Landslide risk assessment(LRA)is of great significance to hazard prevention and mitigation.However,the historical landslide information is incomplete in most areas,which makes the landslide quantitative risk assessmen...Landslide risk assessment(LRA)is of great significance to hazard prevention and mitigation.However,the historical landslide information is incomplete in most areas,which makes the landslide quantitative risk assessment(LQRA)extremely difficult.This research proposed a set of frameworks for LQRA,so as to achieve LQRA in areas with incomplete historical landslide information.Firstly,we constructed the convolutional neural network(CNN)model suitable for landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA)by studying the structure and hyperparameters optimization of CNN.Secondly,we proposed a method to calculate the temporal probability by using the Poisson model based on the time range of historical landslides occurrence,and then conducted landslide hazard assessment(LHA).Then,we established a mathematical model for landslide intensity of shallow landslide based on landslide area and slope,aiming at solving the problem that it is difficult to calculate landslide intensity due to the lack of landslide volume and velocity.Based on the landslide intensity and the hazard-resistant capacity of the element at risk,we assessed the landslide vulnerability.Finally,population risk map and economic risk map are obtained based on the landslide hazard,vulnerability,and estimated value of the elements at risk.The proposed LQRA framework was applied to Tumen City,China for testing and field validation.From the results,the CNN model built can help improve the accuracy of LSA.The proposed temporal probability calculation method is conducive to the completion of LHA in areas with incomplete historical landslide information.The established landslide intensity mathematical model has certain credibility.Since the landslide risk map is obtained through appropriate simplification and substitution estimation,its final value cannot be used as an accurate prediction of future losses,but it can be used as a reference for the extent of potential losses,so as to determine the areas where hazard prevention and mitigation measures need to be taken.展开更多
In recent years,with the frequent occurrence of cyber security incidents,people have paid more attention to it.Information security risk assessment is a very important research topic.This paper gives a brief overview ...In recent years,with the frequent occurrence of cyber security incidents,people have paid more attention to it.Information security risk assessment is a very important research topic.This paper gives a brief overview of the theory of cybersecurity risk assessment,focuses on the description of the current mainstream cybersecurity risk assessment methods,classifies and compares the existing methods according to the nature of the methods,and analyses the advantages,disadvantages,and application scope of each method.Finally,the main factors affecting the evaluation results are summarized and refined,and future research hotspots in this field are proposed.Through the empirical analysis of the three factors,the influence of the correlation of the three factors,the uncertainty of the evaluation indexes,and the timeliness of the evaluation on the evaluation results are concluded,which provides a reference for future research on evaluation methods.展开更多
The assessment of potential risks posed by formaldehyde in clothing to consumers is of increasing concern worldwide,for free formaldehyde is harmful to human. Some papers focus on hazard and exposure assessment,using ...The assessment of potential risks posed by formaldehyde in clothing to consumers is of increasing concern worldwide,for free formaldehyde is harmful to human. Some papers focus on hazard and exposure assessment,using quantitative and semi-quantitative method, rather than assessment for the factors related to formaldehyde content. In order to perform early-warning research and risk management,the quantitative risk assessment is used to analyze the imported textile testing data and find the factors related to formaldehyde content. K-means algorithm is the core of the method. It can be concluded that the disqualified textiles have relations with main fiber components,fabric color,season month,and brand. Then the data in the same attribute are clustered by Kmeans algorithm. The different classes are defined as related danger level,respectively severe,moderate,and light.展开更多
