Reliability Analysis Based on Optimization Random Forest Model and MCMC

Based on the rapid simulation of Markov Chain on samples in failure region,a novel method of reliability analysis combiningMonte Carlo Markov Chain(MCMC)with random forest algorithmwas proposed.Firstly,a series of samples distributing around limit state function are generated by MCMC.Then,the samples were taken as training data to establish the random forest model.Afterwards,Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the failure probability.Finally,examples demonstrate the proposed method possesses higher computational efficiency and accuracy.

SEISMIC RANDOM VIBRATION ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC STRUCTURES USING RANDOM FACTOR METHOD

Seismic random vibration analysis of stochastic truss structures is presented. A new method called random factor method is used for dynamic analysis of structures with uncertain parameters, due to variability in their material properties and geometry. Using the random factor method, the natural frequencies and modeshapes of a stochastic structure can be respectively described by the product of two parts, corresponding to the random factors of the structural parameters with uncertainty, and deterministic values of the natural frequencies and modeshapes obtained by conventional finite element analysis. The stochastic truss structure is subjected to stationary or non-stationary random earthquake excitation. Computational expressions for the mean and standard deviation of the mean square displacement and mean square stress are developed by means of the random variable＇s functional moment method and the algebra synthesis method. An antenna and a truss bridge are used as practical engineering examples to illustrate the application of the random factor method in the seismic response analysis of random structures under stationary or non-stationary random earthquake excitation.

Efficient adaptive Kriging for system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes under random and interval hybrid uncertainty

In the field of the system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes,the advances mainly involve only random uncertainty.The upper bound of the system failure probability with multiple failure modes is usually employed to quantify the safety level under Random and Interval Hybrid Uncertainty(RI-HU).At present,there is a lack of an efficient and accurate method for estimating the upper bound of the system failure probability.This paper proposed an efficient Kriging model based on numerical simulation algorithm to solve the system reliability analysis under RI-HU.This method proposes a system learning function to train the system Kriging models of the system limit state surface.The convergent Kriging models are used to replace the limit state functions of the system multi-mode for identifying the state of the random sample.The proposed system learning function can adaptively select the failure mode contributing most to the system failure probability from the system and update its Kriging model.Thus,the efficiency of the Kriging training process can be improved by avoiding updating the Kriging models contributing less to estimating the system failure probability.The presented examples illustrate the superiority of the proposed method.

Fuzzy norm method for evaluating random vibration of airborne platform from limited PSD data

For random vibration of airborne platform, the accurate evaluation is a key indicator to ensure normal operation of airborne equipment in flight. However, only limited power spectral density（PSD） data can be obtained at the stage of flight test. Thus, those conventional evaluation methods cannot be employed when the distribution characteristics and priori information are unknown. In this paper, the fuzzy norm method（FNM） is proposed which combines the advantages of fuzzy theory and norm theory. The proposed method can deeply dig system information from limited data, which probability distribution is not taken into account. Firstly, the FNM is employed to evaluate variable interval and expanded uncertainty from limited PSD data, and the performance of FNM is demonstrated by confidence level, reliability and computing accuracy of expanded uncertainty. In addition, the optimal fuzzy parameters are discussed to meet the requirements of aviation standards and metrological practice. Finally, computer simulation is used to prove the adaptability of FNM. Compared with statistical methods, FNM has superiority for evaluating expanded uncertainty from limited data. The results show that the reliability of calculation and evaluation is superior to 95%.

Bernoulli particle flter with observer altitude for maritime radiation source tracking in the presence of measurement uncertainty

For maritime radiation source target tracking in particular electronic counter measures（ECM）environment,there exists two main problems which can deteriorate the tracking performance of traditional approaches.The frst problem is the poor observability of the radiation source.The second one is the measurement uncertainty which includes the uncertainty of the target appearing/disappearing and the detection uncertainty（false and missed detections）.A novel approach is proposed in this paper for tracking maritime radiation source in the presence of measurement uncertainty.To solve the poor observability of maritime radiation source target,using the radiation source motion restriction,the observer altitude information is incorporated into the bearings-only tracking（BOT）method to obtain the unique target localization.Then the two uncertainties in the ECM environment are modeled by the random fnite set（RFS）theory and the Bernoulli fltering method with the observer altitude is adopted to solve the tracking problem of maritime radiation source in such context.Simulation experiments verify the validity of the proposed approach for tracking maritime radiation source,and also demonstrate the superiority of the method compared with the traditional integrated probabilistic data association（IPDA）method.The tracking performance under different conditions,particularly those involving different duration of radiation source opening and switching-off,indicates that the method to solve our problem is robust and effective.