Managing project risks and uncertainties

This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

Model of generic project risk element transmission theory based on data mining

In order to construct the data mining frame for the generic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was presented with the definitions. From the model, data mining method was used to acquire the risk transmission matrix from the historical databases analysis. The quantitative calculation problem among the generic project risk elements was solved. This method deals with well the risk element transmission problems with limited states. And in order to get the limited states, fuzzy theory was used to discrete the historical data in historical databases. In an example, the controlling risk degree is chosen as P(Rs≥2) ≤0.1, it means that the probability of risk state which is not less than 2 in project is not more than 0.1, the risk element R3 is chosen to control the project, respectively. The result shows that three risk element transmission matrix can be acquired in 4 risk elements, and the frequency histogram and cumulative frequency histogram of each risk element are also given.

Project risk control of underground engineering geological disaster in pumped-storage power station

This paper introduced the construction of the pumped-storage power station （PSPS）. In the excava- tion of underground power house, the principle of excavation in thin layer and support in time with real time monitoring are adopted. The excavation blasting parameters are adjusted timely. Through these, the excavation quality can be guaranteed, the surrounding rock can be prevented from being damaged and the deformation of power house side wall can be controlled. Five security defense lines have been adopted to solve anti-seepage and drainage in the major underground projects.

Software Development Project Risk Management: A New Conceptual Framework

The frequently observed positive impact of adopting risk management strategies on projects’ overall outcome has led many software development organizations to appreciate its significant role in the pursuit of cost reduction, schedule overruns decrease and, generally, improved performance. In line with this issue, this study investigates a wide range of relevant literature, proposes a new conceptual framework for managing risk in software development projects, introduces new conceptual factors, brings out their interrelation, and suggests new prospects and managerial implications for both practitioners and academics. The conceptual framework has two basic axes. Firstly, the determination of the impact of constructs such as Project Characteristics, Project Risk Management Team, Risk Identification Approaches, and Project Quality on the level of Project Risk. The majority of the items used to measure these constructs are proposed for the first time in the literature. Additionally, the assessment of the impact of Project Risk (and all of the dimensions that compose it), simultaneously with the estimation of the impact of the Residual Performance Risk on the final subjective and objective Project Performance could provide project managers with a better picture of the effectiveness and adequacy of their risk management practices.

Study of Multistage Project Risk Identification-Assessment Process Based on Objective Orientation

Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.

HOW BIG DATA MAKES CONSTRUCTION PROJECT RISK INTACT

Construction project is not a standalone engineering maneuver.It is closely linked to the well-being of local communities in concern.The city renovation in Beijing down center for Olympic 2008 transformed many antique architecture and regional landscape.It gave a world-recognized achievement in China s modem development and manifested a major milestone in China's economic development.In the course of metro construction projects,there are substantial interwoven municipal structures influencing the success of the projects,which including,but the least,all underground cables and ducts,sewage system,the power consumption of construction works,traffic diversion,air pollution,expatriate business activities and social security.There are many US and UK project insurance companies moving into Asia Pacific.They are doing re-insurance business on major construction guarantee,such as machinery damage,project on-time,power consumption,claims from contractors and communities.Environmental information,such as water quality,indoor and outdoor air quality,people inflow and lift waiting time play deterministic roles in construction's fit-touse.Big Data is a contemporary buzzword since 2013,and the key competence is to provide real time response to heuristic syndrome in order to make short-term prediction.This paper attempts to develop a conceptual model in big data for construction

Risk Analysis of the Development of Sustainable Dongtan

Dongtan is set to be developed as a sustainable urban-rural integration,aiming to attract a wide range of commercial and leisure investments.The Shanghai Industrial Investment Corporation(SIIC),the largest international investment group owned by the Shanghai municipal government,is leading the Dongtan project in partnership with Arup.The project’s risks are categorized into eight major groups:(1)Force majeure,(2)people-related risks,(3)financial and economic risks,(4)political and country risks,(5)environmental risks,(6)completion-related risks,(7)design-related risks,and(8)technology risks.Among these,political risk is particularly notable for its high probability and significant impact.Effective project risk management is essential to foresee and address uncertainties that could jeopardize the project’s objectives and timelines.Appropriate strategies must be implemented to manage and mitigate these risks.

Risk Assessment and Prediction of Construction Project Based on 1D-CNN-Attention-BP

In order to solve the problem of low accuracy of construction project duration prediction, this paper proposes a CNN attention BP combination model project risk prediction model based on attention mechanism, one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1d-cnn) and BP neural network. Firstly, the literature analysis method is used to select the risk evaluation index value of construction project, and the attention mechanism is used to determine the weight of risk factors on construction period prediction;then, BP neural network is used to predict the project duration, and accuracy, cross entropy loss function and F1 score are selected to comprehensively evaluate the performance of 1d-cnn-attention-bp combined model. The experimental results show that the duration risk prediction accuracy of the risk prediction model proposed in this paper is more than 90%, which can meet the risk prediction of construction projects with high accuracy.

Differentiation degree combination weighting method for investment decision-making risk assessment in power grid construction projects

Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such projects and effectively prevent investment risks,this paper proposes an investment optimization decision-making method for multiple power grid construction projects under a certain investment scale.Firstly,an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and development requirements of China’s power grid projects was performed.Thereafter,the time sequence and holographic method was adopted to conduct multi-dimensional,multi-perspective risk assessment of different parts of power grid projects,and a holographic risk assessment index system was developed.Moreover,an investment decision model considering the comprehensive risk based on combination weighting was developed according to the output and input of power grid construction projects.A new combination weighting optimization method that takes into account the investment willingness of enterprises was designed to improve the current weighting evaluation methods.Finally,the validity and applicability of the proposed evaluation method were verified by case examples.

