Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

Prediction and Output Estimation of Pattern Moving in Non-Newtonian Mechanical Systems Based on Probability Density Evolution

A prediction framework based on the evolution of pattern motion probability density is proposed for the output prediction and estimation problem of non-Newtonian mechanical systems,assuming that the system satisfies the generalized Lipschitz condition.As a complex nonlinear system primarily governed by statistical laws rather than Newtonian mechanics,the output of non-Newtonian mechanics systems is difficult to describe through deterministic variables such as state variables,which poses difficulties in predicting and estimating the system’s output.In this article,the temporal variation of the system is described by constructing pattern category variables,which are non-deterministic variables.Since pattern category variables have statistical attributes but not operational attributes,operational attributes are assigned to them by posterior probability density,and a method for analyzing their motion laws using probability density evolution is proposed.Furthermore,a data-driven form of pattern motion probabilistic density evolution prediction method is designed by combining pseudo partial derivative(PPD),achieving prediction of the probability density satisfying the system’s output uncertainty.Based on this,the final prediction estimation of the system’s output value is realized by minimum variance unbiased estimation.Finally,a corresponding PPD estimation algorithm is designed using an extended state observer(ESO)to estimate the parameters to be estimated in the proposed prediction method.The effectiveness of the parameter estimation algorithm and prediction method is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and the accuracy of the algorithm is verified by two numerical simulation examples.

Suitable Date of Seeding, Planting Density and Water Use Efficiency for Propagation of Stock Seed Potato in Mountainous Region of Southwest Sichuan

[Objective] The experiment was conducted to study suitable date of seed- ing and density of spring potato at the stock breeding base in Ebian County at an elevation of 1 200 to 1 500 m. [Methods] Virus-free Potato ＂Chuanyu 13＂ was used as material to study the effects of date of seeding and density on growing period, germination rate, yield and water use efficiency of spring potato in the field. [Result] With the postponement of date of seeding, the days from sowing to germination shortened, while the germination rate, the number of tubers per plant, the number of middle and small tubers in a group, yield and water use efficiency all increased. Planting density had no effects on the days from sowing to germination and the ger- mination rate, while the number of tubers per ptant, the number of middle and small tubers in a group, yield and water use efficiency increased significantly along with the increasing planting density. [Conclusion] At an elevation of 1 200 m to 1 250 m in Ebian County, the suitable date of seeding for potato was from February 9 to March 1, and the suitable planting density was 12×10^4 plants per hm^2, however, in the optimum planting density has not been found so that it needs further research,

Predicting the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property based on microscale rock mechanical experiments and accurate grain-based modeling

The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.

Integrating remote sensing and 3-PG model to simulate the biomass and carbon stock of Larix olgensis plantation

Accurate estimations of biomass and its temporal dynamics are crucial for monitoring the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems and assessing forest carbon sequestration potentials.Recent studies have shown that integrating process-based models(PBMs)with remote sensing data can enhance simulations from stand to regional scales,significantly improving the ability to simulate forest growth and carbon stock dynamics.However,the utilization of PBMs for large-scale simulation of larch carbon storage distribution is still limited.In this study,we applied the parameterized 3-PG(Physiological Principles Predicting Growth)model across the Mengjiagang Forest Farm(MFF)to make broad-scale predictions of the biomass and carbon stocks of Larix olgensis plantation.The model was used to simulate average diameter at breast height(DBH)and total biomass,which were later validated with a wide range of observation data including sample plot data,forest management inventory data,and airborne laser scanning data.The results showed that the 3-PG model had relatively high accuracy for predicting both DBH and total biomass at stand and regional scale,with determination coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.88.Based on the estimation of total biomass,we successfully produced a carbon stock map of the Larix olgensis plantation in MFF with a spatial resolution of 20 m,which helps with relevant management advice.These findings indicate that the integration of 3-PG model and remote sensing data can well predict the biomass and carbon stock at regional and even larger scales.In addition,this integration facilitates the evaluation of forest carbon sequestration capacity and the development of forest management plans.

