Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL （BTOPMC）, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model＇s applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin＇anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution （SCE-UA） method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model＇s applicability.

Rainfall-runoff modeling for storm events in a coastal forest catchmen t using neural networks

The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both tempor al and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using th e artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed for simula ting the runoff in storm events. The study uses the data from a coa stal forest catchment located in Seto Inland Sea, Japan. This article studies the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecast obta ined by ANN time-series analysis techniques and using antecedent rainfa ll depths and stream flow as the input information. The verification results from the proposed model indicate that the approach of ANN rai nfall-runoff model presented in this paper shows a reasonable agreement in rainfall-runoff modeling with high accuracy.

Artificial Neural Networks for Event Based Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been successfully used in many hydrological studies especially the rainfall-runoff modeling using continuous data. The present study examines its applicability to model the event-based rainfall-runoff process. A case study has been done for Ajay river basin to develop event-based rainfall-runoff model for the basin to simulate the hourly runoff at Sarath gauging site. The results demonstrate that ANN models are able to provide a good representation of an event-based rainfall-runoff process. The two important parameters, when predicting a flood hydrograph, are the magnitude of the peak discharge and the time to peak discharge. The developed ANN models have been able to predict this information with great accuracy. This shows that ANNs can be very efficient in modeling an event-based rainfall-runoff process for determining the peak discharge and time to the peak discharge very accurately. This is important in water resources design and management applications, where peak discharge and time to peak discharge are important input

Evaluating the Performance of HEC-HMS and SWAT Hydrological Models in Simulating the Rainfall-Runoff Process for Data Scarce Region of Ethiopian Rift Valley Lake Basin

A number of physically-based and distributed watershed models have been developed to model the hydrology of the watershed. For a specific watershed, selecting the most suitable hydrological model is necessary to obtain good simulated results. In this study, two hydrologic models, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrological Engineering Centre-The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), were applied to predict streamflow in Katar River basin, Ethiopia. The performances of these two models were compared in order to select the right model for the study basin. Both models were calibrated and validated with stream flow data of 11 years (1990-2000) and 7 years (2001-2007) respectively. Nash-Sutcliffe Error (NSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) were used to evaluate efficiency of the models. The results of calibration and validation indicated that, for river basin Katar, both models could simulate fairly well the streamflow. SWAT gave the model performance with the R2 > 0.78 and NSE > 0.67;and the HEC-HMS model provided the model performance with the R2 > 0.87 and NSE > 0.73. Hence, the simulated streamflow given by the HEC-HMS model is more satisfactory than that provided by the SWAT model.

Rainfall-Runoff Modeling and Hydrological Responses to the Projected Climate Change for Upper Baro Basin, Ethiopia

This paper presents the results of Rainfall-Runoff modeling and simulation of hydrological responses under changing climate using HEC-HMS model. The basin spatial data was processed by HEC-GeoHMS and imported to HEC-HMS. The calibration and validation of the HEC-HMS model was done using the observed hydrometeorological data (1989-2018) and HEC-GeoHMS output data. The goodness-of-fit of the model was measured using three performance indices: Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) = 0.8, Coefficient of Determination (R2) = 0.8, and Percent Difference (D) = 0.03, with values showing very good performance of the model. Finally, the optimized HEC-HMS model has been applied to simulate the hydrological responses of Upper Baro Basin to the projected climate change for mid-term (2040s) and long-term (2090s) A1B emission scenarios. The simulation results have shown a mean annual percent decrease of 3.6 and an increase of 8.1 for Baro River flow in the 2040s and 2090s scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period (2000s). A pronounced flow variation is rather observed on a seasonal basis, reaching a reduction of 50% in spring and an increase of 50% in autumn for both mid-term and long-term scenarios with respect to the base period. Generally, the rainfall-runoff model is developed to solve, in a complementary way, the two main problems in water resources management: the lack of gauged sites and future hydrological response to climate change data of the basin and the region in general. The study results imply that seasonal and time variation in the hydrologic cycle would most likely cause hydrologic extremes. And hence, the developed model and output data are of paramount importance for adaptive strategies and sustainable water resources development in the basin.

