Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel usinga quantitative risk approach

With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades,there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design.While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters,with the advent of reliability-based methods,this no longer needs to be the case.Instead,a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads.This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk.This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece.Along this section of tunnel,weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions,which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support.Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine,in hindsight,the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure.Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

Quantitative risk assessment & leak detection criteria for a subsea oil export pipeline

A quantitative risk assessment （QRA） based on leak detection criteria （LDC） for the design of a proposed subsea oil export pipeline is presented in this paper. The objective of this QRA/LDC study was to determine if current leak detection methodologies were sufficient, based on QRA results, while excluding the use of statistical leak detection; if not, an appropriate LDC for the leak detection system would need to be established. The famous UK PARLOC database was used for the calculation of pipeline failure rates, and the software POSVCM from MMS was used for oil spill simulations. QRA results revealed that the installation of a statistically based leak detection system （LDS） can significantly reduce time to leak detection, thereby mitigating the consequences of leakage. A sound LDC has been defined based on QRA study results and comments from various LDS vendors to assist the emergency response team （ERT） to quickly identify and locate leakage and employ the most effective measures to contain damage.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Quantitative and Qualitative Information Risk Approaches

Due to rapidly development of information systems, risk and security issues have increased and became a phenomenon that concerns every organization, without considering the size of it. To achieve desired results, managers have to implement methods of evaluating and mitigating risk as part of a process well elaborated. Security risk management helps managers to better control the business practices and improve the business process. An effective risk management process is based on a successful IT security program. This doesn＇t mean that the main goal of an organization＇s risk management process is to protect its IT assets, but to protect the organization and its ability to perform their missions. During this process, managers have to take into consideration risks that can affect the organization and apply the most suitable measures to minimize their impact. The most important task is choosing the best suited method for analyzing the existing risk properly. Several methods have been developed, being classified in quantitative and qualitative approaches of evaluating risk. The purpose of this paper is to present the advantages and disadvantages of each approach taking current needs and opportunities into consideration.

基于QRA法的氢气管束车事故后果模拟分析

氢气泄漏后,如不能及时进行处理,可能会引起火灾、爆炸等事故。因此,文章以某实验项目氢气管束车为研究对象,利用QRA定量风险评价软件,模拟氢气管束车发生喷射火灾、蒸气云爆炸和压力容器爆炸等事故后果,并围绕可能造成的事故后果,对氢气管束车作业过程提出有针对性的安全对策措施与建议。

Penetration Study of Key Technologies for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

In recent years,with the frequent occurrence of cyber security incidents,people have paid more attention to it.Information security risk assessment is a very important research topic.This paper gives a brief overview of the theory of cybersecurity risk assessment,focuses on the description of the current mainstream cybersecurity risk assessment methods,classifies and compares the existing methods according to the nature of the methods,and analyses the advantages,disadvantages,and application scope of each method.Finally,the main factors affecting the evaluation results are summarized and refined,and future research hotspots in this field are proposed.Through the empirical analysis of the three factors,the influence of the correlation of the three factors,the uncertainty of the evaluation indexes,and the timeliness of the evaluation on the evaluation results are concluded,which provides a reference for future research on evaluation methods.

危险化学品企业基于四区分离的安全风险定量分析(QRA)方法研究

危险化学品企业实施“四区分离”需要借助安全风险定量分析(QRA)为总图布局提供技术支撑,定量分析过程中输入模型的数据取值是否符合客观实际,将对四区分离方案产生重大影响。本文通过对安全风险定量分析过程中的参数取值、事故场景选择、环境影响等进行分析,对基于四区分离的安全风险定量分析工作具有指导和借鉴作用。

Developing global image feature analysis models to predict cancer risk and prognosis

