Numerical investigation of hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of a cascading failure of landslide dams

A cascading failure of landslide dams caused by strong earthquakes or torrential rains in mountainous river valleys can pose great threats to people’s lives,properties,and infrastructures.In this study,based on the three-dimensional Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations(RANS),the renormalization group(RNG)k-εturbulence model,suspended and bed load transport equations,and the instability discriminant formula of dam breach side slope,and the explicit finite volume method(FVM),a detailed numerical simulation model for calculating the hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of cascading dam breach process has been developed.The developed numerical model can simulate the breach hydrograph and the dam breach morphology evolution during the cascading failure process of landslide dams.A model test of the breaches of two cascading landslide dams has been used as the validation case.The comparison of the calculated and measured results indicates that the breach hydrograph and the breach morphology evolution process of the upstream and downstream dams are generally consistent with each other,and the relative errors of the key breaching parameters,i.e.,the peak breach flow and the time to peak of each dam,are less than±5%.Further,the comparison of the breach hydrographs of the upstream and downstream dams shows that there is an amplification effect of the breach flood on the cascading landslide dam failures.Three key parameters,i.e.,the distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,the river channel slope,and the downstream dam height,have been used to study the flood amplification effect.The parameter sensitivity analyses show that the peak breach flow at the downstream dam decreases with increasing distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,and the downstream dam height.Further,the peak breach flow at the downstream dam first increases and then decreases with steepening of the river channel slope.When the flood caused by the upstream dam failure flows to the downstream dam,it can produce a surge wave that overtops and erodes the dam crest,resulting in a lowering of the dam crest elevation.This has an impact on the failure occurrence time and the peak breach flow of the downstream dam.The influence of the surge wave on the downstream dam failure process is related to the volume of water that overtops the dam crest and the erosion characteristics of dam material.Moreover,the cascading failure case of the Xiaogangjian and Lower Xiaogangjian landslide dams has also been used as the representative case for validating the model.In comparisons of the calculated and measured breach hydrographs and final breach morphologies,the relative errors of the key dam breaching parameters are all within±10%,which verify the rationality of the model is applicable to real-world cases.Overall,the numerical model developed in this study can provide important technical support for the risk assessment and emergency treatment of failures of cascading landslide dams.

Reliable Failure Restoration with Bayesian Congestion Aware for Software Defined Networks

SoftwareDefined Networks(SDN)introduced better network management by decoupling control and data plane.However,communication reliability is the desired property in computer networks.The frequency of communication link failure degrades network performance,and service disruptions are likely to occur.Emerging network applications,such as delaysensitive applications,suffer packet loss with higher Round Trip Time(RTT).Several failure recovery schemes have been proposed to address link failure recovery issues in SDN.However,these schemes have various weaknesses,which may not always guarantee service availability.Communication paths differ in their roles;some paths are critical because of the higher frequency usage.Other paths frequently share links between primary and backup.Rerouting the affected flows after failure occurrences without investigating the path roles can lead to post-recovery congestion with packet loss and system throughput.Therefore,there is a lack of studies to incorporate path criticality and residual path capacity to reroute the affected flows in case of link failure.This paper proposed Reliable Failure Restoration with Congestion Aware for SDN to select the reliable backup path that decreases packet loss and RTT,increasing network throughput while minimizing post-recovery congestion.The affected flows are redirected through a path with minimal risk of failure,while Bayesian probability is used to predict post-recovery congestion.Both the former and latter path with a minimal score is chosen.The simulation results improved throughput by(45%),reduced packet losses(87%),and lowered RTT(89%)compared to benchmarking works.

Evaluation of the effect of geometrical parameters on stope probability of failure in the open stoping method using numerical modeling

Stress-induced failure is among the most common causes of instability in Canadian deep underground mines.Open stoping is the most widely practiced underground excavation method in these mines,and creates large stopes which are subjected to stress-induced failure.The probability of failure(POF)depends on many factors,of which the geometry of an open stope is especially important.In this study,a methodology is proposed to assess the effect of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,using numerical modelling.Different ranges for each input parameter are defined according to previous surveys on open stope geometry in a number of Canadian underground mines.A Monte-Carlo simulation technique is combined with the finite difference code FLAC3D,to generate model realizations containing stopes with different geometrical features.The probability of failure(POF)for different categories of stope geometry,is calculated by considering two modes of failure;relaxation-related gravity driven(tensile)failure and rock mass brittle failure.The individual and interactive effects of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,are analyzed using a general multi-level factorial design.Finally,mathematical optimization techniques are employed to estimate the most stable stope conditions,by determining the optimal ranges for each stope’s geometrical parameter.

