This study presents a danger estimation system to prevent accidents among infants. A video camera positioned above the infant's crib captures video. The proposed system can monitor the behavior of infants aged zero t...This study presents a danger estimation system to prevent accidents among infants. A video camera positioned above the infant's crib captures video. The proposed system can monitor the behavior of infants aged zero to six months. If there is a change in behavior or any other unusual occurrence, the system alerts the person responsible to attend to the baby immediately. The proposed system operates in three phases, which are foreground color model (FC model) construction, infant detection, and degree of danger analysis. During FC model construction, the foreground color histogram is created iteratively; the background image does not have to be constructed first. A motion-history image (MHI) is also obtained based on the motion of the infant. The color and motion information supplied by the FC model and the MHI are combined to detect the infant, who is regarded as the foreground object in the input frame. Moreover, six features of infant behavior are extracted from the detected infant to measure the degree of danger faced by the infant, and the result is used to warn the baby-sitter if needed. Experimental results show that the proposed method is robust and efficient.展开更多
In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems...In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.展开更多
The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields ...The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.展开更多
A probability-based analytical model for predicting the seismic residual deformation of bilinear single-degreeof-freedom(SDOF)systems with a kinematic/Takeda hysteretic model is proposed based on a statistical analysi...A probability-based analytical model for predicting the seismic residual deformation of bilinear single-degreeof-freedom(SDOF)systems with a kinematic/Takeda hysteretic model is proposed based on a statistical analysis of the nonlinear time history response,and the proposed model explicitly incorporates the influence of record-to-record variability.In addition,the influence of primary parameters such as the natural vibration period,relative yield force coefficient,stiffness ratio and peak ground acceleration(PGA)on the seismic residual/maximum deformation ratio(dR/dm)are investigated.The results show that significant dispersion of the dR/dm ratio is observed for SDOF systems under different seismic ground motion records,and the dispersion degree is influenced by the model parameters and record-to-record variability.The statistical distribution of the dR/dm results of SDOF systems can be described by a lognormal distribution.Finally,a case study for seismic residual deformation and reparability assessment of the bridge structure designed with a single pier is carried out to illustrate the detailed analytical procedure of the probability-based analytical model proposed in this study.展开更多
The inconsistency of lithium-ion cells degrades battery performance,lifetime and even safety.The complexity of the cell reaction mechanism causes an irregular asymmetrical distribution of various cell parameters,such ...The inconsistency of lithium-ion cells degrades battery performance,lifetime and even safety.The complexity of the cell reaction mechanism causes an irregular asymmetrical distribution of various cell parameters,such as capacity and internal resistance,among others.In this study,the Newman electrochemical model was used to simulate the 1 C discharge curves of 100 LiMn2 O4 pouch cells with parameter variations typically produced in manufacturing processes,and the three-parameter Weibull probability model was used to analyze the dispersion and symmetry of the resulting discharge voltage distributions.The results showed that the dispersion of the voltage distribution was related to the rate of decrease in the discharge voltage,and the symmetry was related to the change in the rate of voltage decrease.The effect of the cells’capacity dominated the voltage distribution thermodynamically during discharge,and the phase transformation process significantly skewed the voltage distribution.The effects of the ohmic drop and polarization voltage on the voltage distribution were primarily kinetic.The presence of current returned the right-skewed voltage distribution caused by phase transformation to a more symmetrical distribution.Thus,the Weibull parameters elucidated the electrochemical behavior during the discharge process,and this method can guide the prediction and control of cell inconsistency,as well as detection and control strategies for cell management systems.展开更多
The behavior of quantum cellular automata (QCA) under the influence of a stray charge is quantified. A new time-independent switching paradigm, a probability model of the double-dot system, is developed. Superiority...The behavior of quantum cellular automata (QCA) under the influence of a stray charge is quantified. A new time-independent switching paradigm, a probability model of the double-dot system, is developed. Superiority in releasing the calculation operation is presented by the probability model compared to previous stray charge analysis utilizing ICHA or full-basis calculation. Simulation results illustrate that there is a 186-nm-wide region surrounding a QCA wire where a stray charge will cause the target cell to switch unsuccessfully. The failure is exhibited by two new states' dominating the target cell. Therefore, a bistable saturation model is no longer applicable for stray charge analysis.展开更多