In order to develop precision or personalized medicine,identifying new quantitative imaging markers and building machine learning models to predict cancer risk and prognosis has been attracting broad research interest recently.Most of these research approaches use the similar concepts of the conventional computer-aided detection schemes of medical images,which include steps in detecting and segmenting suspicious regions or tumors,followed by training machine learning models based on the fusion of multiple image features computed from the segmented regions or tumors.However,due to the heterogeneity and boundary fuzziness of the suspicious regions or tumors,segmenting subtle regions is often difficult and unreliable.Additionally,ignoring global and/or background parenchymal tissue characteristics may also be a limitation of the conventional approaches.In our recent studies,we investigated the feasibility of developing new computer-aided schemes implemented with the machine learning models that are trained by global image features to predict cancer risk and prognosis.We trained and tested several models using images obtained from full-field digital mammography,magnetic resonance imaging,and computed tomography of breast,lung,and ovarian cancers.Study results showed that many of these new models yielded higher performance than other approaches used in current clinical practice.Furthermore,the computed global image features also contain complementary information from the features computed from the segmented regions or tumors in predicting cancer prognosis.Therefore,the global image features can be used alone to develop new case-based prediction models or can be added to current tumor-based models to increase their discriminatory power.

基于QRA的多米诺效应在化工园区的应用

提出了基于QRA的多米诺效应的应用方法。以某化工园区为例,用于评估其整体安全风险。结果表明,可燃物料泄漏扩散发生蒸汽云爆炸超压影响周边企业较小,引发其他企业内的二次多米诺事故可能性较小;可燃物料泄漏后发生喷射火,如无建筑外墙等防护措施,会引发临近企业设备的次生多米诺效应;液氨、液氯、硫化氢、溴素、乙胺和氟化氢等毒性物料,扩散距离相对较远,产生的灾害范围比较广,容易引发次生多米诺效应。液氨、液化气等物料液体膨胀蒸气爆炸产生的碎片抛射距离较远,有可能会引发次生多米诺事故,危害极大。企业应制定相应的应急响应计划,以降低多米诺效应带来的风险。评估结果可提升园区安全与应急管理能力、事故预防与控制技术水平。

冠状动脉CT血管成像CCTA斑块定量分析评估老年冠心病患者高危斑块进展的价值

目的探讨冠状动脉CT血管成像(CCTA)斑块定量分析对于老年冠心病患者高危斑块进展的评估价值。方法纳入2020/08-2022/08该院心内科接诊的90例老年冠心病病例,均接受CCTA检查,按照是否为高危斑块分为高危组、非高危组,对于高危斑块依据1年随访后斑块进展情况分为进展组、未进展组,对比其CCTA斑块定量参数差异及对高危斑块进展的预测价值。结果CCTA检查发现高危斑块发生率达83.33%(75/90),其中点状钙化斑块64例(71.11%),低密度斑块38例(42.22%),重塑指数RI、脂质斑块负荷大于非高危组(P<0.05),高危组基于CCTA血流储备分数(FFRct)及冠脉周围脂肪衰减指数(FAI)均低于非高危组(P<0.05);进展组的斑块总体积和非钙化斑块体积、狭窄程度、RI、脂质斑块负荷均大于无进展组(P<0.05),进展组最小管腔面积、FFRct、FAI小于无进展组(P<0.05);斑块总体积和非钙化斑块体积、狭窄程度、最小管腔面积、FFRct、FAI、RI、脂质斑块负荷及各项联合预测老年冠心病病例的高危斑块进展ROC曲线下面积分别是0.807、0.801、0.788、0.756、0.763、0.768、0.775、0.806、0.872。结论CCTA斑块定量分析评估老年冠心病患者高危斑块及其进展有重要意义,值得在临床推广应用。

Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Rainfall-Induced Complex Landslide in Wanzhou County,Three Gorges Reservoir,China

