＇topic modelling an unsupervised probabilistic machine learning method, to identify latent shared topics in the analysed publications. Results： We find that large shared topics exist, but that these are primarily topics that would be expected in scientific publications in general. Common domain-specific topics are under-represented and indicate a topical separation of the two document sets on ＂forest monitoring＂ and ＂citizen science＂ and thus the represented domains. While topic modelling as a method proves to be a scalable and useful analytical tool, we propose that our approach could deliver even more useful data if a larger document set and full-text publications would be available for analysis. Conclusions： We propose that these results, together with the observation of non-shared but related topics, point at under-utilised opportunities for public participation in forest monitoring. Citizen science could be applied as a versatile tool in forest ecosystems monitoring, complementing traditional forest monitoring programmes, assisting early threat recognition and helping to connect forest management with the general public. We conclude that our presented approach should be pursued further as it may aid the understanding and setup of citizen science efforts in the forest monitoring domain.

An Active Deception Defense Model Based on Address Mutation and Fingerprint Camouflage

The static and predictable characteristics of cyber systems give attackers an asymmetric advantage in gathering useful information and launching attacks.To reverse this asymmetric advantage,a new defense idea,called Moving Target Defense(MTD),has been proposed to provide additional selectable measures to complement traditional defense.However,MTD is unable to defeat the sophisticated attacker with fingerprint tracking ability.To overcome this limitation,we go one step beyond and show that the combination of MTD and Deception-based Cyber Defense(DCD)can achieve higher performance than either of them.In particular,we first introduce and formalize a novel attacker model named Scan and Foothold Attack(SFA)based on cyber kill chain.Afterwards,we develop probabilistic models for SFA defenses to provide a deeper analysis of the theoretical effect under different defense strategies.These models quantify attack success probability and the probability that the attacker will be deceived under various conditions,such as the size of address space,and the number of hosts,attack analysis time.Finally,the experimental results show that the actual defense effect of each strategy almost perfectly follows its probabilistic model.Also,the defense strategy of combining address mutation and fingerprint camouflage can achieve a better defense effect than the single address mutation.

Terrain or climate factor dominates vegetation resilience?Evidence from three national parks across different climatic zones in China

Vegetation resilience(VR),providing an objective measure of ecosystem health,has received considerable attention,however,there is still limited understanding of whether the dominant factors differ across different climate zones.We took the three national parks(Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,HTR;Wuyishan National Park,WYS;and Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park,NTL)of China with less human interference as cases,which are distributed in different climatic zones,including tropical,subtropical and temperate monsoon climates,respectively.Then,we employed the probabilistic decay method to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the VR and their natural driving patterns using Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model as well.The results revealed that:(1)from 2000 to 2020,the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of the three national parks fluctuated between 0.800 and 0.960,exhibiting an overall upward trend,with the mean NDVI of NTL(0.923)>HTR(0.899)>WYS(0.823);(2)the positive trend decay time of vegetation exceeded that of negative trend,indicating vegetation gradual recovery of the three national parks since 2012;(3)the VR of HTR was primarily influenced by elevation,aspect,average annual temperature change(AATC),and average annual precipitation change(AAPC);the WYS'VR was mainly affected by elevation,average annual precipitation(AAP),and AAPC;while the terrain factors(elevation and slope)were the main driving factors of VR in NTL;(4)among the main factors influencing the VR changes,the AAPC had the highest proportion in HTR(66.7%),and the AAP occupied the largest area proportion in WYS(80.4%).While in NTL,elevation served as the main driving factor for the VR,encompassing 64.2%of its area.Consequently,our findings indicated that precipitation factors were the main driving force for the VR changes in HTR and WYS national parks,while elevation was the main factors that drove the VR in NTL.Our research has promoted a deeper understanding of the driving mechanism behind the VR.

Predictability of well construction time with multivariate probabilistic approach

Current univariate approach to predict the probability of well construction time has limited accuracy due to the fact that it ignores key factors affecting the time.In this study,we propose a multivariate probabilistic approach to predict the risks of well construction time.It takes advantage of an extended multi-dimensional Bernacchia–Pigolotti kernel density estimation technique and combines probability distributions by means of Monte-Carlo simulations to establish a depth-dependent probabilistic model.This method is applied to predict the durations of drilling phases of 192 wells,most of which are located in the AustraliaAsia region.Despite the challenge of gappy records,our model shows an excellent statistical agreement with the observed data.Our results suggested that the total time is longer than the trouble-free time by at least 4 days,and at most 12 days within the 10%–90% confidence interval.This model allows us to derive the likelihoods of duration for each phase at a certain depth and to generate inputs for training data-driven models,facilitating evaluation and prediction of the risks of an entire drilling operation.

PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR LONG FATIGUE CRACK GROWTH RATES OF LZ50 AXLE STEEL

Experimental study is performed on the probabilistic models for the long fatigue crack growth rates （da/dN） of LZ50 axle steel. An equation for crack growth rate was derived to consider the trend of stress intensity factor range going down to the threshold and the average stress effect. The probabilistic models were presented on the equation. They consist of the probabilistic da/dN-△K relations, the confidence-based da/dN-△K relations, and the probabilistic- and confidence-based da/dN-△K relations. Efforts were made respectively to characterize the effects of probabilistic assessments due to the scattering regularity of test data, the number of sampling, and both of them. These relations can provide wide selections for practice. Analysis on the test data of LZ50 steel indicates that the present models are available and feasible.

An aligned mixture probabilistic principal component analysis for fault detection of multimode chemical processes

A novel approach named aligned mixture probabilistic principal component analysis(AMPPCA) is proposed in this study for fault detection of multimode chemical processes. In order to exploit within-mode correlations,the AMPPCA algorithm first estimates a statistical description for each operating mode by applying mixture probabilistic principal component analysis(MPPCA). As a comparison, the combined MPPCA is employed where monitoring results are softly integrated according to posterior probabilities of the test sample in each local model. For exploiting the cross-mode correlations, which may be useful but are inadvertently neglected due to separately held monitoring approaches, a global monitoring model is constructed by aligning all local models together. In this way, both within-mode and cross-mode correlations are preserved in this integrated space. Finally, the utility and feasibility of AMPPCA are demonstrated through a non-isothermal continuous stirred tank reactor and the TE benchmark process.

A Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Propagation Analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is presented. In the model, the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables, and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshore structural steel under constant amplitude loading. Furthermore, by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted. The tests are conducted to verify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.

Probabilistic Quantile Regression-Based Scour Estimation Considering Foundation Widths and Flood Conditions

Scour has been widely accepted as a key reason for bridge failures.Bridges are susceptible and sensitive to the scour phenomenon,which describes the loss of riverbed sediments around the bridge supports because of flow.The carrying capacity of a deep-water foundation is influenced by the formation of a scour hole,which means that a severe scour can lead to a bridge failure without warning.Most of the current scour predictions are based on deterministic models,while other loads at bridges are usually provided as probabilistic values.To integrate scour factors with other loads in bridge design and research,a quantile regression model was utilized to estimate scour depth.Field data and experimental data from previous studies were collected to build the model.Moreover,scour estimations using the HEC-18 equation and the proposed method were compared.By using the“CCC(Calculate,Confirm,and Check)”procedure,the probabilistic concept could be used to calculate various scour depths with the targeted likelihood according to a specified chance of bridge failure.The study shows that with a sufficiently large and continuously updated database,the proposed model could present reasonable results and provide guidance for scour mitigation.

Establishment of probabilistic model for Salmonella Enteritidis growth and inactivation under acid and osmotic pressure

The growth and survival characteristic of Salmonella Enteritidis under acidic and osmotic conditions were studied.Meanwhile,a probabilistic model based on the theory of cell division and mortality was established to predict the growth or inactivation of S.Enteritidis.The experimental results demonstrated that the growth curves of planktonic and detached cells showed a significant difference(p<0.05)under four conditions,including pH5.0+0.0%NaCl,pH7.0+4.0%NaCl,pH6.0+4.0%NaCl,and pH5.0+4.0%NaCl.And the established primary and secondary models could describe the growth of S.enteritis well by estimating four mathematics evaluation indexes,including determination coefficient(R2),root mean square error(RMSE),accuracy factor(Af)and bias factor(Bf).Moreover,sequential treatment of 15%NaCl stress followed by pH 4.5 stress was the best condition to inactivate S.Enteritidis in 10 h at 25◦C.The probabilistic model with Logistical or Weibullian form could also predict the inactivation of S.Enteritidis well,thus realize the unification of predictive model to some extent or generalization of inactivation model.Furthermore,the primary 4-parameter probabilistic model or generalized inactivation model had slightly higher applicability and reliability to describe the growth or inactivation of S.Enteritidis than Baranyi model or exponential inactivation model within the experimental range in this study.

VIDEO MULTI-TARGET TRACKING BASED ON PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICAL MODEL

In the technique of video multi-target tracking,the common particle filter can not deal well with uncertain relations among multiple targets.To solve this problem,many researchers use data association method to reduce the multi-target uncertainty.However,the traditional data association method is difficult to track accurately when the target is occluded.To remove the occlusion in the video,combined with the theory of data association,this paper adopts the probabilistic graphical model for multi-target modeling and analysis of the targets relationship in the particle filter framework.Ex-perimental results show that the proposed algorithm can solve the occlusion problem better compared with the traditional algorithm.

