Prediction and Output Estimation of Pattern Moving in Non-Newtonian Mechanical Systems Based on Probability Density Evolution

A prediction framework based on the evolution of pattern motion probability density is proposed for the output prediction and estimation problem of non-Newtonian mechanical systems,assuming that the system satisfies the generalized Lipschitz condition.As a complex nonlinear system primarily governed by statistical laws rather than Newtonian mechanics,the output of non-Newtonian mechanics systems is difficult to describe through deterministic variables such as state variables,which poses difficulties in predicting and estimating the system’s output.In this article,the temporal variation of the system is described by constructing pattern category variables,which are non-deterministic variables.Since pattern category variables have statistical attributes but not operational attributes,operational attributes are assigned to them by posterior probability density,and a method for analyzing their motion laws using probability density evolution is proposed.Furthermore,a data-driven form of pattern motion probabilistic density evolution prediction method is designed by combining pseudo partial derivative(PPD),achieving prediction of the probability density satisfying the system’s output uncertainty.Based on this,the final prediction estimation of the system’s output value is realized by minimum variance unbiased estimation.Finally,a corresponding PPD estimation algorithm is designed using an extended state observer(ESO)to estimate the parameters to be estimated in the proposed prediction method.The effectiveness of the parameter estimation algorithm and prediction method is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and the accuracy of the algorithm is verified by two numerical simulation examples.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.

Probabilistic Response and Short-Term Extreme Load Estimation of Offshore Monopile Wind Turbine Towers by Probability Density Evolution Method

A new analysis framework based on probability density evolution method(PDEM)and its Chebyshev collocation solution are introduced to predict the dynamic response and short-term extreme load of offshore wind turbine(OWT)towers subjected to random sea state.With regard to the stochastic responses,random function method is employed to generate samples of sea elevation,the probability density evolution equation(PDEE)is solved to calculate time-variant probability density functions of structural responses.For the probabilistic load estimation,a FAST model of NREL 5MW offshore turbine is established to obtain samples of bending moment at the tower base.The equivalent extreme event theory is used to construct a virtual stochastic process(VSP)to assess the short-term extreme load.The results indicate that the proposed approach can predict time-variant probability density functions of the structural responses,and shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.Additionally,the predicted short-term extreme load can capture the fluctuation at the tail of the extreme value distribution,thus is more rational than results from the typical distribution models.Overall,the proposed method shows good adaptation,precision and efficiency for the dynamic response analysis and load estimation of OWT towers.

Typhoon hazard assessment at the site-specific scale based on the probability density evolution method and its application on the southeast coast of China

Herein, a typhoon hazard assessment method at the site-specific scale is proposed. This method integrates the nonlinear threedimensional wind field model and the probability density evolution method. At the site-specific scale, the track of a typhoon near the engineering site is approximated via a straight line. The wind field model is utilized to calculate the wind speed at the surface given the gradient wind field at the top of the boundary layer. A comparison between the simulated and observed wind histories for Typhoon Hagupit that made landfall in Guangdong Province demonstrates the fidelity of the wind field model. The probability density evolution method is utilized to calculate the propagation of the randomness from the basic random variables toward the extremities of the typhoon surface wind. To model the probability distribution of the basic random variables, several candidate distributions are considered to fit the observations. Akaike information criterion and Anderson-Darling distance are used for selecting the preferred probability distribution model. The adequacy of the probability density evolution method in assessing typhoon hazards is verified by comparing the results with those generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The typhoon wind hazards estimated by the present study are compared with those proposed by other studies and the design code, and the differences are analyzed and discussed. The results of the proposed method provide the reasonable probabilistic model for the assessment of the structural reliability and the improvement of community resilience in the typhoon-prone areas.

Joint probability density function of the stochastic responses of nonlinear structures

The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.

A novel refined dynamic model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system for random vibration and running safety assessment

Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.

Uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion based on coupled mechanism—motor dynamic model for ammunition delivery system

In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.

