A Hybrid Programming Model for Optimal Production Planning under Demand Uncertainty in Refinery

生产在不确定性下面计划在植物宽的优化被看作最重要的问题之一。首先，在这篇文章，有一致分发假设的一个随机的编程模型为精炼厂生产在需求不确定性，然后与随机的编程合并线性编程模型的一个混合编程模型下面计划被开发由一个重量因素的被建议。随后，片明智的线性近似功能被导出并且适用在一致分发假设下面解决混合编程模型。当时，案例研究证明线性近似算法是有效的解决混合编程模型，与错误≤ 0 .5% 一起偏差 / 平均数≤ 2 0% 。模拟结果显示有一个适当重量因素(0.1-0.2 ) 的混合编程模型能有效地在需求不确定性下面改进最佳的运作的策略，完成比线性编程模型和随机的编程的更高的利润有大约 1.5% 和 0.4% 改进的分别地。

The Supply and Demand of Agricultural Products in China Based on Balanced Diet

Promoting agricultural production and ensuring the supply of agricultural products has always been the main task of agricultural development in China,but the agricultural production in China has not yet been combined with the Chinese residents' dietary needs to formulate reasonable development goals,with a certain blindness in production. According to the dietary standards in The Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents developed by the Chinese Nutrition Society,we calculate the demand of various types of agricultural products in China under the conditions of balanced diet. In comparison with the output of various types of agricultural products in China at present,we find that the output of most of agricultural products in China has exceeded the reasonable demand of the Chinese residents under the conditions of balanced diet. Therefore,adjusting the agricultural production structure in China and advocating balanced diet has become an important way to solve the problem of balance between supply and demand of agricultural products.

Study on Customer Demands for Product Innovation

In order to improve the satisfaction degree of customers’individual demands for products and reduce the risk of the product innovation,the characteristics of customer demands for product innovation are analyzed,and the type and content of customer demands are discussed.Then the framework of customer demands acquisition for product innovation is established.Final- ly,the prototype system of customer demands information acquisition and product customization for product innovation which takes mobile phone as the example is developed successfully.

Study on Customer Demands for Product Innovation

In order to improve the satisfaction degree of customers’ individual demands on products and reduce the risk of the product innovation,the characteristics of customer demands for product innovation are analyzed,and their type and content are discussed. Then the framework of customer demands acquisition for product innovation is established. Finally,the prototype system of customer demands information acquisition and product customization for product innovation which takes mobile phone as the example is developed successfully.

Development of a Tool Cost Optimization Model for Stochastic Demand of Machined Products

Cutting tool management in manufacturing firms constitutes an essential element in production cost optimization. In order to optimize the cutting tool stock level while concurrently minimizing production costs, a cost optimization model which considers machining parameters is required. This inclusive modeling consideration is a major step towards achieving effectiveness of cutting tool management policy in manufacturing systems with stochastic driven policies for tool demand. This paper presents a cost optimization model for cutting tools whose utilization level is assumed to be optimized in respect of the machining parameters. The proposed cost model in this research incorporated the effects of diversified machining costs ranging from operational through machining, shortage, holding, material and ordering costs. The machining of parts was assumed to be a single cutting operation. Holt-Winters forecasting technique was used to create a stochastic demand dataset for a test scenario in the production of a high-end automotive part. Some numerical examples used to validate the developed model were implemented to illustrate the optimal machining and tool inventory conditions. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the influence of varying production parameters such as: machine uptime, demand and cutting parameters on the overall production cost. The results showed that a desired low level of tool storage and holding costs were obtained at the optimal stock levels. The machining uptime had a significant influence on the total cost while tool life and cutting feed rate were both identified as the most influential cutting variables on the total cost. Furthermore, the cutting speed rate had a marginal effect on both costs and tool life. Other cost variables such as shortage and tool costs had significantly low effect on the overall cost. The output trend showed that the feed rate is the most significant cutting parameter in the machining operation, hence influencing the cost the most. Also, machine uptime and demand significantly influenced the total production cost.

Status of China's Refined Oil Products Consumption and Forecast on Demand During the“11th Five-Year Plan”Period

作者在这工业使用了二个普通方法，我。e。“消费系数方法”和“弹性系数趋势方法”，在 2010 预报精制的油产品需求。通过分析并且比较二预报结果，对在 2010 的完成的产品油的要求一年将在 220 ～ 240 百万吨的范围，这被投射。另外，从关于总数的担心给产品消费上油在 2020 超过 6 亿吨 / 年，作者提出针对油产品的保存和其他的燃料的申请的建议和措施。

The Single-Vendor-Single-Buyer Integrated Production-Shipment Model with Stock Dependent Demand Rate

In the integrated production-shipment models for the single-vendor-single-buyer system presented hitherto, the demand rate of items is treated as a constant. However, many researchers have observed that the presence of more quantities of the same product tends to attract more customers. This suggests that the demand rate should depend on the stock level. This paper presents a single-vendor-single-buyer production-shipment model with the stock dependent demand rate, based on the demand rate linearly depending upon the stock level at any instant of time.

