Cyclical fluctuations of real estate investment across regions in urban China

Taking the concrete conditions of each region into full consideration, the Chinese real estate market is divided into an eastern market, a central market and a western market. For each market, the autoregressive integrated moving average （ARMA） model is established and spectral analysis is carded out to better understand the changes in the real estate markets in each region. The results show the investment levels and several kinds of cycles within each market. The level of real estate investment （LREI）in the eastern region is the higiaest, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years; the LREI in the central region is in the middle, and the short cycle of investment is about 2 to 3 years; the LREI in the western region has been rapidly increasing in recent years, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years. Real estate investment in each area has reached a peak and completed a middle-cycle movement after a period of sustained recession and an upsurge process, which has taken about 9 to 10 years.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

Real Options and Govemment Supports to Infrastructure Investments： An Empirical Study

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between various forms of real options in infrastructure projects and the types and levels of government supports to the infrastructure investments. It analyzes the common real options and real options-based strategic investments and aligns them with the common types of public-private partnership （PPP） infrastructure projects. It then develops models to show that the real options incorporated into the different types of PPP infrastructure projects affect the level of direct government cash supports to the projects and hence the viabilities of such projects. The paper however shows that the relationship between the embedded real options and viabilities of infrastructure projects can be influenced by such factors as contract period and percentage of private sector contributions to the projects.

A group consensus model for evaluating real estate investment alternatives

Background:Individual decision-making largely influences the effectiveness of decisions and benefits of investments.Methods:In this article,a consensus model for group decision-making(GDM),based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),is developed to gather group ideas and analyze the real estate investment environment under multi-criteria problems.Twelve evaluation procedures of the developed model,which increase the convergence of the opinions of multiple experts,are proposed.Results:An empirical case about the real estate investment environment is applied to certify the feasibility of this developed model.Conclusions:the evaluation procedures have been fully observed with several rounds of discussions,and have manifested the experiences of experts.Besides,the evaluation results are in accordance with real-world situations,which demonstrates that our developed model is a feasible analysis tool for real estate investors to obtain better profits and lower risk.

Probabilistic Evaluation for Commercial Real Estate Investments

Throughout the decision-making process, prudent investors must address questions regarding the probabilities of future profit gain. In this study, the probability-based discounted cash flow （DCF） method with net present value （NPV） as the indicator was adopted as an analysis tool. A probabilistic framework for measuring exceeding probability of annual rate of return on a commercial real estate investment under a specified holding period was developed. Based on the framework, the relation curves of annual rate of return versus the corresponding exceeding probability of return for available financing schemes were constructed. These curves were used as a tool to prioritize the schemes and inform decision-making. An example case is presented to demonstrate the decision-making process developed in this study. Through the proposed process, investors are given basic information on the return, probability that profit gain will occur, and feasibility of financial schemes for commercial real estate investments.

Application of the Option Game Theory to the Real Estate Enterprise Investment Decision

One of the remarkable characteristics of the current development of China's national economy is the increase of uncertainties, which makes the traditional method more and more unsuitable for the current economic development in the real estate investment process. Based on the option game theory, the investment decision making of real estate is analyzed here, the investment optimization mathematic model established, and Nash Equilibrium discussed. Through case studies, we analyze the application of game option in the real estate, which is put under symmetrical duopoly. The conclusions will contribute to both the theory on and practice of the present investment in the real estate enterprise.

Using Real Option to Frame E-commerce Investment Problem

Due to great business potential in E-commerce, the traditional method is not an appropriate technique to make investment decision. Consequently, a new approach--Real Option should be applied. Based on the characteristics of investment in E-commerce, this paper analyzes the function and advantages of the Real Option and the differences between the NPV and Real Option.