Extreme value distribution and reliability of nonlinear stochastic structures

A new approach to evaluate the extreme value distribution （EVD） of the response and reliability of general multi-DOF nonlinear stochastic structures is proposed. The approach is based on the recently developed probability density evolution method, which enables the instantaneous probability density functions of the stochastic responses to be captured. In the proposed method, a virtual stochastic process is first constructed to satisfy the condition that the extreme value of the response equals the value of the constructed process at a certain instant of time. The probability density evolution method is then applied to evaluate the instantaneous probability density function of the response, yielding the EVD. The reliability is therefore available through a simple integration over the safe domain. A numerical algorithm is developed using the Number Theoretical Method to select the discretized representative points. Further, a hyper-ball is imposed to sieve the points from the preceding point set in the hypercube. In the numerical examples, the EVD of random variables is evaluated and compared with the analytical solution. A frame structure is analyzed to capture the EVD of the response and the dynamic reliability. The investigations indicate that the proposed approach provides reasonable accuracy and efficiency.

Probabilistic model and analysis of coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system with uncertain structural parameters

Random dynamic responses caused by the uncertainty of structural parameters of the coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system under train loading can pose safety concerns to the train operation.This paper introduced a computational model for analyzing probabilistic dynamic responses of three-dimensional(3D)coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system(TBTSS),where the coupling effects of uncertain rail irregularities,stiffness and damping properties of ballast and subgrade layers were simultaneously considered.The number theoretical method(NTM)was employed to design discrete points for the multi-dimensional stochastic parameters.The time-histories of stochastic dynamic vibrations of the TBSS with systematically uncertain structural parameters were calculated accurately and efficiently by employing the probability density evolution method(PDEM).The model-predicted results were consistent with those by the Monte Carlo simulation method.A sensitivity study was performed to assess the relative importance of those uncertain structural parameters,based on which a case study was presented to explore the stochastic probability evolution mechanism of such train-ballasted track-subgrade system.

Serviceability evaluation of water supply networks under seismic loads utilizing their operational physical mechanism

The serviceability of water supply networks(WSNs)under seismic loads has significant importance for estimating the probable losses and the impact of diminished functionality on affected communities.The innovation presented in this paper is suggesting a new strategy to evaluate the seismic serviceability of WSNs,utilizing their operational physical mechanism.On one hand,this method can obtain the seismic serviceability of each node as well as entire WSNs.On the other hand,this method can dynamically reflect the propagation of randomness from ground motions to WSNs.First,a finite element model is established to capture the seismic response of buried pipe networks,and a leakage model is suggested to obtain the leakage area of WSNs.Second,the transient flow analysis of WSNs with or without leakage is derived to obtain dynamic water flow and pressure.Third,the seismic serviceability of WSNs is analyzed based on the probability density evolution method(PDEM).Finally,the seismic serviceability of a real WSN in Mianzhu city is assessed to illustrate the method.The case study shows that randomness from the ground motions can obviously affect the leakage state and the probability density of the nodal head during earthquakes.

Orthogonal expansion of ground motion and PDEM-based seismic response analysis of nonlinear structures

This paper introduces an orthogonal expansion method for general stochastic processes. In the method, a normalized orthogonal function of time variable t is first introduced to carry out the decomposition of a stochastic process and then a correlated matrix decomposition technique, which transforms a correlated random vector into a vector of standard uncorrelated random variables, is used to complete a double orthogonal decomposition of the stochastic processes. Considering the relationship between the Hartley transform and Fourier transform of a real-valued function, it is suggested that the first orthogonal expansion in the above process is carried out using the Hartley basis function instead of the trigonometric basis function in practical applications. The seismic ground motion is investigated using the above method. In order to capture the main probabilistic characteristics of the seismic ground motion, it is proposed to directly carry out the orthogonal expansion of the seismic displacements. The case study shows that the proposed method is feasible to represent the seismic ground motion with only a few random variables. In the second part of the paper, the probability density evolution method （PDEM） is employed to study the stochastic response of nonlinear structures subjected to earthquake excitations. In the PDEM, a completely uncoupled one-dimensional partial differential equation, the generalized density evolution equation, plays a central role in governing the stochastic seismic responses of the nonlinear structure. The solution to this equation will yield the instantaneous probability density function of the responses. Computational algorithms to solve the probability density evolution equation are described. An example, which deals with a nonlinear frame structure subjected to stochastic ground motions, is illustrated to validate the above approach.