AN IMPROVED FOSM METHOD FOR CALCULATING FAILURE PROBABILITY OF WELDED PIPES WITH FLAWS

The R F first order second moment method will produce more error for calculating the reliability of welded engineering pipe structures when the failure function is seriously nonlinear and the random variables don′t serve as normal distribution. In order to increase the computing accuracy of reliability, an improved FOSM method is used for calculating the failure probability of welded pipes with flaws in this paper. Because of solving the problems of the linear expansion of failure function at the failure point and constructing equivalent normal variables, the new algorithm can greatly improve the calculating accuracy of probability of the welded pipes with cracks. The examples show that this method is simple, efficient and accurate for reliability safety assessment of the welded pipes with cracks. It can save more time than the Monte Carlo method does, so that the improved FOSM method is recommended for engineering reliability safety assessment of the welded pipes with flaws.

Modelling the impact of sea-level rise on urban flood probability in SE China

Urban drainage systems in coastal cities in SE China are characterized by often complex canal and sluicegate systems that are designed to safely drain pluvial flooding whilst preventing tidal inundation.However, the risk of coastal flooding in the region is expected to increase over the next 50-100 years, as urban areas continue to expand and sea-levels are expected to rise. To assess the impact of projected sealevel rise on this type of urban drainage system, a one-dimensional model and decision support tool was developed. The model indicated that although sea-level rise represents a significant challenge, flood probability will continue to be most influenced by rainfall. Events that are significant enough to cause flooding will most likely be minimally impacted by changes to the tidal frame. However, it was found that a sea-level rise of up to 1.2 m by 2010 would result in increased drainage times and higher volumes of over-topping when flooding occurs.

Flood risk assessment of check dams in the Wangmaogou watershed on the Loess Plateau of China

Check dams have been widely used in China’s Loess Plateau region due to their effectiveness in erosion and flood control.However,the safety and stability of the check dam decrease with the operation process,which increases the probability of dam failure during flood events and threatens local residents’ life and property.Thus,this study simulated flood process of the check dam failure in the Wangmaogou watershed in Yulin City,Shaanxi Province,China,calculated different types of inundation losses based on the flood inundation area within the watershed,and determined the number of key flood protection check dams by classifying the flood risk levels of the check dams.The results showed that 5 dams in the watershed were subject to overtopping during different rainfall return periods,which was related to their flood discharge capacity.Dam failure flood process showed a rapid growth trend followed by slow decrease,and the time of flood peak advanced with increase in the return period.After harmonization of evaluation scales,the magnitude of flood inundation losses can be ranked as:economic losses(212.409 million yuan) > life losses(10.368 million yuan) > ecological losses(6.433 million yuan).The risk value for both individual dams and the whole dam system decreases as the return period increases.The number of key flood protection check dams in the Wangmaogou watershed was 2,3,3,3,4,and 5 for floods with return periods of 10,20,30,50,100,and 200 years,respectively.The results provided a theoretical basis for the safe operation and risk evaluation of check dams in the Loess Plateau Hills watershed.

Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system's failure for concrete gravity dam

Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.

Numerical method of slope failure probability based on Bishop model

Based on Bishop's model and by applying the first and second order mean deviations method, an approximative solution method for the first and second order partial derivatives of functional function was deduced according to numerical analysis theory. After complicated multi-independent variables implicit functional function was simplified to be a single independent variable implicit function and rule of calculating derivative for composite function was combined with principle of the mean deviations method, an approximative solution format of implicit functional function was established through Taylor expansion series and iterative solution approach of reliability degree index was given synchronously. An engineering example was analyzed by the method. The result shows its absolute error is only 0.78% as compared with accurate solution.