On 4 April 2013,a 1.5 million cubic meter landslide occurred in Sunjia Town,Wanzhou County,Three Gorges Reservoir,China.After initiation,the Sunjia landslide traveled about 30 m toward the northeast and destroyed most of the infrastructure in its path.The landslide was triggered by heavy rainfall and previous slope excavations,but this slope also displayed a complicated failure process:the overlying earth slope first deformed and then induced sliding along underlying rock surfaces.Surface displacements that resulted from continuous creeping of the post-event slope were observed by an emergency monitoring system that revealed the disequilibrium state of the slope.To discuss the stability and future movements of the remaining unstable debris deposits,we developed a geotechnical model of the post-slide slope,calculated how it can slide again in an extreme rainfall scenario,and estimated the potential runout distance using the Tsunami Squares method.We then estimated the number of people and the value of the infrastructure threatened by this potential landslide.Lastly,we analyzed the vulnerability of elements at risk and quantitatively evaluated the hazard risk associated with the most dangerous scenario.This quantitative risk analysis provides a better understanding of,and technical routes for,hazard mitigation of rainfallinduced complex landslides.

气象因子相对危险度在电网用电负荷预测中的应用

[目的]准确高效的短期用电负荷预测是保证电力系统安全可靠运行的前提,也是电网合理安排发电计划的依据,因此研究气象与用电负荷的关系对负荷预测的工作具有重要意义。[方法]以石家庄为例,利用国网河北省某电力公司提供的2013年1月1日至2021年12月31日逐15 min用电负荷资料,以及对应的石家庄站气象观测资料,分析日用电负荷峰值的时间变化特征,重点分析了当日用电负荷峰值较前1日用电负荷峰值变幅超过10%的样本对应的气象条件。采用Spearman秩相关方法分析石家庄日用电负荷峰值与前1日气象要素的相关关系,得到相关性显著的气象要素。利用平滑曲线拟合法绘制各相关性显著的气象要素对次日用电负荷峰值的响应曲线,分析得出随着各气象要素的变化日用电负荷峰值变化趋势以及响应阈值。按不同阈值区间,基于泊松分布计算得出石家庄地区各气象要素对日用电负荷峰值变化的相对危险度,进而揭示石家庄地区各气象要素在不同阈值区间发生单位变化造成的日用电负荷峰值的变化幅度,即不同气象要素的变化对日用电负荷峰值变化的定量影响。[结果]以气温为例,当日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温高于阈值时,每上升1℃,次日用电负荷峰值的相对危险度分别增加2.25%、1.92%、2.07%;低于阈值时,每上升1℃,次日用电负荷峰值的相对危险度分别减少0.62%、0.57%、0.60%。[结论]基于不同气象要素对石家庄地区日用电负荷峰值的相对危险度提出1种次日用电负荷峰值的预测方法,利用2022年逐日用电负荷和气象资料进行检验,发现预测效果可以满足日常电力气象服务需求。

网络安全风险评估方法研究综述

网络安全风险评估是构建网络空间安全体系的重要环节,可以有效保护个人和组织机构避免受到网络安全攻击。文中简要概述了网络安全风险评估理论,重点介绍了目前主流的网络安全风险评估方法,并根据不同的方法性质对现有方法进行分类和对比,分析了各方法的优缺点以及适用范围。在此基础上,文中归纳提取出对网络安全评估结果产生影响的因素并对网络安全评估领域未来的研究重点进行提议。分析结果表明,关联性和评估指标的不确定性以及评估过程的实时性这3个因素是影响风险评估效果的主要因素,并给未来的风险评估方法研究提供了参考依据。

基于情景仿真的丙烷储罐事故后果定量分析

为了研究丙烷储罐(球罐)泄漏所导致的安全事故的结果及其影响因素,基于定量风险分析软件对丙烷储罐泄漏可能发生的几种事故类型进行情景仿真计算。根据模拟得出的数据对事故后果进行量化展示,且观察不同风速和大气稳定度对于丙烷储罐泄漏事故后果的影响,对其进行定量风险分析,并据此提出安全预防和事故处理建议,以为相关安全工作提供参考和依据。

大型石化项目设计应用QRA技术要点

简要阐述了在炼油乙烯一体化大型石化工程项目中应用QRA技术应重点注意的前期策划、事故假设、技术审查、设计应用等关键技术和管理问题,对爆炸事故分析计算过程的一些模糊概念进行了澄清。

