Bull and Bear Dynamics of the Nigeria Stock Returns Transitory via Mingled Autoregressive Random Processes

This paper expounds the nitty-gritty of stock returns transitory, periodical behavior of its markets’ demands and cyclical-like tenure-changing of number of the stocks sold. Mingling of autoregressive random processes via Poisson and Extreme-Value-Distributions (Fréchet, Gumbel, and Weibull) error terms were designed, generalized and imitated to capture stylized traits of k-serial tenures (ability to handle cycles), Markov transitional mixing weights, switching of mingling autoregressive processes and full range shape changing predictive distributions (multimodalities) that are usually caused by large fluctuations (outliers) and long-memory in stock returns. The Poisson and Extreme-Value-Distributions Mingled Autoregressive (PMA and EVDs) models were applied to a monthly number of stocks sold in Nigeria from 1960 to 2020. It was deduced that fitted Gumbel-MAR (2:1, 1) outstripped other linear models as well as best fitted among the Poisson and Extreme-Value-Distributions Mingled autoregressive models subjected to the discrete monthly stocks sold series.

A note on asymptotic behavior of Galton-Watson branching processes in random environments

In this paper, we investigate Galton-Watson branching processes in random environments. In the case where the environmental process is a Markov chain which is positive recurrent or has a transition matrix Q (θ,α) such that sup_θ Q (θ,α)> 0 for some α, we prove that the model has the asymptotic behavior being similar to that of Galton-Watson branching processes. In other case where the environments are non-stationary independent, the sufficient conditions are obtained for certain extinction and uncertain extinction for the model.

THE CONSTRUCTION OF DENUMERABLE q-PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS-THE EXISTENCE AND UNIQUENESS

The concepts of Markov process in random environment, q-matrix in random environment, and q-process in random environment are introduced. The minimal q-process in random environment is constructed and the necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniqueness of q-process in random environment are given.

FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR SETS OF RANDOM STRING PROCESSES

This paper studies fractal properties of polar sets for random string processes. We give upper and lower bounds of the hitting probabilities on compact sets and prove some sufficient conditions and necessary conditions for compact sets to be polar for the random string process. Moreover, we also determine the smallest Hausdorff dimensions of non-polar sets by constructing a Cantor-type set to connect its Hausdorff dimension and capacity.

THE ERGODICITY FOR BI-IMMIGRATION BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

The concepts of bi-immigration birth and death density matrix in random environment and bi-immigration birth and death process in random environment are introduced. For any bi-immigration birth and death matrix in random environment Q（θ） with birth rate λ 〈 death rate μ, the following results are proved, （1） there is an unique q-process in random environment, P^-（θ＊（0）;t） = （p^-（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j）,i,j ≥ 0）, which is ergodic, that is, lim t→∞（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j） = π^-（θ^＊（0）;j） ≥0 does not depend on i ≥ 0 and ∑j≥0π （θ＊（0）;j） = 1, （2） there is a bi-immigration birth and death process in random enjvironment （X^＊ = {X^＊,t ≥ 0},ε^＊ = {εt,t ∈ （-∞, ∞）}） with random transition matrix P^-（θ^＊ （0）;t） such that X^＊ is a strictly stationary process.

THE CONSTRUCTION OF DENUMERABLE q-PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS SATISFYING (F) OR (B)

This article is a continuation of[9].Based on the discussion of random Kolmogorov forward（backward）equations,for any given q-matrix in random environment, Q（θ）=（q（θ;x,y）,x,y∈X）,an infinite class of q-processes in random environments satisfying the random Kolmogorov forward（backward）equation is constructed.Moreover, under some conditions,all the q-processes in random environments satisfying the random Kolmogorov forward（backward）equation are constructed.

Asymptotic Results for Random Processes

In this paper we establish asymptotic results and a generalized uniform law of the iterated logarithm （LIL） for the increments of a strictly stationary random process, whose results are proved by separating linearly positive quadrant dependent （LPQD） random process and linearly negative quadrant dependent （LNQD） one, respectively.