Line-of-sight(LoS)probability prediction is critical to the performance optimization of wireless communication systems.However,it is challenging to predict the LoS probability of air-to-ground(A2G)communication scenar...Line-of-sight(LoS)probability prediction is critical to the performance optimization of wireless communication systems.However,it is challenging to predict the LoS probability of air-to-ground(A2G)communication scenarios,because the altitude of unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)or other aircraft varies from dozens of meters to several kilometers.This paper presents an altitude-dependent empirical LoS probability model for A2G scenarios.Before estimating the model parameters,we design a K-nearest neighbor(KNN)based strategy to classify LoS and non-LoS(NLoS)paths.Then,a two-layer back propagation neural network(BPNN)based parameter estimation method is developed to build the relationship between every model parameter and the UAV altitude.Simulation results show that the results obtained using our proposed model has good consistency with the ray tracing(RT)data,the measurement data,and the results obtained using the standard models.Our model can also provide wider applicable altitudes than other LoS probability models,and thus can be applied to different altitudes under various A2G scenarios.展开更多
In this paper, a new statistic model named Center-Distance Continuous Probability Model (CDCPM) for speech recognition is described, which is based on Center-Distance Normal (CDN) distribution. In a CDCPM, the probabi...In this paper, a new statistic model named Center-Distance Continuous Probability Model (CDCPM) for speech recognition is described, which is based on Center-Distance Normal (CDN) distribution. In a CDCPM, the probability transition matrix is omitted, and the observation probability density function (PDF) in each state is in the form of embedded multiple-model (EMM) based on the Nearest Neighbour rule. The experimental results on two giant real-world Chinese speech databases and a real-world continuous-manner 2000 phrase system show that this model is a powerful one. Also,a distance measure for CDCPMs is proposed which is based on the Bayesian minimum classification error (MCE) discrimination.展开更多
There exists model uncertainty of probability of detection for inspecting ship structures with nondestructive inspection techniques. Based on a comparison of several existing probability of detection (POD) models, a n...There exists model uncertainty of probability of detection for inspecting ship structures with nondestructive inspection techniques. Based on a comparison of several existing probability of detection (POD) models, a new probability of detection model is proposed for the updating of crack size distribution. Furthermore, the theoretical derivation shows that most existing probability of detection models are special cases of the new probability of detection model. The least square method is adopted for determining the values of parameters in the new POD model. This new model is also compared with other existing probability of detection models. The results indicate that the new probability of detection model can fit the inspection data better. This new probability of detection model is then applied to the analysis of the problem of crack size updating for offshore structures. The Bayesian updating method is used to analyze the effect of probability of detection models on the posterior distribution of a crack size. The results show that different probabilities of detection models generate different posterior distributions of a crack size for offshore structures.展开更多
Turbulent gas-particle flows are studied by a kinetic description using a prob- ability density function (PDF). Unlike other investigators deriving the particle Reynolds stress equations using the PDF equations, the...Turbulent gas-particle flows are studied by a kinetic description using a prob- ability density function (PDF). Unlike other investigators deriving the particle Reynolds stress equations using the PDF equations, the particle PDF transport equations are di- rectly solved either using a finite-difference method for two-dimensional (2D) problems or using a Monte-Carlo (MC) method for three-dimensional (3D) problems. The proposed differential stress model together with the PDF (DSM-PDF) is used to simulate turbulent swirling gas-particle flows. The simulation results are compared with the experimental results and the second-order moment (SOM) two-phase modeling results. All of these simulation results are in agreement with the experimental results, implying that the PDF approach validates the SOM two-phase turbulence modeling. The PDF model with the SOM-MC method is used to simulate evaporating gas-droplet flows, and the simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental results.展开更多
Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake predict...Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.展开更多
In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main ...In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main objective is to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the methods in separation of anomalies on the shear zone gold mineralization.For this purpose,samples were taken from the secondary lithogeochemical environment(stream sediment samples)on the gold mineralization in Saqqez,NW of Iran.Interpretation of the histograms and diagrams showed that the MPD is capable of identifying two phases of mineralization.The fractal method could separate only one phase of change based on the fractal dimension with high concentration areas of the Au element.The spatial analysis showed two mixed subpopulations after U=0 and another subpopulation with very high U values.The MPD analysis followed spatial analysis,which shows the detail of the variations.Six mineralized zones detected from local geochemical exploration results were used for validating the methods mentioned above.The MPD method was able to identify the anomalous areas higher than 90%,whereas the two other methods identified 60%(maximum)of the anomalous areas.The raw data without any estimation for the concentration was used by the MPD method using aminimum of calculations to determine the threshold values.Therefore,the MPD method is more robust than the other methods.The spatial analysis identified the detail soft hegeological and mineralization events that were affected in the study area.MPD is recommended as the best,and the spatial U-analysis is the next reliable method to be used.The fractal method could show more detail of the events and variations in the area with asymmetrical grid net and a higher density of sampling or at the detailed exploration stage.展开更多
