Effects of Agricultural Insurance on Poverty Alleviation under Uncertain Price of Agricultural Products

Poverty alleviation of the rural poor is the most arduous task in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in China, and agricultural insurance is an important financial tool for this task. Due to different capital levels, individual farmer will adopt production technology with different efficiency. In the case of uncertain price of agricultural products, this paper establishes a series of multiple equilibrium models based on agricultural risk and agricultural insurance. Under the catastrophe risk, the probability of falling into the poverty trap is calculated, and the effects of agricultural insurance on poverty alleviation are discussed respectively. It is found that agricultural insurance can effectively reduce the probability of falling into the poverty trap for the farmers whose initial capital is greater than a certain critical value. While the government subsidizes the premium of agricultural insurance by a certain proportion, the effect on poverty alleviation will be further improved.

保险保障、家庭资本增长与贫困陷阱

构建包含保险机制和不含保险机制的两个家庭资本随机增长模型,并给出家庭陷贫概率,以此研究保险保障在家庭摆脱重大突发事件引致的贫困陷阱中的作用。研究发现,家庭获得保险保障后的陷贫概率由可增长资本效应和保险补偿效应共同决定。相对富裕家庭购买保险能降低陷贫概率,且比例保险的赔付比例越高,陷贫概率越小。相对贫困家庭购买保险后的陷贫概率可能提高也可能降低,取决于临界资本对保费费率的敏感系数。无论是相对富裕家庭还是相对贫困家庭,随着保险公司附加保费系数的下降,两种家庭的陷贫概率都随之下降.

基于多重均衡模型的农业保险精准扶贫效果研究

农业保险在保障农业生产、稳定农民收入方面发挥了积极作用,已成为帮助我国农村贫困人口脱贫的一个重要工具。在精准扶贫理念下,本文将保险精算理论与多重均衡模型有效结合,建立基于农业风险-农业保险的多重均衡模型,通过数值模拟,量化农户在巨灾风险下的陷贫概率,讨论农业保险的扶贫效果,对农业保险有效扶贫对象进行识别,在差异化农业保险补贴和多样化农业保险产品设计方面进行了数值模拟,并提出了政策建议。