Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of...Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of the distributions are then used to determine a final distribution for decision purposes as in buy,sell,or hold.展开更多
A probability assessment framework is outlined that enables decision-makers to determine a probability distribution over possible events or scenarios they could face in the future.The methodology of the analytic hiera...A probability assessment framework is outlined that enables decision-makers to determine a probability distribution over possible events or scenarios they could face in the future.The methodology of the analytic hierarchy process can be utilized in the procedures.Bayesian revision accounting for new developments can be used to calculate posterior probabilities using the same procedures.展开更多
The methodology presented below can be viewed as a means of quantifying intuitions,guesses,hunches etc.,about relative likelihoods for alternative events leading to a“ballpark”probability distribution.Different intu...The methodology presented below can be viewed as a means of quantifying intuitions,guesses,hunches etc.,about relative likelihoods for alternative events leading to a“ballpark”probability distribution.Different intuitions etc.,will lead to different“ballpark”distributions.A final distribution can then be formulated by the decision-maker using other information as in minimum or maximum collective probabilities for groups of events or similar assessments.Final judgments may be idiosyncratic to the decision-maker and not easily replicable in an algorithm.展开更多
Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an i...Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an initial probability distribution which may then be adjusted to reflect additional or new information.The trade-off between minimal computation and maximum information is examined.展开更多
Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme vol...Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme volatility over time requiring frequent updating.Pairwise judgments by the decision-maker form the basis for the simple calculations that could replace traditional revision of prior distributions.展开更多
A probability-based damage tolerance methodology has been proposed to improve the recognition of material anomalies, especially hard alpha(TiN) anomalies for aeroengine rotor disks. A key input to this method is hard ...A probability-based damage tolerance methodology has been proposed to improve the recognition of material anomalies, especially hard alpha(TiN) anomalies for aeroengine rotor disks. A key input to this method is hard alpha anomaly distribution, which reflects the occurrence rate and size of anomalies present in the finished part material of titanium rotors. Since anomalies rarely occur naturally, an experimental method is proposed to obtain the anomaly distribution for titanium alloy aeroengine disks to reflect and equivalently replace the manufacturing development in titanium industry. In general, the anomaly distribution information can be divided into two parts: the Probability of Detection(POD) curve and the detected anomaly distribution, which contains the size and frequency data of the detected anomalies. The distribution can be established based on several appropriate assumptions and derivation steps with different confidence levels of POD curves and detected anomaly distributions. In this case, the distribution can be obtained in a relatively short time as a key input to the probability-based damage tolerance methodology. Then the Probability of Failure(POF) can be calculated, and the value is found to vary with different confidence levels. On this basis, the conservative estimated POF can be obtained in conjunction with confidence levels.展开更多
文摘Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of the distributions are then used to determine a final distribution for decision purposes as in buy,sell,or hold.
文摘A probability assessment framework is outlined that enables decision-makers to determine a probability distribution over possible events or scenarios they could face in the future.The methodology of the analytic hierarchy process can be utilized in the procedures.Bayesian revision accounting for new developments can be used to calculate posterior probabilities using the same procedures.
文摘The methodology presented below can be viewed as a means of quantifying intuitions,guesses,hunches etc.,about relative likelihoods for alternative events leading to a“ballpark”probability distribution.Different intuitions etc.,will lead to different“ballpark”distributions.A final distribution can then be formulated by the decision-maker using other information as in minimum or maximum collective probabilities for groups of events or similar assessments.Final judgments may be idiosyncratic to the decision-maker and not easily replicable in an algorithm.
文摘Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an initial probability distribution which may then be adjusted to reflect additional or new information.The trade-off between minimal computation and maximum information is examined.
文摘Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme volatility over time requiring frequent updating.Pairwise judgments by the decision-maker form the basis for the simple calculations that could replace traditional revision of prior distributions.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Civil Aviation Administration of China(No.U1833109)the Innovation Team of Complex System Safety and Airworthiness of Aero Engine from the Co-Innovation Center for Advanced Aeroengine of China。
文摘A probability-based damage tolerance methodology has been proposed to improve the recognition of material anomalies, especially hard alpha(TiN) anomalies for aeroengine rotor disks. A key input to this method is hard alpha anomaly distribution, which reflects the occurrence rate and size of anomalies present in the finished part material of titanium rotors. Since anomalies rarely occur naturally, an experimental method is proposed to obtain the anomaly distribution for titanium alloy aeroengine disks to reflect and equivalently replace the manufacturing development in titanium industry. In general, the anomaly distribution information can be divided into two parts: the Probability of Detection(POD) curve and the detected anomaly distribution, which contains the size and frequency data of the detected anomalies. The distribution can be established based on several appropriate assumptions and derivation steps with different confidence levels of POD curves and detected anomaly distributions. In this case, the distribution can be obtained in a relatively short time as a key input to the probability-based damage tolerance methodology. Then the Probability of Failure(POF) can be calculated, and the value is found to vary with different confidence levels. On this basis, the conservative estimated POF can be obtained in conjunction with confidence levels.
