Multimodel ensemble projection of photovoltaic power potential in China by the 2060s

为了实现能源转型的目标,中国对太阳能的需求一直在极速增长.然而,太阳能发电潜力受到天气条件的影响并预期在气候变暖背景下发生改变.本文中,作者利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)24个气候模式的气象变量以及4个不同形式的光伏模型,预估了在2060年代低排放或高排放情况下中国的光伏发电潜力.多模式集合平均光伏功率在2004-2014年为277.2KWhm-2yr-1,并呈现出从西到东的下降趋势.到2054-2064年,在低排放情景下,全国平均光伏发电潜力将增加2.29%,而在高排放情景下则减少0.43%.低排放情景的排放控制大大增强了地表太阳辐射,促进了东部的光伏发电.相反,在高排放情景下,强烈的变暖对光伏发电产生了抑制作用.极端暖事件使光伏发电潜力在低排放情景下降低0.28%,而高排放情景下降低0.44%,分别相当于当代损失量的两倍和三倍.预估表明排放控制带来的清洁空气和适度变暖对中国未来的太阳能利用是有益的.

A frequency servo SoC with output power stabilization loop technology for miniaturized atomic clocks

A frequency servo system-on-chip(FS-SoC)featuring output power stabilization technology is introduced in this study for high-precision and miniaturized cesium(Cs)atomic clocks.The proposed power stabilization loop(PSL)technique,incorporating an off-chip power detector(PD),ensures that the output power of the FS-SoC remains stable,mitigating the impact of power fluctuations on the atomic clock's stability.Additionally,a one-pulse-per-second(1PPS)is employed to syn-chronize the clock with GPS.Fabricated using 65 nm CMOS technology,the measured phase noise of the FS-SoC stands at-69.5 dBc/Hz@100 Hz offset and-83.9 dBc/Hz@1 kHz offset,accompanied by a power dissipation of 19.7 mW.The Cs atomic clock employing the proposed FS-SoC and PSL obtains an Allan deviation of 1.7×10^(-11) with 1-s averaging time.

Multi-Criteria Decision-Making for Power Grid Construction Project Investment Ranking Based on the Prospect Theory Improved by Rewarding Good and Punishing Bad Linear Transformation

Using the improved prospect theory with the linear transformations of rewarding good and punishing bad(RGPBIT),a new investment ranking model for power grid construction projects(PGCPs)is proposed.Given the uncertainty of each index value under the market environment,fuzzy numbers are used to describe qualitative indicators and interval numbers are used to describe quantitative ones.Taking into account decision-maker’s subjective risk attitudes,a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)method based on improved prospect theory is proposed.First,the[−1,1]RGPBIT operator is proposed to normalize the original data,to obtain the best andworst schemes of PGCPs.Furthermore,the correlation coefficients between interval/fuzzy numbers and the best/worst schemes are defined and introduced to the prospect theory to improve its value function and loss function,and the positive and negative prospect value matrices of the project are obtained.Then,the optimization model with the maximum comprehensive prospect value is constructed,the optimal attribute weight is determined,and the PGCPs are ranked accordingly.Taking four PGCPs of the IEEERTS-79 node system as examples,an illustration of the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is provided.

Upper Lillooet River Hydroelectric Project： The Challenges of Constructing a Power Tunnel for Run-of-River Hydro Projects in Mountainous British Columbia

The Upper Lillooet River Hydroelectric Project （ULHP） is a run-of-river power generation scheme located near Pemberton, British Columbia, Canada, consisting of two separate hydroelectric facilities （HEFs） with a combined capacity of 106.7 MW. These HEFs are owned by the Upper Lillooet River Power Limited Partnership and the Boulder Creek Power Limited Partnership, and civil and tunnel construction was completed by CRT-ebc. The Upper Lillooet River HEF includes the excavation ofa 6 m wide by 5.5 m high and approximately 2500 m long tunnel along the Upper Lillooet River Valley. The project is in a moun- tainous area; severe restrictions imposed by weather conditions and the presence of sensitive wildlife species constrained the site operations in order to limit environmental impacts. The site is adjacent to the Mount Meager Volcanic Complex, the most recently active volcano in Western Canada. Tunneling conditions were very challenging, including a section through deposits associated with the most recent eruption from Mount Meager Volcanic Complex （-2360 years before the present）. This tunnel section included welded breccia and unconsolidated deposits composed of loose pumice, organics （that represent an old forest floor）, and till, before entering the underlying tonalite bedrock. The construction of this section of the tunnel required cover grouting, umbrella support, and excavation with a combination of road header, hydraulic hammer, and drilling-and-blasting method. This paper provides an overview of the project, a summary of the key design and construction schedule challenges, and a description of the successful excavation of the tunnel through deposits associated with the recent volcanic activity.

