Scenario-based modeling and solving research on robust weapon project planning problems

Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense inter-influence of weapon systems and involves modelling, assessment, and optimization procedures.The contents of this paper are mainly divided into three parts: first,the WPP processes are analyzed, and related elements are formulated to transform the qualitative problem to mathematics form;second, the value evaluation model of WPP solutions is proposed based on two criteria of total capability gap and total capability dispersion; third, two robustness optimization models are constructed based on the absolute robustness criterion and the robustness deviation criterion to support the robustness optimization process under multi-scenario. Finally, a case is studied to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.

Scenario-based approach for project portfolio selection in army engineering and manufacturing development

The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.

CMIP6情景模式比较计划(ScenarioMIP)概况与评述

情景模式比较计划(ScenarioMIP)是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)最重要的子计划之一。该子计划基于不同共享社会经济路径可能发生的能源结构所产生的人为排放及土地利用变化,设计了一系列新的情景预估试验,为未来气候变化机理研究以及气候变化减缓和适应研究提供关键的数据支持。文中将重点介绍ScenarioMIP的试验设计及模式参与情况,并对其应用前景加以讨论和展望。

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Future Scenario Simulation of the Trade-offs and Synergies of Mountain Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Dabie Mountains Area, China

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.

Projected Flood Risks in China Based on CMIP5

Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data,the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China are projected under the RCP8.5 for the near term period(2016–2035), medium term period(2046–2065) and long term period(2080–2099),respectively. The results show that regions with high flood hazard levels are mainly located in Southeast China, while the vulnerability to flood hazards is high in eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, future high flood risk levels will mainly appear in the eastern part of Sichuan, in major part of East China, and in the provinces of Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The major cities in Northeast China, some areas in Shaanxi and Shanxi, as well as the coastal areas in southeastern China will also encounter high flood risks. Compared with the baseline period, the regional flood risk levels will increase towards the end of the 21 st century, although the occurrences of floods change little. Due to the coarse resolution of the climate models and the indistinct methodology for determining the weight coefficients,large uncertainty still exists in the projection of flood risks.

Uncertainty of Climate Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings Due to Different Land Use Scenarios

The A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences （IAP RAS） climate model （CM） of intermediate complexity is extended by a spatially explicit terrestrial carbon cycle module.Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM are performed forced by the reconstructions of anthropogenic and natural forcings for the 16th to the 20th centuries and by combined SRES （Special Report on Emission Scenarios） A2-LUH （Land Use Harmonization） anthropogenic scenarios for the 21st century.Hereby,the impact of uncertainty in land-use scenarios on results of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model is tested.The simulations of the model realistically reproduced historical changes in carbon cycle characteristics.In the IAP RAS CM,climate warming reproduced in the 20th and 21st centuries enhanced terrestrial net primary production but terrestrial carbon uptake was suppressed due to an overcompensating increase in soil respiration.Around year 2100,the simulations the model forced by different land use scenarios diverged markedly,by about 70 Pg （C） in terms of biomass and soil carbon stock but they differed only by about 10 ppmv in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide content.

Glacier systems response on climate change by the definite climatic scenario:northeast Russia

In previous papers, we have presented a method for the assessment of the evolution of mountain glacier systems, in which various climate scenarios were used to study the response of glacier systems to climate change. The aim of this study is to assess the evolution of northeastern Russia glacier systems using output from the A-31 climate scenario, and to compare the responses of the different mountain glacier systems to the scenario. We used temperature and precipitation output from the A-31 scenario to assess future evolution of the glacier systems in the Chukchi and Kolyma highlands(for the projection period of 2011–2030), and the Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata, and Chersky ranges(for the projection period of 2041–2060). The paper provides a brief description of the general method that was used and more details on the data and methods used for each glacier system.Responses of glacier systems were analyzed on the basis of four parameters: mean glacier area, system mean altitudinal range, changes in equilibrium line altitude, and glacier area by the end of the projection period. The relationships between the factors received support an applicability of the A-31 scenario to the study of glacier system evolution.

