Forecasting the Quasi-stationary Front Rainstorm in Southeast China Using the Synthetically Multilevel Analog Forecast Technology

The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.

A Case Study of Mesoscale Convective Band(MCB) Development and Evolution along a Quasi-stationary Front

This paper presents a case study of mesoscale convective band （MCB） development along a quasi-stationary front over the Seout metropolitan area.The MCB,which initiated on 1500 UTC 20 September 2010 and ended on 1400 UTC 21 September 2010,produced a total precipitation amount of 259.5 mm.The MCB development occurred during a period of tropopause folding in the upper level and moisture advection with a low-level jet.The analyses show that the evolution of the MCB can be classified into five periods：（1） the cell-forming period,when convection initiated; （2） the frontogenetic period,when the stationary front formed over the Korean peninsula; （3） the quasi-stationary period,when the convective band remained over Seoul for 3 h; （4） the mature period,when the cloud cover was largest and the precipitation rate was greater than 90 mm h-1; and （5） the dissipating period,when the MCB diminished and disappeared.The synoptic,thermodynamic,and dynamic analyses show that the MCB maintained its longevity by a tilted updraft,which headed towards a positive PV anomaly.Precipitation was concentrated under this area,where a tilted ascending southwesterly converged with a tilted ascending northeasterly,at the axis of cyclonic rotation.The formation of the convective cell was attributed in part by tropopause folding,which enhanced the cyclonic vorticity at the surface,and by the low-level convergence of warm moist air and upperlevel divergence.The southwesterly flow ascended in a region with high moisture content and strong relative vorticity that maintained the development of an MCB along the quasi-stationary front.

Numerical Modellings of Properties of the Summer Quasi-Stationary Circulation Systems and Their Monthly Variations

An ocean-atmosphere and land-air coupled numerical model system is used to study the basic properties and the monthly time variations of the summer quasi-stationary circulation systems. It is found that either at the upper or at the lower levels of the atmosphere, the circulation patterns have a two-wave structure in the zonal direction at the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Such a structure of circulation is totally matchable to that of the land-sea distribution there. It is proved, hence, that the land-sea distributive pattern is the fundamental cause for the summer quasi-stationary circulation pattern. The topography in the globe is the secondary factor for circulation systems. The circulation centres of the quasi-stationary systems are always located in certain areas due to the thermodynamic contrast between land and sea.From the time evolutions of the circulation systems it is seen that the change is larger at the beginning period of the time integration, it is because of using the zonally averaged mean fields as the initial values of the model. As long as the basic simulated pattern of circulations reaches the state similar to that of the real climatic fields resulting from the coeffects of the land-sea distribution and the topography, the circulation systems modelled will change slowly and tend to a quasi-stationary state. Therefore, the time integration does not need to last for a very long time, if the purpose of numerical modellings is to test sensitivities of some factors influencing the climate, 20 model days may be enough for sensitive experiments.

Approximations of Quasi-Stationary Distributions of the Stochastic <i>SVIR</i>Model for the Measles

In this paper, we analyze the quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic SVIR (Susceptible, Vaccinated, Infected, Recovered) model for the measles. The quasi-stationary distributions, as discussed by Danoch and Seneta, have been used in biology to describe the steady state behaviour of population models which exhibit discernible stationarity before to become extinct. The stochastic SVIR model is a stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model with vaccination and recruitment where the disease-free equilibrium is reached, regardless of the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. But the mean time until the absorption (the disease-free) can be very long. If we assume the effective reproduction number Rp < 1 or , the quasi-stationary distribution can be closely approximated by geometric distribution. β and δ stands respectively, for the disease transmission coefficient and the natural rate.

Almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of a class of quasi-stationary sequences

This paper investigates the problem of almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of quasi-stationary sequence based on the result of Turkman and Walker. We prove an almost sure limit theorem for the maximum of a class of quasi-stationary sequence under weak dependence conditions of D （uk, un） and αtm,ln = 0 （（log log n）-（1＋ε））.

QUASI-STATIONARY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE RADIAL ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESSES

The purpose of this article is to obtain the quasi-stationary distributions of the δ（δ 〈 2）-dimensional radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameter -λ by using the methods of Martinez and San Martin （2001）. It is described that the law of this process conditioned on first hitting 0 is just the probability measure induced by a （4 - δ）- dimensional radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameter -λ. Moreover, it is shown that the law of the conditioned process associated with the left eigenfunction of the process conditioned on first hitting 0 is induced by a one-parameter diffusion.

