Research on the Impact of Market Concern for Real Estate Policy on Housing Prices: Evidence from Internet Search and Hedonic Price Theory

To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.

Evaluation on the Process and Effects of Monetary Policies to Chinese Real Estate Market

The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.

The analysis of the influence factors of China＇s real estate prices

The real estate market is an ilnportant part of China＇s socialist market economy. Real estate price xs not only a profound role on the level of consumption of the residents, but a profound role on the steady development of the banking sector-based financial sector. Real estate price have a significant impact not only on the development ofmacroeconomic stability, but on the safety of financial system. Chinese economy is currently on the period of transition from investment and export promotion of economic growth mode to a demand-led growth, it is an important role to China＇s economic growth for sustained and healthy development of real estate market.

Policy spillover and regional linkage characteristics of the real estate market in China's urban agglomerations

The main purpose of this study is to determine the spillover effect of real estate regulatory policies released by core cities on the surrounding cities in major urban agglomerations based on regional linkage characteristics of China's real estate market.In this study,real estate transaction data of 157 cities were selected from 11 major urban agglomerations.Agglomeration's housing transaction volatility and spillover effect caused by the core city's regulatory policies were simulated by integrating spatial and temporal analysis model,event analysis,and symbolic time series analysis.The findings showed that(1)the regional linkage of the real estate market in the Harbin-Changchun and Middle-South Liaoning,Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and West Side of the Straits agglomerations were remarkably tight and the core cities'policy spillover effect was significant,of which the house purchase limitation and credit limitation policies had the widest influence;(2)the regional linkage of the real estate market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration,Shandong Peninsula,Guanzhong Plain,and Chengdu-Chongqing agglomerations was relatively weaker,but the core cities'policies of mar-ket regulation and taxation had certain spillover effect;(3)there were significant differ-ences in the spillover effects of different types of policies in different urban agglomerations;(4)generally,the core cities'policy spillover often reduced the changing characteristics of the real estate market and made it more ordered with more certainty in the whole agglomeration,with the exception of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,West Side of the Straits,and Chengdu-Chongqing agglomerations.

Policy Framework for the Development of Real Estate and the Real Estate Industry in China

Compared with the situation in other countries,therole played by China’s real estate and real estate industry inincreasing municipal financial resources has the followingobviously different characteristics:In most countries,land in urban areas is privatelyowned,and so are buildings.Therefore,real estate revenuescome mainly through taxation.In China,however,urbanland as well as a greater part of the urban building stock

Relationships of the Monetary Policy, Stock Market and Real Investment in China Based on Markov-Switching Model

This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.

External Dependent Economy and Structural Real Estate Bubbles in China

This study explores the relationship between external dependent economic structure, surplus monetary liquidity and real estate bubbles in China. Employing monthly data from 28 Chinese provinces over the period 2004-2005, we test whether real estate bubbles are caused by structural surplus monetary liquidity, ccontrolling other possible factors. Our empirical findings show that the growth of private savings in the banking sector, as an index of surplus monetary liquidity, ferments real estate bubbles regardless of the different development level across the 28 provinces.

企业“脱实向虚”:未雨绸缪还是投机逐利——基于宏观视角的实证研究

近年来,中国实体企业“脱实向虚”的现象引起各界高度关注,已成为当前经济发展过程中面临的一项严峻挑战。企业“脱实向虚”的动机究竟是预防性储蓄还是投机逐利,国内外学者尚未达成共识。基于宏观视角,利用2009—2021年沪深A股上市公司的季度数据,通过实证分析宏观经济变化对中国实体企业金融资产配置的影响,对这一问题作出解答。结果表明:总体来看,在经济下行、货币政策紧缩以及资本市场萎靡时期,企业金融资产持有总量占比下降,且金融资产内部配置也受到影响,即稳健型金融资产占总金融资产比重上升,而风险型金融资产占比下降;分行业和地区看,这一抑制现象在东部地区和民营企业中更为显著。进一步分析发现,相较于弱融资约束企业,强融资约束企业的金融资产持有对宏观经济变化更为敏感,这表明中国实体企业金融化行为的主要动机是预防性储蓄,而非投机逐利。

