Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area.In this study,the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH III is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states.The model,integrating the ST6 source term,is validated against observed data,demonstrating its credibility.The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown,and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics.The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas.The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics,and freak waves exist.The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series.The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed.The results show that with an increase in the platform area,the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

Prediction and Output Estimation of Pattern Moving in Non-Newtonian Mechanical Systems Based on Probability Density Evolution

A prediction framework based on the evolution of pattern motion probability density is proposed for the output prediction and estimation problem of non-Newtonian mechanical systems,assuming that the system satisfies the generalized Lipschitz condition.As a complex nonlinear system primarily governed by statistical laws rather than Newtonian mechanics,the output of non-Newtonian mechanics systems is difficult to describe through deterministic variables such as state variables,which poses difficulties in predicting and estimating the system’s output.In this article,the temporal variation of the system is described by constructing pattern category variables,which are non-deterministic variables.Since pattern category variables have statistical attributes but not operational attributes,operational attributes are assigned to them by posterior probability density,and a method for analyzing their motion laws using probability density evolution is proposed.Furthermore,a data-driven form of pattern motion probabilistic density evolution prediction method is designed by combining pseudo partial derivative(PPD),achieving prediction of the probability density satisfying the system’s output uncertainty.Based on this,the final prediction estimation of the system’s output value is realized by minimum variance unbiased estimation.Finally,a corresponding PPD estimation algorithm is designed using an extended state observer(ESO)to estimate the parameters to be estimated in the proposed prediction method.The effectiveness of the parameter estimation algorithm and prediction method is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and the accuracy of the algorithm is verified by two numerical simulation examples.

Growth, Population Parameters and Stock Status of Sarotherodon galilaeus in Samandeni Reservoir, Burkina Faso

Mango tilapia, Sarotherodon galilaeus is one of the most caught fish species in the Samandeni multi-species fishing sites of which, few data on its biology and exploitation are available. The study aimed to Assess the stock status of S. galilaeus. Sampling was conducted from March, 2021 to February 2022 based on commercial fish catches to analyze growth parameters, first sexual maturity size and harvest status of the stock. A total of 572 specimens including 297 females and 275 males were examined. The stock assessment was performed by using the Length based Bayesian method of Biomass (LBB) and that of growth by the ELEFAN method. The growth parameters showed a seasonality of growth and females appeared to grow faster than males. On the other hand, males had a greater asymptotic length than females. Results on the estimated length of fish at first maturity showed that females firstly reached the maturity compared to males. The relative biomass (B/B0) estimated for the stock was higher than the relative biomass that produces maximum sustainable yield (BMSY/B0) indicating healthy biomass. In addition, the length at first sexual maturity was less than the length at the first catch, indicating the absence of overfishing of growth. In addition, extending the study to the various stocks of the reservoir would be important for the sustainable management of the Samandeni high economic fishing area.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.

Outage Analysis of Optimal UAV Cooperation with IRS via Energy Harvesting Enhancement Assisted Computational Offloading

The utilization of mobile edge computing(MEC)for unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)communication presents a viable solution for achieving high reliability and low latency communication.This study explores the potential of employing intelligent reflective surfaces(IRS)andUAVs as relay nodes to efficiently offload user computing tasks to theMEC server system model.Specifically,the user node accesses the primary user spectrum,while adhering to the constraint of satisfying the primary user peak interference power.Furthermore,the UAV acquires energy without interrupting the primary user’s regular communication by employing two energy harvesting schemes,namely time switching(TS)and power splitting(PS).The selection of the optimal UAV is based on the maximization of the instantaneous signal-to-noise ratio.Subsequently,the analytical expression for the outage probability of the system in Rayleigh channels is derived and analyzed.The study investigates the impact of various system parameters,including the number of UAVs,peak interference power,TS,and PS factors,on the system’s outage performance through simulation.The proposed system is also compared to two conventional benchmark schemes:the optimal UAV link transmission and the IRS link transmission.The simulation results validate the theoretical derivation and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed scheme over the benchmark schemes.