An Inventory Model of Production with Level Dependent Demand Allowing Few Defective Items

This paper considers a model regarding the products with finite life which allows defective items in reproduction and causes a small amount of decay. The market demand is assumed to be level dependent linear type. The model has also considered the constant production rate which stops after a desired level of inventories and that is the highest level of it. Due to the market demand, defective item and product’s decay, the inventory reduces to the zero level where again the production cycle starts. With a numerical search procedure, the proof of the proposed model has been shown. The objective of the proposed model is to find out the total optimum inventory cost, optimum ordering cost and optimum ordering cycle.

A Time Dependent Inventory Model for Exponential Demand Rate with Constant Production Where Shelf-Life of the Product Is Finite

In this paper a time dependent inventory model is developed on the basis of constant production rate and market demands which are exponentially decreasing. It advances in quest of total average optimum cost considering those products which have finite shelf-life. The model also considers the small amount of decay. Without having any sort of backlogs, production starts. Reaching at the desired level of inventories, it stops production. After that due to demands along with the deterioration of the items it initiates its depletion and after certain periods the inventory gets zero. The decay of the products is level dependent. The objective of this paper is to find out the optimum inventory cost and optimum time cycle. The model has also been justified with proving the convex property and by giving a numerical example.

供给与需求不确定情形下的供应链回购契约与补偿契约比较

在供应链存在不确定性的情况下,企业之间通过签订有效的契约(如补偿契约或回购契约)对供应链成员的行为进行约束。研究了需求和生产不确定同时存在时,一个两级供应链中的制造商和零售商在一个定价-订购-生产-销售周期内进行斯坦伯格博弈的模型,各成员的目标均为实现自身利润最大化。从理论上证明了使利润最大化的最优投入产量和最优订购量均衡存在且唯一,揭示了生产成本、批发价格、生产与需求的不确定性等因素对均衡的影响。最后,从制造商和零售商角度比较了其在不同契约机制下的利润水平。对于制造商,当零售商补偿单价相对于制造商生产成本较高时,多数情况下补偿契约优于回购契约;当零售商补偿单价相对于制造商生产成本较小时则恰好相反。对于零售商,多数情况下回购契约优于补偿契约,唯一的特殊情况是制造商产品盈利空间相对较小、生产不确定较大以及需求不确定较小。

生鲜农产品需求预测方法综述

生鲜农产品对于我国经济发展和社会稳定具有重要影响,但生鲜易腐性结合需求的不确定性带来了巨大的损失,因此寻找合适的需求预测方法是有必要的。文章结合生鲜农产品需求预测相关文献,依据数据分析方式对其分类,梳理总结两类需求预测方法的研究成果,进行系统性综述,最后给出未来发展方向,以期为新型市场环境下生鲜决策提供研究参考。

旅游新质生产力:供需特质、创新取向与新旧之辨

新质生产力是以科技创新为主导的生产力,广泛地渗透到旅游领域,深刻地变革了传统旅游业的生产方式和旅游者消费行为。然而,旅游新质生产力的内涵以及应用范围尚未得到清晰界定。因此,本文围绕旅游新质生产力,从供给侧和需求侧辨析旅游新质生产力的表现和特征。本文认为:旅游新质生产力在供给侧方面具有创新驱动性,在需求侧更强调人本内涵,且将旅游供给与需求紧密地融合在一起;旅游新质生产力通过助推旅游数字生产创新、强化旅游产业链协调发展、延伸和创造新的旅游产品及体验等方式推动了旅游业高质量发展。最后,本文分析了旅游新质生产力与旧质生产力的关系,以期为探索旅游业发展路径提供有益参考。

我国重要农产品供需变化趋势与供给保障能力提升策略

基于对我国重要农产品生产、消费和进口历史变化情况的分析,以及对2035年前变化趋势的预测,认为我国重要农产品供给保障面临国内增产边际效应递减和利用国际市场风险增大的双重挑战,应从统筹国内和国际两个大局、发展和安全两件大事出发,谋划好现代化新征程重要农产品供给保障思路。一方面,应从供需两侧入手扩产能、控消费,构建农业综合生产能力内在增长机制,针对农民务农种粮和地方重农抓粮逻辑采取差异化扶持政策,推进节粮减损、倡导节约消费;另一方面,应实施农产品进口多元化战略,提高海外供应链稳定性可靠性;此外,还应推动建立统一、联动的全国农产品大市场,完善农产品储备调节制度。

