Identification of Antioxidant Additives in Food Products Sold in Dakar Markets

The use of food additives in industrial production has the advantage of improving sensory properties, technological quality and extending the shelf life of foods. Among the most widely used additives are antioxidants, which prevent oxidation, browning and rancidity reactions in foods. However, the strong presence of these additives on the market is not without risks for human health, and should be controlled to guarantee food safety. Analysis of the risks associated with consumption of foods containing these additives requires, among other things, information on the frequency of use of these additives in various consumer products. The aim of this study is therefore to identify the antioxidants present in industrial food products distributed in Dakar. The methodology adopted consists of a qualitative analysis based on the identification of additives from food labels. Investigations were carried out in 9 stores, 4 superettes and 2 supermarkets located in different districts of Dakar. The results revealed the presence of 12 antioxidant additives, dominated by citric acid (53%) and ascorbic acid (29%). These studies have also highlighted the simultaneous use of several antioxidants in the same food product. Moreover, for some artificial antioxidants identified antioxydant such as BHA and BHT, health risks are associated with their consumption. The results of this study open up prospects for the development of information databases on food additives.

Risk Evaluation on Logistics Finance of Agricultural Products Based on Fuzzy-AHP Model

The development of logistics finance business for agricultural products is the best way to realize the common interests of logistics enterprises,small and medium-sized agricultural product enterprises and financial institutions,which will contribute to the development of China's new socialist rural economy and the construction of " two-oriented society". As the agricultural products have some special attributes,it's easy to create the risk in carrying out the logistics finance business. The paper constructs a risk evaluation indicator system for logistics finance of agricultural product,and uses the Fuzzy-AHP model to evaluate. The results show that the comprehensive risk level is normal risk,which shows that third-party logistics enterprises can carry out the logistics financial business of agricultural products,but the risks from logistics enterprises and agricultural collateral need to be prevented.

Risk-opportunity analyses and production peak forecasting on world conventional oil and gas perspectives

To investigate the situation of conventional oil and gas, this paper examines the global oil and gas discoveries, proved reserves, production, consumption and price. All the influencing factors can be subjected to risk and opportunity analyses, so in the paper, we build upon a risk-opportunity analysis framework, which is a new train of thought. To forecast the peak time of oil and gas production, we used the methods of multi-Hubbert model forecasting and data forecasting. Our results showed that the world oil production will reach a peak between 2010 and 2015 and the gas production will reach a peak around 2030 Oil peak is coming and gas peak is on the way. The main purpose of forecasting oil and gas production peak is give people enough time for preparing mitigation and adaptation plans. This means taking decisive action well before the problem is obvious.

Researches on Risk Evaluation of Green Agro-product Closed Supply Chain

Closed supply chain is a superior form of management model of chain supply and an effective means of improving the modernization of agro-product circulation. Based on the research results of the current literatures on supply chain risk and agro-product supply chain, related subjects of the agro-product closed supply chain involving production, management and consumption are studied and analyzed and the primary risking factors in the supply chain system are classified as environmental risk, system risk, information risk, management risk and quality risk. Risk of agro-product closed supply chain is evaluated by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the values are acquired. The result shows that risk of agro-product closed supply chain is moderate with relatively high risk, which basically accords with the present actual situations. It can be seen from the index weights of various levels that the key first-level indices influencing the risks are system risk, information risk, quality and safety risk and the key second-level are the coordinating and controlling ability of core enterprises, the implementation of information traceability and the construction of quality safety system. Therefore, risk of agro-product closed supply chain should be reduced by taking prevention and controlling measures mainly from these aspects.

Impacts of Improved Supplemental Irrigation on Farm Income, Productive Efficiency and Risk Management in Dry Areas

This paper provides empirical evidence that improved supplemental irrigation (ISI) can be justified on both environmental and economic grounds. Results of a stochastic frontier model which explicitly and simultaneously accounts for technical inefficiency and production risk applied to data collected from 513 wheat farms in the rainfed areas of Syria show that the typical adopter farmer obtained yield and productive efficiency gains of 6% and 7% respectively. A stochastic dominance criterion also showed that the adopter farmers got 10% and 13% reductions in risk of obtaining yield levels below 4 tons/ha and 3 tons/ha respectively. Given its adoption level of 22.3% in 2010, ISI led to the production of 52 thousand metric tons (6%), more wheat and conservation of 120 million cubic meters of water (10%). ISI has the potential to reduce total irrigation water use by upto 45% and for further increases in yield if accompanied with sprinklers and other improved agronomic practices, thereby enhancing food security and environmental sustainability in the country. An important policy implication of these findings is that wider dissemination of ISI along with other complementary agronomic practices in postwar Syria could be a viable option to be considered by national and international efforts for the restoration and rehabilitation of agriculture in the country.