Application of PPC Model Based on RAGA in Real Estate Investment Decision-Making

According to the size of the projector function to evaluate the merits of the program, Projection Pursuit method is applied to real estate investment decision-making by using the real coding based on Accelerating Genetic Algorithm (RAGA) to optimize the Projection Pursuit Classification (PPC) process and a wide range of indicators value was projected linearly. The results are reasonable and verified with an example. At the same time, the subjective of the target weight can be avoided. It provides decision-makers with comprehensive information on all the indicators of new ideas and new

Overheated Investment in Real Estate Inhibits Innovation:Verification and Analysis in China's Case

Whether rapid real estate investment growth inhibits China's innovation is a critical question for China's economic sustainability. Based on China's provincial panel data and using land supply as an instrumental variable for real estate investment growth, we arrived at the following findings after effectively controlling endogenous factors that could lead to estimation errors. First of all, the faster real estate investment grows in a province, the lower the growth rates of innovation and R&D spending and invention patent authorizations will be in the province, an indication that real estate directly inhibits innovation in China. Such inhibition is particularly pronounced in the industrial sectors. Secondly, in the context of rampant real estate investment, the biased loan maturity structure of China's financial system in favor of the real estate industry further inhibits innovation. This paper has verified the existence of the direct effect of real estate investment growth on regional innovation and its indirect effect on regional innovation through the biased long maturity structure of the financial system. The empirical findings of this paper provide practical policy implications for China to strike a balance between real estate development and an innovation-driven development strategy.

Analysis of Real estate investment structure optimization based on investment sources

As the investment structure of economic structure has a direct impact on the industrial structure, economic structure and thus become the focus of research. However, due to the impact of the traditional planned economy system, for a long time, our focus on the expansion of investment scale, optimize investment structure and neglect, leading to low efficiency of investment, private investment is difficult to effectively start, optimizing economic structure adjustment difficulties and other problems. The paper has got a conclusion that the target of optimization of real estate investment and ways based on the status of investment of real estate, and integration analysis for real estate investment sources.

IT Project Evaluation and Investment Decision

There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.

Research of relationship between uncertainty and investment

This study focuses on revealing the relationship between uncertainty and investment probability through real option model involving investment critical trigger and project earning. Use of Matlab software on the experimental results showing that project earning volatility influences investment probability, led the authors to conclude that this notion is not always correct, as increasing uncertainty should have an inhibiting effect on investment, and that in certain situation, increasing uncertainty actually increases the investment probability and so, should have positive impact on investment.

Design of the contingent royalty rate as related to the type of investment

This study investigates the design of the royalty rate in a first-price auction across three types of investments:incremental and lumpy with or without an exogenously given intensity.A bidder’s investment cost comprises private information.This,together with the stochastic evolution of the price of the output generated from the auctioned project,precludes the seller from setting the exact dates of investment with the winner.However,the seller can set the royalty rate to equate the winner’s royalty payment with the winner’s information rent so that the winner acts as if to maximize the seller’s revenue.We derive two main conclusions.First,compared with the case in which investment is lumpy with an exogenously given intensity,the seller can set a lower royalty rate on incremental investment because she can collect additional royalty payments from the winner,who has the option to later expand capacity.Second,the impact of output price uncertainty on the optimal royalty rate for the three types of investments exhibits two different patterns.When investment is either incremental or lumpy with an exogenously given intensity,greater output price uncertainty reduces the royalty rate.When investment is lumpy with variable intensity,greater output uncertainty raises the royalty rate.Our results imply that auctioneers may charge differential royalty rates for different types of investments.

Investment in Generation of Photovoltaic Solar Energy: A Fezsibility Study with Flexibility and Uncertainty

The objective of this research will be to calculate the feasibility of investing in a solar energy generation project through the development of a methodology that allows the capture of environmental uncertainties by improving decision making. The article presents a comparative study of the feasibility analysis of investment in a solar mini solar energy for a Shopping, considering a regime of certainty and uncertainty. The assumed stochastic variables were energy tariff and price of solar panels. The trajectories were simulated with the binomial approach that combined resulted in a quadratic diagram. The applied methodology presented the best recommendation and the option to wait was the most valuable. The exchange of the energy obtained from LIGHT by own generation of energy with solar photovoltaic source will be viable for the manager since it observes the behavior of the variables over time and follows the rules of optimal decision.

