The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in t...The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.展开更多
Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake predict...Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.展开更多
The fourth-order cumulant of zero mean Gaussian distribution noise always equals to zero theoretically. In practice the probability density of noise and reverberation is the key problem to performance of the fourth-or...The fourth-order cumulant of zero mean Gaussian distribution noise always equals to zero theoretically. In practice the probability density of noise and reverberation is the key problem to performance of the fourth-order cumulant beamforming technique. In this paper, the array gain functions of the fourth-order cumulant beamforming are deducted considering the instantaneous amplitude distribution of the ambient sea noise and bottom reverberation respectively. And the relationships are determined between array gain and the factors including the number of the array elements, the fourth-order and second-order statistical properties of the noise and reverberation, and the input signal-to-noise ratio. It is also verified that there is a critical signal-to-interference ratio and the fourth-order cumulant beamforming can obtain higher gain and resolution than the conventional beamforming method when the ratio is larger than it. The results of experiment data processing demonstrate that the gain and the resolution of the fourth-order cumulant beamforming coincide with the theoretic.展开更多
文摘The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.
文摘Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.
基金supported by the national Natural Science Foundation of China(51279033)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province,China(F201346)
文摘The fourth-order cumulant of zero mean Gaussian distribution noise always equals to zero theoretically. In practice the probability density of noise and reverberation is the key problem to performance of the fourth-order cumulant beamforming technique. In this paper, the array gain functions of the fourth-order cumulant beamforming are deducted considering the instantaneous amplitude distribution of the ambient sea noise and bottom reverberation respectively. And the relationships are determined between array gain and the factors including the number of the array elements, the fourth-order and second-order statistical properties of the noise and reverberation, and the input signal-to-noise ratio. It is also verified that there is a critical signal-to-interference ratio and the fourth-order cumulant beamforming can obtain higher gain and resolution than the conventional beamforming method when the ratio is larger than it. The results of experiment data processing demonstrate that the gain and the resolution of the fourth-order cumulant beamforming coincide with the theoretic.
