Random Fuzzy Chance-constrained Programming Based on Adaptive Chaos Quantum Honey Bee Algorithm and Robustness Analysis

This paper proposes an adaptive chaos quantum honey bee algorithm （CQHBA） for solving chance-constrained program- ming in random fuzzy environment based on random fuzzy simulations. Random fuzzy simulation is designed to estimate the chance of a random fuzzy event and the optimistic value to a random fuzzy variable. In CQHBA, each bee carries a group of quantum bits representing a solution. Chaos optimization searches space around the selected best-so-far food source. In the marriage process, random interferential discrete quantum crossover is done between selected drones and the queen. Gaussian quantum mutation is used to keep the diversity of whole population. New methods of computing quantum rotation angles are designed based on grads. A proof of con- vergence for CQHBA is developed and a theoretical analysis of the computational overhead for the algorithm is presented. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate its superiority in robustness and stability, efficiency of computational complexity, success rate, and accuracy of solution quality. CQHBA is manifested to be highly robust under various conditions and capable of handling most random fuzzy programmings with any parameter settings, variable initializations, system tolerance and confidence level, perturbations, and noises.

DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF FUZZY-STOCHASTIC TRUSS STRUCTURES BASED ON FUZZY FACTOR METHOD AND RANDOM FACTOR METHOD

A new fuzzy stochastic finite element method based on the fuzzy factor method and random factor method is given and the analysis of structural dynamic characteristic for fuzzy stochastic truss structures is presented. Considering the fuzzy randomness of the structural physical parameters and geometric dimensions simultaneously, the structural stiffness and mass matrices axe constructed based on the fuzzy factor method and random factor method; from the Rayleigh＇s quotient of structural vibration, the structural fuzzy random dynamic characteristic is obtained by means of the interval arithmetic; the fuzzy numeric characteristics of dynamic characteristic axe then derived by using the random variable＇s moment function method and algebra synthesis method. Two examples axe used to illustrate the validity and rationality of the method given. The advantage of this method is that the effect of the fuzzy randomness of one of the structural parameters on the fuzzy randomness of the dynamic characteristic can be reflected expediently and objectively.

Improved Group Fuzzy Preference Programming Method Based on Fuzzy Random Theory

A new prioritization method in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, which improves the group fuzzy preference programming （GFPP） method, is proposed. The fuzzy random theory is applied in the new prioritization method. By modifying the principle of decision making implied in the GFPP method, the improved group fuzzy preference programming （IGFPP） method is formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem to maximize the average degree of the group satisfaction with all possible group priority vectors. The IGFPP method inherits the advantages of the GFPP method, and solves the weighting trouble existed in the GFPP method. Numerical tests indicate that the IGFPP method performs more effectively than the GFPP method in the case of very contradictive comparison judgments from decision makers.

Stochastic Optimal Estimation with Fuzzy Random Variables and Fuzzy Kalman Filtering

By constructing a mcan-square performance index in the case of fuzzy random variable, the optimal estimation theorem for unknown fuzzy state using the fuzzy observation data are given. The state and output of linear discrete-time dynamic fuzzy system with Gaussian noise are Gaussian fuzzy random variable sequences. An approach to fuzzy Kalman filtering is discussed. Fuzzy Kalman filtering contains two parts： a real-valued non-random recurrence equation and the standard Kalman filtering.

Strong Laws of Large Numbers for Fuzzy Set-Valued Random Variables in Gα Space

In this paper, we shall present the strong laws of large numbers for fuzzy set-valued random variables in the sense of d∞H . The results are based on the result of single-valued random variables obtained by Taylor [1] and set-valued random variables obtained by Li Guan [2].

Multisensor Fuzzy Stochastic Fusion Based on Genetic Algorithms

To establish a parallel fusion approach of processing high dimensional information, the model and criterion of multisensor fuzzy stochastic data fusion were presented. In order to design genetic algorithm fusion, the fusion parameter coding, initial population and fitness function establishing, and fuzzy logic controller designing for genetic operations and probability choosing were completed. The discussion on the highly dimensional fusion was given. For a moving target with the division of 1 64 (velocity) and 1 75 (acceleration), the precision of fusion is 0 94 and 0 98 respectively. The fusion approach can improve the reliability and decision precision effectively.