Carbon stock estimation in halophytic wooded savannas of Uruguay:An ecosystem approach

Savannas constitute a mixture of trees and shrub patches with a more continuous herbaceous understory.The contribution of this biome to the soil organic carbon(SOC)and above-ground biomass(AGB)carbon(C)stock globally is significant.However,they are frequently subjected to land use changes,promoting increases in CO_(2) emissions.In Uruguay,subtropical wooded savannas cover around 100,000 ha,of which approximately 28%is circumscribed to sodic soils(i.e.,subtropical halophytic wooded savannas).Nevertheless,there is little background about the contribution of each ecosystem component to the C stock as well as site-specific allometric equations.The study was conducted in 5 ha of subtropical halophytic wooded savannas of the national protected area Esteros y Algarrobales del Rio Uruguay.This work aimed to estimate the contribution of the main ecosystem components(e.g.,soil,trees,shrubs,and herbaceous plants)to the C stock.Site-specific allometric equations for the most frequent tree species and shrub genus were fitted based on basal diameter(BD)and total height(H).The fitted equations accounted for between 77%and 98%of the aerial biomass variance of Netuma affinis and Vachellia caven.For shrubs(Baccharis sp.),the adjusted equation accounted for 86%of total aerial biomass.C stock for the entire system was 116.71±11.07 Mg·ha^(-1),of which 90.7%was allocated in the soil,8.3%in the trees,0.8%in the herbaceous plants,and 0.2%in the shrubs.These results highlight the importance of subtropical halophytic wooded savannas as C sinks and their relevance in the mitigation of global warming under a climate change scenario.

Growth, Population Parameters and Stock Status of Sarotherodon galilaeus in Samandeni Reservoir, Burkina Faso

Mango tilapia, Sarotherodon galilaeus is one of the most caught fish species in the Samandeni multi-species fishing sites of which, few data on its biology and exploitation are available. The study aimed to Assess the stock status of S. galilaeus. Sampling was conducted from March, 2021 to February 2022 based on commercial fish catches to analyze growth parameters, first sexual maturity size and harvest status of the stock. A total of 572 specimens including 297 females and 275 males were examined. The stock assessment was performed by using the Length based Bayesian method of Biomass (LBB) and that of growth by the ELEFAN method. The growth parameters showed a seasonality of growth and females appeared to grow faster than males. On the other hand, males had a greater asymptotic length than females. Results on the estimated length of fish at first maturity showed that females firstly reached the maturity compared to males. The relative biomass (B/B0) estimated for the stock was higher than the relative biomass that produces maximum sustainable yield (BMSY/B0) indicating healthy biomass. In addition, the length at first sexual maturity was less than the length at the first catch, indicating the absence of overfishing of growth. In addition, extending the study to the various stocks of the reservoir would be important for the sustainable management of the Samandeni high economic fishing area.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Transcriptional regulation of MdPIN7 by MdARF19 during gravityinduced formation of adventitious root GSA in self-rooted apple stock

Self-rooted apple stock is widely used for apple production.However,the shallowness of the adventitious roots in self-rooted apple stock leads to poor performance in the barren orchards of China.This is because of the considerable difference in the development of a gravitropic set-point angle(GSA)between self-rooted apple stock and seedling rootstock.Therefore,it is crucial to study the molecular mechanism of adventitious root GSA in self-rooted apple stock for breeding self-rooted and deep-rooted apple rootstock cultivars.An apple auxin response factor MdARF19 functioned to establish the adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity and auxin signals.MdARF19 bound directly to the MdPIN7 promoter,activating its transcriptional expression and thus regulating the formation of the adventitious root GSA in 12-2 self-rooted apple stock.However,MdARF19 influenced the expression of auxin efflux carriers(MdPIN3 and MdPIN10)and the establishment of adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity signals by direct activation of MdFLP.Our findings provide new information on the transcriptional regulation of MdPIN7 by auxin response factor MdARF19 in the regulation of the adventitious root GSA of self-rooted apple stock in response to gravity and auxin signals.

Stochastic Model of Dengue: Analysing the Probability of Extinction and LLN

In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using the law of large numbers (LLN). Initially, we calculate and estimate the probabilities of dengue extinction and major outbreak occurrence using multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. Subsequently, we apply the LLN to examine the convergence of the stochastic model towards the deterministic model. Finally, theoretical numerical simulations are conducted exploration to validate our findings. Under identical conditions, our numerical results demonstrate that dengue could vanish in the stochastic model while persisting in the deterministic model. The highlighting of the law of large numbers through numerical simulations indicates from what population size a deterministic model should be considered preferable.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.