Calculation of Two-Tailed Exact Probability in the Wald-Wolfowitz One-Sample Runs Test

The objectives of this paper are to demonstrate the algorithms employed by three statistical software programs (R, Real Statistics using Excel, and SPSS) for calculating the exact two-tailed probability of the Wald-Wolfowitz one-sample runs test for randomness, to present a novel approach for computing this probability, and to compare the four procedures by generating samples of 10 and 11 data points, varying the parameters n0 (number of zeros) and n1 (number of ones), as well as the number of runs. Fifty-nine samples are created to replicate the behavior of the distribution of the number of runs with 10 and 11 data points. The exact two-tailed probabilities for the four procedures were compared using Friedman’s test. Given the significant difference in central tendency, post-hoc comparisons were conducted using Conover’s test with Benjamini-Yekutielli correction. It is concluded that the procedures of Real Statistics using Excel and R exhibit some inadequacies in the calculation of the exact two-tailed probability, whereas the new proposal and the SPSS procedure are deemed more suitable. The proposed robust algorithm has a more transparent rationale than the SPSS one, albeit being somewhat more conservative. We recommend its implementation for this test and its application to others, such as the binomial and sign test.

Exploring the Relationship Between Patent Forward Citation and Stock Return Rate Using Empirical Data of China Stock Market

A novel indicator called price-citation was proposed.Based on the company integrated patent database of China listed companies of common stocks(A-shares)with the stock price and the stock return rate data,more than two thousand of A-shares from 2017 to 2020 were selected.The effect of the traditional patent forward citation and the price-citation for discriminating the stock return rate was thoroughly analyzed via ANOVA.The A-shares of forward citation counts above the average showed higher stock return rate means than the A-shares having patents but receiving no forward citations.The price-citation,combining both the financial and patent attributes,defined as the multiplication of the current stock price and the currently receiving forward citation count,showed its excellence in discriminating the stock return rate.The A-shares of higher price-citation showed significantly higher stock return rate means while the A-shares of lower price-citation showed significantly lowest stock return rate means.The price-citation effect had not been changed by COVID-19 though COVID-19 affected the social and economic environment to a considerable extent in 2020.

Flashover Probability of Wind Turbine Blade and Impact of Strong Electromagnetic Pulse from Lightning Strikes on Wind Turbine Safety

This paper systematically studies the flashover probability of wind turbine blade lightning arrester and the impact of strong electromagnetic pulses on the local and surrounding wind turbines during lightning strikes.The research results indicate that the flashover probability of direct lightning strikes by the wind turbine blade lightning arrester is almost negligible,and the strong electromagnetic pulse of wind turbine blade during lightning strikes has a serious impact on the electronic equipment of the machine,while the impact on the surrounding wind turbine is relatively small.At the same time,the calculation formula for the reflection of lightning current on the carbon brush between the wind turbine hub and the engine compartment during the flashing of the wind turbine blades is provided,and the calculation method for calculating the spatial gradient distribution of electromagnetic field intensity using Biot-Savart Law theorem is applied.The limitations of using wind turbine blades for lightning protection are pointed out,and a technical route for achieving wind turbine lightning safety is proposed,which can be used as a reference for wind turbine lightning protection technicians.

Probability Distribution of Ratio of China Aviation Network Edge Vertices Degree and Its Evolutionary Trace Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network, the probability distribution and evolution trace of ratio of China aviation network edge vertices degree were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015. According to the theory and method of complex network, the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network. Based on the statistical data, the ratio of edge vertices degree in China aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015 were calculated. Using the probability statistical analysis method and regression analysis approach, it was found that the ratio of edge vertices degree had linear probability distribution and the two parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.

