Computational Experiments for Complex Social Systems:Experiment Design and Generative Explanation

Powered by advanced information technology,more and more complex systems are exhibiting characteristics of the cyber-physical-social systems(CPSS).In this context,computational experiments method has emerged as a novel approach for the design,analysis,management,control,and integration of CPSS,which can realize the causal analysis of complex systems by means of“algorithmization”of“counterfactuals”.However,because CPSS involve human and social factors(e.g.,autonomy,initiative,and sociality),it is difficult for traditional design of experiment(DOE)methods to achieve the generative explanation of system emergence.To address this challenge,this paper proposes an integrated approach to the design of computational experiments,incorporating three key modules:1)Descriptive module:Determining the influencing factors and response variables of the system by means of the modeling of an artificial society;2)Interpretative module:Selecting factorial experimental design solution to identify the relationship between influencing factors and macro phenomena;3)Predictive module:Building a meta-model that is equivalent to artificial society to explore its operating laws.Finally,a case study of crowd-sourcing platforms is presented to illustrate the application process and effectiveness of the proposed approach,which can reveal the social impact of algorithmic behavior on“rider race”.

Blast wave characteristics of multi-layer composite charge:Theoretical analysis,numerical simulation,and experimental validation

This article investigates the characteristics of shock wave overpressure generated by multi-layer composite charge under different detonation modes.Combining dimensional analysis and the explosion mechanism of the charge,a peak overpressure prediction model for the composite charge under singlepoint detonation and simultaneous detonation was established.The effects of the charge structure and initiation method on the overpressure field characteristics were investigated in AUTODYN simulation.The accuracy of the prediction model and the reliability of the numerical simulation method were subsequently verified in a series of static explosion experiments.The results reveal that the mass of the inner charge was the key factor determining the peak overpressure of the composite charge under single-point detonation.The peak overpressure in the radial direction improved apparently with an increase in the aspect ratio of the charge.The overpressure curves in the axial direction exhibited a multi-peak phenomenon,and the secondary peak overpressure even exceeded the primary peak at distances of 30D and 40D(where D is the charge diameter).The difference in peak overpressure among azimuth angles of 0-90°gradually decreased with an increase in the propagation distance of the shock wave.The coupled effect of the detonation energy of the inner and outer charge under simultaneous detonation improved the overpressure in both radial and axial directions.The difference in peak overpressure obtained from model prediction and experimental measurements was less than 16.4%.

A Land Surface Model(IAP94) for Climate Studies PartI:Formulation and Validation in Off-line Experiments

The IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) land-surface model (IAP94) is described. This model is a comprehensive one with detailed description for the processes of vegetation, snow and soil. Particular attention has been paid to the cases with three water phases in the surface media. On the basis of the mixture theory and the theory of fluid dynamics of porous media, the system of universal conservational equations for water and heat of soil, snow and vegetation canopy has been constructed. On this background, all important factors that may affect the water and heat balance in media can be considered naturally, and each factor and term possess distinct physical meaning. In the computation of water content and temperature, the water phase change and the heat transportation by water flow are taken into account. Moreover, particular attention has been given to the water vapor diffusion in soil for arid or semi-arid cases, and snow compaction. In the treatment of surface turbulent fluxes, the difference between aerodynamic and thermal roughness is taken into account. The aerodynamic roughness of vegetation is calculated as a function of canopy density, height and zero-plane displacement. An extrapolation of log linear and exponential relationship is used when calculating the wind profile within canopy. The model has been validated against field measurements in off-line simulations. The desirable model′s performance leads to the conclusion that the IAP94 is able to reproduce the main physical mechanisms governing the energy and water balances in the global land surface. Part II of the present study will concern the validation in a 3-D experiment coupled with the IAP Two-Level AGCM.

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center （NCC）, China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year （2001 to 2004） prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process paraxneterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme （MFS） and Betts-Miller scheme （BM） for convective precipitation, the LPMI （land surface process model I） and LPMII （land surface process model Ⅱ） for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE （turbulent kinetic energy） scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 （RegCM_NCC） has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.

