Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Regional Marine Ecosystem Services Value

Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.

GIS SUPPORTED HEDONIC MODEL FOR ASSESSING PROPERTY VALUE IN WEST OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA

A hedonic linear regression model is constructed in this paper to estimate property value. In our model, the property value (sales price) is a function of several selected variables such as the property characteristics, social neighborhoods, level of neighborhood environmental contaminations, level of neighborhood crimes, and locational accessibility to jobs or services. Definitions and calculation of these variables are approached by using Geographic Information System tools. For improving estimation, gravity model is employed to measure both levels of neighborhood toxic sites and crimes; and a time-based method is used to measure the locational accessibility rather than simple straight-line distance measurement. This study discovers that the relationship between house value and its nearby highway is nonlinear. The methodology could help policy makers assess the external effects of a property. Our model also could be used potentially to identify the current and historic trends of development caused by neighborhood or environments change in the study area.

An Analysis of the Impact of Zoning Policies on Residential Property Values in Abuja

Zoning policies are measures used to enforce compliance and control the development of an area.These measures have been used in different countries to achieve a well-planned and habitable residential environment.Enforcement of these measures has tended to increase or decrease property values in some jurisdictions.Thus,the objective of this study was to measure the influence of zoning policies on rental values in Abuja,Nigeria.Due to the dearth of data related to the subject matter of this research,residents,property developers and personnel responsible for enforcement of these policies were targeted and used for data gathering.The hedonic price modeling(HPM)was used to assess the contribution of zoning policies to rental values in this analysis.The results,however,revealed that zoning is negatively correlated to rental values,while other zoning policies used in the study area are positively correlated to rental values.The result extends the debate that the impact of zoning could either be positively or negatively correlated to price relative to the underlying measures adopted within a jurisdiction.This result suggests that it is imperative to undertake a study in a jurisdiction before decisions could be made.Again,zoning policies should be extended to other suburbs of Abuja so that population pressure within Abuja and its immediate suburbs could be mitigated.

The effect of the magnitude uncertainty on the b value

Since the magnitude is usually not the same from one catalog to another for the same earthquake, the calculated b value will change with different catalogs. Big b error is usually introduced when the magnitudes of the events are not well measured. For this reason, based on the uncertainty of the observed magnitude, i.e., the "apparent" magnitude, the frequency-magnitude relation (Gutenberg-Richter relation) was estimated by assuming the normal distribution of the apparent magnitude around the "true" one. The number of the events with same "true" magnitude was recalculated according to this distribution. The error of the b value obtained with the "true" magnitude is largely reduced by taking into account the distribution of the "apparent" one. In order to show the advantage of the present method, the b values in the three zones in China are calculated with both ordinary and present method. Furthermore, in consideration of the magnitude saturation of the large events, the data set was divided into two pats on M=7.0. Results obtained by the method presented in this paper are of higher precision than those with ordinary method.

Optimal Portfolio Selection with Delay under the Framework of Uncertainty Theory

This study focuses on investigating the optimal investment strategy for an optimization problem with delay using the uncertainty theory. The financial market is composed of a risk-free asset and a risk asset with an uncertain price process described by an uncertain differential equation. An optimization problem is assumed that its objective is a nonlinear function of decision variable. By deriving the equation of optimality, an analytical solution is obtained for the optimal delay investment strategy, and the optimal delay value function. Finally, an economic analysis and numerical sensitivity analysis are conducted to evaluate the research results.

Third Order Adjoint Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of an OECD/NEA Reactor Physics Benchmark: III. Response Moments

The (180)3 third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cross sections have been computed in accompanying works [1] [2]. This work quantifies the contributions of these (180)3 third-order mixed sensitivities to the PERP benchmark’s leakage response distribution moments (expected value, variance and skewness) and compares these contributions to those stemming from the corresponding first- and second-order sensitivities of the PERP benchmark’s leakage response with respect to the total cross sections. The numerical results obtained in this work reveal that the importance of the 3rd-order sensitivities can surpass the importance of the 1st- and 2nd-order sensitivities when the parameters’ uncertainties increase. In particular, for a uniform standard deviation of 10% of the microscopic total cross sections, the 3rd-order sensitivities contribute 80% to the response variance, whereas the contribution stemming from the 1st- and 2nd-order sensitivities amount only to 2% and 18%, respectively. Consequently, neglecting the 3rd-order sensitivities could cause a very large non-conservative error by under-reporting the response variance by a factor of 506%. The results obtained in this work also indicate that the effects of the 3rd-order sensitivities are to reduce the response’s skewness in parameter space, rendering the distribution of the leakage response more symmetric about its expected value. The results obtained in this work are the first such results ever published in reactor physics. Since correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections are not available, only the effects of typical standard deviations for these cross sections could be considered. Due to this lack of correlations among the cross sections, the effects of the mixed 3rd-order sensitivities could not be quantified exactly at this time. These effects could be quantified only when correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections would be obtained experimentally by the nuclear physics community.

