Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall and Flood Risks in Yopougon, Abidjan, Southeast Côte d’Ivoire from 1971 to 2022

Yopougon, located in the western part of the Autonomous District of Abidjan, is the most heavily populated municipality in Côte d’Ivoire. However, this area is prone to floods and landslides during the rainy season. The study aims to assess recent flood risks in the municipality of Yopougon of the Autonomous District of Abidjan. To achieve this objective, the study analyzed two types of data: daily rainfall from 1971 to 2022 and parameters derived from a Numerical Field and Altitude Model (NFAM). The study examined six rainfall parameters using statistical analysis and combined land use maps obtained from the NFAM of Yopougon. The results indicated that, in 67% of cases, extreme rainfall occurred mainly between week 3 of May and week 1 of July. The peak of extreme rainfall was observed in week 2 of June with 15% of cases. These are critical periods of flood risks in the Autonomous District of Abidjan, especially in Yopougon. In addition, there was variability of rainfall parameters in the Autonomous District of Abidjan. This was characterized by a drop of annual and seasonal rainfall, and an increase of numbers of rainy days. Flood risks in Yopougon are, therefore, due to the regular occurrence of rainy events. Recent floods in Yopougon were caused by normal rains ranging from 55 millimeters (mm) to 153 mm with a return period of less than five years. Abnormal heavy rains of a case study on June 20-21, 2022 in Yopougon were detected by outputs global climate models. Areas of very high risk of flood covered 18% of Yopougon, while 31% were at high risk. Climate information from this study can assist authorities to take in advance adaptation and management measures.

Assessment of Flood Risk in Cotonou Areas Surrounding NokouéLake Due to the Effect of Climate Change

Cotonou, like West African cities, experiences recurrent flooding. This work aimed to study the effect of climate change on the risk of flooding in Cotonou’s zoos on the periphery Nokoué Lake. We analysed climate data (rainfall and temperature) in Cotonou over the period 1953 to 2013, the flow of the Ouémé River at Bonou, and the variation in the height (elevation) of Lake Nokoué. The results of the analysis of temperatures over the period 1953-2013 show an upward break from 1987 onwards (+0.7°C between 1987 and 2013), while for rainfall, no break was observed over the same period. None of the 13 rainfall indices calculated is statistically significant, but they show a relatively stable or declining trend except for the average daily rainfall, the maximum number of consecutive dry days and the 95th percentile, which all show a slightly upward trend. We have shown that the rainfall recorded in Cotonou does not reveal any abnormal or exceptional character over the last ten years, on the one hand, and the flooding of Ouémé River influences that of Nokoué Lake, on the other hand. This study shows that the floods observed in this area are more related to the effect of climate change.

Flood Risk Mapping of the Benin Municipalities at the Intersection of the Coastal Sedimentary Zone and the Crystalline Surface

Climate change and population growth have led to the increase and/or intensification of flooding becoming a major issue. The objective of this study is to visualize flooding risk of municipalities at the intersection of the coastal sedimentary zone and the crystalline surface. The methodology adopted is based on geomatic approach, which involves documentary research, processing and assisted classification using remote sensing images and multi-criteria analysis of the Geographic Information System (GIS). Flooding risk is very high at 8.85% in Djidja, Toffo, Zè and Bonou municipalities. In other municipalities such as Agbangnizoun, Abomey, Bohicon, Za-Kpota and Cove, it is high of 46.85%. To the Southeast of the study area, it is located on the eastern and western banks of Oueme Valley. The medium risk represents 26.35% and is located in the municipalities of Ouinhi and Adjohoun. The other municipalities have a low rate of 17.95%. Risk modeling has made it possible to access the various levels of rising water that can cause flooding. Land-use planning decisions can be influenced by the results of this study.

Mapping of Flood Risk Zones Using Multi-Criteria Approach and Radar a Case Study of Ala and Akure-Ofosu Communities, Ondo State, Nigeria

Floods are among the worst natural catastrophes, devastating homes, businesses, public buildings, farms, and crops. Studies show that it’s not the flood itself that’s deadly but people’s vulnerability. This study investigates the Ala and Akure-Ofosu flood-prone zones;identifies elements that cause flooding in the study area;classifies each criterion by its effect;develops a flood risk map;estimates flood damage using Sentinel-1A SAR data;compares AHP results. Literature study and GIS-computer database georeferenced fieldwork data. Photos from the 2020 Sentinel 2A satellite have been organized. Built-up area, cropland, rock, the body of water, and forest Land use and cover, slope, rainfall, soil, Euclidean River Distance, and flow accumulation were mapped. These variables were integrated into a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) using GIS tools, resulting in the creation of a flood risk map that categorizes the region into five risk zones: 5% of the area is identified as high-risk, 21% as low-risk, and 74% as moderate-risk. Copernicus SAR data from before and after the flood were processed on Google Earth Engine to map flood extent and ensured that the MCA map accurately reflected flood-prone areas. Periodic review, real-time flood susceptibility monitoring, early warning, and quick damage assessment are suggested to avoid flood danger and other environmental problems.