Aiming at the problem that the existing risk assessment methods in China cannot simply and accurately assess the safety risk of gas wells, a rapid semi-quantitative risk assessment method for gas wells under high temp...Aiming at the problem that the existing risk assessment methods in China cannot simply and accurately assess the safety risk of gas wells, a rapid semi-quantitative risk assessment method for gas wells under high temperature and pressure is studied. Based on the rapid risk assessment method of annulus well with pressure in Chevron Company and the existing risk assessment methods, the well barrier and annulus pressure of high temperature and high pressure gas wells are fully considered. A rapid semi-quantitative risk assessment method for high temperature and high pressure gas wells is established, which takes the annulus pressure value, well service life, annulus pressure recovery after pressure relief, reservoir conditions (formation pressure, production) and well CO<sub style="font-family:" white-space:normal;"=""><span style="font-size:12px;font-family:Verdana;">2 </span></sub><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and H</span><sub style="font-family:" white-space:normal;"=""><span style="font-size:12px;font-family:Verdana;">2</span></sub><span style="font-family:Verdana;">S content as the key risk indexes. The method is applied in a gas field, and the risk value and risk grade of a practical well are semi-quantitatively evaluated. The overall risk situation of the well is obtained. The research results provide important technical guidance for the safe production of gas well.</span>展开更多
The use of wastewater in urban agriculture has been promoted as an alternative to water scarcity and as a means to increase soil fertilizer. However, the use of wastewater in urban agriculture raises major public heal...The use of wastewater in urban agriculture has been promoted as an alternative to water scarcity and as a means to increase soil fertilizer. However, the use of wastewater in urban agriculture raises major public health concerns, mainly due to the often high concentration of pathogenic micro-organisms. Waterborne parasites are a major health concern in this regard, especially in endemic areas, mainly due to the high environmental resistance of eggs/cysts combined with a low infectious dose. In this study, the parasitological risk to vegetables producers in Ouagadougou using polluted water was evaluated through the quantitative microbiological risk analysis method. For this purpose, the search for and quantification of viable parasite eggs and cysts in irrigation water was coupled with epidemiological surveillance of vegetables producers in Ouagadougou. Protozoa and helminths belonging to 9 species were recorded and samples analyzed. These include <em>Ancylostoma</em> sp., <em>Ascaris lumbricoides</em>, tapeworm’s sp, <em>Strongyloides stercoralis</em>, <em>Entamoeba histolytica</em>, <em>Giardia lamblia</em>. Despite the variability of isolated parasitic species, <em>Ancylostoma</em> sp. eggs were common and severe to all types of water. Moreover, epidemiological approach showed that there were more parasitic species found in irrigation water and also other parasitic species circulating among vegetable farmers. In addition, there is no statistical significant association between the type of water used for irrigation and the carried parasites by vegetable gardeners. However, contamination of the groups using the raw wastewater is once higher than those using well water. When one is interested in the groups using treated wastewater as a source of irrigation, these risks of contaminations are halved. These contaminations are halved when one looks at groups using treated wastewater as a source of irrigation water. Still, whatever the type of water used by the gardeners, they have a probability of infection with <em>Ancylostoma</em> sp. of around 9.83 × 10<sup><span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">−</span></span>1</sup> pppy.展开更多
Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was ...Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.展开更多
This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of plants producing and storing explosives. The major procedural steps for quantified risk assessment (QRA) in explosive plants are the following: hazard identi...This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of plants producing and storing explosives. The major procedural steps for quantified risk assessment (QRA) in explosive plants are the following: hazard identification, accident sequence modeling, data acquisition, accident sequence quantification, consequence assessment and integration of results. This methodology is demonstrated and applied in an explosive plant consisting of four separate units, which produce detonating cord, nitroglycol, dynamites and ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO). A GIS platform is used for depicting individual risk from explosions in this plant. Total individual risk is equal to 1.0 × 10^-4/y in a distance of 340m from the center of the plant, and 1.0 × 10^-6/y in a distance of 390m from the center of the plant.展开更多
Objective To understand the occurrence and distribution of Campylobacter jejuni in chicken in China, assess its health risk to the Chinese population, and provide recommendations for effective risk control. Methods Da...Objective To understand the occurrence and distribution of Campylobacter jejuni in chicken in China, assess its health risk to the Chinese population, and provide recommendations for effective risk control. Methods Data from the National Food Safety Risk Surveillance Network on Campylobacter jejuni between 2007 and 2010 and from published articles were analyzed. Eleven parameters were used based on the whole chicken preparation process and prevalence of Campylobocter jejuni for risk assessment by using the Ross-Sumner Method. Results The detection rates of Campylobacterjejuni in raw chicken were between 0.29% and 2.28% during 2007-2010 in China (more than 20 provinces). The probability of illness caused by Campylobacter jejuni due to chicken consumption was around six out of one million consumers per day in urban areas and around one out of one million consumers per day in rural areas. Total predicted illnesses per year was about 736 000, accounting for 1.6‰ of the general population in urban areas and about 301 000, accounting for 0.37‰ of the total population in rural areas. The risk rankings of Campylobocterjejuni in chicken were 52 and 49 in urban and rural areas, respectively. Conclusion A high risk score for Campylobacterjejuni in chicken was obtained in China. This result may contribute to development of food safety management strategies. Key efforts should be made to control the risk of Campylobacterjejuni in chicken in China, especially in chick breeding and chicken preparation processes.展开更多