Life-cycle failure probability analysis of deteriorated RC bridges under multiple hazards of earthquakes and strong winds

Engineering structures may be exposed to one or more extreme hazards during their life-cycles.Current structural design specifications usually treat multiple hazards separately in designing structures and there is a limited probabilistic basis on extreme load combinations.Additionally,the performance of engineering structures will be deteriorated by the aggressive environments during their service periods,such as chloride attack,concrete carbonation,and wind-induced fatigue.This study presents a probabilistic methodology to assess the time-dependent failure probability of RC bridges with chloride-induced corrosion under the multiple hazards of earthquakes and strong winds.The loss of cross-section area of reinforcements and the reduction in strength of reinforcing steel and concrete cover induced by the chloride attack are considered.Moreover,the Poisson model is employed to obtain the occurrence probabilities of the individual and concurrent earthquake and strong wind events.The convolution integral is used to determine the joint probability distribution of combined load effects under simultaneous earthquakes and strong winds.Numerical results indicate that the structural failure probability under multiple hazards increases significantly during the bridge′s life-cycle due to the chloride corrosion effect.The contribution of each hazard event on the total structural failure probability varies with time.Thus,neglecting the combined influences of multiple hazards and chloride-induced corrosion may bring erroneous predictions in failure probability estimates of RC bridges.

Failure probability analysis of coal crushing induced by uncertainty of influential parameters under condition of in-situ reservoir

The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir.To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing,a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion.Through this model,key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method.Then,to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing,the firstorder second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis.Using the presented method,the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin,China,and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed.The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover,for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m,the failure probabilities are equal to 1,which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.

A Fast Product of Conditional Reduction Method for System Failure Probability Sensitivity Evaluation

Systemreliability sensitivity analysis becomes difficult due to involving the issues of the correlation between failure modes whether using analytic method or numerical simulation methods.A fast conditional reduction method based on conditional probability theory is proposed to solve the sensitivity analysis based on the approximate analytic method.The relevant concepts are introduced to characterize the correlation between failure modes by the reliability index and correlation coefficient,and conditional normal fractile the for the multi-dimensional conditional failure analysis is proposed based on the two-dimensional normal distribution function.Thus the calculation of system failure probability can be represented as a summation of conditional probability terms,which is convenient to be computed by iterative solving sequentially.Further the system sensitivity solution is transformed into the derivation process of the failure probability correlation coefficient of each failure mode.Numerical examples results show that it is feasible to apply the idea of failure mode relevancy to failure probability sensitivity analysis,and it can avoid multi-dimension integral calculation and reduce complexity and difficulty.Compared with the product of conditional marginalmethod,a wider value range of correlation coefficient for reliability analysis is confirmed and an acceptable accuracy can be obtained with less computational cost.

Deterministic and probabilistic analysis of great-depth braced excavations:A 32 m excavation case study in Paris

The Fort d’Issy-Vanves-Clamart(FIVC)braced excavation in France is analyzed to provide insights into the geotechnical serviceability assessment of excavations at great depth within deterministic and probabilistic frameworks.The FIVC excavation is excavated at 32 m below the ground surface in Parisian sedimentary basin and a plane-strain finite element analysis is implemented to examine the wall deflections and ground surface settlements.A stochastic finite element method based on the polynomial chaos Kriging metamodel(MSFEM)is then proposed for the probabilistic analyses.Comparisons with field measurements and former studies are carried out.Several academic cases are then conducted to investigate the great-depth excavation stability regarding the maximum horizontal wall deflection and maximum ground surface settlement.The results indicate that the proposed MSFEM is effective for probabilistic analyses and can provide useful insights for the excavation design and construction.A sensitivity analysis for seven considered random parameters is then implemented.The soil friction angle at the excavation bottom layer is the most significant one for design.The soil-wall interaction effects on the excavation stability are also given.

Failure criteria of unreinforced masonry walls of rural buildings under the impact of flash floods in mountainous regions