Soil Organic Carbon Stock and Soil Quality under Four Major Agroecosystems in the Eastern Flank of Mount Bambouto (West-Cameroon)

Assessing soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) and soil quality (SQ) helps design better agricultural practices to improve environmental sustainability and productivity. The purpose of the study is to assess SOCS and soil quality SQ in the main agroecosystems (AES) of the eastern flank of Mount Bambouto (West, Cameroon). Using multiple statistics tests and principal component analysis (PCA), SOCS and Soil Quality Index (SQI) were computed for each AES. SOCS and SQI were computed based on soil chemical properties and analysis of variance. Topsoil samples (0 - 30 cm) were collected in a different AES and analyzed in the laboratory. The four AES identified and selected are cultivated land (CL), forest areas (FA), mixed areas (MA), and bush areas (BA). Further, multiple comparison tests were used to compare soils from different AES. PCA was used to select the most appropriate indicators that control SOCS and SQ. Several soil properties showed high to very high coefficient of variation within the AES. Organic matter (OM) was significantly high in FA. SOCS and SQ differ significantly (p = 0.000) between the AES. The study further indicates that the main variables controlling SQ within the eastern flank of Mount Bambouto are OM, pHw, N, C/N, and CEC. While the main soil parameters controlling SOCS are OM, OC, BD, C/N, S, and pHKCl.

System Outage Probability and Diversity Analysis of a SWIPT Based Two-Way DF Relay Network Under Transceiver Hardware Impairments

This paper investigates the system outage performance of a simultaneous wireless information and power transfer(SWIPT)based two-way decodeand-forward(DF)relay network,where potential hardware impairments(HIs)in all transceivers are considered.After harvesting energy and decoding messages simultaneously via a power splitting scheme,the energy-limited relay node forwards the decoded information to both terminals.Each terminal combines the signals from the direct and relaying links via selection combining.We derive the system outage probability under independent but non-identically distributed Nakagami-m fading channels.It reveals an overall system ceiling(OSC)effect,i.e.,the system falls in outage if the target rate exceeds an OSC threshold that is determined by the levels of HIs.Furthermore,we derive the diversity gain of the considered network.The result reveals that when the transmission rate is below the OSC threshold,the achieved diversity gain equals the sum of the shape parameter of the direct link and the smaller shape parameter of the terminalto-relay links;otherwise,the diversity gain is zero.This is different from the amplify-and-forward(AF)strategy,under which the relaying links have no contribution to the diversity gain.Simulation results validate the analytical results and reveal that compared with the AF strategy,the SWIPT based two-way relaying links under the DF strategy are more robust to HIs and achieve a lower system outage probability.

Fishing Dynamic and Stock Status of Endeavour Shrimp(Metapenaeus ensis de Haan)in Bombana Waters,South-East Celebes

The high market demand for endeavour shrimp(Metapenaeus ensis de Haan)has caused intensive fishing for this resource and tends to threaten their sustainability.Assessment of fishing dynamic and stock status of fisheries resource is the main point to formulate its proper sustainable management in the future.The purpose of this study was to determine the stock status of endeavour shrimp in the Bombana and its surrounding waters.The study was conducted from April to November 2021 using a survey method to analyze the length at first capture(L_(c)),length at first maturity(L_(m)),growth rate(K),maximum theoretical carapace length(Loo),and mortality rate such as total mortality rate(Z),fishing mortality rate(F)and natural mortality rate(M).The study results revealed that the endeavour shrimp growth pattern in Bombana was negative allometric and that the ratio of males and females was not balanced.The length at first capture(L_(c))was 29.83 mm(carapace length)and the length at first maturity(L_(m))was at a total carapace length of 31.67 mm.The growth rate(K)was 1.0 per year and maximum theoretical length(L_(∞))was 46.2 mm.The estimate total mortality rate(Z)was 2.52 per year,the fishing mortality rate(F)and natural mortality rate(M)were 0.91 per year and 1.61 per year respectively.The exploitation rate(E)was 0.36 per year,therefore the stock status is not categorized overfishing.In order to ensure the sustainability of the endeavour shrimp,then the effort must be increased by about 28%of the current effort.