Approximation of Spatio-Temporal Random Processes Using Tensor Decomposition

A new representation of spatio-temporal random processes is proposed in this work.In practical applications,such processes are used to model velocity fields,temperature distributions,response of vibrating systems,to name a few.Finding an efficient representation for any random process leads to encapsulation of information which makes it more convenient for a practical implementations,for instance,in a computational mechanics problem.For a single-parameter process such as spatial or temporal process,the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix leads to the well-known Karhunen-Lo`eve(KL)decomposition.However,for multiparameter processes such as a spatio-temporal process,the covariance function itself can be defined in multiple ways.Here the process is assumed to be measured at a finite set of spatial locations and a finite number of time instants.Then the spatial covariance matrix at different time instants are considered to define the covariance of the process.This set of square,symmetric,positive semi-definite matrices is then represented as a thirdorder tensor.A suitable decomposition of this tensor can identify the dominant components of the process,and these components are then used to define a closed-form representation of the process.The procedure is analogous to the KL decomposition for a single-parameter process,however,the decompositions and interpretations vary significantly.The tensor decompositions are successfully applied on(i)a heat conduction problem,(ii)a vibration problem,and(iii)a covariance function taken from the literature that was fitted to model a measured wind velocity data.It is observed that the proposed representation provides an efficient approximation to some processes.Furthermore,a comparison with KL decomposition showed that the proposed method is computationally cheaper than the KL,both in terms of computer memory and execution time.

Some limsup results for increments of stable processes in random scenery

In this paper,we prove some limsup results for increments and lag increments of G(t),which is a stable processe in random scenery.The proofs rely on the tail probability estimation of G(t).

THE SOLUTION OF RANDOM EIGENVALUE PROBLEM WITH SMALL STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

This paper considers an eigenvalue problem containing small stochastic processes. For every fixed is, we can use the Prufer substitution to prove the existence of the random solutions lambda(n) and u(n) in the meaning of large probability. These solutions can be expanded in epsilon regularly, and their correction terms can be obtained by solving some random linear differential equations.

Optimization study of station track utilization in high-speed railroad based on constraints of control in random origin and process

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to eliminate the fluctuations in train arrival and departure times caused by skewed distributions in interval operation times.These fluctuations arise from random origin and process factors during interval operations and can accumulate over multiple intervals.The aim is to enhance the robustness of high-speed rail station arrival and departure track utilization schemes.Design/methodologylapproach-To achieve this objective,the paper simulates actual train operations,incorporating the fluctuations in interval operation times into the utilization of arrival and departure tracks at the station.The Monte Carlo simulation method is adopted to solve this problem.This approach transforms a nonlinear model,which includes constraints from probability distribution functions and is difficult to solve directly,into a linear programming model that is easier to handle.The method then linearly weights two objectives to optimize the solution.Findings-Through the application of Monte Carlo simulation,the study successfully converts the complex nonlinear model with probability distribution function constraints into a manageable linear programming model.By continuously adjusting the weighting coefficients of the linear objectives,the method is able to optimize the Pareto solution.Notably,this approach does not require extensive scene data to obtain a satisfactory Pareto solution set.Originality/value-The paper contributes to the field by introducing a novel method for optimizing high-speed rail station arrival and departure track utilization in the presence of fluctuations in interval operation times.The use of Monte Carlo simulation to transform the problem into a tractable linear programming model represents a significant advancement.Furthermore,the method's ability to produce satisfactory Pareto solutions without relying on extensive data sets adds to its practical value and applicability in real-world scenarios.

Theoretical Model and Random Simulation for Nonlinear Interaction of Irregular Waves with Vertical Wall

According to the theoretical solutions for the nonlinear three-dimensional gravity surface waves and their interactions with vertical wall previously proposed by the lead author, in this paper an exact second-order random model of the unified wave motion process for nonlinear irregular waves and their interactions with vertical wall in uniform current is formulated, the corresponding theoretical nonlinear spectrum is derived, and the digital simulation model suitable to the use of the FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) algorithm is also given. Simulations of wave surface, wave pressure, total wave pressure and its moment are performed. The probability properties and statistical characteristics of these realizations are tested, which include the verifications of normality for linear process and of non-normality for nonlinear process; the consistencies of the theoretical spectra with simulated ones; the probability properties of apparent characteristics, such as amplitudes, periods, and extremes (maximum and minimum, positive and negative extremes). The statistical analysis and comparisons demonstrate that the proposed theoretical and computing models are realistic and effective, and estimated spectra are in good agreement with the theoretical ones, and the probability properties of the simulated waves are similar to those of the sea waves. At the same time, the simulating computation can be completed rapidly and easily.