Damage to rural buildings in mountainous regions caused by flash floods accounts for a significant proportion of economic losses from disasters.The unreinforced masonry(URM)wall is the most vulnerable structural element of rural buildings exposed to flash floods.The failure of a URM wall indicates damage to rural buildings in flash floods.Based on the yield line theory of out-of-plane damage of URM walls and the virtual work method,brittle failure criteria for URM walls under the impact of flash floods were established.According to the field investigation data of the 26 June 2020 flash flood event in Damawu Gully and the corresponding simulation results of FLO-2D,the disaster-causing process was analysed,and the failure criteria were validated.Three building parameters were identified to influence the flood-resistance of URM walls,including the mortar grade,the span-to-height ratio of the wall,and the number of floors of the rural building.The results showed that the cause of the 26June disaster was the diversion of a 50-year flash flood into the residential community on the alluvial fan.The affected buildings were constructed with hollow blocks and lacked flood-resistance reinforcement.The critical failure depth of a URM wall restrained at the top by ring beams(RBs)under hydrostatic load conditions is 1.17 to 1.20 times greater than that of a URM wall without RBs,and the difference is even more pronounced when lowerstrength mortar is used.The flood-resistance of a URM wall constructed with Mb 7.5 mortar and restrained by RBs is almost as strong as that of a URM wall constructed with Mb 20 mortar and without RBs.The span-to-height ratio of a URM wall should not be greater than 1.875 in this case.However,the flood-resistance of a URM wall with RB restraint is almost independent of the span-to-height ratio.The brittle fracture energy of masonry mortar is more crucial to the flood-resistance of 4-edge restrained URM walls if L/Z>1.875.The flood-resistance of the URM wall of the first storey increases linearly with the number of floors.Single-storey rural buildings should be given priority to the use of high-grade masonry mortar and high-density blocks to improve flood-resistance.The failure criteria and the influence laws of building parameters on the flood-resistance of URM walls can provide references for flash flood mitigation and flood-resistance reinforcement of rural buildings in mountainous regions of Southwest China.

Genetic Algorithm Optimization Model for Determining the Probability of Failure on Demand of the Safety Instrumented System

A more accurate determination for the Probability of Failure on Demand(PFD)of the Safety Instrumented System(SIS)contributes to more SIS realiability,thereby ensuring more safety and lower cost.IEC 61508 and ISA TR.84.02 provide the PFD detemination formulas.However,these formulas suffer from an uncertaity issue due to the inclusion of uncertainty sources,which,including high redundant systems architectures,cannot be assessed,have perfect proof test assumption,and are neglegted in partial stroke testing(PST)of impact on the system PFD.On the other hand,determining the values of PFD variables to achieve the target risk reduction involves daunting efforts and consumes time.This paper proposes a new approach for system PFD determination and PFD variables optimization that contributes to reduce the uncertainty problem.A higher redundant system can be assessed by generalizing the PFD formula into KooN architecture without neglecting the diagnostic coverage factor(DC)and common cause failures(CCF).In order to simulate the proof test effectiveness,the Proof Test Coverage(PTC)factor has been incorporated into the formula.Additionally,the system PFD value has been improved by incorporating PST for the final control element into the formula.The new developed formula is modelled using the Genetic Algorithm(GA)artificial technique.The GA model saves time and effort to examine system PFD and estimate near optimal values for PFD variables.The proposed model has been applicated on SIS design for crude oil test separator using MATLAB.The comparison between the proposed model and PFD formulas provided by IEC 61508 and ISA TR.84.02 showed that the proposed GA model can assess any system structure and simulate industrial reality.Furthermore,the cost and associated implementation testing activities are reduced.

Bayesian Estimation and Hierarchical Bayesian Estimation of Zero-failure Data

The zero_failure data research is a new field in the recent years, but it is required urgently in practical projects, so the work has more theory and practical values. In this paper, for zero_failure data (t i,n i) at moment t i , if the prior distribution of the failure probability p i=p{T【t i} is quasi_exponential distribution, the author gives the p i Bayesian estimation and hierarchical Bayesian estimation and the reliability under zero_failure date condition is also obtained.

Influence of rock property correlation on reliability analysis of rock slope stability: From property characterization to reliability analysis

Cohesion(c) and friction angle(φ) of rock are important parameters required for reliability analysis of rock slope stability. There is correlation between c and φ which affects results of reliability analysis of rock slope stability. However, the characterization of joint probability distribution of c and φ through which their correlation can be estimated requires a large amount of rock property data, which are often not available for most rock engineering projects. As a result, the correlation between c and φ is often ignored or simply assumed during reliability studies, which may lead to bias estimation of failure probability. In probabilistic rock slope stability analysis, the influence of ignoring or simply assuming the correlation of the rock strength parameters(i.e., c and φ) on the reliability of rock slopes has not been fully investigated. In this study, a Bayesian approach is developed to characterize the correlation between c and φ, and an expanded reliability-based design(RBD) approach is developed to assess the influence of correlation between c and φ on reliability of a rock slope. The Bayesian approach characterizes the sitespecific joint probability distribution of c and φ, and quantifies the correlation between c and φ using available limited data pairs of c and φ from a rock project. The expanded RBD approach uses the joint probability distribution of c and φ obtained through the Bayesian approach as inputs, to determine the reliability of a rock slope. The approach gives insight into the propagation of the correlation between c and φ through their joint probability into the reliability analysis, and their influence on the calculated reliability of the rock slope. The approaches may be applied in practice with little additional effort from a conventional analysis. The proposed approaches are illustrated using real c and φ data pairs obtained from laboratory tests of fractured rock at Forsmark, Sweden.

