Corporate Probability of Default(PD)Modelling for Banks in Emerging Economies:A Case Study of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE)Listed Counters

The paper extends Merton’s Probability of Default(PD)model to the case for transaction costs or market friction for estimation of the PDs of listed banking corporations.A closed form formula for the PD model is obtained and validated using financial data drawn from banks listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE).It has been observed that most corporations in emerging economies have been finding it extremely difficult to list,continue listed or manage risk emanating from credit exposures undertaken.In the absence of risk the role of the financial sector of an economy to efficiently and effectively allocate resources between the public and private sectors would be simplified,economically and rationally determined.Reliable or precise computation of the Probability of Default(PD)of a borrower is one of the most critical tasks in credit risk management for commercial banks that were applying the Internal Rating Based Approach(IRBA)under the Basel Capital Accords Ⅱ and Ⅲ frameworks.The study sought to develop a Probability of Default(PD)model that banking corporations in emerging economies such as Zimbabwe could adopt and implement in the Multiple Currency System(MCS)in their desire to grow and develop through their lending businesses.The research study adopted a PD model similar to the Asset Valuation Model(AVM)by Merton(1974)and initially extended by Black-Scholes(1973)and Crouhy et al.(2000)and applied it on a basket of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange listed counters after having adjusted the model for the transaction cost variable.The study therefore succeeded in coming up with a PD model that was worth adopting and implementing by Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE)listed corporations in their desire to grow towards sustainable development.It was realised that a contemporary PD model adjusted for transaction cost is pertinent for reflection of practical conditions banks face in estimation of their risk metrics such as PD.Transaction costs faced by banks in emerging economies are very huge that they cannot be assumed to be insignificant when it comes to valuation of PDs of banking corporations.The inclusion of transaction costs in estimation of PDs of ZSE listed banks is likely to create a paradigm shift in financial theory on risk metrics in the modern world.The study ends by recommending the need for all Zimbabwean listed corporations to adopt and implement an AVM adjusted for transaction costs if they were to successfully measure and manage both their investment and credit exposure endeavours in the multiple currency system period.

Econometric Model to Estimate the Probability of Default and Loss Given Default in the EBA Stress Test in 2016

In this research,an econometric with panel data using Ordinary least squares OLS model is constructed following the guidelines recommended by the EBA stress test methodology for 2016.The findings indicate that macroeconomic factors affecting defaults are the expected ones in the Spanish credit institutions.However,loan impairments do not follow the patterns that a priori would be normal.Divergent is outcomes in defaults and impairments:the Non-Performing Loans(NPL)is pro-cyclical and impairment losses are counter-cyclical.

Credit Spreads,Probability of Default and Debt Risk Measurement of Prefectural Governments in China:2014-2017

In this paper,the concepts of probability of default,loss given default and expected loss in the internal ratings-based approach are introduced into the measurement of local government debt risk.Based on issuing interest rate and credit spreads of provincial government bonds,the default probability models of general debt and special debt are constructed and estimated,and the general and special debt risk of 333 prefectural governments in China from 2014 to 2017 are estimated respectively,and their regional distribution and changes are analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:Both general and special debt risk are different among regions.In terms of vertical changes in 2014-2017,debt risk has increased on the whole,but this increase has been driven more by the increase in the size of the debt,with no significant change in the probability of default,and the debt risk is concentrated in a small number of prefectural governments.The general debt risk accounts for about two-thirds of the total debt risk,the special debt risk accounts for about one-third,and this proportion structure is basically unchanged in 2014-2017.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for governance and control of local debt risk.

Research on Credit Default Swaps Pricing Considering Moral Hazard Incentive under Reduce-Form Model

Equilibrium pricing of credit default swaps(CDS)promotes efficient identification of credit risk in the market,which in turn leads to efficient allocation of resources.However,even when CDS have been priced in equilibrium,i.e.,when premiums are equal to anticipated payments,the moral hazard incentives of CDS buyers increase with CDS transactions.Consequentially,it becomes an interesting research direction to study the impact of moral hazard incentives on the trading mechanism or pricing of derivatives(CDS).Most of the existing literature on the impact of moral hazard incentives in CDS pricing on derivatives trading mechanisms takes a macro perspective and focuses on the agreement risk effect.The literature exploring the analysis of the impact of moral hazard on the probability of agreement default from a micro perspective is not yet available.With this in mind,this paper focuses on the mechanisms by which“fraud”,an extreme manifestation of micro-moral hazard incentives,affects the probability of default.This paper introduces for the first time the concept of“claiming fraud”by credit protection buyers,which is different from the macro perspective of moral hazard incentives,and thus defines a specific extreme form of moral hazard incentives.Meanwhile,to address the intrinsic feature of the lack of economic explanatory power of the reduce-form model,this paper introduces a moral hazard incentive factor into the reduce-form model,and proposes a moral hazard state variable as a function of the asset value of the reference entity,which gives the reduce-form model strong economic explanatory power,and the default predictability is reduced by the description of the reduce-form model.In terms of the object of study,this paper considers the issue of moral hazard incentives in the presence of claiming fraud in two reference entities to further explore the impact of moral hazard incentives on default protection at the micro level in terms of cyclic default.Finally,based on the analysis of the results of the numerical simulation experiments,it is proposed that increasing the number of reference assets for CDS buyers will help to reduce the moral hazard incentives of the buyer,and thus the anticipated payments to the buyer,i.e.,we attempt to endogenize the credit risk of an asset by allowing the asset holder to choose the probability of the asset going up or down,which helps to understand the phenomenon of moral hazard incentives in CDS trading.