Numerical and Experimental Study on Ventilation Panel Models in a Subway Passenger Compartment

The internal flow field study of car compartments is an important step in railroad vehicle design and optimization. The flow field profile has a significant impact on the temperature distribution and passenger comfort level. Experimental studies on flow field can yield accurate results but carry a high time and computational cost. In contrast, the numerical simulation method can yield an internal flow field profile in less time than an experimental study. This study aims to improve the computational efficiency of numerical simulation by adapting two simplified models—the porous media model and the porous jump face model—to study the internal flow field of a railroad car compartment. The results provided by both simplified models are compared with the original numerical simulation model and with experimental data. Based on the results, the porous media model has a better agreement with the original model and with the experimental results. The flow field parameters (temperature and velocity) of the porous media model have relatively small numerical errors, with a maximum numerical error of 4.7%. The difference between the numerical results of the original model and those of the porous media model is less than 1%. By replacing the original numerical simulation model with the porous media model, the flow field of subway car compartments can be calculated with a reduction of about 25% in computing resources, while maintaining good accuracy.

The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments PartII: The Operational Forecasting Experiments

おhe water-bearing numerical model is undergone all round examinations during the operational forecasting experiments from 1994 to 1996. A lot of difficult problems arising from the model′s water-bearing are successfully resolved in these experiments through developing and using a series of technical measures. The operational forecasting running of the water-bearing numerical model is realized stably and reliably, and satisfactory forecasts are obtained.

Structure and kinematic analysis of the deepwater area of the Qiongdongnan Basin through a seismic interpretation and analogue modeling experiments

Located at the northwest continental slope of the South China Sea, the Qiongdongnan Basin bears valley-shaped bathymetry deepening toward east. It is separated from the Yinggehai Basin through NW-trending Indo-China-Red River shear zone, and connected with NW subsea basin through the Xisha Trough. Along with the rapid progress of the deepwater exploration, large amounts of high resolution geophysical and geological data were accumulated. Scientific researches about deepwater basins kept revealing brand new tectonic and sedimentary discoveries. In order to summarize the structural features and main controlling factors of the deepwater Qiongdongnan Basin, a series of researches on basin architecture, fault activities, tectonic deformation and evolution were carried out. In reference to analogue modeling experiments, a tectonic situation and a basin formation mechanism were discussed. The researches indicate that：the northern boundary of the Qiongdongnan Basin is strongly controlled by No. 2 fault. The overlapping control of two stress fields from the east and the west made the central depression zone extremely thinned. Combined with the changed stress field, the segmentation of a preexisting weakness zone made the sags in the east experiencing different rifting histories from the west ones. The NE-trending west segment of the Qiongdongnan Basin experienced strong rifting during Eocene, while the roughly EW-trending sags in the east segment show strong rifting during late Eocene and early Oligocene. Local structures such as NW-trending basal fault and inherited uplifts controlled the lateral segmentation. So first order factors such as regional stress field and preexisting weakness zone controlled the basin zonation, while the second order factors determined the segmentation from east to west.

Mathematical Model and Experiment Validation of Fluid Torque by Shear Stress under Influence of Fluid Temperature in Hydro-viscous Clutch

The current design of hydro-viscous clutch（HVC） in tracked vehicle fan transmission mainly focuses on high-speed and high power. However, the fluid torque under the influence of fluid temperature can not be predicted accurately by conventional mathematical model or experimental research. In order to validate the fluid torque of HVC by taking the viscosity-temperature characteristic of fluid into account, the test rig is designed. The outlet oil temperature is measured and fitted with different rotation speed, oil film thickness, oil flow rate, and inlet oil temperature. Meanwhile, the film torque can be obtained. Based on Navier-Stokes equations and the continuity equation, the mathematical model of fluid torque is proposed in cylindrical coordinate. Iterative method is employed to solve the equations. The radial and tangential speed distribution, radial pressure distribution and theoretical flow rate are determined and analyzed. The models of equivalent radius and fluid torque of friction pairs are introduced. The experimental and theoretical results indicate that tangential speed distribution is mainly determined by the relative rotating speed between the friction plate and the separator disc. However, the radial speed distribution and pressure distribution are dominated by pressure difference at the lower rotating speed. The oil film fills the clearance and the film torque increases with increasing rotating speed. However, when the speed reaches a certain value, the centrifugal force will play an important role on the fluid distribution. The pressure is negative at the outer radius when inlet flow rate is less than theoretical flow, so the film starts to shrink which decreases the film torque sharply. The theoretical fluid torque has good agreement with the experimental data. This research proposes a new fluid torque mathematical model which may predict the film torque under the influence of temperature more accurately.

