The interaction between temperature and precipitation on the potential distribution range of Betula ermanii in the alpine treeline ecotone on the Changbai Mountain

Alpine treeline ecotones are highly sensitive to climate warming.The low temperature-determined alpine treeline is expected to shift upwards in response to global warming.However,little is known about how temperature interacts with other important factors to influence the distribution range of tree species within and beyond the alpine treeline ecotone.Hence,we used a GF-2 satellite image,along with bioclimatic and topographic variables,to develop an ensemble suitable habitat model based on the species distribution modeling algorithms in Biomod2.We investigated the distribution of suitable habitats for B.ermanii under three climate change scenarios(i.e.,low(SSP126),moderate(SSP370)and extreme(SSP585)future emission trajectories)between two consecutive time periods(i.e.,current-2055,and 2055-2085).By 2055,the potential distribution range of B.ermanii will expand under all three climate scenarios.The medium and high suitable areas will decline under SSP370 and SSP585scenarios from 2055 to 2085.Moreover,under the three climate scenarios,the uppermost altitudes of low suitable habitat will rise to 2,329 m a.s.l.,while the altitudes of medium and high suitable habitats will fall to 2,201 and2,051 m a.s.l.by 2085,respectively.Warming promotes the expansion of B.ermanii distribution range in Changbai Mountain,and this expansion will be modified by precipitation as climate warming continues.This interaction between temperature and precipitation plays a significant role in shaping the potential distribution range of B.ermanii in the alpine treeline ecotone.This study reveals the link between environmental factors,habitat distribution,and species distribution in the alpine treeline ecotone,providing valuable insights into the impacts of climate change on high-elevation vegetation,and contributing to mountain biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.

Climate change induced range shifts of Galliformes in China

Climate change will cause range shifts of many species in the future.Galliformes might be particularly vulnerable to climate change,as they have low dispersal ability.Little is known about their possible responses to the future climate.We used a generalized additive model to predict the current and future ranges of all 63 Galliformes in China,based on a comprehensive species occurrence database and a combination of climate variables.Other environmental variables(e.g.elevation and human footprint index)were also considered,as well as the latitude and longitude of the occurrences.Principal component analysis was conducted to illustrate the association between environmental variables and Galliformes distributions.Using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES)A2 climate change scenario for 2071–2100,we projected that 29 species would have range shifts over 50%,including 13 endemic species.Galliformes at higher elevation face greater range shifts.Northward shifts are greater than those in other directions.We suggest conservationists pay special attention to the 29 Galliformes that face extensive range shifts,especially the endemic species among them.

Absorption Range and Energy Shift of Surface Plasmon in Au Monomer and Dimer

The resonance behaviors of local surface plasmon resonance in Au monomer and dimer are characterized sys- temically by electron energy loss spectroscopy in a scanning transmission electron microscope. The measured absorption range is about 20nm larger than the physical size of the Au nanoparticles and the resonance peak energy shows a red shift when the electron beam passes off the nanoparticles. The Au dimer displays similar behaviors. Numerical simulation also reproduces those experimental results.

Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle(Quiscalus quiscula)in the near future under climate change scenarios

Background:Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and will shape future biogeographic patterns.While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate change will affect rare and declining species we have less of an understanding of the likely consequences for some abundant species.The Common Grackle(Quiscalus quiscula;Linnaeus 1758),though declining in portions of its range,is a widespread blackbird(Icteridae)species in North America east of the Rocky Mountains.This study examined how climate change might affect the future range distribution of Common Grackles.Methods:We used the R package Wallace and six general climate models(ACCESS1-0,BCC-CSM1-1,CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2,CNRM-CM5,MIROC-ESM,and MPI-ESM-LR)available for the future(2070)to identify climatically suitable areas,with an ecological niche modelling approach that includes the use of environmental conditions.Results:Future projections suggested a significant expansion from the current range into northern parts of North America and Alaska,even under more optimistic climate change scenarios.Additionally,there is evidence of possible future colonization of islands in the Caribbean as well as coastal regions in eastern Central America.The most important bioclimatic variables for model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature,Temperature Seasonality,Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Annual Precipitation.Conclusions:The results suggest that the Common Grackle could continue to expand its range in North America over the next 50 years.This research is important in helping us understand how climate change will affect future range patterns of widespread,common bird species.