Regulations for the Supervision and Administration of Cosmetics was promulgated by the State Council on June 29,2020 and will take effect on January 1,2021.Compared with the previous Regulations on Health Supervision ...Regulations for the Supervision and Administration of Cosmetics was promulgated by the State Council on June 29,2020 and will take effect on January 1,2021.Compared with the previous Regulations on Health Supervision of Cosmetics,there are more items proposed for the safety of cosmetics.In this paper,the main changes of the safety supervision of cosmetics by comparing the“new”and“old”regulations were summarized with the potential influences on different groups(government,cosmetic enterprises and consumers)discussed.The important laws and regulations on cosmetic safety and risk assessment in China with recently added in vitro testing methods were summarized and the principal theory of cosmetic quantitative risk assessment was introduced.展开更多
Aircraft icing has been proven to be one of the most serious threats to flight safety. During the analysis of flight risk under icing conditions, quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk are quite esse...Aircraft icing has been proven to be one of the most serious threats to flight safety. During the analysis of flight risk under icing conditions, quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk are quite essential as they provide safe manipulation strategies in intricate conditions.However, they are rarely studied. Since the icing flight accidents are the result of the coupling of multiple unfavorable factors, in present study, we have proposed a method to quantitatively assess flight risk induced by multi-factor coupling under icing conditions by Monte-Carlo simulation and multivariate extreme value theory. The results demonstrate that the flight risk probability increases with the rise of unfavorable factors. Besides, a flight risk visualization method named flight safety window has been presented to build the flight risk distribution cloud maps in different complex conditions. The cloud maps show that the icing would give rise to atrophy of the safety scope, and the consequence would be even more severe when coupled with other more unfavorable factors. The proposed methods in this study would be useful in flight risk analysis under icing conditions and can enhance the pilot's situational awareness in selecting correct strategies within the safety zone to avoid unsafe manipulation.展开更多
文摘Landslide risk assessment(LRA)is of great significance to hazard prevention and mitigation.However,the historical landslide information is incomplete in most areas,which makes the landslide quantitative risk assessment(LQRA)extremely difficult.This research proposed a set of frameworks for LQRA,so as to achieve LQRA in areas with incomplete historical landslide information.Firstly,we constructed the convolutional neural network(CNN)model suitable for landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA)by studying the structure and hyperparameters optimization of CNN.Secondly,we proposed a method to calculate the temporal probability by using the Poisson model based on the time range of historical landslides occurrence,and then conducted landslide hazard assessment(LHA).Then,we established a mathematical model for landslide intensity of shallow landslide based on landslide area and slope,aiming at solving the problem that it is difficult to calculate landslide intensity due to the lack of landslide volume and velocity.Based on the landslide intensity and the hazard-resistant capacity of the element at risk,we assessed the landslide vulnerability.Finally,population risk map and economic risk map are obtained based on the landslide hazard,vulnerability,and estimated value of the elements at risk.The proposed LQRA framework was applied to Tumen City,China for testing and field validation.From the results,the CNN model built can help improve the accuracy of LSA.The proposed temporal probability calculation method is conducive to the completion of LHA in areas with incomplete historical landslide information.The established landslide intensity mathematical model has certain credibility.Since the landslide risk map is obtained through appropriate simplification and substitution estimation,its final value cannot be used as an accurate prediction of future losses,but it can be used as a reference for the extent of potential losses,so as to determine the areas where hazard prevention and mitigation measures need to be taken.