In this paper, a new car-following model is presented, taking into account the anticipation of potential lane changing by the leading vehicle. The stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stabi...In this paper, a new car-following model is presented, taking into account the anticipation of potential lane changing by the leading vehicle. The stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The modified Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation is constructed and solved, and three types of traffic flow in the headway-sensitivity space, namely stable, metastable and unstable ones, are classified. Both the analytical and simu- lation results show that anxiety about lane changing does indeed have an influence on driving behavior and that a consideration of lane changing probability in the car-following model could stabilize traffic flows. The quantitative relationship between stability improvement and lane changing probability is also investigated.展开更多
In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness, even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the sei...In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness, even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the seismic region. Based on this, the predictable model of regional time-magnitude has been used in North China and Southwest China. The normal correlation between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the last strong earthquake shows that the model is suitable. The value of the parameter c is less than the average value of 0.33 that is obtained from the events occurred in the plate boundary in the world. It is explained that the correlativity between the recurrence interval of the earthquake and the magnitude of the last strong event is not obvious. It is shown that the continental earthquakes in China are different from that occurred in the plate boundary and the recurrence model for the continental events are different from the one for the plate boundary events. Finally the seismic risk analysis based on this model for North China and Southwest China is given in this paper.展开更多
During both daily operation and emergency evacuation,the corners of walking facilities in subway stations play an important role in efficient circulation.However,the effectiveness of the corner is difficult to assess....During both daily operation and emergency evacuation,the corners of walking facilities in subway stations play an important role in efficient circulation.However,the effectiveness of the corner is difficult to assess.In this paper,a method of passenger gathering and scattering analysis based on queueing models was proposed to investigate the corner performance in subway stations.Firstly,we constructed a set of state spaces of passenger flow according to passenger density and proposed the state transition model of passenger flow.Moreover,the model of passenger flow blocking and unblocking probability were also presented.Then,to illustrate the validity of the method and model,several passenger gathering-scattering scenarios and were simulated to verify the influence of passenger distribution and facility width on passenger walking,and the blocking probability,throughput,and expected time were also analyzed under various widths of the target corridor and arrival rates.Results showed that the proposed model can reproduce the trend of walking parameters changing and the self-organizing phenomenon of'faster is lower'.With the increase of arrival rates of passengers,walking speeds of passengers decrease and the expected walking time is prolonged,and the blocking probability sharply increased when the arrival rate exceeded 7 peds/s.In addition,with change of width of the target facility,efficiency of capacity of walking circulation facility fluctuated.With the width of the target corridor enlarged by 10%,the steady state of passenger flow was less crowded.Therefore,corridor width is critical to the circulation efficiency of passengers in subway stations.The conclusions will help to develop reasonable passenger flow control plans to ease the jam and keep passengers walking safely.展开更多
To efficiently link the continuum mechanics for rocks with the structural statistics of rock masses,a theoretical and methodological system called the statistical mechanics of rock masses(SMRM)was developed in the pas...To efficiently link the continuum mechanics for rocks with the structural statistics of rock masses,a theoretical and methodological system called the statistical mechanics of rock masses(SMRM)was developed in the past three decades.In SMRM,equivalent continuum models of stressestrain relationship,strength and failure probability for jointed rock masses were established,which were based on the geometric probability models characterising the rock mass structure.This follows the statistical physics,the continuum mechanics,the fracture mechanics and the weakest link hypothesis.A general constitutive model and complete stressestrain models under compressive and shear conditions were also developed as the derivatives of the SMRM theory.An SMRM calculation system was then developed to provide fast and precise solutions for parameter estimations of