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Products Supply-Chain Finance Based on D-S Theory

Agricultural products supply-chain finance, as one of the solutions to the issue of “capital problems” of agriculture, countryside and farmers, has proposed a kind of characteristics model to assess the risk of agricultural production, processing and marketing, which can improve the issue of farmers and enterprises lacking of funds. This model is proposed on the basis of uncertain information processing method of D-S theory and its data combination rules, combined with the “discount rate” correction model, and it includes a risk assessment index system of agricultural products supply-chain finance, fully considering the five aspects of production, processing, marketing, cooperation of supply chain and collateral. At last, a taro supply chain is taken for example. And the risk assessment of its supply-chain finance based on this model has been discussed in detail. And the result has proved that the model and its algorithm are practical and feasible.

Financial Innovation Way of Avoiding Risk of Climate Disasters in Food Production:Weather Index Insurance

Climate change will lead to a variety of climate disasters, and climate disasters have a greater impact on China＇s food production. Weather index insurance is a new financial way to avoid risk of climate disasters effectively in China＇s food production. Firstly, the relationship between weather index insurance and food production in China was elaborated, and then the development status, advantages and disadvantages of weather index insurance in China at present were analyzed. Finally, some countermeasures against the problems of weather index insurance in China were put forward.

Research on Agricultural Product Price Risk and Risk Management

There are a variety of reasons for agricultural product price risk,and drastic volatility in agricultural product price can give a tremendous negative impact on agriculture and even whole society. The paper argues that the agricultural product price risks include( i) price risk caused by decrease in yield and quality of agricultural products due to natural disasters;( ii) price risk caused by actual change of the market supply and demand;( iii) price fluctuation risk caused by the change of the price of the related products;( iv) sharp price volatility risk caused by market speculation;( v) risk caused by periodic property of agricultural products and lack of elasticity of agricultural demand;( vi)risk caused by lack of government management. Agricultural product price risk poses great harm to farmers,small and medium-sized agricultural operators and general consumers. This paper brings forward the specific recommendations for solving agricultural product price risk.

Prevention of Agricultural Market Risks by Agricultural Production Entities in Hubei Province

Different agricultural production and operation entities face the same market risks.Since there is a huge gap in market risk prevention ability between agricultural market operation entities,the gap of risk prevention effect is huge.Using statistical analysis and comparative analysis methods,this paper analyzed characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural market risks and pointed out characteristics of agricultural market and special characteristics of agricultural production and operation entities in Hubei Province.Based on SWOT analysis on market risk prevention ability of agricultural production and operation entities in Hubei Province,it came up with three recommendations,including upgrading agricultural production and operation entities,enlarging the production and operation scale,and strengthening the ability of balancing the market demand and supply and bargaining power and pricing power.

Productivity Improvement Model without Increasing Operation’s Risk and Fatigue

Productivity improvement of an operation without increasing operation risk and operation fatigue that increase the needed relaxation allowance is an important subject in process design. This research subject stimulates researchers to focus on improving the productivity of the whole production process by changing the technique of performing significant operations in the process. However, two important issues that affect the implementation of any new technique were not considered in the pervious research works. These are the risk magnitude of the new technique on the workplace environment and the fatigue level that affect human's health. In this paper, a model was developed that maximize the productivity of the production process by selecting the best technique to perform significant process operations among proper candidate techniques that improve these operations productivity while minimizing these operations risk and fatigue.

Consumers' Perception of Risks,Awareness of Products and Willingness to Pay: A Case Study of Organic Milk

Based on survey data from Ji'nan city and some other cities in Shandong province,this paper conducted a research on consumers' perception degree of the food safety risk,and the awareness degree about organic food. Then taking organic milk as an example,the factors affecting the customers' buy willingness to pay for organic milk were analyzed by binary logit model and the willingness to pay was also calculated. The results show that the consumers' food safety risk perception degree is high,and the awareness about organic food is low. The consumers' age,level of education,whether the family has children below 12 years old,whether the family has a man( woman) older than 60years,health situation self-evaluation,organic food cognition and food safety risk perception have significant effect on customers' willingness to pay organic food. According to the calculation,the consumers were willing to pay a price premium of 60% for organic milk above ordinary milk.