Spatiotemporal evolution rule of rocks fracture surrounding gob-side roadway with model experiments

A series of plane-strain physical model experiments are carried out to study the spatiotemporal evolution rule of rocks fracture surrounding gob-side roadway, which is subjected to the pressure induced by the mining process. The digital photogrammetry technology and large deformation analysis method are applied to measure the deformation and fracture of surrounding rocks. The experimental results indicate that the deformation and fracture of coal pillars are the cause to the instability and failure of the surrounding rocks. The spatiotemporal evolution rule of the rock deformation and fracture surrounding gob-side roadway is obtained. The coal pillar and the roof near coal pillar should be strengthened in support design. The engineering application results also can provide a useful guide that the combined support with wire meshes, beam, anchor bolt and cable is an effective method.

The Selection and Breeding of a Novel Microorganism Strain I and Investigation of Core Model Experiment for MEOR

This paper introduces the results of selecting and breeding a micro-organism, Strain I, and its core model experiment investigation for microbial enhanced oil recovery (MEOR). Strain I was separated from the formation water of the Dagang oil field, with analytical results showing that Strain I is a gram-positive bacillus. A further study revealed that this strain has an excellent tolerance of environmental stresses: It can survive in conditions of 70℃, 30 wt% salinity and pH3.5-9.4. Strain I can metabolize biosurfactants that could increase the oil recovery ratio, use crude oil as the single carbon source, and decompose long-chain paraffin with a large molecular weight into short-chain paraffin with a small molecular weight. The core model experiment shows that Strain I enhances oil recovery well. Using 2 vol% of the fermentation solution of Strain I to displace the crude oil in the synthetic plastic bonding core could increase the recovery ratio by 21.6%.

Mechanical model of water inrush from coal seam floor based on triaxial seepage experiments

In order to study the mechanism of confined water inrush from coal seam floor,the main influences on permeability in the process of triaxial seepage experiments were analyzed with methods such as laboratory experiments,theoretical analysis and mechanical model calculation.The crack extension rule and the ultimate destruction form of the rock specimens were obtained.The mechanism of water inrush was explained reasonably from mechanical point of view.The practical criterion of water inrush was put forward.The results show that the rock permeability "mutation" phenomenon reflects the differences of stress state and cracks extension rate when the rock internal crack begins to extend in large-scale.The rock ultimate destruction form is related to the rock lithology and the angle between crack and principal stress.The necessary condition of floor water inrush is that the mining pressure leads to the extension and transfixion of the crack.The sufficient condition of floor water inrush is that the confined water’s expansionary stress in normal direction and shear stress in tangential direction must be larger than the internal stress in the crack.With the two conditions satisfied at the same time,the floor water inrush accident will occur.

Energy Model for UAV Communications:Experimental Validation and Model Generalization