Projection of Future Climate over the Koshi River Basin Based on CMIP5 GCMs

This paper analyses the climate projections over the Koshi river basin obtained by applying the delta method to eight CMIP5 GCMs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The GCMs were selected to cover the full envelope of possible future ranges from dry and cold to wet and warm projections. The selected coarse resolution GCM outputs were statistically downscaled to the resolution of the historical climate datasets. The scenarios were developed based on the anomaly between the present reference period (1961-1990) and the future period (2021-2050) to generate transient climate change scenarios for the eight GCMs. The analyses were carried out for the whole basin and three physiographic zones: the trans-Himalaya, high-Himalaya and middle mountains, and southern plains. Future projections show a 14% increase in rainfall during the summer monsoon season by 2050. The increase in rainfall is higher over the mountains than the plains. The meagre amount of rainfall in the winter season is projected to further decrease over both the mountain and southern plains areas of the basin for both RCPs. The basin is likely to experience warming throughout the year, although the increase in winter is likely to be higher. The highest increase in temperature is projected to be over the high Himalayan and middle mountain area, with lower increases over the trans-Himalayan and southern plains areas.

Generalized projective synchronization between two chaotic gyros with nonlinear damping

In this paper, the chaotic generalized projective synchronization of a controlled, noised gyro with an expected gyro is investigated by a simple control law. Based on the theory of discontinuous dynamical systems, the necessary and sufficient conditions for such a synchronization are achieved. From such conditions, non-synchronization, partial and full synchronizations between the two coupled gyros are discussed. The switching scenarios between desynchronized and synchronized states of the two dynamical systems are shown. Numerical simulations are illustrated to verify the effectiveness of this method.

基于“模块-情景-项目”课程模式的高职语文教学改革——以晋中职业技术学院室内设计专业为例

高职语文课程因缺乏“双师型”教师队伍,统编教材统一性有余而个性化不足,教学模式单一,缺乏类型特征等,导致其无法为专业和产业提供有效的支持,面临着边缘化或被取消的尴尬处境。高职语文课程必须改革,教师深入企业了解岗位需求,制定符合专业特色的课程标准,并编写相应的职业情景活页教材,采用“模块-情景-项目”的课程模式,综合运用情景教学、项目教学和模块化教学,让学生在真实生产任务和职业情境中提升职业能力,为地方经济发展服务。

增强现实技术在护理本科生车祸救援情境模拟教学中的应用研究

目的探讨基于增强现实(augmented reality,AR)的融合投影实训平台在护理本科急危重症护理学大型车祸救援情境模拟教学中的应用效果。方法结合真实案例和院前急救教学目标与内容,设计大型车祸救援情境模拟教学案例,包括不同等级伤情的伤员角色和救援人员角色,并搭建AR融合投影实训平台。选取71名护理学本科生开展教学实践,以教师现场点评、课后测试题、教学反馈与意见进行教学评价。结果教师现场点评操作体验组学生现场救援完成度较好,检伤正确率较高,但仍需加强团队协作能力,并且需要提升对沉默型伤员的关注度。学生课后测试题正确率为97%。学生反馈提炼“理论与实践结合”“身临其境参与急救过程”“能力的培养与实践”“情感的认知与升华”“技术融入教育的重要性”5个主题;学生提出“改进案例呈现方式,教师提前示范演示”“提前进行任务分工,增加学生参与机会”“拓展课程教学内容,锻炼学生思考能力”3个建议。结论基于AR的融合投影情境模拟教学能重现真实急救场景,激发学生学习兴趣;将理论与实践相结合,提高实践教学效果;学生身临其境参与急救,弥补传统教学不足。

多情景模拟下柯柯牙绿化工程区碳储量变化特征

本文以柯柯牙绿化工程区为研究对象,耦合MCCA-InVEST模型对多土地利用情景下碳储量特征状况进行分析。研究结果表明:①MCCA模型模拟精度较好,适宜未来土地模拟;②除2050年现状发展情景外,未来不同年度3种发展情景碳储量均表现为增加趋势,且生态优先情景增长幅度最大。本文对区域生态安全及“双碳”目标下土地利用效率的提升具有重要意义。