Corporation Strategic Investment on Behavioral Finance

The traditional DCF approach ignoring the managerial flexibility of the decision makers often underestimates the value of project value. This paper not only takes into account the uncertainty of investment and the irreversibility of the sunk cost, but also takes the competitors＇ erode to the project value into it. Relax the EMH and the rationality of the investor＇s hypothesis, integrate the behavioral finance theory and the game option, and construct the valuing frame based on the behavioral finance and game option theory to make a scientific and effective project decision-making approach.

数字普惠金融对企业数字化转型的影响——基于A股上市公司的研究

数字普惠金融对企业数字化发挥引导和促转作用。本文将数字普惠金融2013~2023年市级数据与中国上市企业数据进行匹配,深入研究数字普惠金融对企业数字化转型的影响。研究发现:数字普惠金融的发展对企业数字化转型有显著驱动作用,二者之间的非线性影响存在门槛效应,这种作用在非国有企业、小型企业和高科技企业中更为明显。进一步研究二者之间的传导机制,发现数字普惠金融通过3个渠道助力企业数字化转型:缓解融资约束、优化金融错配、加大研发投入。据此,本文提出了数字普惠金融服务实体经济促进企业数字化转型的政策建议。

Real Interest Rates,Real Wages and Economic Restructuring—Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)

On the basis of research conducted by Long and Plosser(1983),this paper carries out an in-depth analysis on the relationship between real interest rates,real wage,and macro-economy and economic structure by simulating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model and comes to the following conclusions:(1) Increasing the level of real interest rates will expand the share of consumption in GDP,improve the macroeconomic structure,and promote steady economic development;(2) Increasing the level of real wages will enhance economic growth but will not change the economic structure of consumption and investments;(3) Increasing wages will enhance economic growth and expand its share in national income;(4) Increasing wages will not lower output level but will be favorable to the improvement of economic structure.Therefore,this paper argues for interest rates liberalization to achieve long-term,steady economic development in China.

Real Option and Strategic Decision Making of Duopoly

Other than traditional valuation methods, the real option approach captures the flexibility inherent in investment decisions to make the optimal decision of a finn in isolation from its competitors. In reality, however, the actions or decisions of competing fn-ms （practical or potential） often affect each other＇s investment opportunity. The value of the project for the firms is assumed to follow a Geometric Brownian motion, and the model combines game theory and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. This paper characterizes the resulting Nash equilibrium under different assumptions on the information that the firms have each other＇s valuation for the project.

A Review of Domestic and Foreign Research on Real Estate Financial Management

With the tightening of house purchase policies in recent years, the introduction of financial and land restriction policies, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, real estate bombshells are common. Real estate is in the critical stage of transformation and upgrading, and industrial development is facing dire challenges and pressure for survival. As an important part of enterprise management, financial management is directly related to the success or failure of enterprise development. Facing the financial risks emerging in the financial management of the real estate industry at this stage, this review begins from financial management personnel training, investment calculation management, budget management, and asset management in the effort of optimizing the real estate financial management operating mechanism under the new situation and ensuring the healthy and stable development of real estate enterprises, while maintaining core competitiveness.

营商环境与企业“脱实向虚”

基于A股上市公司数据,探讨在“以国内大循环为主体,推动国内国际双循环相互促进”背景下的营商环境改善对企业“脱虚向实”的影响及其内在作用机制。研究发现,地区营商环境越好,企业的金融资产投资水平越低;基于“行政审批中心设立”的准自然实验,进一步证实营商环境的改善显著降低了企业的金融资产持有水平。机制检验发现,这一效应的产生是通过降低企业经营风险和提高实体投资效益两条路径实现的。拓展性研究发现,营商环境改善在降低企业金融资产投资的同时,提高了企业对研发的投资;这些效应在中小企业和非国有企业中尤为显著。上述结果表明营商环境的改善有助于激励企业“脱虚向实”,这在政策层面意味着改善营商环境可能是解决经济“脱实向虚”和民营企业、中小企业纾困发展两大问题的一剂良药。