中国式产能过剩:历史考察及对新发展阶段治理的启示

改革开放以来,我国经历了四轮较为明显的产能过剩:20世纪90年代的消费品过剩阶段、2003—2007年的部分工业品过剩阶段、2011—2015年的产能过剩全面加剧阶段、2016—2020年的重点行业治理取得阶段性成果阶段,各阶段产能过剩的背景、表现、治理措施及效果不尽相同。历史考察发现,中国式产能过剩具有以下特征:产能过剩跟经济波动密切关联、产能过剩问题反复出现、产能过剩与落后产能问题并存、产能过剩形成机制深刻复杂。在新发展阶段,治理产能过剩问题既要推动存量过剩产能退出,更要从根本上构建预防过剩产能反复的长效机制,建议重点关注以下工作:完善市场化法治化机制,构建过剩产能高效退出机制;推动政府治理机制改革,探索政府与市场结合新模式;加快科技自主创新,推动供需结构匹配;加快构建“管资本”国有资产监管体制,重点推动国有企业产能利用率提升。

国内消费者需求偏好与贸易高质量发展

本文聚焦国内消费者需求偏好视角来考察中国贸易高质量发展,采用2000—2014年中国海关数据库、中国工业企业数据库、全国标准信息公共服务平台数据库、WIOD和CEPII数据库,研究了国内消费者需求偏好升级对中国企业进出口产品质量的影响。研究发现:国内消费者需求偏好升级能够有效提升企业进口产品质量,但没有促进企业出口产品质量提升,即中国企业出口产品质量与国内需求偏好升级背离;供需失衡和国内国际标准不对接是导致出口产品质量背离的重要原因;在需求侧,高端需求外移导致国内市场供需脱节,而在供给侧,价值链上游产业和中间产品的供给未能跟上需求偏好升级的步伐则进一步加剧了出口产品质量的背离。因此,把握国内消费者需求偏好升级的契机,构建供需适配的国内大循环体系,推动国内国际标准对接以及价值链上游的供给侧结构性改革,有助于实现贸易高质量发展。

三水河流域农业生产空间水资源时空匹配性分析与调控研究

水资源短缺是长期制约农业经济发展的关键因素之一.针对以雨养农业为主的三水河流域农业用水需求大、水资源短缺以及用水效率低的突出问题,该研究采用水平衡理论和Penman-Monteith法,在年度、月度与作物层面上分别得到2020年三水河各子流域单元农业生产空间的供、需水量,分析供需匹配的时空特征,并判断供需矛盾的等级与类型.结果表明,三水河流域农业生产空间水资源供需匹配存在空间和时间错位性,水资源匹配性北高南低;年度农业用水整体处于“水平衡-临界匮缺”的匹配性等级,农业主产小流域水匮缺程度相对严重;月度农业生产空间水资源匹配性时空差异显著,盈余型、匮缺型和盈匮相持型小流域并存;作物用水匹配性整体表现为苹果>玉米>小麦,苹果用水的匹配关系接近于平衡,为流域用水方面的优势作物.据此,研究提出农业生产空间调控建议,为提高三水河流域农业生产水资源利用效率和优化农业空间布局提供参考.

2023年中国石油焦市场分析及2024年预测

截至2023年年底,中国延迟焦化能力达到1.48亿吨/年。2023年中国石油焦产量达到3173万吨,主营炼厂产量占比为57%,地方炼厂占比43%;以高硫焦为主,占比80%以上。2023年,中国进口石油焦1602万吨,出口石油焦仅19万吨,净进口量1583万吨。2023年中国石油焦表观消费量达到4516万吨。虽然中国石油焦价格总体呈上升态势,但与上年相比,2023年中国石油焦价格暴跌。预计2024年中国石油焦市场的国内产量为3150万吨,净进口量为1400万吨,库存变化为下降200万吨,表观消费量为4750万吨。石油焦作为“减油增特”的特色炼油产品之一,对中国成品油市场调节能力非常有限,建议生产企业应该随着中国石油焦需求动能的变化,积极拓展负极材料相关客户,根据其数量、质量需求灵活调整石油焦生产和销售策略。

面向用户需求的移动医疗检测产品服务设计

突发性公共卫生事件频繁发生,目前针对智慧医疗在卫生检测中的研究集中于实验结果环节,对过程环节的服务设计研究少之又少,探索医疗如何结合新技术去应对突发性公共卫生事件、更好地为用户服务为研究目的。通过对不同用户的深入调研,明确产品机会缺口,经过量化分析得到用户关键需求,确定具体设计目标,建立智慧医疗检测交互系统平台及服务流程,最后完成服务系统平台的软硬件载体设计。为实现不同用户需求的医疗检测产品提供方向,也为应对公共卫生事件提供思路。