Based on daily precipitation data supplied by the Chinese meteorological administration,hourly reanalysis datasets provided by the ECMWF and daily outgoing long wave radiation supplied by the NOAA,the evolution regula...Based on daily precipitation data supplied by the Chinese meteorological administration,hourly reanalysis datasets provided by the ECMWF and daily outgoing long wave radiation supplied by the NOAA,the evolution regularity of continuous heavy precipitation over Southern China(SC)from April to June in 1979-2020 was systematically analyzed.The interaction between specific humidity and circulation field at the background-scale,the intra-seasonal-scale and the synoptic-scale,and its influence on persistent heavy precipitation over the SC during the April-June rainy season were quantitatively diagnosed and analyzed.The results are as follows.Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the SC during the April-June rainy season occur frequently from mid-May to mid-and late-June,exhibiting significant intra-seasonal oscillation(10-30-day)features.Vertically integrated moisture flux convergence(VIMFC)can well represent the variation of the PHREs.A multiscale quantitative diagnosis of the VIMFC shows that the pre-summer PHREs over the SC are mainly affected by the background water vapor(greater than 30 days),intraseasonal circulation disturbance(10-30-day)and background circulation(greater than 30 days),and water vapor convergences are the main factor.The SC is under the control of a warm and humid background and a strong intraseasonal cyclonic circulation,with strong convergence and ascending movements and abundant water vapor conditions during the period of the PHREs.Meanwhile,the westward inter-seasonal oscillation of tropical atmosphere keeps the precipitation system over the SC for several consecutive days,eventually leading to the occurrence,development and persistence of heavy precipitation.展开更多
A new analog error correction （AEC） scheme based on the moving North Pacific index （MNPI） is designed in this study. This scheme shows obvious improvement in the prediction skill of the operational coupled general...A new analog error correction （AEC） scheme based on the moving North Pacific index （MNPI） is designed in this study. This scheme shows obvious improvement in the prediction skill of the operational coupled general circulation model （CGCM） of the National Climate Center of China for the rainy season rainfall （RSR） anomaly pattern correlation coefficient （ACC） over the mid-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR）. A comparative analysis indicates that the effectiveness of the new scheme using the MNPI is better than the system error correction scheme using the North Pacific index （NPI）. A Euclidean distance- weighted mean rather than a traditional arithmetic mean, is applied to the integration of the analog year＇s prediction error fields. By using the MNPI AEC scheme, independent sample hindcasts of RSR during the period 2003-2009 are then evaluated. The results show that the new scheme exhibited a higher forecast skill during 2003-2009, with an average ACC of 0.47; while the ACC for the NPI case was only 0.19. Furthermore, the forecast skill of the RSR over the MLRYR is examined. In the MNPI case, empirical orthogonal function （EOF） was used in the degree compression of the prediction error fields from the CCCM, whereas the AEC scheme was applied only to its first several EOF components for which the accumulative explained variance accounted for 80% of the total variance. This further improved the ACC of the independent sample hindcasts to 0.55 during the 7-yr period.展开更多
通过野外人工模拟降雨试验,开展玉米不同生长期紫色土坡耕地细沟侵蚀特征研究,并分析玉米叶面积、雨强对细沟侵蚀过程的影响。结果表明:随玉米生长期推进,坡面产流时间、跌坎及细沟出现时间总体呈先增加后减少的趋势。苗期、拔节期跌坎...通过野外人工模拟降雨试验,开展玉米不同生长期紫色土坡耕地细沟侵蚀特征研究,并分析玉米叶面积、雨强对细沟侵蚀过程的影响。结果表明:随玉米生长期推进,坡面产流时间、跌坎及细沟出现时间总体呈先增加后减少的趋势。苗期、拔节期跌坎与细沟出现的平均间隔时间分别为10′59″和15′30″,抽雄期、成熟期跌坎与细沟出现的平均间隔时间分别为20′16″和18′58″,玉米苗期坡耕地更易产生细沟侵蚀。苗期细沟形态发育完整,2.0 mm min-1雨强条件下,苗期最长细沟的长、宽、深分别为77.62、6.25和4.04 cm。随玉米生长期推进,细沟侵蚀阶段产流量表现为苗期>拔节期>成熟期>抽雄期,苗期和抽雄期细沟侵蚀阶段产流量分别占玉米季径流总量的30.97%和19.01%,玉米各生长期细沟侵蚀阶段产流率均随降雨时间的推移呈波动上升。细沟侵蚀阶段产沙量表现为苗期>拔节期>成熟期>抽雄期,苗期细沟侵蚀阶段产沙量显著高于其他生长期,玉米各生长期细沟侵蚀产沙率均随降雨时间呈波动变化。玉米季坡耕地细沟侵蚀产流量与雨强呈极显著正相关,产沙量与玉米叶面积指数呈显著负相关,产流率、产沙率与叶面积指数和雨强的回归方程均达极显著水平。展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42088101)。
