Under the background of urban renewal, this paper re-explores the tourism development modeof Nanluoguxiang historical and cultural block based on online review data, and puts forward correspondingdevelopment strategie...Under the background of urban renewal, this paper re-explores the tourism development modeof Nanluoguxiang historical and cultural block based on online review data, and puts forward correspondingdevelopment strategies. As a cultural label of a city, historical and cultural blocks should be updated first inorder to achieve sustainable development. By using multi-source big data review and qualitative researchmethods, the perception evaluation of tourists in Nanluoguxiang is obtained, and the shortcomings ofcurrent tourism development mode are analyzed. Furthermore, corresponding improvement strategies andsuggestions are put forward, in order to provide some effective ideas for the sustainable development ofhistorical and cultural blocks in the future.展开更多
The three-member historical simulations by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model,version f3-L(CAS FGOALS-f3-L),which is contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter...The three-member historical simulations by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model,version f3-L(CAS FGOALS-f3-L),which is contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are described in this study.The details of the CAS FGOALS-f3-L model,experiment settings and output datasets are briefly introduced.The datasets include monthly and daily outputs from the atmospheric,oceanic,land and sea-ice component models of CAS FGOALS-f3-L,and all these data have been published online in the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF,https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/).The three ensembles are initialized from the 600th,650th and 700th model year of the preindustrial experiment(piControl)and forced by the same historical forcing provided by CMIP6 from 1850 to 2014.The performance of the coupled model is validated in comparison with some recent observed atmospheric and oceanic datasets.It is shown that CAS FGOALS-f3-L is able to reproduce the main features of the modern climate,including the climatology of air surface temperature and precipitation,the long-term changes in global mean surface air temperature,ocean heat content and sea surface steric height,and the horizontal and vertical distribution of temperature in the ocean and atmosphere.Meanwhile,like other state-of-the-art coupled GCMs,there are still some obvious biases in the historical simulations,which are also illustrated.This paper can help users to better understand the advantages and biases of the model and the datasets。展开更多
This paper describes the historical simulations produced by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)climate system model(CAMS-CSM),which are contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Pro...This paper describes the historical simulations produced by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)climate system model(CAMS-CSM),which are contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).The model description,experiment design and model outputs are presented.Three members’historical experiments are conducted by CAMS-CSM,with two members starting from different initial conditions,and one excluding the stratospheric aerosol to identify the effect of volcanic eruptions.The outputs of the historical experiments are also validated using observational data.It is found that the model can reproduce the climatological mean states and seasonal cycle of the major climate system quantities,including the surface air temperature,precipitation,and the equatorial thermocline.The long-term trend of air temperature and precipitation is also reasonably captured by CAMS-CSM.There are still some biases in the model that need further improvement.This paper can help the users to better understand the performance and the datasets of CAMS-CSM.展开更多
The calibration of paleoclimate proxies is one of the key problems in the study of paleoclimate at present. Historical documentary records of climate are suitable for calibration on dating and the climatic implication...The calibration of paleoclimate proxies is one of the key problems in the study of paleoclimate at present. Historical documentary records of climate are suitable for calibration on dating and the climatic implication of the proxy data in a climatological sense. A test calibration on correcting the Delingha tree ring precipitation series using Chinese historical documentary records shows that among the 44 extreme dry cases in 1401 1950 AD, 42 cases (or 95.5%) are believable. Thus the long series of Delingha rings-denoted precipitation is highly reliable. Another test to validate the monsoon intensity proxy data based on the Zhanjiang Huguangyan sediments using historical records indicates that the years of Lake Maar Ti content series-designated winter monsoon intensities are entirely opposite to historical documents- depicted years of harsh winters in 800-900 AD. As a result, serious doubt is raised about the climatic implication of this paleo-monsoon proxy series.展开更多
In Chinese language studies, both “The Textual Research on Historical Documents” and “The Comparative Study of Historical Data” are traditional in methodology and they both deserve being treasured, passed on, and ...In Chinese language studies, both “The Textual Research on Historical Documents” and “The Comparative Study of Historical Data” are traditional in methodology and they both deserve being treasured, passed on, and further developed. It will certainly do harm to the development of academic research if any of the two methods is given unreasonable priority. The author claims that the best or one of the best methodologies of the historical study of Chinese language is the combination of the two, hence a new interpretation of “The Double-proof Method”. Meanwhile, this essay is also an attempt to put forward “The Law of Quan-ma and Gui-mei” in Chinese language studies, in which the author believes that it is not advisable to either treat Gui-mei as Quan-ma or vice versa in linguistic research. It is crucial for us to respect always the language facts first, which is considered the very soul of linguistics.展开更多