基于KLPP-K-means-BiLSTM的台区短期电力负荷预测

随着智能电网的发展,各场景的用电更加多元化,而准确的台区负荷预测是确保相关电力部门制定合适检修任务的关键,同时为有序用电、电网经济运行提供重要参考。为了挖掘台区负荷的特征以提高台区负荷预测的精度,提出了一种基于核主元分析与局部保持投影降维、K均值聚类算法(K-means)以及双向长短时记忆网络(BiLSTM)的台区电力负荷预测方法。首先利用核局部保持投影(KLPP)对台区多特征负荷数据进行降维以提取主要特征信息;然后采取K-means聚类算法将相似特征的数据归类成各自的簇集;最后针对聚类后的各典型类型,有针对性地训练BiLSTM,并选取中国某高校低压台区负荷作为算例与其他经典预测方法进行对比分析,结果表明所提方法更拟合实际负荷走向,有效提升了预测效果。

基于三方讨价还价的PPP项目控制权双层分配博弈研究

PPP项目控制权分配是政府和社会资本合作模式中重要的激励机制,对公私合作模式顺利实施至关重要。通过构建控制权在政府部门与联合体之间初始分配、联合体内部再分配的双层动态博弈模型,以实现控制权在PPP项目参与者之间分配的双层优化,最终确定控制权在政府部门、纯投资者和专业公司之间最优的分配比例。研究结果表明:PPP项目参与各方的控制权分配比例与自身谈判能力呈正相关,与对方的谈判能力呈负相关;进而参与各方应充分展示自身优势,增强谈判能力。研究结果对我国公共基础设施PPP项目实践具有理论指导和决策支撑意义。

垃圾焚烧发电、废弃物处理PPP项目建筑给排水工程施工方法

本文首先阐述了给排水工程的重要性,其次结合实例工程详细介绍了施工方法,包括管道预留预埋、管道安装、设备调试等方面的技术要点。通过合理的施工安排和质量控制,确保给排水系统的稳定运行。最后,总结了该施工方法在实践中的应用效果和价值。

基于改性PP-R材料研制的500 kV聚丙烯绝缘电力电缆

基于对改性PP-R聚丙烯材料的研究,根据电缆运行环境,通过采用以聚丙烯树脂和增韧弹性体为主的超净PP绝缘材料、超光滑半导PP屏蔽料,设计研发了可应用在290/500 kV电力系统中的聚丙烯绝缘电力电缆。该电缆通过平滑铝金属套设计和双焊枪焊接技术,成功解决了传统皱纹铝护套由波谷点接触所引起的质量安全风险。相比相同运行环境中的传统交联聚乙烯绝缘皱纹铝护套电力电缆,其长期工作温度可提升到105℃;电缆正常运行时的载流量在直埋土壤中可提升18.6%,在空气中可提升20.3%。

Analysis on decision-making model of plan evaluation based on grey relation projection and combination weight algorithm

In military service joint operations, when there are more operational forces, more multifarious materials are consumed, the support is more complex and fuzzy, the deployment of personnel is more rapid, and the support provided by wartime military material support powers can be more effective. When the principles,requirements, influencing factors and goals of military material support forces are deployed in wartime, an evaluation indicator system is established. Thus, a new combined empowerment method based on an analytic hierarchy process（AHP） is developed to calculate the subjective weights, and the rough entropy method is used to calculate the objective weights. Combination weights can be obtained by calculating the weight preference coefficient error, which is determined by combining the cooperative game method and the minimum deviation into objectives. This approach can determine the grey relation projection coefficient and synthesize the measure scheme superiority to finally optimize the deployment plan using the grey relation projection decision-making method. The results show that the method is feasible and effective;it can provide a more scientific and practical decision-making basis for the military material support power deployment in wartime.