Dynamic Reliability Evaluation of Double-Layer Cylindrical Latticed Shell under Multi-Support Excitations

To overcome the excessive computational cost and/or bad accuracy of traditional approaches,the probabilistic density evolution method(PDEM) is introduced.The dynamic reliability of a double-layer cylindrical latticed shell is evaluated by applying PDEM and Monte Carlo Method(MCM) respectively,and four apparent wave velocities(100 m/s,500 m/s,800 m/s and 1 200 m/s) and five thresholds(0.1 m,0.2 m,0.3 m,0.4 m and 0.5 m) are taken into consideration.Only the difference between threshold and maximal deformation...

Probabilistic Life Calculation Method of NdFeB Based on Brittle Fatigue Damage Model

This paper proposes a probabilistic life calculation method of NdFeB based on brittle fatigue damage model.Firstly,Zhu-Wang-Tang(ZWT)constitutive model considering strain rate is established,and based on this,a numerical co-simulation model for NdFeB life calculation is constructed.The life distribution diagram of NdFeB under different stress levels is obtained after simulation.Secondly,a new model of brittle fatigue damage based on brittle damage mechanism is proposed.Then the parameters in the model are identified according to the life distribution diagram of NdFeB and the parameter distribution of the damage evolution model when applied to NdFeB is obtained.Finally,the probability density evolution equation of NdFeB life calculation is established and solved using the probability density evolution method.Probability density function(PDF)of NdFeB life under different stress levels is obtained and provides theoretical basis for the reliability of NdFeB in engineering applications.

Dimension-reduction of FPK equation via equivalent drift coefficient

The Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov（FPK） equation plays an essential role in nonlinear stochastic dynamics. However, neither analytical nor numerical solution is available as yet to FPK equations for high-dimensional systems. In the present paper, the dimension reduction of FPK equation for systems excited by additive white noise is studied. In the proposed method, probability density evolution method（PDEM）, in which a decoupled generalized density evolution equation is solved, is employed to reproduce the equivalent flux of probability for the marginalized FPK equation. A further step of constructing an equivalent coefficient finally completes the dimension-reduction of FPK equation. Examples are illustrated to verify the proposed method.

Nonparametric probabilistic seismic demand model and fragility analysis of subway stations using deep learning techniques

A novel and computationally efficient method for developing a nonparametric probabilistic seismic demand model(PSDM)is pro-posed to conduct the fragility analysis of subway stations accurately and efficiently.The probability density evolution method(PDEM)is used to calculate the evolutionary probability density function of demand measure(DM)without resort to any assumptions of the dis-tribution pattern of DM.To reduce the computational cost of a large amount of nonlinear time history analyses(NLTHAs)in the PDEM,the one-dimensional convolutional neural network(1D-CNN)is used as a surrogate model to predict the time history of struc-tural seismic responses in a data-driven fashion.The proposed nonparametric PSDM is adopted to conduct the fragility analysis of a two-story and three-span subway station,and the results are compared with those from two existing parametric PSDMs,i.e.,two-parameter lognormal distribution model and probabilistic neural network(PNN)-based PSDM.The results show that the PDEM-based PSDM has the best performance in describing the probability distribution of seismic responses of underground structures.Differ-ent from the fragility curves,the time-dependent fragility surface of the subway station shows how the exceedance probability of damage state changes over time.It can be used to estimate the escape time and thus the number of casualties in an earthquake,which are impor-tant indexes when conducting the resilience-based seismic evaluation.

A random medium model for simulation of concrete failure

A random medium model is developed to describe damage and failure of concrete.In the first place,to simulate the evolving cracks in a mesoscale,the concrete is randomly discretized as irregular finite elements.Moreover,the cohesive elements are inserted into the adjacency of finite elements as the possible cracking paths.The spatial variation of the material properties is considered using a 2-D random field,and the stochastic harmonic function method is adopted to simulate the sample of the fracture energy random field in the analysis.Then,the simulations of concrete specimens are given to describe the different failure modes of concrete under tension.Finally,based on the simulating results,the probability density distributions of the stress-strain curves are solved by the probability density evolution methods.Thus,the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model are verified in both the sample level and collection level.