Using SWAT Model and Field Data to Determine Potential of NASA-POWER Data for Modelling Rainfall-Runoff in Incalaue River Basin

Incalaue is a tributary of Lugenda River in NSR (Niassa Special Reserve) in North-Eastern Mozambique. NSR is a data-poor remote area and there is a need for rainfall-runoff data to inform decisions on water resources management, and scientific methods are needed for this wide expanse of land. This study assessed the potential of a combination of NASA-POWER (National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) remotely sensed rainfall data and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) soil and land use/cover data for modelling rainfall-runoff in Incalaue river basin. DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of 1:250,000 scale and a grid resolution of 30 m × 30 m downloaded from USGS (the United States Geological Survey) website;clipped river basin FAO digital soil and land use/cover maps;and field-collected data were used. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to assess rainfall -runoff data generated using the NASA-POWER dataset and gauged rainfall and river flow data collected during fieldwork. FAO soil and land use/cover datasets which are globally available and widely used in the region were used for comparison with soil data collected during fieldwork. Field collected data showed that soil in the area is predominantly sandy loam and only sand content and bulk density were uniformly distributed across the soil samples. SWAT model showed a good rainfall-runoff relationship using NASA-POWER data for the area (R2 = 0.7749) for the studied period (2019-2021). There was an equally strong rainfall-runoff relationship for gauged data (R2 = 0.8131). There were uniform trends for the rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity in NASA-POWER meteorological data. Timing of peaks and lows in rainfall and river flow observed in the field and modelled were confirmed by residents as the trend in the area. This approach was used because there was no historical rainfall and river flow data since the river basin is ungauged for hydrologic data. The study showed that NASA-POWER data has the potential for use for modelling the rainfall-runoff in the basin. The difference in rainfall-runoff relationship with field-collected data could be because of landscape characteristics or topsoil layer not catered for in the FAO soil data.

Effects of land-use pattern change on rainfall-runoff and runoff-sediment relations:a case study in Zichang watershed of the Loess Plateau of China

The purpose of this article is to identify the effect of land use pattern on rainfall runoff and runoff sediment relations in Zichang Watershed of the Loess Plateau. From 1986 to 1997, many farmlands changed into grassland or woodland, especially the farmland in steep slope positions or far away from the river. The change of land use pattern altered the rainfall runoff and runoff sediment relationships, and led to higher slope of trend curves(STCs) of annual rainfall runoff mass curve and runoff sediment mass curve in 1990s than that in 1980s. It is implied that more soil and water loss yielded in 1990s. In order to reduce soil loss, more attentions should be paid to land use pattern and some grass or other herbaceous filter strips should be built along rivers.

Impacts of water quality variation and rainfall runoff on Jinpen Reservoir,in Northwest China

The seasonal variation characteristics of the water quality of the Jinpen Reservoir and the impacts of rainfall runoff on the reservoir were investigated. Water quality monitoring results indicated that, during the stable stratification period, the maximum concentrations of total ni- trogen, total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, iron ion, and manganese ion in the water at the reservoir bottom on September 6 reached 2.5 mg/L, 0.12 mg/L, 0.58 mg/L, 3.2 mg/L, 0.97 mg/L, and 0.32 rag/L, respectively. Only heavy storm runoff can affect the main reservoir and cause the water quality to seriously deteriorate. During heavy storms, the stratification of the reservoir was destroyed, and the reservoir water quality consequently deteriorated due to the high-turbidity particulate phosphorus and organic matter in runoff. The turbidity and concentrations of total phosphorus and total organic carbon in the main reservoir increased to 265 NTU, 0.224 mg/L, and 3.9 mg/L, respectively. Potential methods of dealing with the water problems in the Jinpen Reservoir are proposed. Both in stratification and in storm periods, the use of measures such as adjusting intake height, storing clean water, and releasing turbid flow can be helpful to safeguarding the quality of water supplied to the water treatment plants.

Stability analysis of unsaturated soil slope during rainfall infiltration using coupled liquid-gas-solid three-phase model

Generally, most soil slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration, a process that involves interactions between the liquid phase, gas phase,and solid skeleton in an unsaturated soil slope. In this study, a loosely coupled liquid-gas-solid three-phase model, linking two numerical codes,TOUGH2/EOS3, which is used for water-air two-phase flow analysis, and FLAC^(3D), which is used for mechanical analysis, was established. The model was validated through a documented water drainage experiment over a sandy column and a comparison of the results with measured data and simulated results from other researchers. The proposed model was used to investigate the features of water-air two-phase flow and stress fields in an unsaturated soil slope during rainfall infiltration. The slope stability analysis was then performed based on the simulated water-air two-phase seepage and stress fields on a given slip surface. The results show that the safety factor for the given slip surface decreases first, then increases, and later decreases until the rainfall stops. Subsequently, a sudden rise occurs. After that, the safety factor decreases continually and reaches its lowest value, and then increases slowly to a steady value. The lowest value does not occur when the rainfall stops, indicating a delayed effect of the safety factor. The variations of the safety factor for the given slip surface are therefore caused by a combination of pore-air pressure, matric suction, normal stress, and net normal stress.