European option pricing model in a stochastic and fuzzy environment

The primary goal of this paper is to price European options in the Merton＇s frame- work with underlying assets following jump-diffusion using fuzzy set theory. Owing to the vague fluctuation of the real financial market, the average jump rate and jump sizes cannot be recorded or collected accurately. So the main idea of this paper is to model the rate as a triangular fuzzy number and jump sizes as fuzzy random variables and use the property of fuzzy set to deduce two different jump-diffusion models underlying principle of rational expectations equilibrium price. Unlike many conventional models, the European option price will now turn into a fuzzy number. One of the major advantages of this model is that it allows investors to choose a reasonable European option price under an acceptable belief degree. The empirical results will serve as useful feedback information for improvements on the proposed model.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION ALGORITHM FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX STRUCTURAL SYSTEM BASED ON INTELLIGENT OPTIMIZATION

An efficient importance sampling algorithm is presented to analyze reliability of complex structural system with multiple failure modes and fuzzy-random uncertainties in basic variables and failure modes. In order to improve the sampling efficiency, the simulated annealing algorithm is adopted to optimize the density center of the importance sampling for each failure mode, and results that the more significant contribution the points make to fuzzy failure probability, the higher occurrence possibility the points are sampled. For the system with multiple fuzzy failure modes, a weighted and mixed importance sampling function is constructed. The contribution of each fuzzy failure mode to the system failure probability is represented by the appropriate factors, and the efficiency of sampling is improved furthermore. The variances and the coefficients of variation are derived for the failure probability estimations. Two examples are introduced to illustrate the rationality of the present method. Comparing with the direct Monte-Carlo method, the improved efficiency and the precision of the method are verified by the examples.

A Possibilistic Approach for Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in Similarity-Based Prognostic Health Management Solutions

In this paper, a data-driven prognostic model capable to deal with different sources of uncertainty is proposed. The main novelty factor is the application of a mathematical framework, namely a Random Fuzzy Variable (RFV) approach, for the representation and propagation of the different uncertainty sources affecting Prognostic Health Management (PHM) applications: measurement, future and model uncertainty. In this way, it is possible to deal not only with measurement noise and model parameters uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the degradation process, but also with systematic effects, such as systematic errors in the measurement process, incomplete knowledge of the degradation process, subjective belief about model parameters. Furthermore, the low analytical complexity of the employed prognostic model allows to easily propagate the measurement and parameters uncertainty into the RUL forecast, with no need of extensive Monte Carlo loops, so that low requirements in terms of computation power are needed. The model has been applied to two real application cases, showing high accuracy output, resulting in a potentially effective tool for predictive maintenance in different industrial sectors.

Strong Limit Theorems for Arbitrary Fuzzy Stochastic Sequences

Based on fuzzy random variables, the concept of fuzzy stochastic sequences is defined. Strong limit theorems for fuzzy stochastic sequences are established. Some known results in non-fuzzy stochastic sequences are extended. In order to prove results of this paper, the notion of fuzzy martingale difference sequences is also introduced.

Convergence Theorems for Fuzzy Superpramarts

The notions of fuzzy (super) pramart are introduced. Then the completeness and separability of metric space are discussed. A necessary and sufficient condition of convergence for fuzzy sequences is provided. Finally, the graph Kuratowski-Mosco convergence and D-convergence of fuzzy (super) pramart and quasi-martingale are studied.

A Kaleodoscopic View of Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization*

The last three decades have witnessed development of optimization under fuzziness and randomness also called Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization. The main objective of this new field is the need for basing many human decisions on information which is both fuzzily imprecise and probabilistically uncertain. Consistency indexes providing a union nexus between possibilities and probabilities of uncertain events exist in the literature. Nevertheless, there are no reliable transformations between them. This calls for new paradigms for coping with mathematical models involving both fuzziness and randomness. Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization (FSO) is an attempt to fulfill this need. In this paper, we present a panoramic view of Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization emphasizing the methodological aspects. The merits of existing methods are also briefly discussed along with some related theoretical aspects.