国内外政策工具视角下亚硫酸盐类药用辅料及添加剂风险控制措施

目的 分析国内外亚硫酸盐类药用辅料和食品添加剂风险控制政策的使用情况,为优化政策提供参考意见。方法 基于政策工具视角,构建政策工具-风险来源-国家/地区的三维政策分析框架,对纳入政策文件进行分析和编码。结果 共纳入政策文件101份,政策条目编码163条,政策发布年份为2000—2022年。强制性、混合性、自愿性政策工具分别占70.55%、16.56%、12.88%。结论 各类型政策工具内部使用频数差异大,使用结构不均衡。我国对亚硫酸盐类药用辅料缺少针对性管理政策,在食品药品标签无含量说明,有待调整。

基于拉曼光谱的锂电池热解气危险定量研究

为了解决传统锂离子电池热失控气体检测手段存在检测周期长、易交叉干扰等问题,系统地定量研究锂离子电池热解气体潜在危险性。提出气体拉曼光谱分析技术结合多种气体安全定量分析方法,对三元锂离子电池(以下简称锂离子电池)热解气体毒性及潜在燃爆危险性进行全面研究。通过建立的热失控特征气体预测模型,着重分析了不同荷电状态(25%、50%、75%、100%)下锂离子电池热失控气体浓度、气体生成量、爆炸极限、压力特性、爆炸严重程度变化规律,并结合实际场景评估电池火灾毒性。研究表明:拉曼光谱气体浓度定量模型可精准预测锂离子电池热失控气体浓度信息,H_(2)、CO_(2)和CO总浓度占热失控释放气体总量的80.31%~94.56%,最大压力、最大升压速率、爆炸指数和气体爆炸极限范围随着SOC增加呈现先减小后增大的趋势,50%SOC的锂离子电池表现出最好的气体安全性,爆炸极限范围最窄,为9.66%~25.27%,电池火灾具有灾难性毒性。

Explosion Hazard Analysis of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Transportation

This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)transportation.An accident that happened on June 13,2020,on the highway near Wenling,China is studied as a case.In this accident,LPG carried by a tank truck on the highway leaked and caused a large explosion,which led to 20 deaths.Different methods are combined to calculate the consequence of the accident.Multi-energy model and rupture of vessel model are employed to calculate the overpressure;the simulation result of the multi-energy model is closer to the damage caused by the accident.The safety distances in accidents of LPG transport storage tanks of different capacities are calculated in this study;the results show that the damage of explosion will increase with the filling degree of the tank.Even though the filling degree is 90%(value required by law),the 99%fatality rate range will reach 42 m,which is higher than regulated distance between road and building.The social risk of the tank truck has also been calculated and the results show that the risk is not acceptable.The calculating method used in this study could evaluate the risk of LPG tanker more accurately,which may contribute to the establishment of transportation regulation so that losses from similar accidents in the future could be reduced.

金融工程在量化投资策略中的应用

文章主要探讨金融工程在量化投资策略中的应用。首先,介绍了金融工程在量化投资策略中的重要性和作用,然后阐述了量化投资策略的原理与技术。接着,详细分析了金融工程在量化投资策略中的应用,包括股票市场分析、金融风险管理、投资组合优化、市场流动性分析和金融创新等方面。最后,总结了金融工程在量化投资策略中的贡献和未来的发展趋势。

基于DNV Safeti软件在天然气管道高后果区的应用

天然气长输管道是输气管道工程的基础工程设施,输气介质天然气属于易燃易爆物质,管道具有高压力属性主要风险为天然气的泄漏点火产生喷射火、闪火和蒸汽云爆炸。文章采用DNV Safeti软件对某输气管道高后果区进行了定量分析,计算出喷射火、闪火和蒸汽云爆炸的影响距离,以及计算出个人风险等值线和社会风险曲线,为建设项目设计、运行提供参考。可以为管道企业明确管道高后果区可能的影响范围和可能造成的后果,还可以企业在管道防腐管理、地灾管理、管道维修维护与保卫保护等方面采取针对性的的管理措施和技术措施,从而进行有效风险控制,减小管道沿线的环境影响和公众损失。