Parkland trees on smallholder farms ameliorate soil physical-chemical properties in the semi-arid area of Tigray,Ethiopia

Proposed agroforestry options should begin with the species that farmers are most familiar with,which would be the native multipurpose trees that have evolved under smallholder farms and socioeconomic conditions.The African birch(Anogeissus leiocarpa(DC.)Guill.&Perr.)and pink jacaranda(Stereospermum kunthianum Cham.)trees are the dominant species in the agroforestry parkland system in the drylands of Tigray,Ethiopia.Smallholder farmers highly value these trees for their multifunctional uses including timber,firewood,charcoal,medicine,etc.These trees also could improve soil fertility.However,the amount of soil physical and chemical properties enhanced by the two species must be determined to maintain the sustainable conservation of the species in the parklands and to scale up to similar agroecological systems.Hence,we selected twelve isolated trees,six from each species that had similar dendrometric characteristics and were growing in similar environmental conditions.We divided the canopy cover of each tree into three radial distances:mid-canopy,canopy edge,and canopy gap(control).At each distance,we took soil samples from three different depths.We collected 216 soil samples(half disturbed and the other half undisturbed)from each canopy position and soil depth.Bulk density(BD),soil moisture content(SMC),soil organic carbon(SOC),total nitrogen(TN),available phosphorus(AP),available potassium(AK),p H,electrical conductivity(EC),and cation exchange capacity(CEC)were analysed.Results revealed that soil physical and chemical properties significantly improved except for soil texture and EC under both species,CEC under A.leiocarpus,and soil p H under S.kunthianum,all the studied soils were improved under both species canopy as compared with canopy gap.SMC,TN,AP,and AK under canopy of these trees were respectively 24.1%,11.1%,55.0%,and 9.3% higher than those soils under control.The two parkland agroforestry species significantly enhanced soil fertility near the canopy of topsoil through improving soil physical and chemical properties.These two species were recommended in the drylands with similar agro-ecological systems.

Vulnerability assessment of UAV engine to laser based on improved shotline method

Laser anti-drone technology is entering the sequence of actual combat,and it is necessary to consider the vulnerability of typical functional parts of UAVs.Since the concept of"vulnerability"was proposed,a variety of analysis programs for battlefield targets to traditional weapons have been developed,but a comprehensive assessment methodology for targets'vulnerability to laser is still missing.Based on the shotline method,this paper proposes a method that equates laser beam to shotline array,an efficient vulnerability analysis program of target to laser is established by this method,and the program includes the circuit board and the wire into the vulnerability analysis category,which improves the precision of the vulnerability analysis.Taking the UAV engine part as the target of vulnerability analysis,combine with the"life-death unit method"to calculate the laser penetration rate of various materials of the UAV,and the influence of laser weapon system parameters and striking orientation on the killing probability is quantified after introducing the penetration rate into the vulnerability analysis program.The quantitative analysis method proposed in this paper has certain general expansibility,which can provide a fresh idea for the vulnerability analysis of other targets to laser.

Uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion based on coupled mechanism—motor dynamic model for ammunition delivery system

In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.

Dietary organic acids ameliorate high stocking density stress-induced intestinal inflammation through the restoration of intestinal microbiota in broilers

Background:High stocking density(HSD)stress has detrimental effects on growth performance,intestinal barrier function,and intestinal microbiota in intensive animal production.Organic acids(OA)are widely used as feed addi-tives for their ability to improve growth performance and intestinal health in poultry.However,whether dietary OA can ameliorate HSD stress-induced impaired intestinal barrier in broilers remains elusive.In this study,a total of 528 one-day-old male Arbor Acres broilers were randomly allocated into 3 treatments with 12 replicates per treatment including 10 birds for normal stocking density and 17 birds for HSD.The dietary treatments were as follows:1)Normal stocking density+basal diet;2)HSD+basal diets;3)HSD+OA.Results:HSD stress can induce increased levels of serum corticosterone,lipopolysaccharides,interleukin-1β,tumor necrosis factor-α,and down-regulated mRNA expression of ZO-1,resulting in compromised growth performance of broilers(P<0.05).Dietary OA could significantly reduce levels of serum corticosterone,lipopolysaccharides,interleukin-1β,and tumor necrosis factor-α,which were accompanied by up-regulated interleukin-10,mRNA expres-sion of ZO-1,and growth performance(P<0.05).Moreover,OA could down-regulate the mRNA expression of TLR4 and MyD88 to inhibit the NF-κB signaling pathway(P<0.05).Additionally,HSD stress significantly decreased the abundance of Bacteroidetes and disturbed the balance of microbial ecosystems,whereas OA significantly increased the abundance of Bacteroidetes and restored the disordered gut microbiota by reducing competitive and exploita-tive interactions in microbial communities(P<0.05).Meanwhile,OA significantly increased the content of acetic and butyric acids,which showed significant correlations with intestinal inflammation indicators(P<0.05).Conclusions:Dietary OA ameliorated intestinal inflammation and growth performance of broilers through restor-ing the disordered gut microbial compositions and interactions induced by HSD and elevating short-chain fatty acid production to inhibit the TLR4/NF-κB signaling pathway.These findings demonstrated the critical role of intestinal microbiota in mediating the HSD-induced inflammatory responses,contributing to exploring nutritional strategies to alleviate HSD-induced stress in animals.