大型工程项目品质工程建设场景中的微创新研究

品质工程建设是工程经济高质量发展的重要内容。作为品质工程建设的抓手,微创新在大型工程项目建设场景中受到越来越多的关注。大广高速南康至龙南段扩容工程采用微创新在品质工程建设方面取得显著成效,以其为案例,通过访谈与调研获得一手数据,在场景驱动创新理论视角下探索大型工程项目品质工程建设场景中的微创新要素、内容和策略。结果发现:①大型工程项目品质工程建设场景要素包括战略、需求愿景、参与主体、市场、技术、资源和环境;②在场景驱动下,围绕品质目标的微创新活动内容包括设计理念微创新、工程技术、方法与信息化微创新以及管理制度微创新;③促进微创新的关键策略为沿着微创新活动作好顶层设计、班组管理与工程品质考核验收。研究结论有助于丰富大型工程项目品质工程建设场景驱动微创新理论研究,并为我国大型工程项目品质提升提供参考借鉴。

基于CCER规则的抽水蓄能碳减排计算方法

抽水蓄能在消纳新能源、实现调峰电源清洁替代等方面发挥着显著的节能减排绿色效益。首先,阐述了目前抽水蓄能参与碳配额交易市场和自愿减排量交易市场的现状,分析了抽水蓄能在减少弃风弃光和实现调峰电源清洁替代过程中发挥减排作用的机理。然后,根据国家核证自愿减排量(Chinese certified emission reduction,CCER)方法学体系,建立了抽水蓄能碳减排项目情景与计算模型,并计算了全国4个区域典型电站的实际碳减排量,其中华东、华中和东北区域的电站年减排量均在10万~30万t。最后,总结了区域内火电电量占比和电站综合效率是影响抽水蓄能减碳作用的关键因素。相关研究可为抽水蓄能CCER方法学开发与碳减排计量提供参考。

考虑CBAM的中国外贸钢铁碳减排前景分析——基于隐含碳强度预测

欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)正逐步实施,其高额碳关税无疑会加速中国出口钢铁行业碳减排进程,而与此同时,中国为实现“双碳”目标也出台了一系列减碳政策。为探究中国出口钢铁行业在复杂政策下的减排前景与关键因素,使用MRIO方法对隐含碳排放进行计算,构建了基于AO-ELM方法的隐含碳排放强度预测体系,模拟了不同政策情景下该行业的碳排放前景。研究发现,CBAM对该行业碳减排具有推动作用,但作用程度有限,提高中国国内政策的落实速度是更有效的途径;在同时考虑CBAM与国内政策如期落地的情景下,2034年该行业较基准情景可以降低8.35%的隐含碳排放。

新疆农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放变化趋势预测

基于2000-2020年新疆农作物产量、化肥投入、稻田播种面积等统计数据,根据IPCC排放因子法,核算新疆农业源非CO_(2)温室气体(GHG)排放总量,通过对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型对农业源非CO_(2)GHG排放驱动因素进行分解,使用蒙特卡洛模拟结合情景分析法预测其排放趋势。结果表明,研究期内新疆农业源非CO_(2)GHG排放呈现波动上升趋势,增幅达到34.43%,畜牧养殖是主要排放源。驱动因素研究结果表明,2000-2020年,农业经济发展水平和城镇化水平的提高促进了农业源非CO_(2)GHG的排放,贡献排放量分别达4211.74×10^(4)tCO_(2)eq和1016.08×10^(4)tCO_(2)eq。农业非CO_(2)GHG排放强度、乡村人口以及农业结构的降低抑制了农业源非CO_(2) GHG的排放,2000-2020年减排量分别为4163.36×10^(4)tCO_(2)eq、224.84×10^(4)tCO_(2)eq和130.64×10^(4)tCO_(2)eq。农业源非CO_(2)GHG排放在基准和规划情景下均呈上升趋势,但规划情景下的增速快于基准情景,在低碳情景下通过提高农业非CO_(2)GHG排放强度、改善生产结构有效减缓增速,可能在2035年实现负增长。实现农业源非CO_(2)GHG排放达峰需要强化对减排政策的落实,强制约束农业源非CO_(2)GHG排放;降低农业非CO_(2)GHG排放强度,控制因农业生产技术落后所导致的农业源非CO_(2)GHG排放;通过完善减排惩戒激励机制,鼓励技术突破引导新疆农业的低碳转型。