Thermodynamic properties of massless Dirac–Weyl fermions under the generalized uncertainty principle

The Dirac–Weyl equation characterized quasi-particles in the T3 lattice are studied under external magnetic field using the generalized uncertainty principle(GUP). The energy spectrum of the quasi-particles is found by the Nikiforov–Uvarov method. Based on the energy spectrum obtained, the thermodynamic properties are given, and the influence of the GUP on the statistical properties of systems is discussed. The results show that the energy and thermodynamic functions of massless Dirac–Weyl fermions in the T3 lattice depend on the variation of the GUP parameter.

Influence of seismicity parameter uncertainty on seismic hazard estimation of cities and towns

The influence on seismic hazard estimation for 310 cities and towns in the whole nation are studied in particular,owing to uncertainty of seismicity parameters caused by non-uniqueness in selecting statistical time ranges. Andthe regional sketch maps of the average varying values of intensity and the average relative varying values of peakacceleration with different probability of exceedance in 50 years are drawn in the Chinese mainland.

Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

The accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters depends on the probability distribution model,and the calculation results of different distribution models are often different.It is very important to determine which distribution model is more stable and reasonable when extrapolating the recurrence level of the studied sea area.In this paper,we constructed an evaluation method of the overall uncertainty of the calculation results and a measurement of the uncertainty of the design parameters derivation model,by incorporating the influence of sample information on the model information entropy,such as sample size,degree of dispersion,and sampling error.Results show that the sample data size and the degree of dispersion are directly proportional to the information entropy.Within the same group of data,the maximum entropy distribution model has the lowest overall uncertainty,while the Gumbel distribution model has the largest overall uncertainty.In other words,the maximum entropy distribution model has good applicability in the accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters.

Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty

In open-pit mines,pit slope as one of the important parameters affects the mine economy and total minable reserve,and it is also affected by different uncertainties which arising from many sources.One of the most critical sources of uncertainty effects on the pit slope design is rock mass geomechanical properties.By comparing the probability of failure resulted from deterministic procedure and probabilistic one,this paper investigated the effects of aforesaid uncertainties on open-pit slope stability in metal mines.In this way,to reduce the effect of variance,it implemented Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS)technique.Furthermore,a hypothesis test was exerted to compare the effects on two cases in Middle East.Subsequently,the investigation approved high influence of geomechanical uncertainties on overall pit steepness and stability in both iron and copper mines,though on the first case the effects were just over.

Repetitive Control Uncertainty Conditions in State Feedback Solution

Repetitive Control (RC) designed with state feedback that includes past error feedforward and current error feedback schemes for linear time-invariant systems is reintroduced. Periodic disturbances are common within repetitive systems and can be represented with a time-delay model. The proposed design focuses on isolating the disturbance model and finding the overall transfer function around the delay model. The use of the small gain theorem around the delay model assures disturbance accommodation if stability conditions are achieved. This paper reintroduces the designed RC controller within the state feedback in the presence of both past error and current error structures. Robustness conditions are investigated and set to enhance system performance in the presence of modelling mismatch, which represents the novel contribution in this paper. Simulations demonstrate the advantages of the robust conditions obtained while improving system performance for dynamic perturbations.

Identifying uncertainty sources in measurements-A methodology

The overall purpose of performing measurements in science is to increase knowledge and document about some physical quantity.The measurand has a true value but,except for straightforward counting situations,the true value can never be fully determined.When a quantity is measured,the outcome depends on the measuring system,the measurement procedure,the skill of the operator,the environment and other effects.In practice the uncertainty on the result may arise from many possible sources,including examples such as incomplete definition,sampling,matrix effects and interferences,environmental conditions,uncertainties of weights and volumetric equipment,reference values,approximations and assumptions incorporated in the measurement method and procedure,and random variation.The objective of the paper is how to identify the sources of uncertainty in measurement and their importance on the result.

Valuing options to renew at future market value:the case of commercial property leases

In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.

Landscape Aesthetic Characteristics of Wulingyuan World Natural Heritage Property and Realization Path of Aesthetic Education Value

Wulingyuan is a world natural heritage property mainly dominated by rare quartz sandstone peak forest landscape at home and abroad and supplemented by karst landscapes,with a large number of geological and historical sites,biological and ecological landscape and unique cultural landscapes.Preserving the secluded and beautiful scenery environment,biological environment and ecosystem of subtropical zone,Wulingyuan presents a splendid and magnificent landscape,with high aesthetic value,and becomes an important practice base of aesthetic education.The aesthetic education value of Wulingyuan World Natural Heritage Property can be realized by systematically studying and presenting the aesthetic education value of Wulingyuan World Natural Heritage Property,developing a series of aesthetic education courses to lead tourists into the world of Wulingyuan aesthetic education,carrying out a series of popular science activities of“Wulingyuan World Natural Heritage Property Entering Campus”,and incorporating into the aesthetic education curriculum system of schools,etc.This paper analyzes the landscape aesthetic characteristics of Wulingyuan World Natural Heritage Property thoroughly,which indicates the direction for realizing the aesthetic education value of the property,and also provides a reference for realizing the aesthetic education value of similar world natural heritage property.