Wireless communication involving unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)is expected to play an important role in future wireless networks.However,different from conventional terrestrial communication systems,UAVs typically have rather limited onboard energy on one hand,and require additional flying energy consumption on the other hand.This renders energy-efficient UAV communication with smart energy expenditure of paramount importance.In this paper,via extensive flight experiments,we aim to firstly validate the recently derived theoretical energy model for rotary-wing UAVs,and then develop a general model for those complicated flight scenarios where rigorous theoretical model derivation is quite challenging,if not impossible.Specifically,we first investigate how UAV power consumption varies with its flying speed for the simplest straight-and-level flight.With about 12,000 valid power-speed data points collected,we first apply the model-based curve fitting to obtain the modelling parameters based on the theoretical closed-form energy model in the existing literature.In addition,in order to exclude the potential bias caused by the theoretical energy model,the obtained measurement data is also trained using a model-free deep neural network.It is found that the obtained curve from both methods can match quite well with the theoretical energy model.Next,we further extend the study to arbitrary 2-dimensional(2-D)flight,where,to our best knowledge,no rigorous theoretical derivation is available for the closed-form energy model as a function of its flying speed,direction,and acceleration.To fill the gap,we first propose a heuristic energy model for these more complicated cases,and then provide experimental validation based on the measurement results for circular level flight.

A continuous and high-efficiency process to separate coal bed methane with porous ZIF-8 slurry:Experimental study and mathematical modelling

Coal bed methane has been considered as an important energy resource.One major difficulty of purifying coal bed methane comes from the similar physical properties of CH_4 and N_2.The ZIF-8/water-glycol slurry was used as a medium to separate coal bed methane by fluidifying the solid adsorbent material.The sorption equilibrium experiment of binary mixture(CH_4/N_2)and slurry was conducted.The selectivity of CH_4 to N_2 is within the range of 2-6,which proved the feasibility of the slurry separation method.The modified Langmuir equation was used to describe the gas-slurry phase equilibrium behavior,and the calculated results were in good agreement with the experimental data.A continuous absorption-adsorption and desorption process on the separation of CH_4/N_2 in slurry is proposed and its mathematical model is also developed.Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the operation conditions and the energy performance of the proposed process was also evaluated.Feed gas contains 30 mol%of methane and the methane concentration in product gas is 95.46 mol%with the methane recovery ratio of 90.74%.The total energy consumption for per unit volume of product gas is determined as 1.846 kWh Nm^(-3).Experimental results and process simulation provide basic data for the design and operation of pilot and industrial plant.

Review on cyclic plasticity of magnesium alloys:Experiments and constitutive models

Fatigue analysis has always been a concern in the design and assessment of Mg alloy structure components subjected to cyclic loading,and research on the cyclic plasticity is fundamental to investigate the corresponding fatigue failure.Thus,this work reviews the progress in the cyclic plasticity of Mg alloys.First,the existing macroscopic and microscopic experimental results of Mg alloys are summarized.Then,corresponding macroscopic phenomenological constitutive models and crystal plasticity-based models are reviewed.Finally,some conclusions and recommended topics on the cyclic plasticity of Mg alloys are provided to boost the further development and application of Mg alloys.

Effect of Methane Gas on Acoustic Characteristics of Hydrate-Bearing Sediment–Model Analysis and Experimental Verification

Gas leakage is an important consideration in natural systems that experience gas hydrate accumulation.A number of velocity models have been created to study hydrate-bearing sediments,including the BGTL theory,the weighted equation,the Wood equation,the K-T equation,and the effective medium theory.In previous work,we regarded water as the pore fluid,which meant its density and bulk modulus values were those of water.This approach ignores the presence of gas,which results in a biased calculation of the pore fluid's bulk modulus and density.To take into account the effect of gas on the elastic wave velocity,it is necessary to recalculate the bulk modulus and density of an equivalent medium.Thus,a high-pressure reactor device for simulating leakage systems was developed to establish the relationship between wave velocity and hydrate saturation in methane-flux mode.A comparison of the values calculated by the velocity model with the experimental data obtained in this study indicates that the effective medium theory(EMT,which considers gas effects)is more applicable than other models.For hydrate saturations of 10%–30%,the result ranges between EMT-B(homogenous gas distribution)and EMT-B(patchy gas distribution).For hydrate saturations of 30%–60%,the results are similar to those of the EMT-B(homogenous gas distribution)mode,whereas hydrate saturations of 60%–70%yield results similar to those of the EMT-A mode.For hydrate saturations greater than 80%,the experimental results are similar to those of the EMT-B mode.These results have significance for hydrate exploitation in the South China Sea.