不确定条件下大型铁路建设工程的物资储备基地选址优化

为提升复杂环境下铁路建设工程物流设施网络的可靠性,首先,使用情景削减技术生成最小中断情景子集及其中断概率,以描述运输通道的中断情景;然后,采用多面体不确定集刻画物流需求的不确定性,以运输成本、建设成本、运营成本以及惩罚成本等综合成本最低为目标,应用两阶段的随机优化技术与鲁棒优化技术,构建物资储备基地选址不确定优化模型,并基于一种列与约束生成(C&CG)算法求解模型;最后,以复杂环境下的C铁路建设工程为例,验证模型和算法的有效性。结果表明:在随机中断情景中,模型获取方案的成本变异系数是传统模型的4.3%,在极端需求波动情况下,模型获取方案的成本波动幅度可达传统模型的38%,两阶段不确定优化模型能有效减少物流设施网络因运输通道中断及需求波动导致的成本变动。

基于动态贝叶斯网络的乏燃料后处理核应急情景分析

为提升乏燃料后处理核事故应急准备与响应能力,针对核事故应急演变路径的不确定性、情景分析在突发事件应急决策的重要性、演变过程的复杂性以及组织实施难等问题,构建基于知识元理论的乏燃料后处理核事故应急情景。选取事件、致灾体、承灾体和应急响应为组成要素,建立基于动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)方法的乏燃料后处理核应急动态情景推演分析模型,计算关键情景的发生概率、推演情景的发展趋势、分析演化规律与路径。以马雅克乏燃料后处理厂的高放废液贮槽爆炸为例,开展基于知识元和DBN的乏燃料后处理核事故应急情景分析方法的过程推演,并分析结果。结果表明:应急冷却供水丧失发生的概率为73%,高放废液贮槽爆炸发生的概率为86%,放射性核素通过多种途径转移到动植物产品和饮用水发生的概率为87%,部分地区有长寿命放射性核素沉积发生的概率为89%,事件平息与消亡发生的概率为72%;事故污染空气、土壤、河流的发生概率分别为89%、85%、81%,对公众健康和安全有影响的发生概率为86%。情景演化过程与后处理贮槽爆炸事故应急发展,以及对公众、环境的影响一致,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。

综合能源服务项目多场景优化运行模式评价

稳定充足的综合能源供应是综合能源服务项目关注的一个指标,本文在现有文献3种优化模式基础上,用运行成本、综合供能损失率、失能惩罚损失、新能源占比、新能源消纳率5个指标重构经济型优化运行模式、环保型优化运行模式和节能型优化运行模式的评价体系,得到3种优化运行模式下5个指标的最优值,运用AHP为5个指标设置主观权重,结合仿真结果对3种优化运行模式进行综合评价。主观权重评分中,综合供能损失率的权重最大,失能惩罚损失处于中间位置。3种优化运行模式的仿真结果都表明新能源占比还有提升空间。项目评价者可根据这5个指标,判别综合能源服务项目的运行模式。

基于时效因子和动态贝叶斯网络的配电室电力应急演练研究

针对由于灾害性事故频发,配电室应急工作面临严峻挑战的现状,文中对配电室电力灾害事故情景推演技术进行研究。在分析配电室电力灾害的突发性、多变性和演变路径的不明确性、复杂性基础上采用“情景-应对”分析法分析配电室电力事故的构成要素以及其作用关系,将处置措施约束时间引入情景构成要素,基于动态贝叶斯网络构建配电室电力灾害情景推演模型。基于时效性原则进行演练效果评价,通过某矿业公司一起6 kV配电室火灾事故进行实例分析,分析结果表明,推演结果与实际灾害发展情形相吻合,表明了配电室电力灾害事故情景推演模型的可行性。