Modeling optimal oil production paths under risk service contracts

Due to the rigorous fiscal terms and huge potential risk of risk service contracts,optimizing oil production paths is one of the main challenges in designing oilfield development plans.In this paper,an oil production path optimization model is developed to maximize economic benefits within constraints of technology factors and oil contracts.This analysis describes the effects of risk service contract terms on parameters of inputs and outputs and quantifies the relationships between production and production time,revenues,investment and costs.An oil service development and production project is illustrated in which the optimal production path under its own geological conditions and contract terms is calculated.The influences of oil price,service fees per barrel and operating costs on the optimal production have been examined by sensitivity analysis.The results show that the oil price has the largest impact on the optimal production,which is negatively related to oil price and positively related to service fees per barrel and operating costs.

Identifying Risk at the Conceptual Product Design Phase: A Web-Based Software Solution and Its Evaluation

This paper introduces a web-based application that enables engineers or designers to identify risks during the conceptual phase of a product design. This software application was developed based on the Risk in Early Design (RED) method developed by Author, Stone, and Tumer. The RED method demonstrates that risks can be identified in the early phase of product design by relating recorded historical failure information to product functions. Based on the concept of RED theory and current industry needs, the goals of a web-based RED application were defined. These goals are the intended benefits or functionalities that the web-based RED application would provide. In addition, a multi-level evaluation framework was adopted to determine how well the application meets the needs of various organizations. As part of the evaluation, a questionnaire was developed and administered to a sample industrial and academic user group. The results of the evaluation indicate that the web-based RED software application meets many of the goals to help an organization in performing product risk analysis.

风险叠加背景下我国粮食安全面临的挑战及对策

受地缘冲突、极端气候、贸易保护主义日益盛行等因素影响,全球粮食市场不稳定性显著增强。一方面,印度等主要粮食出口国陆续实施粮食出口限制政策以保障本国粮食安全;另一方面,厄尔尼诺现象下极端天气频发,叠加地缘政治经济冲突,引发新一轮国际粮价大幅上涨,冲击我国粮食进口国际供应链。为保障我国的粮食安全,应进一步优化饲料粮生产结构,有效降低粮食产后损失率,积极参与全球粮食安全治理,推动中国粮企布局全球粮食产业链供应链,并加大期货市场风险防范力度。

农牧民乳制品质量安全的风险感知、政府质量监管的信任与购买意向和行为研究

为了促进农村牧区乳制品消费市场的健康发展,本研究依据内蒙古自治区的东部、中部及西部5个盟市的544份农牧户问卷调查结果,在对农牧民乳制品质量安全的风险感知、对乳制品加工企业的信任情况、对乳制品品牌的满意度、对政府监管乳制品市场的信任度及农牧民对乳制品购买意向和行为统计描述分析的基础上,运用结构方程模型验证它们之间的关系。结果表明:农牧民对乳制品质量安全表现出一定的担忧,但对乳制品加工企业的信任情况、乳制品品牌的满意度、政府监管乳制品市场的信任度较高;此外,农牧民对乳制品有比较高的购买意向,且农牧民购买乳制品的种类以保质期较长的奶茶粉、奶粉等为主,购买种类比较单一;农牧民对乳制品质量安全的风险感知、质量水平的信任、政府监管的信任及品牌的信任均通过购买意向在1%水平上显著影响其购买行为。其中,除了风险感知极显著负向影响购买行为外,其余三个因素均正向影响购买行为。基于此,乳制品企业在产品质量的提高方面要不断下功夫,政府要加大对乳制品市场监管的力度,不断提高公信力,加大农牧区乳制品消费的宣传工作,提高农牧民对乳制品消费的信心和认知,引导农牧民对乳制品多样化的消费,以促进乳业在农牧区的可持续发展。

Dietary exposure estimates of trace elements in selected agricultural products grown in greenhouse and associated health risks in Korean population

This study focuses on the dietary exposure of trace elements (TEs) through the intake of various agricultural products grown in greenhouse, and its corresponding health risks at different age categories in Korean population. It was observed that the mean contents of TEs found in selected agricultural products were well below their guidelines. Mean and 95th percentile intake estimates of TEs were ranged from 0.02 to that considerable attention should be paid to the potential health risks of TEs through intake of various foodstuffs and other exposure pathways.