Flood Risk Assessment in the Lower Valley of Ouémé, Benin

In response to the increased frequency of flood events in recent years, it has become crucial to enhance preparedness and anticipation through precise flood risk assessments. To this end, this study aims to produce updated and precise flood risk maps for the Lower Valley of Ouémé River Basin, located in the South of Benin. The methodology used consisted of a combination of geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis, including Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods to define and quantify criteria for flood risk assessment. Seven hydro-geomorphological indicators (elevation, rainfall, slope, distance from rivers, flow accumulation, soil type, and drainage density), four socio-economic vulnerability indicators (female population density, literacy rate, poverty index, and road network density), and two exposure indicators (population density and land use) were integrated to generate risk maps. The results indicate that approximately 21.5% of the Lower Valley is under high and very high flood risk, mainly in the south between Dangbo, So-Ava, and Aguégués. The study findings align with the historical flood pattern in the region, which confirms the suitability of the used method. The novelty of this work lies in its comprehensive approach, the incorporation of AHP for weighting factors, and the use of remote sensing data, GIS technology, and spatial analysis techniques which adds precision to the mapping process. This work advances the scientific understanding of flood risk assessment and offers practical insights and solutions for flood-prone regions. The detailed flood risk indicator maps obtained stand out from previous studies and provide valuable information for effective flood risk management and mitigation efforts in the Lower Valley of Ouémé.

Rain-Flow Modelling Using the GR4J Model for Flood Risk Management in the Oti Watershed (Togo)

In recent years, West Africa has been confronted with hydro-climatic disasters causing crises in both urban and rural areas. The tragedy in the occurrence of such events lies in the recurrent aspect of high water and associated floods. The devastating floods observed in Africa’s major rivers have revealed the need to understand the causes of these phenomena and to predict their behavior in order to improve the safety of exposed people and property. The aim of this study is to reproduce flood flows using the GR4J (Rural Engineering Four Daily Parameters) model to analyze flood risk in the Oti watershed in Togo. Daily data on flows (m3/s), potential evapotranspiration (mm/day) and average precipitation (mm) over the basin from 1961-2022 collected at the National Meteorological Agency of Togo (ANAMET) and the Department of Water Resources in Lome, were used with the R software package airGR. The Data from the West African Cordex program from 1961-2100 were used to analyze projected flows. The results obtained show the GR4J model’s effectiveness in reproducing flood flows, indicating that observed flows are well simulated during the calibration and validation periods, with KGE values ranging from 0.73 to 0.85 at calibration and 0.62 to 0.81 at validation. These KGE values reflect the good performance of the GR4J model in simulating flood flows in the watershed. However, a deterioration in the KGE value was observed over the second validation period. Under these conditions, there may be false or missed alerts for flood prediction, and the use of this model should be treated with the utmost caution for decision-support purposes.

Application of Risk Probability Evaluation Method to Offshore Platform Construction

Offshore project risk concerns many influence factors with complex relationship, and traditional methods cannot be used for the evaluation on risk probability. To deal with this problem, a new method was developed by the combination of improved technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution method, analytical hierarchy process method and the network response surface method. The risk probability was calculated by adopting network response surface analysis based on the state variable of a known event and its degree of membership.This quantification method was applied to an offshore platform project, Bonan oil and gas field project in Bohai Bay in June 2004.There were 7 sub-projects and each includes 4 risk factors.The values of 28 risk factors, ranging from 10^-6 to 10^-4, were achieved. This precision conforms to the international principle of as low as reasonably practically.The evaluation indicates that the values of comprehensive level of construction group and ability of technical personnel on the spot are relatively high among all risk factors, so these two factors should be paid more attention to in offshore platform construction.

Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Southwestern Coast of Benin to the Risk of Coastal Erosion and Flooding

The coastal zone of Benin is inherited from the last marine oscillations of the Quaternary. A rich and very fragile environment, it presented until the 1960s, a shoreline in dynamic equilibrium over the entire 125 km of coastal line. Since the 1960s, with the construction of important development infrastructures (ports, dams, groins), the Beninese coast is now subject to risks of coastal erosion and seasonal flooding due to the overflow of lagoon water bodies. The present study, based on socio-economic surveys in the communes of Ouidah, Comè and Grand Popo, exposes the extent of coastal risks and socio-economic and environmental damage in the southwestern coastal zone of Benin. The results show that in terms of land, 2.9 ha and 5.7 ha of land have been permanently lost to coastal erosion in the communes of Ouidah and Grand Popo respectively. Similarly, 212 ha of crops of all types were affected by the flooding, including 35 ha destroyed, i.e. 6.67 ha, 11.3 ha in Comè, 4.67 ha Ouidah and 14 ha Grand Popo. Also, 6435 buildings were affected, and 4235 huts were damaged. In addition, working tools, food stocks and other items are counted among the losses recorded by coastal hazards with their corollaries of diseases. The cost of losses and damages in the 08 districts amount to 418,000,000f cfa of which 266,000,000f cfa of damage and 152,000,000f cfa of loss.

Modeling and Mapping Flood Hazard with a Flood Risk Assessment Tool: A Case Study of Austin, Texas

As a hazard, flood is an extremely important indicator of how a city is resilient to waterborne diseases and epidemics. Over many decades, flood as a hazard has been a major factor in inducing displacement of marginalized section of the people. Austin city within Central Texas has been identified as one of the major hotspots for flooding in recent decades. Thus, the objectives of the paper are two folded: 1) Empirically, we analyzed and mapped out the susceptibility levels from the factors of physical environments to assess the risk of urban flooding (rainfall data, surface water bodies and topography);in Austin, Texas and 2) Methodologically, we created a re-useable ArcGIS scripting tool that can be used by researchers to automate the process of flood risk modelling with certain criteria. The paper showcases a novel time sensitive building of a tool which will enable better visibility of flood within the city of Austin.

Risk Evaluation of Rainstorm and Flood in the Upper Reaches of Hunhe River (Qingyuan Section) Based on the FloodArea Model

By using data of hourly rainfall with all of the meteorological stations in the upper reaches of Hunhe River (Qingyuan Section), the digital elevation model, the land use and the disasters data etc., the storm flood process which happened on 16 August 2013 is reproduced simulated based on the rainstorm flooding of FloodArea model, also the flooding simulation and its effectiveness have been carried out. Conclusions are drawn as follows: there is a sharp rise of the flood depth falling behind the change of rainfall three or four hours. As the accumulation of the precipitation, the water level has increased, and when the precipitation process stops, the flood pooled into midstream and downstream gradually. According to the disaster investigation, in both the aspects of flooding scope and flooding depth of warning spots, the simulation result of FloodArea model agrees with the fact. It indicates that the FloodArea model generates good simulation effect in the upper reaches of Hunhe River (Qingyuan Section). Combined with population and GDP information, in the whole river, about eighty-three thousand people were affected by flooding, also one billion and five hundred seventy five million RMB of gross domestic product was lost. When the flood depth deepens and the flooding scope increases, correspondingly the loss rate of population and GDP rises and the flood risk increases.

Risk Assessment and Simulation on Storm Flood of the 100-Year Return Period in Hunhe River Basin

Based on the meteorological and geographic information data, with statistical method and the FloodArea model, the extreme daily rainfall of the 100-year return period in Hunhe River basin was established, through the simulation of rainstorm and flood disaster, characteristics of flood depth in warning spot Cangshi village in the upstream of the river were analysed, and possible effect on community economy was also evaluated. Results showed that, the precipitation of 100-year return period occurred, the flood depth has been below 1.0 meter in the most areas of Hunhe River basin, the depth was between 1.0 meter and 2.5 meters in the part areas of Hunhe River basin, and the flood depth has been exceed 2.5 meters in a small part of Hunhe River basin. After the beginning of precipitation, the flood was concentrated in the upper reaches of the river. With the accumulation of precipitation and the passage of time, the flood pools into midstream and downstream. Precipitation lasted for 24 hours, the warning spot was flooded in the beginning of precipitation. With the accumulation of precipitation, water level of the river increases gradually. The depth of warning spot has passed 1.0 meter at the 07 time of the whole process, and the maximum value of flood depth at warning spot was 1.083 meters that occurred at the 19 time. The flood depth of warning spot decreased gradually after the precipitation stopping, and the depth has been below 0.2 meters, the flood of upstream ended. Up to the end of the upstream flood process, in the whole river, about one million five hundred and sixty thousand people were affected by flooding, and thirty-eight billion and two hundred million RMB of gross domestic product were lost, in addition, dry land and paddy field were affected greatly, but woodland and grassland were less affected.