rock masses,such as full-direction rock quality designation(RQD),elastic modulus,Coulomb compressive strength,rock mass quality rating,and Poisson’s ratio and shear strength.The constitutive equations involved in SMRM were integrated into a FLAC3D based numerical module to apply for engineering rock masses.It is also capable of analysing the complete deformation of rock masses and active reinforcement of engineering rock masses.Examples of engineering applications of SMRM were presented,including a rock mass at QBT hydropower station in northwestern China,a dam slope of Zongo II hydropower station in D.R.Congo,an open-pit mine in Dexing,China,an underground powerhouse of Jinping I hydropower station in southwestern China,and a typical circular tunnel in Lanzhou-Chongqing railway,China.These applications verified the reliability of the SMRM and demonstrated its applicability to broad engineering issues associated with jointed rock masses.展开更多
A great number of visual simultaneous localization and mapping(VSLAM)systems need to assume static features in the environment.However,moving objects can vastly impair the performance of a VSLAM system which relies on...A great number of visual simultaneous localization and mapping(VSLAM)systems need to assume static features in the environment.However,moving objects can vastly impair the performance of a VSLAM system which relies on the static-world assumption.To cope with this challenging topic,a real-time and robust VSLAM system based on ORB-SLAM2 for dynamic environments was proposed.To reduce the influence of dynamic content,we incorporate the deep-learning-based object detection method in the visual odometry,then the dynamic object probability model is added to raise the efficiency of object detection deep neural network and enhance the real-time performance of our system.Experiment with both on the TUM and KITTI benchmark dataset,as well as in a real-world environment,the results clarify that our method can significantly reduce the tracking error or drift,enhance the robustness,accuracy and stability of the VSLAM system in dynamic scenes.展开更多
With the global warming and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power pla...With the global warming and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Mtdti-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).展开更多
Foot-and-mouth disease(FMD)is an acute,highly infectious and pathogenic animal disease.In recent years,with the rapid development of the swine breeding industry in China,pig farms have shown a trend of larger-scale de...Foot-and-mouth disease(FMD)is an acute,highly infectious and pathogenic animal disease.In recent years,with the rapid development of the swine breeding industry in China,pig farms have shown a trend of larger-scale development.Large-scale pig farms employ standardized management,a high level of automation,and a strict_system.However,these farms have a large trading volume,and increased transmission intensity of FMD is noted inside the farm.At present,the main control measure against FMD is pig vaccination.However,a standard for immunization procedures is not available,and currently adopted immunization procedures have not been effectively and systematically evaluated.Taking a typical large-scale pig farm in China as the research subject and considering the breeding pattern,piggery structure,age structure and immunization procedures,an individual-based state probability model is established to evaluate the effectiveness of the immune procedure.Based on numerical simulation,it is concluded that the optimal immunization program involves primary immunization at 40 days of age and secondary immunization at 80 days of age for commercial pigs.Breeding boars and breeding sows are immunized 4 times a year,and reserve pigs are immunized at 169 and 259 days of age.According to the theoretical analysis,the average control reproduction number of individuals under the optimal immunization procedure in the farm is 0.4927.In the absence of immunization,the average is 1.7498,indicating that the epidemic cannot be controlled without immunization procedures.展开更多
Disc-cutters play a crucial role in the penetration process during construction using a tunnel boring machine(TBM).Their wear status has a significant impact on working efficiency and costs that accounts for a large p...Disc-cutters play a crucial role in the penetration process during construction using a tunnel boring machine(TBM).Their wear status has a significant impact on working efficiency and costs that accounts for a large part of the budget.Discovering the wear pattern and characteristics of disc-cutters could provide a valuable guide for field maintenance and cutter replacement work.It also provides insight into the wear mechanism of cutters at different positions for optimizing the disc-cutter arrangement design.In this study,the cutter wears data of 34 disc-cutters over 643 days in the Chaoer River to Xiliao River water diversion tunnel was collected.The dataset contains 21862 manual readings measured from 1079 disc-cutters replaced in this project.The raw data from the hard copy version was transformed into a digital twin database by eliminating abnormal data,filling in empty values,and performing linear interpolations.It has been found that the cutters can pass statistical testing for an exponential probability distribution function with respect to the wear rate(w).The regression ratios of R2are essentially greater than 0.8.These findings would help estimate the future service life of a currently working cutter,which means significant savings for the costly disccutters.The application of exponential distribution has the advantage of only one shape parameter,λ,whose reciprocal represents both the statistical mean and standard deviation of the wear rates.It is simple and practically amenable.A preliminary study was carried out to simulate the wear process between two neighboring cutters for drafting a replacement plan for disc-cutters by the Monte Carlo method.The prediction results agreed reasonably well with the measured information.展开更多