Risk Analysis of Chemical Hazards Based on the Case of EU Children’s Products Recalled and Study on the Reasonable Limitation of Harmful Element in Toys

The trade situation about China’s export of toy products to the EU was introduced. The recall characteristics of China’s toy products by the EU “Safety Gate” in terms of recall frequency, notified countries, taken measures, and reasons for recall were analyzed in this paper, and the risk factors of human health of unqualified products in terms of chemical hazards were studied in this paper. It is found that phthalate, boron, plumbum and cadmium were the main factors. Assessment of risk for boron in toys was conducted. It is suggested to limit the boron element in Slime: the limit of migration of boron in Slime toys for 3- to 6-year-old children shall be less than 704 mg/kg, and the limitation of migration of boron in Slime toys for 7- to 12-year-old children shall be less than 1268 mg/kg.

基于多源数据的全国三大主粮生产风险评估研究

【目的】“一省、一作物、一费率”的粗放式定价模式带来逆选择、道德风险、经营乱象等问题,严重制约我国农业保险的健康可持续发展。费率定价离不开风险评估,开展全国三大主粮生产风险评估、制作风险地图,为实现我国主粮保险费率精准化、推进主粮保险高质量发展提供依据。【方法】围绕我国三大主粮作物(水稻、小麦、玉米),收集整理长时间序列的三大风险数据源(单产、灾情和保险数据),以单产数据为核心,结合灾情数据和保险数据,开展基于多源数据的风险评估建模,通过县级风险的低估调整和省级风险的秩相关调整,计算全国三大主粮省级和县级的纯风险损失率,采用分位数法开展全国三大主粮风险分区,制作风险地图。【结果】省级风险的秩相关调整以灾情风险结果为主,保险风险结果为次。经调整,水稻秩相关系数由0.610提升到0.766,小麦由0.547提升到0.748,玉米由0.576提升到0.760。调整后,全国三大主粮平均的风险低估系数为20%—40%,说明全国范围内利用县域单产开展风险评估的平均低估程度在2—4成,玉米低估系数要高于水稻和小麦。从省级尺度上看,黑龙江三大主粮生产风险均处于极高水平,内蒙古水稻、小麦,吉林和辽宁水稻、玉米生产风险处于极高水平,山西小麦生产风险处于极高水平;从县级尺度上看,水稻生产的极高风险(纯风险损失率>4.4%)主要集中在东北三省绝大部分种植县域、内蒙古东北部与东北三省接壤的种植县域。小麦生产的极高风险(纯风险损失率>6.3%)主要集中在内蒙古绝大部分种植县域。玉米生产的极高风险(纯风险损失率>6.9%)主要集中在内蒙古与东北三省、山西和陕西接壤的种植县域,辽宁、安徽、江西的大部分种植县域。从全国833个产粮大县上看,玉米极高和高风险县域数量占比最高(28.1%),水稻次之(25.1%),小麦最低(17.2%),说明玉米整体风险水平较高,小麦最低。【结论】研究揭示了我国三大主粮作物生产风险大小与空间差异。从全国平均水平上看,玉米风险最大(平均纯风险损失率为5.0%)、小麦次之(3.1%)、水稻最小(2.6%);从空间差异上看,东北和中南地区水稻风险较高,华北和华东地区小麦风险较高,华北、东北和华东地区玉米风险较高。水稻、小麦和玉米其他级别风险的空间差异特征也不一致。

基于GRA-ISM-HMM的广州市肉及肉制品安全风险评估

该研究旨在利用广州食品安全风险监测2015年至2020年针对肉及肉制品样本的检测数据,构建肉及肉制品的安全风险评估模型,从而了解广州市该段时间内肉及肉制品的食品安全风险及其时变特点。该研究采取灰色关联分析方法和解释结构模型建立风险指数,并基于该指标值作为隐马尔可夫模型的观测值探讨观测背后的隐含风险状态。分析结果显示,2015~2020年所有样本综合风险指数结果都在[0,0.45]之间,总体风险都较小,其中2019年风险最高;将风险指数进行等级划分,显示2015~2020年风险等级为[1,2,2,2,3,1];通过HMM分析得到这六年的隐藏风险等级为[0,1,1,1,2,0],与观测风险结果一致,且HMM预测2021年风险等级为1,即表明广州肉及肉制品风险往良好态势发展。最后,进行风险差异原因分析,发现各肉制品分类之间有差异,其中腊肠、鸡肉和腊肉的风险指数较高于其他种类,而2019年增加腊肠和腊肉的检测是风险增加的一个原因。总体来说,广州肉及肉制品风险较小,但依旧需要监督改善。