The Asymptotic Property of Generalized Taylor Remainder "Mean Value Point"

This paper discussed asymptotic property of Taylor remainder 'mean value point' in normed Linear space. The asymptotic progerty of 'mean value point' is solved when f^(n+i)(x0)h^(n+i)=0(i=1,2,……,p-1) and f^(n+p)(x0)h^(h+p) don't exist. Meanwhile, achicve more general asymptotic estimation formula. Make many former results are just because of special case of the pager.

Yardstick of intellectual property value:Shanghai Bili on the rise

"Roads are not natural to the world.Only if a track is trodden uncountable times,it becomes a road."In 2014,Tao Ye founded Shanghai Bili Patent Evaluation Technology Co.,Ltd,which specializes in the value assessment of intellectual property such as patents,technical secrets,designs,trademarks,and software copyrights.Its products cover intellectual property investment,pledge financing,transfer and license fee pricing,intellectual property asset accounting,intellectual property value appraisal involved in litigation,intellectual property infringement compensation calculation,massive patent value ranking and optimization,patent value list customization,patent value analysis software customization,patent financial product customization,etc.Over the past few years,Tao Ye has led the excellent Bili team to explore the intellectual property value evaluation,which is a niche business field of intellectual property and has achieved excellent results.Since its establishment,Bili has developed unique technical standards while pricing knowledge assets,which complement each other.

文化与经济双重情境作用下管理者声誉对长期主义的影响研究

运用机器学习与文本分析方法构建管理者长期主义变量,以中国A股上市公司为样本,基于跨期选择理论,探究管理者声誉对长期主义的塑造作用以及儒家文化与经济政策不确定性的调节效应。研究表明:管理者声誉与其长期主义导向显著正相关;在受儒家文化影响更加深远以及外部经济政策不确定性更强的企业中,管理者声誉对于长期主义的影响更为显著;管理者声誉能够通过塑造长期主义者,优化企业在减少违规行为、提升内控质量、提高信息透明度、促进社会责任承担等价值分配方面,以及促进技术创新、绿色创新、数字化转型、高质量发展等价值创造方面的表现。

直写成型用碳化硅浆料及其流变性能研究

碳化硅(SiC)凭借高强度、轻质性以及耐高温性能等优势已成为时下应用最广泛的陶瓷材料之一。传统的制备方法生产周期长、成本高且难以制造相对复杂结构的陶瓷。本文利用直写成型方法制备三维复杂结构的SiC陶瓷,研究分散剂含量、pH值、固相体积分数和增稠剂等因素对SiC浆料流变性能的影响,制备可打印的SiC浆料并直写成型,获得SiC的三维点阵结构。结果表明:调节分散剂含量能使浆料黏度获得最低值;pH值影响分散剂的解离度进而改变浆料的黏度;固相体积分数越高,打印结构完整性越好;添加甲基纤维素(MC)可增加浆料的黏度和剪切弹性模量,使其可打印。优化的SiC浆料配方为:分散剂聚丙烯酸(PAA)质量分数为0.01%,固相体积分数为63%和MC质量分数为0.04%,pH>10。

经济政策不确定性对亚太价值链重构的影响

基于亚洲开发银行多区域投入产出(ADB-MRIO)数据库,本文构建了2008~2020年的亚太价值链重构指标,考察经济政策不确定性对亚太价值链重构的影响效应及其作用机制,并进一步探究了互联网发展影响经济政策不确定性对亚太价值链重构的作用效果。结果表明:经济政策不确定性上升总体上推动了价值链参与度由全球向亚太区域重构,该影响通过外商直接投资的渠道起作用,且上述影响在制造业中尤其显著。互联网发展强化了经济政策不确定性对亚太价值链重构的促进效果。鉴于此,中国应稳定经济政策更新频率,加大产业体系安全保护,加强互联网建设,深化亚太区域经贸合作。

经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有价值——有调节的中介效应

随着宏观环境波动,企业受经济政策不确定性影响较大,其对现金持有价值的影响以及渠道机制值得关注。基于沪深A股2013—2021年上市公司面板经验证据,对经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有价值的关系进行探讨,分析发现:经济政策不确定性对企业现金持有价值具有积极效应,经济政策不确定性通过加剧融资约束程度进而提高企业现金持有价值,在投资者保护度较低、非国有企业以及企业成长性较高时该正向促进作用更强,客户集中度在“经济政策不确定性—融资约束—企业现金持有价值”的整个路径和前半路径具有显著调节作用。由此,提出政府应考虑企业的风险承受能力、引导企业建立风险应对机制、促进资本市场改革、完善资金信用机制等政策建议。