A comparative study of fuzzy weights of evidence and random forests for mapping mineral prospectivity for skarn-type Fe deposits in the southwestern Fujian metallogenic belt, China

Recent studies have pointed out that the widespread iron deposits in southwestern Fujian metallogenic belt(SFMB)(China) are skarn-type deposits associated with the Yanshanian granites. There is still excellent potential for mineral exploration because large areas in this belt are covered by forest. A new predictive model for mapping skarn-type Fe deposit prospectivity in this belt was developed and focused on in this study, using five criteria as evidence:(1) the contact zones of Yanshanian granites(GRANITE);(2) the contact zones within the late Paleozoic marine sedimentary rocks and the carbonate formations(FORMATION);(3) the NE-NNE-trending faults(FAULT);(4) the zones of skarn alterations(SKARN); and(5) the aeromagnetic anomaly(AEROMAGNETIC). The fuzzy weights of evidence(FWof E) method, developed from the classical weights of evidence(Wof E) and based on fuzzy sets and fuzzy probabilities, could provide smaller variances and more accurate posterior probabilities and could effectively minimize the uncertainty caused by omitted or wrongly assigned data and be more flexible than the Wof E. It is an efficient and widely used method for mineral potential mapping. Random forests(RF) is a new and useful method for data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity method, and needs further scrutiny. Both prospectivity results respectively using the FWof E and RF methods reveal that the prediction model for the skarn-type Fe deposits in the SFMB is successful and efficient. Both methods suggested that the GRANITE and FORMATION are the most valuable evidence maps, followed by SKARN, AEROMAGNETIC, and FAULT. This is coincident with the skarn-type Fe deposit mineral model in the SFMB. The unstable performance experienced when FORMATION was omitted might indicate that the highest uncertainty and risk in follow-up exploration is related to the sequences. In addition, the performance of the RF method for the skarn-type Fe deposits prospectivity in the SFMB is better than the FWof E; therefore, it could be used to guide further exploration of skarn-type Fe prospects in the SFMB.

A High-Moment Trapezoidal Fuzzy Random Portfolio Model with Background Risk

In most exiting portfolio selection models, security returns are assumed to have random or fuzzy distributions. However, uncertainties exist in actual financial markets. Markets are associated not only with inherent risk, but also with background risk that results from the differences among individual investors. This paper investigated the compliance of stock yields to the fuzzy-natured high-order moments of random numbers in order to develop a high-moment trapezoidal fuzzy random portfolio risk model based on variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Data obtained from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was used to assess the influence on the proposed model of both background risk and the maximum level of satisfaction of the portfolio. The empirical results demonstrated that the differences between the maximum and minimum variance, skewness, and kurtosis values of the portfolio were positively correlated with the variance of the background risk.

Fuzzy norm method for evaluating random vibration of airborne platform from limited PSD data

For random vibration of airborne platform, the accurate evaluation is a key indicator to ensure normal operation of airborne equipment in flight. However, only limited power spectral density（PSD） data can be obtained at the stage of flight test. Thus, those conventional evaluation methods cannot be employed when the distribution characteristics and priori information are unknown. In this paper, the fuzzy norm method（FNM） is proposed which combines the advantages of fuzzy theory and norm theory. The proposed method can deeply dig system information from limited data, which probability distribution is not taken into account. Firstly, the FNM is employed to evaluate variable interval and expanded uncertainty from limited PSD data, and the performance of FNM is demonstrated by confidence level, reliability and computing accuracy of expanded uncertainty. In addition, the optimal fuzzy parameters are discussed to meet the requirements of aviation standards and metrological practice. Finally, computer simulation is used to prove the adaptability of FNM. Compared with statistical methods, FNM has superiority for evaluating expanded uncertainty from limited data. The results show that the reliability of calculation and evaluation is superior to 95%.