Keriya River, one of the ancient Four Green Corridors in the Tarim Basin, recording the changes of climate-environment and the ancient Silk Road of the region. According to the archaeological data, historical material...Keriya River, one of the ancient Four Green Corridors in the Tarim Basin, recording the changes of climate-environment and the ancient Silk Road of the region. According to the archaeological data, historical materials and paleoclimates information, its eeo-environment and climate have taken great changes since the 1.09 Ma B.P, especially during the recent 2,000 years, many famous ancient cities having been abandoned and the south route of the Silk Road has been moved southward. This study illustrates the capability of the remote sensing data (radar data, topographic data and optical images) and historical materials, in mapping the ancient drainage networks. A major paleodrainage system of Keriya River has linked the Kunlun Mountains to the Tienshan Mountains, possibly as far back as the early Pleistocene. The Keriya River will have important implications for not only the understanding of the paleoenvironments and paleoclimates of Tarim Basin from the early Pleistocene to the Holocene, but also the changes of the Silk Road.展开更多
Decision-making of investors at the stock exchange can be based on the fundamental indicators of stocks, on the technical indicators, or can exist as a combination of these two methods. The paper gives emphasis to the...Decision-making of investors at the stock exchange can be based on the fundamental indicators of stocks, on the technical indicators, or can exist as a combination of these two methods. The paper gives emphasis to the domain of technical analysis. In the broader sense the technical analysis enables the dynamics of the expected future values of the shares estimation. This can be performed on the basis of the data on historical trends of the revenues, profits and other indicators from the balance sheet, but also on the basis of historical data on changes in the values of the shares. Companies generally belong to the different sectors that have different presumptions of development resulting from the global market trends, technology and other characteristic. Processing of historical data values of the outstanding shares of the Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE) is origination of this research. Investors are interested to know the estimation of future returns for the stocks as well as the size of the risk associated with the expected returns. Research task in this paper is finding the optimal portfolio at the ZSE based on the concept of dominant portfolio by Markowitz approach. The portfolio is created by solving non-linear programming problem using the common software tools. The results of obtained optimal portfolios contain relevant conclusions about the specifics of the shares as well as the characteristics of the industrial sectors but also provide a further knowledge about diverse sectors treatment at the stock exchange in a multi-year period.展开更多
Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is ...Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is to use an ensemble forecast; however, this is very time-consuming. The historical sampling approach is an alternative way to generate the ensemble,by picking some snapshots from historical forecast series.With this approach, many ensemble-based assimilation schemes can be used in a deterministic forecast environment. Furthermore, considering the time that it saves, the method has the potential for operational application.However, the historical sampling approach carries with it a special kind of sampling error because, in a historical forecast, the way to integrate the ensemble members is different from the way to integrate the initial conditions at the analysis time(i.e., forcing and lateral boundary condition differences, and ‘warm start' or ‘cold start' differences). This study analyzes the results of an experiment with the Global Regional Assimilation Prediction System-Global Forecast System(GRAPES-GFS), to evaluate how the different integration configurations influence the historical sampling error for global models. The results show that the sampling error is dominated by diurnal cycle patterns as a result of the radiance forcing difference.Although the RMSEs of the sampling error are small, in view of the correlation coefficients of the perturbed ensemble, the sampling error for some variables on some levels(e.g., low-level temperature and humidity, stratospheric temperature and geopotential height and humidity), is non-negligible. The results suggest some caution must be applied, and advice taken, when using the historical sampling approach.展开更多
The development of vehicle-to-everything and cloud computing has brought new opportunities and challenges to the automobile industry.In this paper,a commuter vehicle demand torque prediction method based on historical...The development of vehicle-to-everything and cloud computing has brought new opportunities and challenges to the automobile industry.In this paper,a commuter vehicle demand torque prediction method based on historical vehicle speed information is proposed,which uses machine learning to predict and analyze vehicle demand torque.Firstly,the big data of vehicle driving is collected,and the driving data is cleaned and features extracted based on road information.Then,the vehicle longitudinal driving dynamics model is established.Next,the vehicle simulation simulator is established based on the longitudinal driving dynamics model of the vehicle,and the driving torque of the vehicle is obtained.Finally,the travel is divided into several accelerationcruise-deceleration road pairs for analysis,and the vehicle demand torque is predicted by BP neural network and Gaussian process regression.展开更多
基金National Social Science Foundation Project of China(21FYSB048)Humanities and Social Sciences Research Project of the Ministry of Education(20YJAZH1010).