Mesoscale Numerical Study of Quasi-Stationary Convective System over Jeddah in November 2009

25 November 2009 is an unforgettable day for the people in Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). On that day, Jeddah turned into a disaster zone following a short heavy rainfall event that triggered flash floods leaving 122 fatalities and considerable losses. Numerical experiments using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric research mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) have been performed to investigate the event. It was caused by a short quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system that developed over Jeddah and lasted for about 8 hours. Rainfall totals computed by the model exceeded 400 mmin some localities in the southern part of Jeddah city and to the north of Jeddah in Thuwal city. The limited available observed rainfall totals, atKingAbdulAzizInternationalAirportand wadiQaws rain gauges, and Jeddah’s weather radar observations corroborates the ability of the model to reproduce the spatial and temporal characteristics of the rainfall event. A synoptic environment characterized by warmRed Seasurface temperatures and high humidity in the low levels of the troposphere. A stationary anticyclone centered over the southeast of theArabian Peninsulaconcentrated the water vapour flow to a narrow passage over Jeddah. Simulation results suggested that the development of a mesolow by latent heat release, as well as cyclogenesis induced by Al Hejaz escarpments, could have played an important role in enhancing the event by providing low-level convergence and enhanced upslope winds, and upper level atmospheric instability.

Formation of a Quasi-Stationary Discharge in the Explosive-Emission Electron Sources

Formation of a quasi-stationary discharge or quasi-stationary emission mode in the explosive-emission electron sources is related to the current limitation resulting from the emissive ability saturation of cathode plasma with its expansion. The paper shows that in the process of the discharge current stabilization in the explosive-emission sources with the point- or blade-type emitters the essential role belongs to the electron beam space charge. Availability of the space charge results in limitation of the current growth velocity at the initial discharge phase and, hence, restricts the emissive ability of the cathode plasma and contributes to its saturation. In the vacuum diodes with multiemitter cathodes, the space charge availability increases the cathode operation stability and can provide obtaining of quasi-stationary beam current values or close to them resulting in formation of a plasma emission surface at the cathode close to the continuous one.

Discharge Stabilization and Obtaining of Quasi-Stationary Electron Beams in Explosive-Emission Sources

Quasistationary discharge mode setting in the explosive-emission sources is related to the saturation of the cathode plasma emissive ability resulting in the decrease of the velocity of plasma propagation into the interelectrode gap. It was shoran previously that the electron beam space charge providing the current rise slowing-down is of great importance in the process of the discharge mode stabilization. The paper considers a possibility of the discharge protraction at the expense of decrease of the ion charge order in the plasma composition and application of the directed plasma flows. The data concerning obtainig of micro- and millisecond electron beams in the explosive-emission sources are presented as well.

The Freezing Precipitation over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River during February-March 2009

In this paper, the authors analyze the quasistationary fronts, surface conditions, and atmospheric stratification processes associated with a freezing precipitation event over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially in the Dabie mountain during February-March 2009. The long duration of freezing precipitation was primarily caused by stationary and anomalous synoptic weather patterns, such as a blocking high pressure in the northern branch and a trough in the southern branch of the westerlies, which resulted in the encounter cold air from northern China and warm moisture from the south. The east-west-oriented, quasi-stationary front （or shear line） found in central China was mostly responsible for producing the precipitation. The warm layer and nearsurface frozen layer were located in the lower troposphere along the front zone. Although the warm layer （〉 0℃） existed along the whole front, a surface temperature less than 0℃ appeared only over the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River, especially in the Dabie mountain. Therefore, the surface temperature was the main influencing factor, as the freezing precipitation only happened over the Dabie mountain.

The Propagation and Transport Effect of Planetary Waves in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Based on the transformed Eulerian-mean equations, the dynamics of planetary waves are discussed. Both observations and simulations indicate that in the Northern Hemisphere winter there are two waveguides for the meridional propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves. One is the high latitude waveguide, and the other is the low latitude waveguide. These results are in good agreement with theoretical analysis. Moreover, the convergence of EP flux indicates that the stratospheric sudden warming is the result of anomalous planetary wave propagation along the high latitude waveguide and its interaction with mean flows. The tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) winds, which represent one significant variation of zonal flow in the lower stratosphere at low latitudes, can influence the low latitude waveguide of planetary wave propagation. Our results of the wave-mean flow coupled model show that these tropical winds can also modulate the high latitude waveguide significantly in the case of wave-mean flow interaction.The transport effect of planetary waves on ozone is also analyzed. The residual mean circulation forced by planetary waves indicates that there is strong transport circulation for the dissipative planetary waves. Under the forcing of northward eddy heat transport, a positive transport circulation can result which rises at low latitudes and sinks at high latitudes. At the same time, the modification of planetary wave propagation by the equatorial QBO winds is shown to have an important impact on the transport circulation. The model results indicate that the meridional transport is amplified during the easterly phase of the QBO. This mechanism may explain the interannual variability of ozone in the stratosphere at high latitudes.