Effects of slope gradient on runoff from bare-fallow purple soil in China under natural rainfall conditions

Purple soil is highly susceptible for overland flow and surface erosion, therefore understanding surface runoff and soil erosion processes in the purple soil region are important to mitigate flooding and erosion hazards. Slope angle is an important parameter that affects the magnitude of runoff and thus surface erosion in hilly landscapes or bare land area. However, the effect of slope on runoff generation remains unclear in many different soils including Chinese purple soil. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between different slope gradients and surface runoff for bare-fallow purple soil, using 5 m × 1.5 m experimental plots under natural rainfall conditions. Four experimental plots(10°, 16°, 20° and 26°) were established in theYanting Agro-ecological Experimental Station of Chinese Academy of Science in central Sichuan Basin. The plot was equipped with water storage tank to monitor water level change. Field monitoring from July 1 to October 31, 2012 observed 42 rainfall events which produced surface runoff from the experimental plots. These water level changes were converted to runoff. The representative eight rainfall events were selected for further analysis, the relationship between slope and runoff coefficient were determined using ANOVA, F-test, and z-score analysis. The results indicated a strong correlation between rainfall and runoff in cumulative amount basis. The mean value of the measured runoff coefficient for four experimental plots was around 0.1. However, no statistically significant relationship was found between slope and runoff coefficient. We reviewed the relationship between slope and runoff in many previous studiesand calculated z-score to compare with our experimental results. The results of z-score analysis indicated that both positive and negative effects of slope on runoff coefficient were obtained, however a moderate gradient(16°-20° in this study) could be a threshold of runoff generation for many different soils including the Chinese purple soil.

Numerical Simulations of Intense Meiyu Rainfall in 1991 over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Valleys by a Regional Climate Model with p-σ Incorporated Coordinate System

Based on the primitive equation model with p- σ incorporated coordinate system originally developed by Qian et al., a one-way nested fine mesh limited area model is developed. This model is nested with ECMWF T42 data to simulate the extra-intensive rainfall event occurring in the Changjiang and Huaihe River valleys in summer of 1991. The results show that the model has certain capacity to fairly reproduce the regional distribution and the movement of the main rainfall belts. Therefore it can be used as a regional climate model to simulate and predict the short-range regional climate changes.

Phosphorus transport with runoff of simulated rainfall from purple-soil cropland of different surface conditions

We investigated the patterns of phosphorus transport from purple-soil cropland of 5° and 10° slopes with bare and vegetated surfaces,respectively.Each type of land was tested under a simulated moderate rainfall of 0.33 mm/min,a downfall of 0.90 mm/min,and a rainstorm of 1.86 mm/min.Runoff dynamics and changes in the export amount of phosphorus are influenced by the rainfall intensity,the slope and surface conditions of cropland.The vegetation diverts rain water from the surface into soil and helps the formation of a subsurface runoff,but has little influence on runoff process at the same sloping degree.Vegetated soil has a smaller phosphorous loss,particularly much less in the particulate form.A heavier rainfall flushes away more phosphorous.Rainwater percolating soil carries more dissolved phosphorous than particulate phosphorous.Understanding the patterns of phosphorous transport under various conditions from purple soil in the middle of Sichuan basin is helpful for developing countermeasures against non-point-source pollution resulting in the eutrophication of water bodies in this region that could,if not controlled properly,deteriorate the water quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir.

Coupled hydro-mechanical analysis of slope under rainfall using modified elasto-plastic model for unsaturated soils

Two modifications for the basic Barcelona model(BBM) are present. One is the replacement of the net stress by the average skeleton stress in unsaturated soil modeling, and the other is the adoption of an expression for the load-collapse(LC) yield surface that can match flexibly the normal compression lines at different suctions. The predictions of the modified BBM for the controlled-suction triaxial test on the unsaturated compacted clay are presented and compared with the experimental results. A good agreement between the predicted and experimental results demonstrates the reasonability of the modified BBM. On this basis, the coupled processes of groundwater flow and soil deformation in a homogeneous soil slope under a long heavy rainfall are simulated with the proposed elasto-plastic model. The numerical results reveal that the failure of a slope under rainfall infiltration is due to both the reduction of soil suction and the significant rise in groundwater table. The evolution of the displacements is greatly related to the change of suction. The maximum collapse deformation happens near the surface of slope where infiltrated rainwater can quickly reach. The results may provide a helpful reference for hazard assessment and control of rainfall-induced landslides.