Integrating host biological and ecological variables to predict probability of haemosporidian infection in raptors

Variations in host traits that influence their exposure and susceptibility may impact probability of vector-transmitted diseases.Therefore,identifying the predictors of infection probability is necessary to understand the risk of disease outbreaks during expanding environmental perturbation.Here,we conducted a large survey based on microscopic examination and molecular analysis of haemosporidian parasite infection in raptors rescued at the Beijing Raptor Rescue Centre.Combining these data with biological and ecological variables of the raptors,we determined predictors that affect the probability of haemosporidian infection using generalized linear mixed models and multimodel inference.Our results showed that infection probability exhibited considerable variation across host species in raptors,and body mass,sex,and evolutionary history played relatively weaker roles in driving infection probability.Instead,activity pattern,age,geographic range size,migration distance,and nest type were important predictors of the probability of haemosporidian infection,and the role of each predictor differed in the three main haemosporidian genera(Plasmodium,Haemoproteus,and Leucocytozoon).This macro-ecological analysis will add to our understanding of host traits that influence the probability of avian haemosporidian infection and will help inform risk of emerging diseases.

The Impact of Short Selling Disclosure Regulatory Constraint on the Lending Market and Stock Ownership

We examine the impact of the short sell disclosure(SSD)regime on the stock lending market and investor behaviors,employing a staggered difference-indifference(DiD)methodology.Our research reveals that the introduction of the disclosure regime enhances market transparency,resulting in a diminished appeal of stock ownership in the lending market for active investors.This shift is accompanied by a reduction in information leakage risks and longer loan durations.Specifically,our analysis reveals a significant decrease in the risk of loan recall by 4.87%,accompanied by an average increase of 23.72%in loan duration for short selling activities.Furthermore,the cost associated with short-sell disclosure causes a decline in both lending supply and short demand.

Outage Analysis of Optimal UAV Cooperation with IRS via Energy Harvesting Enhancement Assisted Computational Offloading

The utilization of mobile edge computing(MEC)for unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)communication presents a viable solution for achieving high reliability and low latency communication.This study explores the potential of employing intelligent reflective surfaces(IRS)andUAVs as relay nodes to efficiently offload user computing tasks to theMEC server system model.Specifically,the user node accesses the primary user spectrum,while adhering to the constraint of satisfying the primary user peak interference power.Furthermore,the UAV acquires energy without interrupting the primary user’s regular communication by employing two energy harvesting schemes,namely time switching(TS)and power splitting(PS).The selection of the optimal UAV is based on the maximization of the instantaneous signal-to-noise ratio.Subsequently,the analytical expression for the outage probability of the system in Rayleigh channels is derived and analyzed.The study investigates the impact of various system parameters,including the number of UAVs,peak interference power,TS,and PS factors,on the system’s outage performance through simulation.The proposed system is also compared to two conventional benchmark schemes:the optimal UAV link transmission and the IRS link transmission.The simulation results validate the theoretical derivation and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed scheme over the benchmark schemes.

Calculation of Two-Tailed Exact Probability in the Wald-Wolfowitz One-Sample Runs Test

The objectives of this paper are to demonstrate the algorithms employed by three statistical software programs (R, Real Statistics using Excel, and SPSS) for calculating the exact two-tailed probability of the Wald-Wolfowitz one-sample runs test for randomness, to present a novel approach for computing this probability, and to compare the four procedures by generating samples of 10 and 11 data points, varying the parameters n0 (number of zeros) and n1 (number of ones), as well as the number of runs. Fifty-nine samples are created to replicate the behavior of the distribution of the number of runs with 10 and 11 data points. The exact two-tailed probabilities for the four procedures were compared using Friedman’s test. Given the significant difference in central tendency, post-hoc comparisons were conducted using Conover’s test with Benjamini-Yekutielli correction. It is concluded that the procedures of Real Statistics using Excel and R exhibit some inadequacies in the calculation of the exact two-tailed probability, whereas the new proposal and the SPSS procedure are deemed more suitable. The proposed robust algorithm has a more transparent rationale than the SPSS one, albeit being somewhat more conservative. We recommend its implementation for this test and its application to others, such as the binomial and sign test.