文摘In recent years,with the frequent occurrence of cyber security incidents,people have paid more attention to it.Information security risk assessment is a very important research topic.This paper gives a brief overview of the theory of cybersecurity risk assessment,focuses on the description of the current mainstream cybersecurity risk assessment methods,classifies and compares the existing methods according to the nature of the methods,and analyses the advantages,disadvantages,and application scope of each method.Finally,the main factors affecting the evaluation results are summarized and refined,and future research hotspots in this field are proposed.Through the empirical analysis of the three factors,the influence of the correlation of the three factors,the uncertainty of the evaluation indexes,and the timeliness of the evaluation on the evaluation results are concluded,which provides a reference for future research on evaluation methods.
基金AQSIQ Science and Technology Projects,China(No.2013IK116)
文摘The assessment of potential risks posed by formaldehyde in clothing to consumers is of increasing concern worldwide,for free formaldehyde is harmful to human. Some papers focus on hazard and exposure assessment,using quantitative and semi-quantitative method, rather than assessment for the factors related to formaldehyde content. In order to perform early-warning research and risk management,the quantitative risk assessment is used to analyze the imported textile testing data and find the factors related to formaldehyde content. K-means algorithm is the core of the method. It can be concluded that the disqualified textiles have relations with main fiber components,fabric color,season month,and brand. Then the data in the same attribute are clustered by Kmeans algorithm. The different classes are defined as related danger level,respectively severe,moderate,and light.
文摘Aiming at the problem that the existing risk assessment methods in China cannot simply and accurately assess the safety risk of gas wells, a rapid semi-quantitative risk assessment method for gas wells under high temperature and pressure is studied. Based on the rapid risk assessment method of annulus well with pressure in Chevron Company and the existing risk assessment methods, the well barrier and annulus pressure of high temperature and high pressure gas wells are fully considered. A rapid semi-quantitative risk assessment method for high temperature and high pressure gas wells is established, which takes the annulus pressure value, well service life, annulus pressure recovery after pressure relief, reservoir conditions (formation pressure, production) and well CO<sub style="font-family:" white-space:normal;"=""><span style="font-size:12px;font-family:Verdana;">2 </span></sub><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and H</span><sub style="font-family:" white-space:normal;"=""><span style="font-size:12px;font-family:Verdana;">2</span></sub><span style="font-family:Verdana;">S content as the key risk indexes. The method is applied in a gas field, and the risk value and risk grade of a practical well are semi-quantitatively evaluated. The overall risk situation of the well is obtained. The research results provide important technical guidance for the safe production of gas well.</span>
文摘The use of wastewater in urban agriculture has been promoted as an alternative to water scarcity and as a means to increase soil fertilizer. However, the use of wastewater in urban agriculture raises major public health concerns, mainly due to the often high concentration of pathogenic micro-organisms. Waterborne parasites are a major health concern in this regard, especially in endemic areas, mainly due to the high environmental resistance of eggs/cysts combined with a low infectious dose. In this study, the parasitological risk to vegetables producers in Ouagadougou using polluted water was evaluated through the quantitative microbiological risk analysis method. For this purpose, the search for and quantification of viable parasite eggs and cysts in irrigation water was coupled with epidemiological surveillance of vegetables producers in Ouagadougou. Protozoa and helminths belonging to 9 species were recorded and samples analyzed. These include <em>Ancylostoma</em> sp., <em>Ascaris lumbricoides</em>, tapeworm’s sp, <em>Strongyloides stercoralis</em>, <em>Entamoeba histolytica</em>, <em>Giardia lamblia</em>. Despite the variability of isolated parasitic species, <em>Ancylostoma</em> sp. eggs were common and severe to all types of water. Moreover, epidemiological approach showed that there were more parasitic species found in irrigation water and also other parasitic species circulating among vegetable farmers. In addition, there is no statistical significant association between the type of water used for irrigation and the carried parasites by vegetable gardeners. However, contamination of the groups using the raw wastewater is once higher than those using well water. When one is interested in the groups using treated wastewater as a source of irrigation, these risks of contaminations are halved. These contaminations are halved when one looks at groups using treated wastewater as a source of irrigation water. Still, whatever the type of water used by the gardeners, they have a probability of infection with <em>Ancylostoma</em> sp. of around 9.83 × 10<sup><span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">−</span></span>1</sup> pppy.