Towards multiple hazard resilient bridges:a methodology for modeling frequent and infrequent time-varying loads Part I,Comprehensive reliability and partial failure probabilities

The current AASHTO load and resistance factor design （LRFD） guidelines are formulated based on bridge reliability, which interprets traditional design safety factors into more rigorously deduced factors based on the theory of probability. This is a major advancement in bridge design specifications. However, LRFD is only calibrated for dead and live loads. In cases when extreme loads are significant, they need to be individually assessed. Combining regular loads with extreme loads has been a major challenge, mainly because the extreme loads are time variables and cannot be directly combined with time invariant loads to formulate the probability of structural failure. To overcome these difficulties, this paper suggests a methodology of comprehensive reliability, by introducing the concept of partial failure probability to separate the loads so that each individual load combination under a certain condition can be approximated as time invariant. Based on these conditions, the extreme loads （also referred to as multiple hazard or MH loads） can be broken down into single effects. In Part II of this paper, a further breakdown of these conditional occurrence probabilities into pure conditions is discussed by using a live truck and earthquake loads on a bridge as an example. There are three major steps in establishing load factors from MH load distributions： （1） formulate the failure probabilities; （2） normalize various load distributions; and （3） establish design limit state equations. This paper describes the formulation of the failure probabilities of single and combined loads.

Etiology of fulminant hepatic failure:experience from a tertiary hospital in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND: Fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) is not uncommon in our clinical practice in Bangladesh. There was a rise in acute hepatitis E virus (HEV) in Bangladesh after the 2004 floods. At that time, most of the country was under water for more than a month, leading to sewage contamination of the water supply. The aim of this study was to investigate the etiology of FHF in Bangladesh. METHODS: In this retrospective study, 23 patients with FHF who presented with severe impairment of hepato- cellular function (i.e. encephalopathy, coagulopathy and jaundice) within 6 months of onset of symptoms were included. There were 17 men and 6 women, aged from 18 to 32 years. Four of the women were pregnant. Patients were tested for markers for common hepatotrophic viruses. A relevant history was taken and the Patient Record Book of the Unit was reviewed. RESULTS: 56.52% patients (13/23) had HEV infection, and all were anti-HEV IgM-positive tested by ELISA. HBV infection was detected in 34.78% patients (8/23), all of whom were tested positive for either HBsAg or anti-HBs IgM by ELISA. 8.7% patients (2/23) had a positive history for intake of alcohol and/or drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Acute HEV infection is the leading cause of FHF in Bangladesh. Sewage contamination of the water supply following floods contributes to a higher incidence of HEV infection. HBV infection is also important.

Processing for Zero-Failure Data of the Products

In this paper, an estimation method for reliability parameter in the case of zero-failuare data-synthetic estimation method is given. For zero-failure data of double-parameter exponential distribution, a hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the failure probability is presented. After failure information is introduced, hierarchical Bayesian estimation and synthetic estimation of the failure probability, as well as synthetic estimation of reliability are given. Calculation and analysis are performed regarding practical problems in case that life distribution of an engine obeys double-parameter exponential distribution.

Barton-Bandis criterion-based system reliability analysis of rock slopes

Several potential failure modes generally exist in rock slopes because of the existence of massive structural planes in rock masses. A system reliability analyses method for rock slopes with multiple failure modes based on nonlinear Barton-Bandis failure criterion is proposed. The factors of safety associated with the sliding and overturning failure modes are derived, respectively. The validity of this method is verified through a planar rock slope with an inclined slope top and tension crack. Several sensitivity analyses are adopted to study the influences of structural-plane parameters, geometric parameters, anchoring parameters and fracture morphology on the rock slopes system reliability.