Probabilistic Modeling of Oil Spills at the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba Using Petromar-3D Model

This article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goal, several computing and statistical tools were used to develop the probabilistic modeling solution based in the methodology of Guo. Solution was implemented using a databases approach and SQL language. A case study is presented which is based on a hypothetical spill in a location inside the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba. Important outputs and products of probabilistic modeling were obtained, which are very useful for decision-makers and operators in charge to face oil spill accidents and prepare contingency plans to minimize its effects. In order to study the relationship between the initial trajectory and the arrival of hydrocarbons spills to the coast, a new approach is introduced as an incoming perspective for modeling. It consists in storage in databases the direction of movement of the oil slick at the first 24 hours. The probabilistic modeling solution presented is of great importance for hazard studies of oil spills in Cuban coastal areas.

Probabilistic 2D Shape Retrieval and Applications via the Method of Hurwitz-Radon Matrices

Artificial intelligence and computer vision need methods for 2D （two-dimensional） shape retrieval having discrete set of boundary points. A novel method of MHR （Hurwitz-Radon Matrices） is used in shape modeling. Proposed method is based on the family of MHR which possess columns composed of orthogonal vectors. 2D curve is retrieved via different functions as probability distribution functions： sine, cosine, tangent, logarithm, exponent, arcsin, arccos, arctan and power function. Created from the family of N-1 MHR and completed with the identical matrix, system of matrices is orthogonal only for dimensions N = 2, 4 or 8. Orthogonality of columns and rows is very significant for stability and high precision of calculations. MHR method is interpolating the function point by point without using any formula of function. Main features of MHR method are： accuracy of curve reconstruction depending on number of nodes and method of choosing nodes, interpolation of L points of the curve is connected with the computational cost of rank O（L）, MHR interpolation is not a linear interpolation.

Data Analysis of Multiplex Sequencing at SOLiD Platform:A Probabilistic Approach to Characterization and Reliability Increase

New sequencing technologies such as Illumina/Solexa, SOLiD/ABI, and 454/Roche, revolutionized the biological researches. In this context, the SOLiD platform has a particular sequencing type, known as multiplex run, which enables the sequencing of several samples in a single run. It implies in cost reduction and simplifies the analysis of related samples. Meanwhile, this sequencing type requires an additional filtering step to ensure the reliability of the results. Thus, we propose in this paper a probabilistic model which considers the intrinsic characteristics of each sequencing to characterize multiplex runs and filter low-quality data, increasing the data analysis reliability of multiplex sequencing performed on SOLiD. The results show that the proposed model proves to be satisfactory due to: 1) identification of faults in the sequencing process;2) adaptation and development of new protocols for sample preparation;3) the assignment of a degree of confidence to the data generated;and 4) guiding a filtering process, without discarding useful sequences in an arbitrary manner.

A practical framework for performance-based reliability analysis of subway stations based on a faultestructure combined system

It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.

Pavement performance model for road maintenance and repair planning: a review of predictive techniques

This paper provides a review of predictive analytics for roads,identifying gaps and limitations in current methodologies.It explores the implications of these limitations on accuracy and application,while also discussing how advanced predictive analytics can address these challenges.The article acknowledges the transformative shift brought about by technological advancements and increased computational capabilities.The degradation of pavement surfaces due to increased road users has resulted in safety and comfort issues.Researchers have conducted studies to assess pavement condition and predict future changes in pavement structure.Pavement Management Systems are crucial in developing prediction performance models that estimate pavement condition and degradation severity over time.Machine learning algorithms,artificial neural networks,and regression models have been used,with strengths and weaknesses.Researchers generally agree on their accuracy in estimating pavement condition considering factors like traffic,pavement age,and weather conditions.However,it is important to carefully select an appropriate prediction model to achieve a high-quality prediction performance system.Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each model enables informed decisions for implementing prediction models that suit specific needs.The advancement of prediction models,coupled with innovative technologies,will contribute to improved pavement management and the overall safety and comfort of road users.