Analysis on Pseudo Excitation of Random Vibration for Structure of Time Flight Counter

Traditional computing method is inefficient for getting key dynamical parameters of complicated structure.Pseudo Excitation Method（PEM）is an effective method for calculation of random vibration.Due to complicated and coupling random vibration in rocket or shuttle launching,the new staging white noise mathematical model is deduced according to the practical launch environment.This deduced model is applied for PEM to calculate the specific structure of Time of Flight Counter（ToFC）.The responses of power spectral density and the relevant dynamic characteristic parameters of ToFC are obtained in terms of the flight acceptance test level.Considering stiffness of fixture structure,the random vibration experiments are conducted in three directions to compare with the revised PEM.The experimental results show the structure can bear the random vibration caused by launch without any damage and key dynamical parameters of ToFC are obtained.The revised PEM is similar with random vibration experiment in dynamical parameters and responses are proved by comparative results.The maximum error is within 9%.The reasons of errors are analyzed to improve reliability of calculation.This research provides an effective method for solutions of computing dynamical characteristic parameters of complicated structure in the process of rocket or shuttle launching.

Random testing for system-level functional verification of system-on-chip

In order to deal with the limitations during the register transfer level verification, a new functional verification method based on the random testing for the system-level of system-on-chip is proposed.The validity of this method is proven theoretically.Specifically, testcases are generated according to many approaches of randomization.Moreover, the testbench for the system-level verification according to the proposed method is designed by using advanced modeling language.Therefore, under the circumstances that the testbench generates testcases quickly, the hardware/software co-simulation and co-verification can be implemented and the hardware/software partitioning planning can be evaluated easily.The comparison method is put to use in the evaluation approach of the testing validity.The evaluation result indicates that the efficiency of the partition testing is better than that of the random testing only when one or more subdomains are covered over with the area of errors, although the efficiency of the random testing is generally better than that of the partition testing.The experimental result indicates that this method has a good performance in the functional coverage and the cost of testing and can discover the functional errors as soon as possible.

ON DESIGN METHOD OF THE PRECISION CAM PROFILE WITH RANDOM PROCESSING ERRORS

Based on probability and statistic, a design method of precision cam profileconcerning the influence of random processing errors is advanced. Combining the design with theprocess, which can be used to predict that cam profiles will be successfully processed or not in thedesign stage, design of the cam can be done by balancing the economization and reliability. Inaddition, an fuzzy deduction method based on Bayers formula is advanced to estimate processingreasonable of the designed precision cam profile, and it take few samples.

A direct probabilistic approach to solve state equations for nonlinear systems under random excitation

In this paper, a direct probabilistic approach（DPA） is presented to formulate and solve moment equations for nonlinear systems excited by environmental loads that can be either a stationary or nonstationary random process.The proposed method has the advantage of obtaining the response＇s moments directly from the initial conditions and statistical characteristics of the corresponding external excitations. First, the response＇s moment equations are directly derived based on a DPA, which is completely independent of the It？/filtering approach since no specific assumptions regarding the correlation structure of excitation are made.By solving them under Gaussian closure, the response＇s moments can be obtained. Subsequently, a multiscale algorithm for the numerical solution of moment equations is exploited to improve computational efficiency and avoid much wall-clock time. Finally, a comparison of the results with Monte Carlo（MC） simulation gives good agreement.Furthermore, the advantage of the multiscale algorithm in terms of efficiency is also demonstrated by an engineering example.

LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A GALTON-WATSON PROCESS IN THE I.I.D. RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

In this article, we obtain the central limit theorem and the law of the iterated logarithm for Galton-Watson processes in i.i.d, random environments.

The Equivalence Forms of Random Kolmogorov Forward(Backward) Equations

The concepts of Markov process in random environment, q-matrix in random environment and q-process in random environment are introduced. Three forms of random Kolmoogrov farward （or backward） equations are introduced and the equivalence of these three forms are also proved. Moreover any conservative q-process in random environment satisfies random Kolmogrov backward equation.

THE ANALYTICAL PROPERTIES FOR HOMOGENEOUS RANDOM TRANSITION FUNCTIONS

The concepts of Markov process in random environment and homogeneous random transition functions are introduced. The necessary and sufficient conditions for homogeneous random transition function are given. The main results in this article are the analytical properties, such as continuity, differentiability, random Kolmogorov backward equation and random Kolmogorov forward equation of homogeneous random transition functions.

Application of Random Process in Soil Profile Modeling

When using the random process in soil profile modeling, the stationary and ergodicity of the soil properties in the profile must be tested. This paper describes a procedure for stationary and ergodicity testing. Numerical examples were given for demonstration. A log-cosine function is suggested to simulate the correlation function, which has been proved to be good for soil profile modeling.