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Stock Price Prediction: Leveraging LSTM for Real-Time Forecasting

The research focuses on improving predictive accuracy in the financial sector through the exploration of machine learning algorithms for stock price prediction. The research follows an organized process combining Agile Scrum and the Obtain, Scrub, Explore, Model, and iNterpret (OSEMN) methodology. Six machine learning models, namely Linear Forecast, Naive Forecast, Simple Moving Average with weekly window (SMA 5), Simple Moving Average with monthly window (SMA 20), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are compared and evaluated through Mean Absolute Error (MAE), with the LSTM model performing the best, showcasing its potential for practical financial applications. A Django web application “Predict It” is developed to implement the LSTM model. Ethical concerns related to predictive modeling in finance are addressed. Data quality, algorithm choice, feature engineering, and preprocessing techniques are emphasized for better model performance. The research acknowledges limitations and suggests future research directions, aiming to equip investors and financial professionals with reliable predictive models for dynamic markets.

Exploring the Relationship Between Patent Forward Citation and Stock Return Rate Using Empirical Data of China Stock Market

A novel indicator called price-citation was proposed.Based on the company integrated patent database of China listed companies of common stocks(A-shares)with the stock price and the stock return rate data,more than two thousand of A-shares from 2017 to 2020 were selected.The effect of the traditional patent forward citation and the price-citation for discriminating the stock return rate was thoroughly analyzed via ANOVA.The A-shares of forward citation counts above the average showed higher stock return rate means than the A-shares having patents but receiving no forward citations.The price-citation,combining both the financial and patent attributes,defined as the multiplication of the current stock price and the currently receiving forward citation count,showed its excellence in discriminating the stock return rate.The A-shares of higher price-citation showed significantly higher stock return rate means while the A-shares of lower price-citation showed significantly lowest stock return rate means.The price-citation effect had not been changed by COVID-19 though COVID-19 affected the social and economic environment to a considerable extent in 2020.

Research on the Dynamic Volatility Relationship between Chinese and U.S. Stock Markets Based on the DCC-GARCH Model under the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study utilizes the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model to investigate the dynamic relationship between Chinese and U.S. stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, a univariate GARCH model is developed to derive residual sequences, which are then used to estimate the DCC model parameters. The research reveals a significant rise in the interconnection between the Chinese and U.S. stock markets during the pandemic. The S&P 500 index displayed higher sensitivity and greater volatility in response to the pandemic, whereas the CSI 300 index showed superior resilience and stability. Analysis and model estimation suggest that the market’s dependence on historical data has intensified and its sensitivity to recent shocks has heightened. Predictions from the model indicate increased market volatility during the pandemic. While the model is proficient in capturing market trends, there remains potential for enhancing the accuracy of specific volatility predictions. The study proposes recommendations for policymakers and investors, highlighting the importance of improved cooperation in international financial market regulation and investor education.

Assessment of South Pacific Albacore Stock (Thunnus alalunga) by Improved Schaefer Model

Based on catch and effort data of tuna longline fishery operating in the South Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific albacore stock was assessed by an improved Schaefer model. The results revealed that the intrinsic growth rate was about 1.283 74 and carrying capacities vareied in the range from 73 734 to 266 732 metric tons. The growth ability of this species is remarkable. Stock dynamics mainly depends on environmental conditions. The stock is still in good condition. However, the continuous decreasing of biomass in recent years should be noticed.

Flashover Probability of Wind Turbine Blade and Impact of Strong Electromagnetic Pulse from Lightning Strikes on Wind Turbine Safety

This paper systematically studies the flashover probability of wind turbine blade lightning arrester and the impact of strong electromagnetic pulses on the local and surrounding wind turbines during lightning strikes.The research results indicate that the flashover probability of direct lightning strikes by the wind turbine blade lightning arrester is almost negligible,and the strong electromagnetic pulse of wind turbine blade during lightning strikes has a serious impact on the electronic equipment of the machine,while the impact on the surrounding wind turbine is relatively small.At the same time,the calculation formula for the reflection of lightning current on the carbon brush between the wind turbine hub and the engine compartment during the flashing of the wind turbine blades is provided,and the calculation method for calculating the spatial gradient distribution of electromagnetic field intensity using Biot-Savart Law theorem is applied.The limitations of using wind turbine blades for lightning protection are pointed out,and a technical route for achieving wind turbine lightning safety is proposed,which can be used as a reference for wind turbine lightning protection technicians.