More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index...More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought （F/D） index obtained from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region （BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan＇anlu in the Yuan Dynasty） was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208-1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters, the whole period could be divided into three phases. （1） 1208-1240： drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters. （2） 1240-1320： long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. （3） 1320-1369： drought disasters were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed obvious transition and periodicity in the MongoI-Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic change, might have profound impacts on local vegetation and socio-economic system.展开更多
By processing and analyzing geodetic data of vertical deformation, fault deformation and horizontal deformation by GPS in Gansu Ningxia Qinghai area and by comparing them with geological structures and many medium to ...By processing and analyzing geodetic data of vertical deformation, fault deformation and horizontal deformation by GPS in Gansu Ningxia Qinghai area and by comparing them with geological structures and many medium to strong earthquake activities in this area, some features of recent tectonic deformation anomaly and the development of medium to strong earthquakes are studied. The results show that: ①Near the main faults tectonic deformations are relatively large. The amount of vertical movement and the deformation status evolve with time. The horizontal movement and deformation show obvious compressional strike slip character. ②The dominant stress of tectonic deformation and seismic development in this area comes from the persistent northeastward compression of Qinghai Tibet block;The time spatial distribution evolution of tectonic deformation and seismic activities are closely related to dynamic evolution of block motion and regional tectonic stress field. ③The abnormal uplift and high gradient deformation belts and remarkable fault deformation anormaly on the borders of regional tectonic blocks are indicators of developing moderate to strong earthquakes but earthquakes may not necessarily take place in the position of maxium deformation, it usually occurred in the region where fault deformation anormaly shows “trend accumulation acceleration turn ” variation character or nearby. On the basis of above study, a preliminary prediction for strong earthquake risk in this area is given.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40471047 No.40871033The Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-YW-315
文摘More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought （F/D） index obtained from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region （BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan＇anlu in the Yuan Dynasty） was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208-1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters, the whole period could be divided into three phases. （1） 1208-1240： drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters. （2） 1240-1320： long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. （3） 1320-1369： drought disasters were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed obvious transition and periodicity in the MongoI-Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic change, might have profound impacts on local vegetation and socio-economic system.
文摘By processing and analyzing geodetic data of vertical deformation, fault deformation and horizontal deformation by GPS in Gansu Ningxia Qinghai area and by comparing them with geological structures and many medium to strong earthquake activities in this area, some features of recent tectonic deformation anomaly and the development of medium to strong earthquakes are studied. The results show that: ①Near the main faults tectonic deformations are relatively large. The amount of vertical movement and the deformation status evolve with time. The horizontal movement and deformation show obvious compressional strike slip character. ②The dominant stress of tectonic deformation and seismic development in this area comes from the persistent northeastward compression of Qinghai Tibet block;The time spatial distribution evolution of tectonic deformation and seismic activities are closely related to dynamic evolution of block motion and regional tectonic stress field. ③The abnormal uplift and high gradient deformation belts and remarkable fault deformation anormaly on the borders of regional tectonic blocks are indicators of developing moderate to strong earthquakes but earthquakes may not necessarily take place in the position of maxium deformation, it usually occurred in the region where fault deformation anormaly shows “trend accumulation acceleration turn ” variation character or nearby. On the basis of above study, a preliminary prediction for strong earthquake risk in this area is given.