基金supported by the National Science Council,Taiwan under Contract No.NSC98-2221-E-003-014-MY2 and NSC99-2631-S-003-002
文摘This study presents a danger estimation system to prevent accidents among infants. A video camera positioned above the infant's crib captures video. The proposed system can monitor the behavior of infants aged zero to six months. If there is a change in behavior or any other unusual occurrence, the system alerts the person responsible to attend to the baby immediately. The proposed system operates in three phases, which are foreground color model (FC model) construction, infant detection, and degree of danger analysis. During FC model construction, the foreground color histogram is created iteratively; the background image does not have to be constructed first. A motion-history image (MHI) is also obtained based on the motion of the infant. The color and motion information supplied by the FC model and the MHI are combined to detect the infant, who is regarded as the foreground object in the input frame. Moreover, six features of infant behavior are extracted from the detected infant to measure the degree of danger faced by the infant, and the result is used to warn the baby-sitter if needed. Experimental results show that the proposed method is robust and efficient.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52375238)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou(202201020213,202201020193,202201010399)GZHU-HKUST Joint Research Fund(YH202109).
文摘In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFC3104205)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42377457).
文摘The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.
基金Natural Science Foundations of China under Grant Nos.51508154,51978125 and 51678104the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province under Grant No.BK20211206+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No.B210202033,China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2020M670787the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions。
文摘A probability-based analytical model for predicting the seismic residual deformation of bilinear single-degreeof-freedom(SDOF)systems with a kinematic/Takeda hysteretic model is proposed based on a statistical analysis of the nonlinear time history response,and the proposed model explicitly incorporates the influence of record-to-record variability.In addition,the influence of primary parameters such as the natural vibration period,relative yield force coefficient,stiffness ratio and peak ground acceleration(PGA)on the seismic residual/maximum deformation ratio(dR/dm)are investigated.The results show that significant dispersion of the dR/dm ratio is observed for SDOF systems under different seismic ground motion records,and the dispersion degree is influenced by the model parameters and record-to-record variability.The statistical distribution of the dR/dm results of SDOF systems can be described by a lognormal distribution.Finally,a case study for seismic residual deformation and reparability assessment of the bridge structure designed with a single pier is carried out to illustrate the detailed analytical procedure of the probability-based analytical model proposed in this study.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U156405)the GRINM Youth Foundation funded project
文摘The inconsistency of lithium-ion cells degrades battery performance,lifetime and even safety.The complexity of the cell reaction mechanism causes an irregular asymmetrical distribution of various cell parameters,such as capacity and internal resistance,among others.In this study,the Newman electrochemical model was used to simulate the 1 C discharge curves of 100 LiMn2 O4 pouch cells with parameter variations typically produced in manufacturing processes,and the three-parameter Weibull probability model was used to analyze the dispersion and symmetry of the resulting discharge voltage distributions.The results showed that the dispersion of the voltage distribution was related to the rate of decrease in the discharge voltage,and the symmetry was related to the change in the rate of voltage decrease.The effect of the cells’capacity dominated the voltage distribution thermodynamically during discharge,and the phase transformation process significantly skewed the voltage distribution.The effects of the ohmic drop and polarization voltage on the voltage distribution were primarily kinetic.The presence of current returned the right-skewed voltage distribution caused by phase transformation to a more symmetrical distribution.Thus,the Weibull parameters elucidated the electrochemical behavior during the discharge process,and this method can guide the prediction and control of cell inconsistency,as well as detection and control strategies for cell management systems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61172043)the Key Program of Shaanxi Provincial Natural Science for Basic Research(No.2011JZ015)
文摘The behavior of quantum cellular automata (QCA) under the influence of a stray charge is quantified. A new time-independent switching paradigm, a probability model of the double-dot system, is developed. Superiority in releasing the calculation operation is presented by the probability model compared to previous stray charge analysis utilizing ICHA or full-basis calculation. Simulation results illustrate that there is a 186-nm-wide region surrounding a QCA wire where a stray charge will cause the target cell to switch unsuccessfully. The failure is exhibited by two new states' dominating the target cell. Therefore, a bistable saturation model is no longer applicable for stray charge analysis.