Soil detachment and transport under the combined action of rainfall and runoff energy on shallow overland flow

Rainfall and runoff energy results in soil erosion. This paper presents new the concepts of rainfall and runoff energy and analyzes the relationship of rainfall energy and runoff energy with sediment transport based on the conversion theory of kinetic and potential energy using artificial rainfall and mechanical calculation. The results show that the ratio of sediment detachment in sloping fallow overland flow increases with the slope gradient,rainfall energy and runoff energy, while the sediment detachment ratio under raindrop impact are significantly higher than those under no raindrop impact. The sediment concentration increases with the slope gradient and rainfall energy; when the slope gradient and rainfall energy are constant, the sediment concentration decreases as the runoff energy increases. Rainfall disturbance coefficients have a logarithmic correlation with the rate of rainfall energy and runoff energy. On the same slope gradient,when the rainfall energy is constant, the disturbance coefficient decreases as the runoff energy increases,while when the runoff energy is constant, the disturbance coefficient increases as the rainfall energyincreases. Rainfall energy results in sediment detachment, and runoff energy is the transportation for erosion sediment. This showed that rainfall energy and runoff energy are important in the sediment detachment and transportation of shallow overland flow.

Comparison of satellite-estimated and model-forecasted rainfall data during a deadly debris-flow event in Zhouqu, Northwest China

The data of several rainfall products, including those estimated from satellite measurements and those forecasted via numerical weather modeling, for a severe debris-flow event in Zhouqu, Northwest China, are compared and analyzed in this paper. The satellite products, including CPC MORPHing technique（CMORPH）, TMPA-RT, and PERSIANN are all near-real-time retrieved with high temporal and spatial resolutions. The numerical weather model used in this paper for precipitation forecasting is WRF. The results show that all three satellite products can basically reproduce the rainfall pattern, distribution, timing, scale, and extreme values of the event, compared with gauge data. Their temporal and spatial correlation coefficients with gauge data are as high as about 0.6, which is statistically significant at 0.01 level. The performance of the forecasted results modeled with different spatial resolutions are not as good as the satellite-estimated results, although their correlation coefficients are still statistically significant at 0.05 level. From the total rainfall and extreme value time series for the domain, it is clear that, from the grid-to-grid perspective, the passive microwave-based CMORPH and TRMM products are more accurate than the infrared-based PERSIANN, while PERSIANN performs very well from the general point of view, especially when considering the whole domain or the whole convective precipitation system. The forecasted data — especially the highest resolution model domain data — are able to represent the total or mean precipitation very well in the research domain, while for extreme values the errors are large. This study suggests that satellite-retrieved and model-forecasted rainfall data are a useful complement to gauge data, especially for areas without gauge stations and areas not covered by weather radars.

Grey Relational Analysis on the Effects of Rainfall Factors on Runoff and Sediment in the Sloping Farmland with Different Plants in the Central South of Shandong Province

[Objective] The aim was to study the main rainfall factors influencing runoff and sediment in the sloping farmland with different plants in the central south of Shandong Province.[Method] Through grey relational analysis,the effects of different rainfall factors on runoff and sediment with different plants in the central south of Shandong were studied.[Result] In the sloping farmland with different plants,the effects of rainfall factors on runoff and sediment weren’t consistent.Rainfall was the dominant influencing factor of runoff,but PI30 had the greatest influence on runoff in natural grassland.Meanwhile,rainfall intensity was the main influencing factor of sediment,but PI had the greatest influence on sediment in Astragalus adsurgens Pall.plot.The compound factor had the minimal influence on runoff and sediment in Arachis hypogaea plot and natural grassland.In A.adsurgens Pall.plot,rainfall intensity had the minimal impact on runoff,but the compound factor had the least effect on sediment.[Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical references for the comprehensive control of slope soil erosion,the optimum utilization and sustainable development of land.