Differentiation degree combination weighting method for investment decision-making risk assessment in power grid construction projects

Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such projects and effectively prevent investment risks,this paper proposes an investment optimization decision-making method for multiple power grid construction projects under a certain investment scale.Firstly,an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and development requirements of China’s power grid projects was performed.Thereafter,the time sequence and holographic method was adopted to conduct multi-dimensional,multi-perspective risk assessment of different parts of power grid projects,and a holographic risk assessment index system was developed.Moreover,an investment decision model considering the comprehensive risk based on combination weighting was developed according to the output and input of power grid construction projects.A new combination weighting optimization method that takes into account the investment willingness of enterprises was designed to improve the current weighting evaluation methods.Finally,the validity and applicability of the proposed evaluation method were verified by case examples.

A GATEWAY TO INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKET——THE WHOLE CONRSE OF THE FIRST FOREIGN DEBT FINANCING FOR POWER PROJECTS IN CHINA

This paper introduces how Longyuan Power Group Company successfully carried out foreign debt financing for Jiangsu's power projects through its overseas financing window-Xiongya (Virgin) Co. Ltd. The entire process of raising funds is revealed with regard to employment of foreign debt financing, selection of funded projects, preparation of project and financing documents, credit rating, roadshow, line of credit, and financing experiences.

Project Construction and Important Technical Innovation for Qinshan Phase Ⅲ (PHWR) Nuclear Power Plant

Qinshan Phase Ⅲ(PHWR)Nuclear Power Plant,the first commercial heavy water reactor nuclear power plant in China,was the biggest trade project performed between the governments of China and Canada.As the owner,the Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Company(TQNPC)persisted in independent innovation management during the project construction,commissioning and self-dependent operation,efficiently realizing the three controls of the project,i.e.quality control,schedule control and investment control,and persisted in technical improvement on the basis of digestion and absorption of CANDU-6 technology to improve the unit safety and reliability.The project construction practice has helped China's nuclear power project management to becomeprogrammed,computerized,standardized and internationalized management from the existing basis.After completion of the project,with unit safe and steady operation as the prerequisite,TQNPC performed several technical modifications and innovations to continuously improve the unit performance.In the area of staff development,TQNPC paid much attention to cultivation of corporate culture,strengthed staff training and built up a good circulating mechanism with staff training and project construction promoting each other.Further to "Zero Breakthrough" and a new step forward of locolization successfully realized in Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant and Nuclear Power Qinshan Joint Venture Company,the improvement and developemnt of nuclear power project management level in Qinshan Phase Ⅲ(PHWR)Nuclear Power Plant provided reference for promotion of nuclear power development in China and standardized management of introducing large imported project.

Research Progress of On-line Monitoring Technology for Electromagnetic Environment of Power Transmission and Transformation Projects

Based on the collection of relevant literature and cases,the research and application status of on-line monitoring technology for electromagnetic environment of power transmission and transformation projects at home and abroad were introduced.Moreover,the problems existing in the on-line monitoring of electromagnetic environment were expounded,and the development prospect was forecasted.

CLUSTERING VIA DIMENSIONAL REDUCTION METHOD FOR THE PROJECTION PURSUIT BASED ON THE ICSA

The performance of the classical clustering algorithm is not always satisfied with the high-dimensional datasets, which make clustering method limited in many application. To solve this problem, clustering method with Projection Pursuit dimension reduction based on Immune Clonal Selection Algorithm (ICSA-PP) is proposed in this paper. Projection pursuit strategy can maintain consistent Euclidean distances between points in the low-dimensional embeddings where the ICSA is used to search optimizing projection direction. The proposed algorithm can converge quickly with less iteration to reduce dimension of some high-dimensional datasets, and in which space, K-mean clustering algorithm is used to partition the reduced data. The experiment results on UCI data show that the presented method can search quicker to optimize projection direction than Genetic Algorithm (GA) and it has better clustering results compared with traditional linear dimension reduction method for Principle Component Analysis (PCA).