Maintenance and development of the Ural high and its contribution to severe cold wave activities in winter 2020/21

Two successive severe cold waves invaded eastern China from the end of 2020 to early 2021,leading to an extensive,severe,and persistent drop in temperature.The paper investigates the features and formation mechanisms of the two cold waves.The main results are as follows:(1)An anticlockwise turning of the transverse trough was observed in both cold waves.However,a broad ridge was maintained over the Ural area from mid-December 2020 till mid-January 2021.No breakdown or discontinuous westward shift of the blocking high was observed,which is different from typical cold waves in eastern Asia.(2)The maintenance and strengthening of northerly winds in front of the Ural high led to an increase in baroclinicity in-situ.In the downstream region,the gradient of the geopotential height contour in the south of the transverse trough rapidly increased and the advection of cold temperature consistently enhanced and advanced southwards.This in turn caused the intensification and southward expansion of the Siberian high.(3)Energy propagation of the quasi-stationary wave was a reason for the development and persistence of the Ural blocking.Prior to the occurrence of the two cold waves,the energy of the low-frequency stationary wave originating from near 0°E(or even to the west)propagated eastwards,which helped the Ural ridge intensify and maintain.Meanwhile,it also contributed to the development of the trough downstream of the ridge and resulted in the anticlockwise turning of the transverse trough,providing a favorable condition for the southward outbreak of cold air.

Response of extreme precipitation to increasing extratropical cyclonic vortex frequency

Since the 2000 s,extratropical extremes have been more frequent,which are closely related to anomalies of planetary-scale and synoptic-scale systems.This study focuses on a key synoptic system,the extratropical cyclonic vortex(ECV)over land,to investigate its relations with extreme precipitation.It was found that ECVs have been more active post-2000,which has induced more extreme precipitation,and such variation is projected to persist along with increasing temperature within 1.5℃of global warming.An enhanced quasi-stationary vortex(QSV)primarily contributes to the ECV,rather than inactive synoptic-scale transient eddies(STEs).Inactive STEs respond to a decline in baroclinicity due to the tendency of the homogeneous temperature gradient.However,such conditions are helpful to widening the westerly jet belt,favoring strong dynamic processes of quasi-resonant amplification and interaction of STEs with the quasi-stationary wave,and the result favors an increasing frequency and persistence of QSVs,contributing to extreme precipitation.

Activities of Low-Frequency Waves in the Tropical Atmosphere and ENSO

ENSO, particularly the occurrence of ENSO is still an important research object in climatic variation. Using the ECMWF data, the relationship between ENSO and the activities of low-frequency waves in the tropical atmosphere is analyzed in this paper. It is shown that the occurrence of ENSO is closely related to the intraseasonal oscillation and the quasi-stationary waves (the period >90 days) in the tropical atmosphere. Associated with the occurrence of El Nino event, the kinetic energy of low-frequency waves has obvious variation: the kinetic energy of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation (ISO) decreases abruptly and the kinetic energy of quasi-stationary waves increases abruptly. Moreover, the ISO and quasi-stationary waves propagate eastward clearly corresponding to El Nino; but they clearly propagate westward in La Nina cases.

The Propagation of Disturbances Excited by Low-Frequency Oscillations in the Tropics

The propagation of disturbances excited by low-frequency oscillations in the tropics is investigated by applying the theory of wave packet dynamics. For simplicity, a linearized barotropic model is adopted and the zonal circulation is taken as basic current. Suppose that the disturbances or waves are superimposed on jet-like westerly basic cur-rent and excited by the forcing in the tropics. We have (1) only the eastward propagating (m>0, n>0 and σ>0) low-frequency disturbances and the stationary (σ = 0) waves can propagate into the middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere; the others, such as the westward propagating low-frequency wave (m>0, n<0, σ<0) and the high-frequency waves, are restricted only in the vicinity of source region; (2) a stationary wave (σ = 0) reaches a given latitude even more quickly than some low-frequency ones (σ>0) due to the fact that the group velocity of stationary wave is larger; (3) there is a whole wave train excited by the forcing in the tropics and extended into the middle and high latitudes, if the amplitude of the source is independent on time, especially, the low-frequency wave (σ > 0) is of travelling type propagating along the ray; (4) if the source lasts only for an interval of time, namely, its amplitude also has the character of low-frequency oscillation, the excited wave train is not always a whole one, but is restricted in the vicinity of source region in the beginning, extended from the source region to the middle and high latitudes in its saturated stage, after that it gradually becomes weaker and weaker and is detectable only in some area at high latitude, and eventually disappears. Undoubtedly, case (4) is closer to the reality, even though case (3) gives a more impressive wavy pattern.