Elevational distribution of butterflies in the Himalayas: a case study from Langtang National Park, Nepal

Mountain ecosystems are relatively more vulnerable to climate change since human induced climate change is projected to be higher at high altitudes and latitudes. Climate change induced effects related to glacial response and water hazards have been documented in the Himalayas in recent years, yet studies regarding species' response to climate change are largely lacking from the mountains and Himalayas of Nepal. Changes in distribution and latitudinal/altitudinal range shift, which are primary adaptive responses to climate change in many species,are largely unknown due to unavailability of adequate data from the past. In this study, we explored the elevational distribution of butterflies in Langtang Village Development Committee(VDC) of Langtang National park; a park located in the high altitudes of Nepal. We found a decreasing species richness pattern along the elevational gradient considered here.Interestingly, elevation did not appear to have a significant effect on the altitudinal distribution ofbutterflies at family level. Also, distribution of butterflies in the area was independent of habitat type,at family level. Besides, we employed indicator group analysis(at family level) and noticed that butterfly families Papilionidae, Riodinidae, and Nymphalidae are significantly associated to high, medium and low elevational zone making them indicator butterfly family for those elevational zones, respectively. We expect that this study could serve as a baseline information for future studies regarding climate change effects and range shifts and provide avenues for further exploration of butterflies in the high altitudes of Nepal.

Effects of Climate Change and Shifts in Forest Composition on Forest Net Primary Production

Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly influenced by climate. However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production （NPP） are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species （DISTRIB Model） and predict their impacts on NPP （PnET-Ⅱ Model） that will be associated with alterations in species composition. We selected four 200 × 200 km areas in Wisconsin, Maine, Arkansas, and the Ohio-West Virginia area, representing focal areas of potential species range shifts. PnET-Ⅱ model simulations were carried out assuming that all forests achieved steady state, of which the species compositions were predicted by DISTRIB model with no migration limitation. The total NPP under the current climate ranged from 552 to 908 g C/m^2 per year. The effects of potential species redistributions on NPP were moderate （-12% to ＋8%） compared with the influence of future climatic changes （-60% to ＋25%）. The direction and magnitude of climate change effects on NPP were largely dependent on the degree of warming and water balance. Thus, the magnitude of future climate change can affect the feedback system between the atmosphere and biosphere.

Global Warming： Can Existing Reserves Really Preserve Current Levels of Biological Diversity？

Peleoecologlcel evidence end peleoclimatlc records indicate that there wee e plant polewerd migration in latitude and an upward shift In elevation with increased temperatures after the last glaciation. Recent studies have shown that global warming over the past 100 years has been having a noticeable effect on living systems. Current global warming Is causing a poleward and upward shift In the range of many plants and animals. Climate change, In connection with other global changes, is threatening the survival of a wide range of plant and animal species. This raises the question： can existing reserves really preserve current levels of biological diversity In the long term given the present rapid pace of climate change？ The present paper deals with this question In the context of the responses of plants and animals to global climate change, based on a literature review. Consequently, we recommend expanding reserves towards the poles and/or towards higher altitudes, to permit species to shift their ranges to keep pace with global warming.