Secrecy Outage Probability Minimization in Wireless-Powered Communications Using an Improved Biogeography-Based Optimization-Inspired Recurrent Neural Network

This paper focuses on wireless-powered communication systems,which are increasingly relevant in the Internet of Things(IoT)due to their ability to extend the operational lifetime of devices with limited energy.The main contribution of the paper is a novel approach to minimize the secrecy outage probability(SOP)in these systems.Minimizing SOP is crucial for maintaining the confidentiality and integrity of data,especially in situations where the transmission of sensitive data is critical.Our proposed method harnesses the power of an improved biogeography-based optimization(IBBO)to effectively train a recurrent neural network(RNN).The proposed IBBO introduces an innovative migration model.The core advantage of IBBO lies in its adeptness at maintaining equilibrium between exploration and exploitation.This is accomplished by integrating tactics such as advancing towards a random habitat,adopting the crossover operator from genetic algorithms(GA),and utilizing the global best(Gbest)operator from particle swarm optimization(PSO)into the IBBO framework.The IBBO demonstrates its efficacy by enabling the RNN to optimize the system parameters,resulting in significant outage probability reduction.Through comprehensive simulations,we showcase the superiority of the IBBO-RNN over existing approaches,highlighting its capability to achieve remarkable gains in SOP minimization.This paper compares nine methods for predicting outage probability in wireless-powered communications.The IBBO-RNN achieved the highest accuracy rate of 98.92%,showing a significant performance improvement.In contrast,the standard RNN recorded lower accuracy rates of 91.27%.The IBBO-RNN maintains lower SOP values across the entire signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)spectrum tested,suggesting that the method is highly effective at optimizing system parameters for improved secrecy even at lower SNRs.

Locally and globally uniform approximations for ruin probabilities of a nonstandard bidimensional risk model with subexponential claims

Consider a nonstandard continuous-time bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest,in which the two classes of claims with subexponential distributions satisfy a general dependence structure and each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is arbitrarily dependent.Under some mild conditions,we achieve a locally uniform approximation of the finite-time ruin probability for all time horizon within a finite interval.If we further assume that each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is negative quadrant dependent and the two classes of claims are consistently-varying-tailed,it shows that the above obtained approximation is also globally uniform for all time horizon within an infinite interval.

Optimal search path planning of UUV in battlefeld ambush scene

Aiming at the practical application of Unmanned Underwater Vehicle(UUV)in underwater combat,this paper proposes a battlefield ambush scene with UUV considering ocean current.Firstly,by establishing these mathematical models of ocean current environment,target movement,and sonar detection,the probability calculation methods of single UUV searching target and multiple UUV cooperatively searching target are given respectively.Then,based on the Hybrid Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization(HQPSO)algorithm,the path with the highest target search probability is found.Finally,through simulation calculations,the influence of different UUV parameters and target parameters on the target search probability is analyzed,and the minimum number of UUVs that need to be deployed to complete the ambush task is demonstrated,and the optimal search path scheme is obtained.The method proposed in this paper provides a theoretical basis for the practical application of UUV in the future combat.