基金Project supported by the National Key Scientific Instrument and Equipment Development Project,China(No.61827801)the Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Integrated Services Networks,China(No.ISN22-11)。
文摘Line-of-sight(LoS)probability prediction is critical to the performance optimization of wireless communication systems.However,it is challenging to predict the LoS probability of air-to-ground(A2G)communication scenarios,because the altitude of unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)or other aircraft varies from dozens of meters to several kilometers.This paper presents an altitude-dependent empirical LoS probability model for A2G scenarios.Before estimating the model parameters,we design a K-nearest neighbor(KNN)based strategy to classify LoS and non-LoS(NLoS)paths.Then,a two-layer back propagation neural network(BPNN)based parameter estimation method is developed to build the relationship between every model parameter and the UAV altitude.Simulation results show that the results obtained using our proposed model has good consistency with the ray tracing(RT)data,the measurement data,and the results obtained using the standard models.Our model can also provide wider applicable altitudes than other LoS probability models,and thus can be applied to different altitudes under various A2G scenarios.
文摘In this paper, a new statistic model named Center-Distance Continuous Probability Model (CDCPM) for speech recognition is described, which is based on Center-Distance Normal (CDN) distribution. In a CDCPM, the probability transition matrix is omitted, and the observation probability density function (PDF) in each state is in the form of embedded multiple-model (EMM) based on the Nearest Neighbour rule. The experimental results on two giant real-world Chinese speech databases and a real-world continuous-manner 2000 phrase system show that this model is a powerful one. Also,a distance measure for CDCPMs is proposed which is based on the Bayesian minimum classification error (MCE) discrimination.
文摘There exists model uncertainty of probability of detection for inspecting ship structures with nondestructive inspection techniques. Based on a comparison of several existing probability of detection (POD) models, a new probability of detection model is proposed for the updating of crack size distribution. Furthermore, the theoretical derivation shows that most existing probability of detection models are special cases of the new probability of detection model. The least square method is adopted for determining the values of parameters in the new POD model. This new model is also compared with other existing probability of detection models. The results indicate that the new probability of detection model can fit the inspection data better. This new probability of detection model is then applied to the analysis of the problem of crack size updating for offshore structures. The Bayesian updating method is used to analyze the effect of probability of detection models on the posterior distribution of a crack size. The results show that different probabilities of detection models generate different posterior distributions of a crack size for offshore structures.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51390493)
文摘Turbulent gas-particle flows are studied by a kinetic description using a prob- ability density function (PDF). Unlike other investigators deriving the particle Reynolds stress equations using the PDF equations, the particle PDF transport equations are di- rectly solved either using a finite-difference method for two-dimensional (2D) problems or using a Monte-Carlo (MC) method for three-dimensional (3D) problems. The proposed differential stress model together with the PDF (DSM-PDF) is used to simulate turbulent swirling gas-particle flows. The simulation results are compared with the experimental results and the second-order moment (SOM) two-phase modeling results. All of these simulation results are in agreement with the experimental results, implying that the PDF approach validates the SOM two-phase turbulence modeling. The PDF model with the SOM-MC method is used to simulate evaporating gas-droplet flows, and the simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental results.
文摘Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.