Assessing Future Flooding Risk in a Coastal Lagoon Using Hydrogeological Approaches and Analysis of the 2021 Flood Event: A Case Study of Tasi-Tolu Lagoon, Dili, Timor-Leste

This study aims to apply a hydrogeological approaches and analysis of the 2021 flood event of Tasi-Tolu Lagoon to achieve four specific goals. Firstly, the study seeks to determine the natural characteristics of the lagoon, which include factors such as size, depth, water quality, and ecosystem composition. Secondly, the influence of precipitation on the water volume in the lagoon will be examined. This analysis involves assessing historical rainfall patterns in the region, as well as the amount and frequency of precipitation during the 2021 flood event. Thirdly, the hydrogeologic and geologic conditions of the lagoon will be evaluated. This involves examining factors such as the type and structure of the soil and bedrock, the presence of aquifers or other underground water sources, and the movement of water through the surrounding landscape. Finally, the study seeks to assess the risk of future flooding in Tasi-Tolu Lagoon, based on the insights gained from the previous analyses. Overall, this study’s goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the hydrogeological factors that contribute to flooding in Tasi-Tolu Lagoon. This knowledge could be used to inform flood mitigation strategies or to improve our ability to predict and respond to future flooding events in the region.

Community Based Flood Risk Management: Local Knowledge and Actor’s Involvement Approach from Lower Karnali River Basin of Nepal

Connecting to the disaster risk reduction (DRR) studies, community-based initiatives are found to be more effective in both developed and developing countries, with a specific focus on the empowerment of local communities to build resilience. Building on social capital theory, the paper investigates on local knowledge (LK) practices experienced by the actors in an emerging economy using the community-based flood risk management (CB-FRM) approach. The qualitative research method was used by collecting data from focused group discussions, and interviews with the key informants including actors from local governments and non-government organizations. Additionally, informal discussions, field visits, and desk studies were undertaken to support the findings. The findings reveal that the local communities carry out various local knowledge experiences to respond during disaster management phases. They own a creative set of approaches based on the LK and that empowers them to live in the flood-prone areas, accepting the paradigm shift from fighting with floods to living with that. The local actor’s involvement is recognized as an essential component for CB-FRM activities. Yet, their program’s implementation is more oriented towards humanitarian assistance in emergency responses. Even, they often overlook the role of LK. Additionally, the results show a high level of presence of local communities during the preparedness and recovery phases, while NGOs and local governments have a medium role in preparedness and low in recovery phase. The lack of local ownership has also emerged as the major challenge. The research provides valuable insights for integrated CB-FRM policies by adopting to LK practices.

The Risk of Flooding to Architecture and Infrastructure amidst a Changing Climate in Lake Baringo, Kenya

Climate change has grown more apparent in recent years with people becoming more aware of its potentially disastrous consequences. Flooding is one of the many consequences of a changing climate in Kenya known to cause immense devastation resulting in the loss of lives and property. This paper discusses the risk of flooding in Kenya as one of the many outcomes of climate change in the face of urgency to adapt Kenya’s built environment to flooding which is likely to continue to prevail in the decades as a result of the looming climate change. It also sought to evaluate the physical, traumatic, and psychological effects on communities affected by flood events. This cross-sectional survey, both qualitative and quantitative in nature, executed between 13th January 2021 and 14th July 2021 with 132 respondents along the western shoreline of Lake Baringo, near Marigat Town focused on the flood levels, structures, their materials, and quantities. Results show that the area covered by Lake Baringo increased by 18% from 236 km2 to 278 km2. The depth of floods ranged from 0.3 m to 1.2 m and exceeded 1.6 m during heavy rainfall up to 3.2 m with homes completely submerged by the lake. Flooding was experienced more by residents living in low areas nearer to the shoreline of the lake as compared to those living on higher grounds. 100% of the structures didn’t have the architectural technology to withstand the impacts of flooding with 59% of housing made of corrugated iron sheets both on wall and roofing, 22% of mud houses roofed with either corrugated iron sheets, 10% being timber with thatch and only 8% stoned walled houses. This predisposed all the residents to the harmful impacts of flooding. Piled sandbags by locals as a mitigating measure proved inadequate to withstand the forces of the rising waters. Flood walls were built around local lodges near the lake but the rising water level quickly breached these defences. The study recommends that county and national governing authorities develop flood adaptation strategies for resilience. These include long-term land-use planning, the establishment of early warning systems, evacuation plans, identification of vulnerable or high-risk populations, measures to ensure water quality, sanitation, and hygiene. Flood-resilient architecture including stilt and floating houses that mechanically rise and fall with respect to the highest water mark are recommended during flood events. Bridges on swollen rivers and resilient construction materials like reinforced concrete are to be used for sustainable development for flood risk adaptation.