文摘Under the background of urban renewal, this paper re-explores the tourism development modeof Nanluoguxiang historical and cultural block based on online review data, and puts forward correspondingdevelopment strategies. As a cultural label of a city, historical and cultural blocks should be updated first inorder to achieve sustainable development. By using multi-source big data review and qualitative researchmethods, the perception evaluation of tourists in Nanluoguxiang is obtained, and the shortcomings ofcurrent tourism development mode are analyzed. Furthermore, corresponding improvement strategies andsuggestions are put forward, in order to provide some effective ideas for the sustainable development ofhistorical and cultural blocks in the future.
基金This study is jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDA19060102 and XDB42010400)the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41530426,91958201 and 41931183).
文摘The three-member historical simulations by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model,version f3-L(CAS FGOALS-f3-L),which is contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are described in this study.The details of the CAS FGOALS-f3-L model,experiment settings and output datasets are briefly introduced.The datasets include monthly and daily outputs from the atmospheric,oceanic,land and sea-ice component models of CAS FGOALS-f3-L,and all these data have been published online in the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF,https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/).The three ensembles are initialized from the 600th,650th and 700th model year of the preindustrial experiment(piControl)and forced by the same historical forcing provided by CMIP6 from 1850 to 2014.The performance of the coupled model is validated in comparison with some recent observed atmospheric and oceanic datasets.It is shown that CAS FGOALS-f3-L is able to reproduce the main features of the modern climate,including the climatology of air surface temperature and precipitation,the long-term changes in global mean surface air temperature,ocean heat content and sea surface steric height,and the horizontal and vertical distribution of temperature in the ocean and atmosphere.Meanwhile,like other state-of-the-art coupled GCMs,there are still some obvious biases in the historical simulations,which are also illustrated.This paper can help users to better understand the advantages and biases of the model and the datasets。
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFC1510001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91637210)+1 种基金the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(Grant No.2018Z007)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘This paper describes the historical simulations produced by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)climate system model(CAMS-CSM),which are contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).The model description,experiment design and model outputs are presented.Three members’historical experiments are conducted by CAMS-CSM,with two members starting from different initial conditions,and one excluding the stratospheric aerosol to identify the effect of volcanic eruptions.The outputs of the historical experiments are also validated using observational data.It is found that the model can reproduce the climatological mean states and seasonal cycle of the major climate system quantities,including the surface air temperature,precipitation,and the equatorial thermocline.The long-term trend of air temperature and precipitation is also reasonably captured by CAMS-CSM.There are still some biases in the model that need further improvement.This paper can help the users to better understand the performance and the datasets of CAMS-CSM.
基金Supported by National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(2013CB035500) National Natural Science Foundation of China(61233004,61221003,61074061)+1 种基金 International Cooperation Program of Shanghai Science and Technology Commission (12230709600) the Higher Education Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of China(20120073130006)
基金supported in part by National Science Foundation of China(41075055)
文摘The calibration of paleoclimate proxies is one of the key problems in the study of paleoclimate at present. Historical documentary records of climate are suitable for calibration on dating and the climatic implication of the proxy data in a climatological sense. A test calibration on correcting the Delingha tree ring precipitation series using Chinese historical documentary records shows that among the 44 extreme dry cases in 1401 1950 AD, 42 cases (or 95.5%) are believable. Thus the long series of Delingha rings-denoted precipitation is highly reliable. Another test to validate the monsoon intensity proxy data based on the Zhanjiang Huguangyan sediments using historical records indicates that the years of Lake Maar Ti content series-designated winter monsoon intensities are entirely opposite to historical documents- depicted years of harsh winters in 800-900 AD. As a result, serious doubt is raised about the climatic implication of this paleo-monsoon proxy series.
文摘In Chinese language studies, both “The Textual Research on Historical Documents” and “The Comparative Study of Historical Data” are traditional in methodology and they both deserve being treasured, passed on, and further developed. It will certainly do harm to the development of academic research if any of the two methods is given unreasonable priority. The author claims that the best or one of the best methodologies of the historical study of Chinese language is the combination of the two, hence a new interpretation of “The Double-proof Method”. Meanwhile, this essay is also an attempt to put forward “The Law of Quan-ma and Gui-mei” in Chinese language studies, in which the author believes that it is not advisable to either treat Gui-mei as Quan-ma or vice versa in linguistic research. It is crucial for us to respect always the language facts first, which is considered the very soul of linguistics.
