The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the four...The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.展开更多
Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparativ...Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparative analysis of the influences of different types of monetary policy instruments towards different regional housing prices. The empirical results show that both the quantitative instruments represented by M2 and the pricing instruments represented by real interest rate have increasing influences on different regional housing prices,but the former influence is much stronger than the latter. The influential differences of quantitative instruments to regional housing prices are much greater. It means the higher the regional housing price is, the greater the influence is. Therefore, the central bank shall optimize the combination of monetary policy instruments according to the above characteristics of different types of monetary policy instruments in order to acquire the regulatory target of real estate market.展开更多
文摘The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.
基金the Humanity and Social Science on Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(No.14YJC790152)the Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission(No.2016-SHNGE-03-ZD)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2013M531157)
文摘Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparative analysis of the influences of different types of monetary policy instruments towards different regional housing prices. The empirical results show that both the quantitative instruments represented by M2 and the pricing instruments represented by real interest rate have increasing influences on different regional housing prices,but the former influence is much stronger than the latter. The influential differences of quantitative instruments to regional housing prices are much greater. It means the higher the regional housing price is, the greater the influence is. Therefore, the central bank shall optimize the combination of monetary policy instruments according to the above characteristics of different types of monetary policy instruments in order to acquire the regulatory target of real estate market.