Notes of Numerical Simulation of Summer Rainfall in China with a Regional Climate Model REMO

Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in China with a regional climate model. Domain sizes and running modes are major foci. The results reveal that the model in forecast mode driven by ＂perfect＂ boundaries could reasonably represent the inter-annual differences： heavy rainfall along the Yangtze River in 1998 and dry conditions in 1997. Model simulation in climate mode differs to a greater extent from observation than that in forecast mode. This may be due to the fact that in climate mode it departs further from the driving fields and relies more on internal model dynamical processes. A smaller domain in climate mode outperforms a larger one. Further development of model parameterizations including dynamic vegetation are encouraged in future studies.

Sediment Load in Runoff Under Laboratory and Field Simulated Rainfall

Soil erosion is one of the most important problems in the Loess Plateau of China affectingsustainable agriculture. Near Luoyang (Henan Province, China), field plots were constructed tomeasure soil erosion rates under conventional tillage practices using field-simulated rainfall.Field rainfall experiments were carried out to compare previous results from laboratoryrainfall simulations on the same soil for interrill conditions. Although in the laboratoryexperiments, a strong correlation was found between the stream power of the runoff water andthe unit sediment load, this sediment transport equation overestimated the field rainfallsimulation results. Another sediment transport equation derived by Nearing et al. for rillerosion was in better agreement with the results of the field experiments, although it alsooverestimated these values. The measured sediment load values during the field rainfallsimulations were also lower than those found during field experiments on the same soil but witha loosened surface layer. This difference indicates the importance of soil physical conditionof surfce like soil structure and aggregate size, which may contribute to the discrepancybetween the field and laboratory experiment results.

VERIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS FROM CMA AND JMA GLOBAL MODELS

The number of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean in 2009 is significantly less than the average (27.4). However, the number of landfall TC over China's Mainland and its associated rainfall is more than the average. This paper focuses on the performance of numerical weather prediction (NWP) of landfall TC precipitation over China in 2009. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models are compared. Although the schemes of physical processes, the data assimilation system and the dynamic frame are entirely different for the two models, the results of forecast verification are similar to each other for TC rainfall and track except for TC Goni. In this paper, a day with daily rainfall amount greater than 50 mm was selected as a storm rain day when there was a TC affecting the mainland. There are 32 storm rain days related to the landing of typhoons and tropical depressions. The rainfall forecast verification methods of National Meteorological Centre (NMC) of CMA are selected to verify the models' rainfall forecast. Observational precipitation analyses related to TCs in 2009 indicate a U-shape spatial distribution in China. It is found that the rain belt forecasted by the two models within 60 hours shows good agreement with observations, both in the location and the maximum rainfall center. Beyond 3 days, the forecasted rainfall belt shifts northward on average, and the rainfall amount of the model forecasts becomes under-predicted. The rainfall intensity of CMA model forecast is more reasonable than that of JMA model. For heavy rain, the JMA model made more missing forecasts. The TC rainfall is verified in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Hainan where rainfall amount related to TCs is relatively larger than in other regions. The results indicate that the model forecast for Guangdong and Guangxi is more skillful than that for Hainan. The rainfall forecast for Hainan remains difficult for the models because of insufficient observation data and special tropical ocean climate.

Full 2D Hydrodynamic Modelling of Rainfall-induced Flash Floods

Mountain catchments are prone to flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Enhanced understanding of the generation and evolution processes of flash floods is essential for effective flood risk management. However, traditional distributed hydrological models based on kinematic and diffusion wave approximations ignore certain physical mechanisms of flash floods and thus bear excessive uncertainty. Here a hydrodynamic model is presented for flash floods based on the full two-dimensional shallow water equations incorporating rainfall and infiltration. Laboratory experiments of overland flows were modelled to illustrate the capability of the model. Then the model was applied to resolve two observed flash floods of distinct magnitudes in the Lengkou catchment in Shanxi Province, China. The present model is shown to be able to reproduce the flood flows fairly well compared to the observed data. The spatial distribution of rainfall is shown to be crucial for the modelling of flash floods. Sensitivity analyses of the model parameters reveal that the stage and discharge hydrographs are more sensitive to the Manning roughness and initial water content in the catchment than to the Green-Ampt head. Most notably, as the flash flood augments due to heavier rainfall, the modelling results agree with observed data better, which clearly characterizes the paramount role of rainfall in dictating the floods. From practical perspectives, the proposed model is more appropriate for modelling large flash floods.