Reexamining China＇s Demographic Transition and Age Structure

This paper discusses the shortcomings of Western theories on demographic transition by comparing transitions in demographic structure for Europe and China. This paper further proposes several criteria for judging the direction of demographic transition and whether or not it has finished. Apart from establishing new theories of demographic transition and the trasition of demographic structure, this paper differentiates the concepts of ＂relative surplus population＂ and ＂relative suitable population,＂ and ＂relative insufficient population＂ and identifies key demographic differences along the way. In doing so, this paper argues that China＇s demographic strueture is undergoing a process of rebalancing.

Quasi-stationary planetary wave-mean flow interactions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and their responses to ENSO events

Based on the ERA-40 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the output of ECHAM5/MPI-OM, this study investigated the interactions between the quasi-stationary planetary wave （SPW） and mean flow, and their responses to E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events in the northern hemispheric stratosphere. Results show that the activity of SPW is the strongest in winter, when the SPW propagates along the polar waveguide into the stratosphere and along the low-latitude waveguide to the subtropical tropopause. The analysis of three dimensional SPW structure indicates that the main sources of SPW activity are located over the Eurasian continent and the North Pacific north of 45°N. On the one hand, the two waveguides of the SPW reflect the influence of mean flow on the propagation of the SPW. On the other hand, the upward propagating SPW can interact with the stratospheric mean flow, leading to deceleration of the zonal mean westerly. Furthermore, the SPW exhibits clear responses to ENSO events. During E1 Nifio winters, the SPW in the strat- osphere tends to propagate more upward and poleward. Its interactions with mean flow can induce a dipole pattern in zonal mean zonal winds, with accelerated westerly winds at low-middle latitudes and decelerated westerly winds at high latitudes. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM model reproduces the climatology of the SPW well. Although the simulated SPW is slightly weaker than the observations in the stratosphere, the model＇s performance has significant improvements compared with other GCMs used in previous studies. However, there are still some problems in the responses of the SPW to ENSO in the model. Although the model reproduces the responses of both the amplitude and the SPW-mean flow interactions to ENSO well in the troposphere, the stratospheric responses are quite weak. Therefore, further studies are needed to improve the simulation of the stratospheric atmospheric circulation and related dynamical processes.

Spectral analysis of quasi-stationary sea surface topography from GRACE mission

During the last two decades satellite altimetry has offered an abundance of meas-urements of the sea surface resulting in the improvement of global mean sea surface height (MSSH) and marine geoid determination. On the other hand, with the launching of new genera-tion gravity satellites, some high accuracy long-wavelength gravity models are available. These breakthroughs give us a great opportunity for new estimation of quasi-stationary sea surface topography (QSST). In this paper, the new gravity model GGM01C derived from GRACE mission is briefly presented, and a new global high precision and high-resolution QSST is determined based on the GGM01C model and the global MSSH. The spectral features of the QSST esti-mated by GGM01C and EGM96 gravity model to degree/order 200 are discussed by spectral analysis. As a result, the QSST is mainly composed of long waves, medium waves partially and short waves scarcely, its power spectral structures are different between the zonal direction and the meridional direction, there are great differences between the two models, which maybe ex-plain why the ocean currents derived from the two gravity models by Tapley show different pat-terns.

Quasi-stationary Stefan problem as limit case of Mullins-Sekerka problem

The existence of a local classical solution to the Mullins-Sekerka problem and the convergence to the two-phase quasi-stationary Stefan problem are proved when surface tension approaches zero. This convergence gives a proof of the existence of a local classical solution of quasi-stationary Stefan problem. The methods work in all dimensions.

Reanalysis of the 3D quasi-stationary grain size distribution based on Hillert's grain growth rate equation

Based on Hillert's 3D grain growth rate equation, the grain growth continuity equation was solved. The results show that there are an infinite number of 3D quasi-stationary grain size distributions. This conclusion has gained strong supports from results of different computer simulations reported in the literature.