Research on Value Evaluation Method of Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Composite Real Options

Venture capital investments are characterized by high input,high yield,and high risk.Due to the complexity of the market environment,stage-by-stage investment is becoming increasingly important.Traditional evaluation methods like comparison,proportion,maturity,internal rate of return,scenario analysis,decision trees,and net present value cannot fully consider the uncertainty and stage characteristics of the project.The fuzzy real options method addresses this by combining real option theory,fuzzy number theory,and composite option theory to provide a more accurate and objective evaluation of Public-Private Partnership(PPP)projects.It effectively considers the interaction of options and the ambiguity of project parameters,making it a valuable tool for project evaluation in the context of venture capital investment.

Real option pricing method for R&D investment under changing risk-free rate and discount rate

The polynomial spline model, which belongs to the static term structure model of interest rates, is studied. Every cash flow of the project is discounted relatively accurately by obtaining the discount rate from the static term structure model of interest rates. A simple basic model, which belongs to the dynamic term structure model, is studied, and the option pricing formula under changing risk-free rates is obtained by bringing it into the option pricing formula. Both dynamic and static term structure models are estimated by the use of the data of buy-back rates and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and an example is given to compare the differences between the traditional method and the method under the changes in the interest rates and the discount rates.

Reserve estimation of an open pit mine under price uncertainty by real option approach

Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.

Integration of real options into short-term mine planning and production scheduling

Commodity prices have fallen sharply due to the global financial crisis. This has adversely affected the viability of some mining projects, including leading to the possibility of bankruptcy for some companies. These price falls reflect uncertainties and risks associated with mining projects. In recent years, much work has been published related to the application of real options pricing theory to value life-of-mine plans in response to long term financial uncertainty and risk. However, there are uncertainties and risks associated with medium/short-term mining operations. Real options theory can also be applied to tactical decisions involving uncertainties and risks. This paper will investigate the application of real options in the mining industry and present a methodology developed at University of Queensland, Australia, for integrating real options into medium/short-term mine planning and production scheduling. A case study will demonstrate the validity and usefulness of the methodology and techniques developed.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

Real Option and Valuation of CNOOC Ltd

This paper introduces a real option approach to valuation of oil companies and uses the real option pricing model to value CNOOC Ltd. at the time of its IPO. The empirical result shows that the option pricing value of CNOOC Ltd. exceeds its IPO price at about 21%.

Franchise ownership redirection:real options perspective

Background:For over 40 years,the franchise ownership redirection hypothesis has attracted the attention of many scholars.This study,differing from previous ones,proposes an alternative approach for this hypothesis using a real options framework with the extension of agency theory.Method:The real options model is built using the least square Monte Carlo method,where the franchisor’s decision to franchise is perceived as a deferred investment while maintaining the right of future acquisition.Result:Tested using monte carlo simulation based hypothetical case,the model shows a different result from classical real options call model.This is mainly due to franchise contractual arrangement,where royalty fee lower the threshold of acquisition cost in converting the franchise outlet to company owned.Conclusion:The aim of this study is to create an analytical framework that helps a franchisor decide whether or not toacquire and convert a franchise unit to a company-owned unit at a certain point in time,analyzing the choice as a deferment of investment.The franchisors that faces the opportunity to optimize profit by converting the franchise unit to a company-owned unit should acknowledge it as real options thus negotiate the terms with their franchisees.

Real Options and Govemment Supports to Infrastructure Investments： An Empirical Study

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between various forms of real options in infrastructure projects and the types and levels of government supports to the infrastructure investments. It analyzes the common real options and real options-based strategic investments and aligns them with the common types of public-private partnership （PPP） infrastructure projects. It then develops models to show that the real options incorporated into the different types of PPP infrastructure projects affect the level of direct government cash supports to the projects and hence the viabilities of such projects. The paper however shows that the relationship between the embedded real options and viabilities of infrastructure projects can be influenced by such factors as contract period and percentage of private sector contributions to the projects.

The Real Option Game Model to the Technology Innovation Investment Strategy

The real option game theory is a new effective method to analyze the project investment decision containing uncertain factors in the incomplete competition circumstance. Based on the introduction of the development of real option game method, this paper puts forward a real option game model to research on the investment opportunity and investment strategy of technology innovation involved two competitors. The varies of the value of project bring on three kinds of game equilibrium, that is the corporate investment equilibrium strategy, the leader ＆ follower investment equilibrium strategy and the corporate delay equilibrium strategy.

Application of the Option Game Theory to the Real Estate Enterprise Investment Decision

One of the remarkable characteristics of the current development of China's national economy is the increase of uncertainties, which makes the traditional method more and more unsuitable for the current economic development in the real estate investment process. Based on the option game theory, the investment decision making of real estate is analyzed here, the investment optimization mathematic model established, and Nash Equilibrium discussed. Through case studies, we analyze the application of game option in the real estate, which is put under symmetrical duopoly. The conclusions will contribute to both the theory on and practice of the present investment in the real estate enterprise.

R & D project's investment evaluation based on real option and its value at risk

The authors looked upon it as real options and applied the VaR(Value at Risk) method to the evaluation of its risk value based on the analysis of R & D project investment characteristics,and advanced the evaluation model of the project’s return and risk according to financial theories.This paper expounded the two dimension evaluation model of project,and divided it into five decision making regions.