基金Acknowledgments This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41271427) and the National Key Technology R&D Program (Grant No. 2012BAH27B05).
文摘Keriya River, one of the ancient Four Green Corridors in the Tarim Basin, recording the changes of climate-environment and the ancient Silk Road of the region. According to the archaeological data, historical materials and paleoclimates information, its eeo-environment and climate have taken great changes since the 1.09 Ma B.P, especially during the recent 2,000 years, many famous ancient cities having been abandoned and the south route of the Silk Road has been moved southward. This study illustrates the capability of the remote sensing data (radar data, topographic data and optical images) and historical materials, in mapping the ancient drainage networks. A major paleodrainage system of Keriya River has linked the Kunlun Mountains to the Tienshan Mountains, possibly as far back as the early Pleistocene. The Keriya River will have important implications for not only the understanding of the paleoenvironments and paleoclimates of Tarim Basin from the early Pleistocene to the Holocene, but also the changes of the Silk Road.
文摘Decision-making of investors at the stock exchange can be based on the fundamental indicators of stocks, on the technical indicators, or can exist as a combination of these two methods. The paper gives emphasis to the domain of technical analysis. In the broader sense the technical analysis enables the dynamics of the expected future values of the shares estimation. This can be performed on the basis of the data on historical trends of the revenues, profits and other indicators from the balance sheet, but also on the basis of historical data on changes in the values of the shares. Companies generally belong to the different sectors that have different presumptions of development resulting from the global market trends, technology and other characteristic. Processing of historical data values of the outstanding shares of the Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE) is origination of this research. Investors are interested to know the estimation of future returns for the stocks as well as the size of the risk associated with the expected returns. Research task in this paper is finding the optimal portfolio at the ZSE based on the concept of dominant portfolio by Markowitz approach. The portfolio is created by solving non-linear programming problem using the common software tools. The results of obtained optimal portfolios contain relevant conclusions about the specifics of the shares as well as the characteristics of the industrial sectors but also provide a further knowledge about diverse sectors treatment at the stock exchange in a multi-year period.
基金supported by the China Meteorological Administration for the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY(QX)201406015)the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX)
文摘Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is to use an ensemble forecast; however, this is very time-consuming. The historical sampling approach is an alternative way to generate the ensemble,by picking some snapshots from historical forecast series.With this approach, many ensemble-based assimilation schemes can be used in a deterministic forecast environment. Furthermore, considering the time that it saves, the method has the potential for operational application.However, the historical sampling approach carries with it a special kind of sampling error because, in a historical forecast, the way to integrate the ensemble members is different from the way to integrate the initial conditions at the analysis time(i.e., forcing and lateral boundary condition differences, and ‘warm start' or ‘cold start' differences). This study analyzes the results of an experiment with the Global Regional Assimilation Prediction System-Global Forecast System(GRAPES-GFS), to evaluate how the different integration configurations influence the historical sampling error for global models. The results show that the sampling error is dominated by diurnal cycle patterns as a result of the radiance forcing difference.Although the RMSEs of the sampling error are small, in view of the correlation coefficients of the perturbed ensemble, the sampling error for some variables on some levels(e.g., low-level temperature and humidity, stratospheric temperature and geopotential height and humidity), is non-negligible. The results suggest some caution must be applied, and advice taken, when using the historical sampling approach.
基金supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation(NNSF)of China(Nos.61803079,61890924,61991404)in part by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.N2108006)in part by Liaoning Revitalization Talents Program(No.XLYC1907087)。
文摘The development of vehicle-to-everything and cloud computing has brought new opportunities and challenges to the automobile industry.In this paper,a commuter vehicle demand torque prediction method based on historical vehicle speed information is proposed,which uses machine learning to predict and analyze vehicle demand torque.Firstly,the big data of vehicle driving is collected,and the driving data is cleaned and features extracted based on road information.Then,the vehicle longitudinal driving dynamics model is established.Next,the vehicle simulation simulator is established based on the longitudinal driving dynamics model of the vehicle,and the driving torque of the vehicle is obtained.Finally,the travel is divided into several accelerationcruise-deceleration road pairs for analysis,and the vehicle demand torque is predicted by BP neural network and Gaussian process regression.