Evaluation of a Micro-scale Wind Model's Performance over Realistic Building Clusters Using Wind Tunnel Experiments

The simulation performance over complex building clusters of a wind simulation model（Wind Information Field Fast Analysis model, WIFFA） in a micro-scale air pollutant dispersion model system（Urban Microscale Air Pollution dispersion Simulation model, UMAPS） is evaluated using various wind tunnel experimental data including the CEDVAL（Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Micro-Scale Dispersion Models） wind tunnel experiment data and the NJU-FZ experiment data（Nanjing University-Fang Zhuang neighborhood wind tunnel experiment data）. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings well, and the flow patterns in urban street canyons and building clusters can also be represented. Due to the complex shapes of buildings and their distributions, the simulation deviations/discrepancies from the measurements are usually caused by the simplification of the building shapes and the determination of the key zone sizes. The computational efficiencies of different cases are also discussed in this paper. The model has a high computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical models that solve the Navier–Stokes equations, and can produce very high-resolution（1–5 m） wind fields of a complex neighborhood scale urban building canopy（～ 1 km ×1km） in less than 3 min when run on a personal computer.

Mathematical Modelling and Experimental Investigation of a Low Temperature Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell

This paper presents dynamic modeling of 1000 W EC6C Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) manufactured by Edibon. Experiments were carried out to investigate the performance of the system and a dynamic electrical model was implemented in Matlab/Simulink. The simulation model was able to predict efficiency, power and fuel cell potential. The model was also tested with load variations to find out the real time responses. The results were validated by experimental findings. The comparison showed that the model was effective and could be used in optimization of the fuel cell system operated at low temperatures under 80 degrees.

Analysis of sp Pillar Stability Experiment: Continuous thermo-mechanical model development and calibration

The paper describes an analysis of thermo-mechanical （TM） processes appearing during the Aspo Pillar Stability Experiment （APSE）. This analysis is based on finite elements with elasticity, plasticity and dam- age mechanics models of rock behaviour and some least squares calibration techniques. The main aim is to examine the capability of continuous mechanics models to predict brittle damage behaviour of gran- ite rocks. The performed simulations use an in-house finite element software GEM and self-developed experimental continuum damage MATLAB code. The main contributions are twofold. First, it is an inverse analysis, which is used for （1） verification of an initial stress measurement by back analysis of conver- gence measurement during construction of the access tunnel and （2） identification of heat transfer rock mass properties by an inverse method based on the known heat sources and temperature measurements. Second, three different hierarchically built models are used to estimate the pillar damage zones, i.e. elas- tic model with Drucker-Prager strength criterion, elasto-plastic model with the same yield limit and a combination of elasto-plasticity with continuum damage mechanics. The damage mechanics model is also used to simulate uniaxial and triaxial compressive strength tests on the ,Aspo granite.

The Effect of Urban Agglomeration Expansion on PM_(2.5) Concentrations: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment

This study constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the expansion of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration(YRDUA) of China in 2010 to investigate the impact and inner mechanism of urban agglomeration expansion on fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)) concentrations through propensity scores in difference-in-differences models(PSM-DID) using panel data from 286 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2003 to 2016. The results show that 1) urban agglomeration expansion contributes to an overall decrease in PM_(2.5)concentration, which is mainly achieved from the original cities. For the new cities, on the other hand, the expansion significantly increases the local PM_(2.5)concentration. 2) In the long term, the significant influence of urban agglomeration expansion on PM_(2.5)concentration lasts for three years and gradually decreases. A series of robustness tests confirm the applicability of the PSM-DID model.3) Cities with weaker government regulation, a better educated population and higher per capita income present stronger PM_(2.5)reduction effects. 4) Urban agglomeration expansion affects the PM_(2.5)concentration mainly through industrial transfer and population migration, which cause a decrease in the PM_(2.5)concentration in the original cities and an increase in the PM_(2.5)concentration in the new cities.Corresponding policy suggestions are proposed based on the conclusions.

Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center

The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China.