Trinomial tree model of the real options approach used in mining investment price forecast and analysis

In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.

Using Real Option to Frame E-commerce Investment Problem

Due to great business potential in E-commerce, the traditional method is not an appropriate technique to make investment decision. Consequently, a new approach--Real Option should be applied. Based on the characteristics of investment in E-commerce, this paper analyzes the function and advantages of the Real Option and the differences between the NPV and Real Option.

The Application of Expand Option of Real Options in Human Resources Evaluation

The traditional models of evaluating human resources are mainly based upon the discounted value of future payment, but these models fail to take the employment risk into account, and often neglect the uncertainty and underes- timate the human resource value. This paper first introduces the option theory, and then presents human resources as the real commodity for the call option. Second, concerning the choices for the uncertainty decision, the decisions of delay- ing the employment of the human resources, expanding or deducing the scale of human resources, giving up or chang- ing human resources, etc., are made to deal with the future uncertainties appropriately. This will cause the investment to be more beneficial or to reduce the loss. Finally, the expand option theory of real options is used to evaluate the value of reinvestment in human resources, and the expand option theory could be provided as a reference for management im- plementation and decision-making in human resources.

Real Option and Strategic Decision Making of Duopoly

Other than traditional valuation methods, the real option approach captures the flexibility inherent in investment decisions to make the optimal decision of a finn in isolation from its competitors. In reality, however, the actions or decisions of competing fn-ms （practical or potential） often affect each other＇s investment opportunity. The value of the project for the firms is assumed to follow a Geometric Brownian motion, and the model combines game theory and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. This paper characterizes the resulting Nash equilibrium under different assumptions on the information that the firms have each other＇s valuation for the project.

The Impacts of Carbon Sequestration on Oil Production Projects Decision-Making： A Real Option Valuation Approach

A traditional real option model is applied to a simulation of an oil production project. This analysis includes a carbon sequestration structure cost and possible revenues from carbon credit markets. The evaluation focuses on the determination of an optimal timing for the investment in different scenarios, regarding the volatility of the uncertain variable, oil prices. Historical prices data from different moments are used to estimate different prices uncertainty scenarios and its impacts on the decision making on building a carbon sequestration structure. The results are compared between a real option model to the ones obtained using the traditional net present value evaluation. Trigger point of investments are defined for different scenarios with and without carbon sequestration. There is also an analysis of the effects on decision-making in different scenarios for carbon market prices. It is perceived an important difference in the decision making considering the different methods of economic analysis. The real option model is a fundamental valuation tool in periods of high price volatility and higher sunk costs added to a project such as the carbon sequestration structure. Greenhouse gas projects demand high oil prices, positive market trend expectation and volatility.

A novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics through options pricing analysis

We propose a novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics using option pricing theory.The problem of valuing the inherent real optionality a coal producer has when mining and processing thermal coal is modelled as pricing spread options of three assets under the stochastic volatility model.We derive a three-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform(“FFT”)lower bound approximation to value the inherent real optionality and for robustness check,we compare the semi-analytical pricing accuracy with the Monte Carlo simulation.Model parameters are estimated from the historical monthly data,and stochastic volatility parameters are obtained by matching the Kurtosis of the low-ash diff data to the Kurtosis of the stochastic volatility process which is assumed to follow Cox–Ingersoll–Ross(“CIR”)model.

Valuing options to renew at future market value:the case of commercial property leases

In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.

CEO职业视野与企业创新——基于实物期权与企业行为的理论视角

在创新驱动的背景下,CEO职业视野影响企业战略选择的灵活性,从而使得企业之间具有差异化的创新战略。利用2009—2019年沪深A股上市公司的数据,基于实物期权理论和企业行为理论,实证检验了CEO职业视野对企业创新的影响机制。研究发现,CEO职业视野越长远,企业创新水平越高,尤其表现为企业发明专利申请数的显著增加;当企业面临严峻内部经营困境(历史期望落差大)和高外部动态环境压力(经济政策不确定性高)时,会强化具有长远职业视野的CEO对企业创新的正向影响。异质性分析表明,在处于成长期企业和非国企的样本中上述关系更为明显。

福建省林业碳汇项目价值评估及金融产品定价——基于实物期权理论

文章结合林业碳汇投资规模大、回收周期长、碳汇产品定价难等特征,基于实物期权定价理论,利用Black-Scholes模型,对福建省碳汇造林项目价值和碳汇交易价格进行实证研究。结果表明,采用常规的净现值法计算出的项目价值与引入实物期权评价模型计算出的项目价值运用灰色预测模型与2022年福建省林业碳汇成交均价相比较,林业碳汇造林项目价值及碳汇产品交易价格均被严重低估,基于实物期权理论的评估方法对林业碳汇产品进行定价更加科学合理。为进一步丰富林业碳汇金属产品交易体系,提高碳汇市场活跃度,文章提出对策建议:①深化林权制度改革,激励林农营林造林;②科学核算投资回报,提高经营者积极性;③创新碳金融产品,规避价格波动风险;④引入多元交易主体,促进碳汇流通交易。