Projected impacts of climate change on protected birds and nature reserves in China

Knowledge about climate change impacts on species distribution at national scale is critical to biodi- versity conservation and design of management programs. Although China is a biodiversity hot spot in the world, potential influence of climate change on Chinese protected birds is rarely studied. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on 108 protected bird species and nature reserves using species distribution modeling at a relatively fine spatial resolution （1 km） for the first time. We found that a large proportion of protected species would have potential suitable habitat shrink and northward range shift by 77-90 km in response to projected future climate change in 2080. Southeastern China would suffer from losing climate suitability, whereas the climate conditions in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northeastern China were projected to become suitable for more protected species. On average, each protected area in decline of suitable climate for China would experience a 3-4 species by 2080. Cli- mate change will modify which species each protected area will be suitable for. Our results showed that the risk of extinction for Chinese protected birds would be high, even in the moderate climate change scenario. These findings indicate that the management and design of nature reserves in China must take climate change into consideration.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change:Potential and limitations

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota,resulting in range shifts,novel interactions,food web alterations,changed intensities of host–parasite interactions,and extinctions.An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance.In this opinion paper,we argue that,while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts,a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction.First,there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects,and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations.Second,there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation,such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other(human-induced)environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs.Third,the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional(dispersal and range shift)responses.These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations.We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival.It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent.Yet,considering evolution is crucial,as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local,metacommunity and regional scales.

Climate migrants’survival threatened by“C”shaped anthropic barriers

Despite studies on range shifts being abundant,the problem of dispersal barriers limiting climate migrants’movement is yet to be fully included into any modeling framework.For this reason,we introduce a novel concept whereby the interplay of range shifts and dispersal barriers of a particular spatial configuration can threaten the persistence of populations under a climate change scenario.We named this concept“C-trap,”based on the topographic shape of such barriers.After elaborating on the theoretical features of C-traps,we provide a simple method that combines environmental data and future climate projections to locate them spatially.We use this method to determine where high C-trap densities have the potential to further threaten the conservation of endangered,endemic animals across the world’s terrestrial realm,in a climate change scenario.Our methodology detected potential C-traps for the study system,with areas of high density mostly located in east Europe,south Asia and North America.However,finer-scale analyses are required to assess the magnitude of the threat locally.Dispersal barriers add an additional dimension to range shift studies and can ultimately prevent otherwise successful climate migrants from tracking their climatic niche.The methodology presented here is simple and flexible enough to be adapted to a wide range of taxa and locations as well as the fast development of range shift modeling.Therefore,we encourage researchers to include the effects of anthropogenic dispersal barriers in range shifts models and in the planning of effective conservation strategies with reference to climate change.

Effects of soil warming history on the performances of congeneric temperate and boreal herbaceous plant species and their associations with soil biota

Aims Climate warming raises the probability of range expansions of warm-adapted temperate species into areas currently dominated by cold-adapted boreal species.Warming-induced plant range expansions could partly depend on how warming modifies relationships with soil biota that promote plant growth,such as by mineralizing nutri-ents.Here,we grew two pairs of congeneric herbaceous plants spe-cies together in soil with a 5-year warming history(ambient,+1.7℃,+3.4℃)and related their performances to plant-beneficial soil biota.Methods Each plant pair belonged to either the mid-latitude temperate climate or the higher latitude southern boreal climate.Warmed soils were extracted from a chamberless heating experiment at two field sites in the temperate-boreal ecotone of North America.To isolate poten-tial effects of different soil warming histories,air temperature for the greenhouse experiment was identical across soils.We hypothesized that soil with a 5-year warming history in the field would enhance the performance of temperate plant species more than boreal plant species and expected improved plant performances to have positive associations with plant growth-promoting soil biota(microbial-feeding nematodes and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi).Important Findings Our main hypothesis was partly confirmed as only one temperate spe-cies performed better in soil with warming history than in soil with his-tory of ambient temperature.Further,this effect was restricted to the site with higher soil water content in the growing season of the sampling year(prior to soil collection).One of the boreal species performed con-sistently worse in previously warmed soil,whereas the other species showed neutral responses to soil warming history.We found a positive correlation between the density of microbial-feeding nematodes and the performance of one of the temperate species in previously wetter soils,but this correlation was negative at the site with previously drier soil.We found no significant correlations between the performance of the other temperate species as well as the two boreal species and any of the studied soil biota.Our results indicate that soil warming can modify the relation between certain plant species and microbial-feeding nematodes in given soil edaphic conditions,which might be important for plant performance in the temperate-boreal ecotone.