500 kV Electric Power Transmission Projectof Yangcheng Power Plant

The 500 kV Electric Power TransmissionProject of Yangcheng Power Plant willtransmit electric power from the energy baseto the load center and optimize thedispositions of energy res0urce. It willaccelerate the development of coal resourcein Shanxi Province, relax the deficienttransport capacity, make up for the electricpower shortage of Jiangsu Province, promotethe economy development of the twoprovinces and accomplish the optimizationof energy resource disposition.The whole project consists of thetransmission lines, the Yellow RiverCrossing. and the Dongming and SanbaoSwitching stations. The general situation isdescribed briefly.

A multi-level evaluation model for the recognition and assessment of impact factors associated with intercontinental power interconnection projects

The construction of intercontinental power grid interconnection projects is key to realizing the vision of Global Energy Interconnection,which is to solve global energy problems in a clean and sustainable manner.These projects may be influenced by a few factors that are neither technological nor economic,such as political,social,and international factors.This paper thus presents a multi-level model for recognizing which factor from a compiled list of 14 would impact a particular intercontinental interconnection project and for assessing the degree of the factor’s influence.In the first part of the model,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method is used to recognize the project’s most significant impact factors.Using the recognition results,the second part of the model can assess the degree of the factor’s influence on the project based on ratings provided by experts.A comprehensive evaluation can thus be provided.As a case study,the proposed Saudi Arabia-Ethiopia power grid interconnection project connecting Asia and Africa was analyzed.Derived from a combination of multiple opinions from experts,evaluations from the model will be of direct benefit to decision-makers,investors,project implementers,and engineers,providing them with a deeper insight into the project.

Devising an Organized Procedure for Effective Risk Management in Independent Water and Power Plant Projects in Saudi Arabia

Worldwide countries are striving to meet demands for water and power, which have been estimated as likely to increase at a rate of 7% per annum over the coming decade. Water and power plant projects following the IWPP （independent water and power plant） approach have typically involved a plethora of risks. Since about 75% of the IWPP projects in SA （Sandi Arabia） have failed to meet specified objectives, effective RM （risk management） implementation is key to the success of any public and private project. Practitioners have related their experience about RM in IWPP projects in SA through semi-structured interviews, and analyzed these through the grounded theory approach to identify the elements leading to ineffectiveness when implementing RM in IWPP projects in SA. This study gathers and collates data to present findings in a propositional diagram that is fully grounded, based on practitioners＇ experiences that extend to the ineffectiveness of implementing RM in water and power projects, specifically in IWPP projects in SA. Findings indicate that IWPP parties have implemented RM in an informal way. In addition, there is a general lack of RM knowledge in the SA water and power industry. The paper concludes with an emergent diagram illustrating major phenomena, categories and subcategories affecting the implementation of RM in IWPP projects in SA.

The Role of Nuclear Regulators in Reviewing Population Growth Projections

One of the roles of nuctear regulators is to review population projections calculated by applicants for populations lying in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. This paper examines methods of calculating rates of growth and thus calculating future population growth. This paper is concerned about regulators making sure that nuclear power plants are not located near densely populated centers and that population centers located near nuclear power plants do not become densely populated. In the case of El Dabaa city in the north coast of Egypt, south west of the nominated plant site, three rates of growth 1.5%, 2.5% and 3% were identified. The first is the current population growth rate of the city, the second is the average national growth rate and the third is the expected growth rate of the city when the nuclear power plant gets constructed and operated. In all three cases, this city is a population center and rules of distance from the nuclear power plant shall apply. Thus the further natural growth of this city should be controlled and directed away from the downwind of the plant.

Problems of Environmental Acceptance Tests on Power Transmission and Transformation Projects

Based on the experience of environmental acceptance tests for power transmission projects, the problems found in acceptance tests and the system shortcomings of acceptance test itself are analyzed. Recommendations are provided to improve the future work.