A probabilistic model based on the peak-over-threshold approach for risk assessment of airport controllers’performance

Airport tower control plays an instrumental role in ensuring airport safety.However,obtaining objective,quantitative safety evaluations is challenging due to the unavailability of pertinent human operation data.This study introduces a probabilistic model that combines aircraft dynamics and the peak-over-threshold(POT)approach to assess the safety performance of airport controllers.We applied the POT approach to model reaction times extracted from a radiotelephony dataset via a voice event detection algorithm.The model couples the risks of tower control and aircraft operation to analyze the influence of human factors.Using data from radiotele-phony communications and the Base of Aircraft Data(BADA)database,we compared risk levels across scenarios.Our findings revealed heightened airport control risks under low demand(0.374)compared to typical conditions(0.197).Furthermore,the risks associated with coupling under low demand exceeded those under typical de-mand,with the final approach stage presenting the highest risk(4.929×107).Our model underscores the significance of human factors and the implications of mental disconnects between pilots and controllers for safety risks.Collectively,these consistent findings affirm the reliability of our probabilistic model as an evaluative tool for evaluating the safety performance of airport tower controllers.The results also illuminate the path toward quantitative real-time safety evaluations for airport controllers within the industry.We recommend that airport regulators focus on the performance of airport controllers,particularly during the final approach stage.

A probabilistic generative model for tracking multi-knowledge concept mastery probability

Knowledge tracing aims to track students’knowledge status over time to predict students’future performance accurately.In a real environment,teachers expect knowledge tracing models to provide the interpretable result of knowledge status.Markov chain-based knowledge tracing(MCKT)models,such as Bayesian Knowledge Tracing,can track knowledge concept mastery probability over time.However,as the number of tracked knowledge concepts increases,the time complexity of MCKT predicting student performance increases exponentially(also called explaining away problem).When the number of tracked knowledge concepts is large,we cannot utilize MCKT to track knowledge concept mastery probability over time.In addition,the existing MCKT models only consider the relationship between students’knowledge status and problems when modeling students’responses but ignore the relationship between knowledge concepts in the same problem.To address these challenges,we propose an inTerpretable pRobAbilistiC gEnerative moDel(TRACED),which can track students’numerous knowledge concepts mastery probabilities over time.To solve explain away problem,we design long and short-term memory(LSTM)-based networks to approximate the posterior distribution,predict students’future performance,and propose a heuristic algorithm to train LSTMs and probabilistic graphical model jointly.To better model students’exercise responses,we proposed a logarithmic linear model with three interactive strategies,which models students’exercise responses by considering the relationship among students’knowledge status,knowledge concept,and problems.We conduct experiments with four real-world datasets in three knowledge-driven tasks.The experimental results show that TRACED outperforms existing knowledge tracing methods in predicting students’future performance and can learn the relationship among students,knowledge concepts,and problems from students’exercise sequences.We also conduct several case studies.The case studies show that TRACED exhibits excellent interpretability and thus has the potential for personalized automatic feedback in the real-world educational environment.

Effect of seismic retrofit of bridges on transportation networks

The objective of this research is to determine the effect earthquakes have on the performance of transportation network systems.To do this,bridge fragility curves,expressed as a function of peak ground acceleration(PGA)and peak ground velocity(PGV),were developed.Network damage was evaluated under the 1994 Northridge earthquake and scenario earthquakes.A probabilistic model was developed to determine the effect of repair of bridge damage on the improvement of the network performance as days passed after the event.As an example,the system performance degradation measured in terms of an index,'Drivers Delay,'is calculated for the Los Angeles area transportation system,and losses due to Drivers Delay with and without retrofit were estimated.

Prediction of rockhead using a hybrid N-XGBoost machine learning framework

The spatial information of rockhead is crucial for the design and construction of tunneling or underground excavation.Although the conventional site investigation methods(i.e.borehole drilling) could provide local engineering geological information,the accurate prediction of the rockhead position with limited borehole data is still challenging due to its spatial variation and great uncertainties involved.With the development of computer science,machine learning(ML) has been proved to be a promising way to avoid subjective judgments by human beings and to establish complex relationships with mega data automatically.However,few studies have been reported on the adoption of ML models for the prediction of the rockhead position.In this paper,we proposed a robust probabilistic ML model for predicting the rockhead distribution using the spatial geographic information.The framework of the natural gradient boosting(NGBoost) algorithm combined with the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)is used as the basic learner.The XGBoost model was also compared with some other ML models such as the gradient boosting regression tree(GBRT),the light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM),the multivariate linear regression(MLR),the artificial neural network(ANN),and the support vector machine(SVM).The results demonstrate that the XGBoost algorithm,the core algorithm of the probabilistic NXGBoost model,outperformed the other conventional ML models with a coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.89 and a root mean squared error(RMSE) of 5.8 m for the prediction of rockhead position based on limited borehole data.The probabilistic N-XGBoost model not only achieved a higher prediction accuracy,but also provided a predictive estimation of the uncertainty.Thus,the proposed N-XGBoost probabilistic model has the potential to be used as a reliable and effective ML algorithm for the prediction of rockhead position in rock and geotechnical engineering.