文摘In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main objective is to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the methods in separation of anomalies on the shear zone gold mineralization.For this purpose,samples were taken from the secondary lithogeochemical environment(stream sediment samples)on the gold mineralization in Saqqez,NW of Iran.Interpretation of the histograms and diagrams showed that the MPD is capable of identifying two phases of mineralization.The fractal method could separate only one phase of change based on the fractal dimension with high concentration areas of the Au element.The spatial analysis showed two mixed subpopulations after U=0 and another subpopulation with very high U values.The MPD analysis followed spatial analysis,which shows the detail of the variations.Six mineralized zones detected from local geochemical exploration results were used for validating the methods mentioned above.The MPD method was able to identify the anomalous areas higher than 90%,whereas the two other methods identified 60%(maximum)of the anomalous areas.The raw data without any estimation for the concentration was used by the MPD method using aminimum of calculations to determine the threshold values.Therefore,the MPD method is more robust than the other methods.The spatial analysis identified the detail soft hegeological and mineralization events that were affected in the study area.MPD is recommended as the best,and the spatial U-analysis is the next reliable method to be used.The fractal method could show more detail of the events and variations in the area with asymmetrical grid net and a higher density of sampling or at the detailed exploration stage.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70701002,70521001)the National Basic Research Program of China (2006CB705503)the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKU7187/05E)
文摘In this paper, a new car-following model is presented, taking into account the anticipation of potential lane changing by the leading vehicle. The stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The modified Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation is constructed and solved, and three types of traffic flow in the headway-sensitivity space, namely stable, metastable and unstable ones, are classified. Both the analytical and simu- lation results show that anxiety about lane changing does indeed have an influence on driving behavior and that a consideration of lane changing probability in the car-following model could stabilize traffic flows. The quantitative relationship between stability improvement and lane changing probability is also investigated.
文摘In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness, even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the seismic region. Based on this, the predictable model of regional time-magnitude has been used in North China and Southwest China. The normal correlation between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the last strong earthquake shows that the model is suitable. The value of the parameter c is less than the average value of 0.33 that is obtained from the events occurred in the plate boundary in the world. It is explained that the correlativity between the recurrence interval of the earthquake and the magnitude of the last strong event is not obvious. It is shown that the continental earthquakes in China are different from that occurred in the plate boundary and the recurrence model for the continental events are different from the one for the plate boundary events. Finally the seismic risk analysis based on this model for North China and Southwest China is given in this paper.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2020YFB1600701).
文摘During both daily operation and emergency evacuation,the corners of walking facilities in subway stations play an important role in efficient circulation.However,the effectiveness of the corner is difficult to assess.In this paper,a method of passenger gathering and scattering analysis based on queueing models was proposed to investigate the corner performance in subway stations.Firstly,we constructed a set of state spaces of passenger flow according to passenger density and proposed the state transition model of passenger flow.Moreover,the model of passenger flow blocking and unblocking probability were also presented.Then,to illustrate the validity of the method and model,several passenger gathering-scattering scenarios and were simulated to verify the influence of passenger distribution and facility width on passenger walking,and the blocking probability,throughput,and expected time were also analyzed under various widths of the target corridor and arrival rates.Results showed that the proposed model can reproduce the trend of walking parameters changing and the self-organizing phenomenon of'faster is lower'.With the increase of arrival rates of passengers,walking speeds of passengers decrease and the expected walking time is prolonged,and the blocking probability sharply increased when the arrival rate exceeded 7 peds/s.In addition,with change of width of the target facility,efficiency of capacity of walking circulation facility fluctuated.With the width of the target corridor enlarged by 10%,the steady state of passenger flow was less crowded.Therefore,corridor width is critical to the circulation efficiency of passengers in subway stations.The conclusions will help to develop reasonable passenger flow control plans to ease the jam and keep passengers walking safely.
基金The authors are grateful to the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41831290)the Key R&D Project from Zhejiang Province,China(Grant No.2020C03092).
文摘To efficiently link the continuum mechanics for rocks with the structural statistics of rock masses,a theoretical and methodological system called the statistical mechanics of rock masses(SMRM)was developed in the past three decades.In SMRM,equivalent continuum models of stressestrain relationship,strength and failure probability for jointed rock masses were established,which were based on the geometric probability models characterising the rock mass structure.This follows the statistical physics,the continuum mechanics,the fracture mechanics and the weakest link hypothesis.A general constitutive model and complete stressestrain models under compressive and shear conditions were also developed as the derivatives of the SMRM theory.An SMRM calculation system was then developed to provide fast and precise solutions for parameter estimations of rock masses,such as full-direction rock quality designation(RQD),elastic modulus,Coulomb compressive strength,rock mass quality rating,and Poisson’s ratio and shear strength.The constitutive equations involved in SMRM were integrated into a FLAC3D based numerical module to apply for engineering rock masses.It is also capable of analysing the complete deformation of rock masses and active reinforcement of engineering rock masses.Examples of engineering applications of SMRM were presented,including a rock mass at QBT hydropower station in northwestern China,a dam slope of Zongo II hydropower station in D.R.Congo,an open-pit mine in Dexing,China,an underground powerhouse of Jinping I hydropower station in southwestern China,and a typical circular tunnel in Lanzhou-Chongqing railway,China.These applications verified the reliability of the SMRM and demonstrated its applicability to broad engineering issues associated with jointed rock masses.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61671470).