From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

Starting with the meanings of the terms “risk” and “uncertainty,””he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of “risk” and “uncertainty” interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective, and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

Projected Flood Risks in China Based on CMIP5

Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data,the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China are projected under the RCP8.5 for the near term period(2016–2035), medium term period(2046–2065) and long term period(2080–2099),respectively. The results show that regions with high flood hazard levels are mainly located in Southeast China, while the vulnerability to flood hazards is high in eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, future high flood risk levels will mainly appear in the eastern part of Sichuan, in major part of East China, and in the provinces of Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The major cities in Northeast China, some areas in Shaanxi and Shanxi, as well as the coastal areas in southeastern China will also encounter high flood risks. Compared with the baseline period, the regional flood risk levels will increase towards the end of the 21 st century, although the occurrences of floods change little. Due to the coarse resolution of the climate models and the indistinct methodology for determining the weight coefficients,large uncertainty still exists in the projection of flood risks.

Research on Quality Risk of EPC Hydropower Projects in Vietnam

Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are on the way to become the most usual form of contracting applied by the private sector to undertake construction works on large scale Hydropower projects. If EPC contract management is not implemented and controlled properly. Quality is the first important factor for any contractors who involve in the hydropower project execution. The purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate risks causing not good quality of EPC hydropower projects in Vietnam. In addition, the study also provided the recommendations for project practitioners to mitigate the impacts of those identified risks. The findings of this study can be a good managerial reference for project management teams who are working in other countries that have similar economic and investment environments to Vietnam to get their EPC construction project completed on quality, thus will ensuring the benefits to the government, the investors, the contractors, and the parties involved.

Establishment and optimization of project investment risk income models on the basis of probability χ distribution

In this paper, two kinds of models are presented and optimized for project investment risk income on the basis of probability χ distribution. One kind of model being proved has only a maximal value and another kind being proved has no extreme values.

Research on Subcontractor Risk of EPC Hydropower Project in Vietnam

Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are becoming the most popular form to undertake construction works on large-scale hydropower projects.?The EPC general contractors in Vietnam have been coped with lots of difficulties during the construction phase of hydropower projects, resulting in significant schedule delays and cost overrun. One of the reasons is poor Subcontractors capacity.?In order to overcome above, the current study attempts?to research on identification and control Subcontractors risks of delay process of EPC hydropower project in Vietnam.?Through summarizing international research achievements of previous researches relating on EPC hydropower projects combining with analysis characteristics of developing construction of EPC hydropower projects in Vietnam, the current study pointed out all kinds of subcontractor risk of delay process of EPC hydropower project in Vietnam;?a questionnaire with 18 risk elements was designed and then delivered to experts in EPC hydropower project management area. Based on the risk model, 11 main risk elements were identified which can be categorized into 3 groups.?Lastly, the current study proposed suggestions to reduce or avoid risks as well as approach to control risks.?Furthermore, the findings of this study can be a good managerial reference for project management teams who are working in other countries that have similar economic and investment environment to Vietnam to get their EPC construction project completed on schedule, thus ensuring the benefits to the government, the investor, the contractor, and the parties involved.

A Review on the Role of Risk Management (RM) and Value Engineering (VE) Tools for Project Successful Delivery

Both in developed and in developing countries, the construction industry is regarded as an economic investment activity without forgetting its significant relationship with national economic development due to its great contributions to the national gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. Concerning construction processes, both risk management (RM) and value engineering (VE) techniques have commonalities from the beginning up to the completion of the project due to enhancing the project value/quality, meeting the project deadline, and reducing overall project cost. VE includes resolving the uncertainty of project objectives and ensuring that the project is delivered in a value for money way. The key point of RM is to solve the uncertainty of the project itself and its results to ensure that the specifications are achieved within the prescribed time, cost, and quality constraints. This review work is comparatively and collectively focused on assessing the role of RM and VE tools for project successful delivery. It studies the points of difference and common features of the two aspects in terms of construction project delivery. So, this study concluded that in construction RM tool cannot be the chief aim of the all parties involved in the project execution because sometimes it produces itself negative results and reduces project management success. Therefore, RM needs a strong combination with VE due to the dependence of the target in identifying and assessing risks by considering the highest performance and lowest cost. The integration of RM and VE combination in a single study would avoid duplication of work and deliver better value for money thereby leading to better project outcomes.

Impacts of the Financial Factors on Schedule Delays Risk of the International Contracting Projects: Evidence from Highway BOT Pro-jects in Vietnam

Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.

Research on Risk Evaluation Method for International Engineering Projects

Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of the projects. The muhilayer evaluation index system for the international engineering project risk assessment is proposed and constructed, which consists of 8 I-grade indexes and 24 II-grade indexes as policy risk, market risk, resource risk, and technical scheme risk, schedule risk, funding risk, personnel risk and management risk. And then the self-evaluation and benchmarking evaluation methods are applied to evaluate the international engineering project risk, and established the corresponding mathematical models. Finally, a project evaluation example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the mathematical models.

Geological uncertainty and risk:implications for the viability of mining projects

Computerized geological models are the basis of modern mine design,planning and production.A sound,validated geological model is essential to the success of a min- ing project.However,due to the complexity of geology surrounding deposits,geological models inherit uncertainty,or error.This geological uncertainty may significantly affect the risk profile of a mining project during its design and operational phases.Methodologies for quantifying geological uncertainty and risk have been developed by CRC Mining and the University of Queensland,Australia and successfully applied to case studies.This paper discussed the implications of geological uncertainty and risk to a coal mining project,and presents advances for quantifying geological/geotechnical uncertainty and risk.A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the technology developed.