文摘Based on daily precipitation data supplied by the Chinese meteorological administration,hourly reanalysis datasets provided by the ECMWF and daily outgoing long wave radiation supplied by the NOAA,the evolution regularity of continuous heavy precipitation over Southern China(SC)from April to June in 1979-2020 was systematically analyzed.The interaction between specific humidity and circulation field at the background-scale,the intra-seasonal-scale and the synoptic-scale,and its influence on persistent heavy precipitation over the SC during the April-June rainy season were quantitatively diagnosed and analyzed.The results are as follows.Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the SC during the April-June rainy season occur frequently from mid-May to mid-and late-June,exhibiting significant intra-seasonal oscillation(10-30-day)features.Vertically integrated moisture flux convergence(VIMFC)can well represent the variation of the PHREs.A multiscale quantitative diagnosis of the VIMFC shows that the pre-summer PHREs over the SC are mainly affected by the background water vapor(greater than 30 days),intraseasonal circulation disturbance(10-30-day)and background circulation(greater than 30 days),and water vapor convergences are the main factor.The SC is under the control of a warm and humid background and a strong intraseasonal cyclonic circulation,with strong convergence and ascending movements and abundant water vapor conditions during the period of the PHREs.Meanwhile,the westward inter-seasonal oscillation of tropical atmosphere keeps the precipitation system over the SC for several consecutive days,eventually leading to the occurrence,development and persistence of heavy precipitation.
基金Supported by the National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430204)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41305100 and 41105055)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201306021)
文摘A new analog error correction （AEC） scheme based on the moving North Pacific index （MNPI） is designed in this study. This scheme shows obvious improvement in the prediction skill of the operational coupled general circulation model （CGCM） of the National Climate Center of China for the rainy season rainfall （RSR） anomaly pattern correlation coefficient （ACC） over the mid-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR）. A comparative analysis indicates that the effectiveness of the new scheme using the MNPI is better than the system error correction scheme using the North Pacific index （NPI）. A Euclidean distance- weighted mean rather than a traditional arithmetic mean, is applied to the integration of the analog year＇s prediction error fields. By using the MNPI AEC scheme, independent sample hindcasts of RSR during the period 2003-2009 are then evaluated. The results show that the new scheme exhibited a higher forecast skill during 2003-2009, with an average ACC of 0.47; while the ACC for the NPI case was only 0.19. Furthermore, the forecast skill of the RSR over the MLRYR is examined. In the MNPI case, empirical orthogonal function （EOF） was used in the degree compression of the prediction error fields from the CCCM, whereas the AEC scheme was applied only to its first several EOF components for which the accumulative explained variance accounted for 80% of the total variance. This further improved the ACC of the independent sample hindcasts to 0.55 during the 7-yr period.
文摘通过野外人工模拟降雨试验,开展玉米不同生长期紫色土坡耕地细沟侵蚀特征研究,并分析玉米叶面积、雨强对细沟侵蚀过程的影响。结果表明:随玉米生长期推进,坡面产流时间、跌坎及细沟出现时间总体呈先增加后减少的趋势。苗期、拔节期跌坎与细沟出现的平均间隔时间分别为10′59″和15′30″,抽雄期、成熟期跌坎与细沟出现的平均间隔时间分别为20′16″和18′58″,玉米苗期坡耕地更易产生细沟侵蚀。苗期细沟形态发育完整,2.0 mm min-1雨强条件下,苗期最长细沟的长、宽、深分别为77.62、6.25和4.04 cm。随玉米生长期推进,细沟侵蚀阶段产流量表现为苗期>拔节期>成熟期>抽雄期,苗期和抽雄期细沟侵蚀阶段产流量分别占玉米季径流总量的30.97%和19.01%,玉米各生长期细沟侵蚀阶段产流率均随降雨时间的推移呈波动上升。细沟侵蚀阶段产沙量表现为苗期>拔节期>成熟期>抽雄期,苗期细沟侵蚀阶段产沙量显著高于其他生长期,玉米各生长期细沟侵蚀产沙率均随降雨时间呈波动变化。玉米季坡耕地细沟侵蚀产流量与雨强呈极显著正相关,产沙量与玉米叶面积指数呈显著负相关,产流率、产沙率与叶面积指数和雨强的回归方程均达极显著水平。