Analysis and Zoning of Rainstorm Flood Disaster Risk in Huaihe River Basin

Taking the rainstorm flood disaster of Huaihe River basin as the research object,according to the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters,starting from the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body,the weight of each impact factor was calculated by using AHP. By using spatial analysis and statistical function of GIS,the integrated risk chart of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin was obtained. The results showed that the high risk areas of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin mainly distributed in the southern part of Henan,the central northern part of Anhui and eastern part of Jiangsu Province. Due to higher fatalness of inducing factors in southern Henan,there was high risk in the region. Central Anhui and east Jiangsu were not only high-fatalness zones but also high vulnerability zones of population and economy.

A global analysis of coastal flood risk to the petrochemical distribution network in a changing climate

The global petroleum distribution network already faces a significant threat of disruption due to annual coastal flooding of major refining centers,which is expected to further increase with the effects of climate change.This study considers the impacts that sea level rise projections might have on the annual flood risk to coastal refineries,and how regional disruptions propagate across the network.Both the annual regional risk in terms of expected production disruption under a range of climate scenarios,as well as the expected production disruption due to a major flood event impacting refining hubs of high importance are assessed throughout the 21 st century.These risks are propagated across the network to model the global impact of coastal flood-induced refining disruptions.This analysis provides insights on the relative risks that different climate scenarios and flood events pose globally,informing potential mitigation and adaptation needs of critical facilities.Due to the highly interconnected nature of the global petroleum product distribution network,these results highlight the need for mitigation considerations for even regions with low domestic production disruption risk due to coastal flood hazards,as disruptions in remote regions can have cascading consequences resulting in significant disruption to petroleum product supply around the world.Furthermore,such results can inform decisions regarding technology transitions or energy diversification in light of the new understanding of climate risks to coastal refineries and the global petroleum distribution network.

Uniform asymptotics for finite-time ruin probability in some dependent compound risk models with constant interest rate

Consider two dependent renewal risk models with constant interest rate. By using some methods in the risk theory, uniform asymptotics for finite-time ruin probability is derived in a non-compound risk model, where claim sizes are upper tail asymptotically independent random variables with dominatedly varying tails, claim inter-arrival times follow the widely lower orthant dependent structure, and the total amount of premiums is a nonnegative stochastic process. Based on the obtained result, using the method of analysis for the tail probability of random sums, a similar result in a more complex and reasonable compound risk model is also obtained, where individual claim sizes are specialized to be extended negatively dependent and accident inter-arrival times are still widely lower orthant dependent, and both the claim sizes and the claim number have dominatedly varying tails.

ON THE HYDRAULIC FAILURE PROBABILITY OF FLOOD CONTROL DAMS

In flood control dams it is not only the failure to prevent flood larger than their design carrying capacity, but also the uncertainties of hydraulic factors that cause disasters. In general, the hydraulic risk is not considered in most of the hydrological analysis in floodproofing plan and design. In this paper, a method of evaluating the hydraulic risk is developed by employing risk theory, and the concept can easily be extended to other types of risk analysis. As a result, it is possible not to consider the hydraulic resks when the design hydrologic risk of flood control dam is lger. Otherwise, the hydraulic risks must be noticed. The research is very helpful for the development of the flood control theory used at present.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Modelling the impact of sea-level rise on urban flood probability in SE China

Urban drainage systems in coastal cities in SE China are characterized by often complex canal and sluicegate systems that are designed to safely drain pluvial flooding whilst preventing tidal inundation.However, the risk of coastal flooding in the region is expected to increase over the next 50-100 years, as urban areas continue to expand and sea-levels are expected to rise. To assess the impact of projected sealevel rise on this type of urban drainage system, a one-dimensional model and decision support tool was developed. The model indicated that although sea-level rise represents a significant challenge, flood probability will continue to be most influenced by rainfall. Events that are significant enough to cause flooding will most likely be minimally impacted by changes to the tidal frame. However, it was found that a sea-level rise of up to 1.2 m by 2010 would result in increased drainage times and higher volumes of over-topping when flooding occurs.