文摘A great number of visual simultaneous localization and mapping(VSLAM)systems need to assume static features in the environment.However,moving objects can vastly impair the performance of a VSLAM system which relies on the static-world assumption.To cope with this challenging topic,a real-time and robust VSLAM system based on ORB-SLAM2 for dynamic environments was proposed.To reduce the influence of dynamic content,we incorporate the deep-learning-based object detection method in the visual odometry,then the dynamic object probability model is added to raise the efficiency of object detection deep neural network and enhance the real-time performance of our system.Experiment with both on the TUM and KITTI benchmark dataset,as well as in a real-world environment,the results clarify that our method can significantly reduce the tracking error or drift,enhance the robustness,accuracy and stability of the VSLAM system in dynamic scenes.
基金supported by the Nationam Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50679076)Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters of China(Grant No.20060120)
文摘With the global warming and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Mtdti-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0501501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant(11601292,61873154,11801398)+4 种基金Fund Program for the Scientific Activities of Selected Returned Overseas Professionals in Shanxi Province(20210009)General Youth Fund project in Shanxi Province(201901D211158)the 1331 Engineering Project of Shanxi Province,Scientific and Technological Innovation Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi Province(2019L0114)Key Projects of Health Commission of Shanxi Province(No.2020XM18)the Key Research and Development Project in Shanxi Province(202003D31011/GZ).
文摘Foot-and-mouth disease(FMD)is an acute,highly infectious and pathogenic animal disease.In recent years,with the rapid development of the swine breeding industry in China,pig farms have shown a trend of larger-scale development.Large-scale pig farms employ standardized management,a high level of automation,and a strict_system.However,these farms have a large trading volume,and increased transmission intensity of FMD is noted inside the farm.At present,the main control measure against FMD is pig vaccination.However,a standard for immunization procedures is not available,and currently adopted immunization procedures have not been effectively and systematically evaluated.Taking a typical large-scale pig farm in China as the research subject and considering the breeding pattern,piggery structure,age structure and immunization procedures,an individual-based state probability model is established to evaluate the effectiveness of the immune procedure.Based on numerical simulation,it is concluded that the optimal immunization program involves primary immunization at 40 days of age and secondary immunization at 80 days of age for commercial pigs.Breeding boars and breeding sows are immunized 4 times a year,and reserve pigs are immunized at 169 and 259 days of age.According to the theoretical analysis,the average control reproduction number of individuals under the optimal immunization procedure in the farm is 0.4927.In the absence of immunization,the average is 1.7498,indicating that the epidemic cannot be controlled without immunization procedures.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41831281,42220104007 and 52079150)the Basic Research Project of the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (Grant No.GE0145B022021)the Core Research Project of Power Construction Corporation of China (Grant No.DJ-HXGG-2021-01)。
文摘Disc-cutters play a crucial role in the penetration process during construction using a tunnel boring machine(TBM).Their wear status has a significant impact on working efficiency and costs that accounts for a large part of the budget.Discovering the wear pattern and characteristics of disc-cutters could provide a valuable guide for field maintenance and cutter replacement work.It also provides insight into the wear mechanism of cutters at different positions for optimizing the disc-cutter arrangement design.In this study,the cutter wears data of 34 disc-cutters over 643 days in the Chaoer River to Xiliao River water diversion tunnel was collected.The dataset contains 21862 manual readings measured from 1079 disc-cutters replaced in this project.The raw data from the hard copy version was transformed into a digital twin database by eliminating abnormal data,filling in empty values,and performing linear interpolations.It has been found that the cutters can pass statistical testing for an exponential probability distribution function with respect to the wear rate(w).The regression ratios of R2are essentially greater than 0.8.These findings would help estimate the future service life of a currently working cutter,which means significant savings for the costly disccutters.The application of exponential distribution has the advantage of only one shape parameter,λ,whose reciprocal represents both the statistical mean and standard deviation of the wear rates.It is simple and practically amenable.A preliminary study was carried out to simulate the wear process between two neighboring cutters for drafting a replacement plan for disc-cutters by the Monte Carlo method.The prediction results agreed reasonably well with the measured information.