基金Supported by the Key Project for National Social Science Foundation of China(12AZD109)National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171202)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Central South University(2014zzts127)
文摘Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.
文摘This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of plants producing and storing explosives. The major procedural steps for quantified risk assessment (QRA) in explosive plants are the following: hazard identification, accident sequence modeling, data acquisition, accident sequence quantification, consequence assessment and integration of results. This methodology is demonstrated and applied in an explosive plant consisting of four separate units, which produce detonating cord, nitroglycol, dynamites and ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO). A GIS platform is used for depicting individual risk from explosions in this plant. Total individual risk is equal to 1.0 × 10^-4/y in a distance of 340m from the center of the plant, and 1.0 × 10^-6/y in a distance of 390m from the center of the plant.
文摘Objective To understand the occurrence and distribution of Campylobacter jejuni in chicken in China, assess its health risk to the Chinese population, and provide recommendations for effective risk control. Methods Data from the National Food Safety Risk Surveillance Network on Campylobacter jejuni between 2007 and 2010 and from published articles were analyzed. Eleven parameters were used based on the whole chicken preparation process and prevalence of Campylobocter jejuni for risk assessment by using the Ross-Sumner Method. Results The detection rates of Campylobacterjejuni in raw chicken were between 0.29% and 2.28% during 2007-2010 in China (more than 20 provinces). The probability of illness caused by Campylobacter jejuni due to chicken consumption was around six out of one million consumers per day in urban areas and around one out of one million consumers per day in rural areas. Total predicted illnesses per year was about 736 000, accounting for 1.6‰ of the general population in urban areas and about 301 000, accounting for 0.37‰ of the total population in rural areas. The risk rankings of Campylobocterjejuni in chicken were 52 and 49 in urban and rural areas, respectively. Conclusion A high risk score for Campylobacterjejuni in chicken was obtained in China. This result may contribute to development of food safety management strategies. Key efforts should be made to control the risk of Campylobacterjejuni in chicken in China, especially in chick breeding and chicken preparation processes.
文摘Regulations for the Supervision and Administration of Cosmetics was promulgated by the State Council on June 29,2020 and will take effect on January 1,2021.Compared with the previous Regulations on Health Supervision of Cosmetics,there are more items proposed for the safety of cosmetics.In this paper,the main changes of the safety supervision of cosmetics by comparing the“new”and“old”regulations were summarized with the potential influences on different groups(government,cosmetic enterprises and consumers)discussed.The important laws and regulations on cosmetic safety and risk assessment in China with recently added in vitro testing methods were summarized and the principal theory of cosmetic quantitative risk assessment was introduced.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (No. 2015CB755802)。
文摘Aircraft icing has been proven to be one of the most serious threats to flight safety. During the analysis of flight risk under icing conditions, quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk are quite essential as they provide safe manipulation strategies in intricate conditions.However, they are rarely studied. Since the icing flight accidents are the result of the coupling of multiple unfavorable factors, in present study, we have proposed a method to quantitatively assess flight risk induced by multi-factor coupling under icing conditions by Monte-Carlo simulation and multivariate extreme value theory. The results demonstrate that the flight risk probability increases with the rise of unfavorable factors. Besides, a flight risk visualization method named flight safety window has been presented to build the flight risk distribution cloud maps in different complex conditions. The cloud maps show that the icing would give rise to atrophy of the safety scope, and the consequence would be even more severe when coupled with other more unfavorable factors. The proposed methods in this study would be useful in flight risk analysis under icing conditions and can enhance the pilot's situational awareness in selecting correct strategies within the safety zone to avoid unsafe manipulation.