人口老龄化对货币政策调控房地产价格效果的影响研究

文章基于1999—2022年中国宏观经济数据,通过构建时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)分析货币政策对于房地产价格的调控效果。实证结果表明数量型货币政策与价格型货币政策在中长期对房地产价格调节均明显衰减,同时价格型货币政策的调节效果具有显著不确定性。利用2000—2021年中国省级面板数据构建系统广义矩估计模型(System-GMM)分析人口老龄化对货币政策调控房地产价格效果的影响。结果表明人口老龄化对于数量型货币政策调控房地产价格的效果产生负面影响,但对价格型货币政策在调控房地产价格方面的影响并不显著。在人口老龄化时代背景下,为中央银行改进货币政策,提高货币政策实施效果,以应对人口老龄化并促进房地产市场稳步发展提供参考,具有重要理论与现实意义。

限购政策对我国房地产上市企业杠杆率的影响

完善住房市场体系是国民经济中的重要议题,限购政策作为政府稳定和调节房地产市场的主要手段,对房地产企业以及住房市场体系建设均有重要而深远的影响.利用2008—2013年与2015—2021年上市房地产上市企业的相关数据,通过构建强度双重差分模型实证分析了两轮限购政策对房地产上市企业杠杆率的影响及其作用路径.结果表明:限购政策显著降低了房地产上市企业的杠杆率,但第二轮限购政策的效果不显著;对债务期限结构进行区分后,发现第一轮限购政策对房地产上市企业短期杠杆率的抑制作用更加明显;异质性分析表明:限购政策显著降低了行政级别最高的直辖市房地产上市企业的杠杆率,且对非国有房地产上市企业的影响更为显著;经济后果检验表明:限购政策推动了房地产上市企业去杠杆的同时,也抑制了房地产上市企业“脱实向虚”,降低了房地产上市企业的债务违约风险.

美国是如何应对次贷危机的?

“次贷危机”后美国政府出台了一系列措施,比较成功地化解了危机。他山之石,可以攻玉,美国应对“次贷危机”的举措为我国应对当下的房地产问题提供了有价值的借鉴。本文在简要介绍危机产生的原因、过程和经济后果的基础上,着重介绍和评述美国应对房地产危机的关键举措,包括问题资产救助计划、金融救援计划、非常规货币政策、直接救助金融机构、金融监管体系改革。以期能从中获得经验教训,服务于监管部门的政策制定,更好地防范与化解中国面临的房地产风险。

房地产债务扩张与货币政策有效性下降:理论及实证

目前中国经济面临的一个重大挑战是房地产企业的高负债率和居民部门因长期房贷负担而引起的需求疲软,这两大因素的共同作用导致货币政策效果减弱。本文基于多部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,探讨了房地产企业债务扩张和居民部门住房债务扩张对货币政策有效性的影响。模型的模拟结果显示,这两大因素均会削弱货币政策效果,其潜在传导机制包括信贷挤压效应和影子银行扩张替代效应。基于理论分析的结果,本文运用状态依存的局部投影方法进行了实证分析,证实了房地产企业债务扩张和居民部门住房债务扩张确实会削弱货币政策效果。此外,本文还验证了传导机制的存在。在广义的“脱实向虚”的背景下,本文的研究可以为近年来货币政策有效性下降的现象提供新的解释,并为控制房地产相关债务规模的必要性提供新的证据。

住房租赁金融发展现状、存在问题与对策研究

中央金融工作会议提出,促进金融与房地产良性循环,加快保障性住房等“三大工程”建设,构建房地产发展新模式。基于我国房地产发展新趋势,以金融支持住房租赁市场供给侧结构性改革为根本,深入探讨我国住房租赁金融发展情况。研究发现:近年来我国加大政策支持力度,推动住房租赁金融的加速发展,在传统信贷、债券、资产证券化产品及股权投资等方面进行了积极探索和实践,对促进住房租赁市场发展起到了一定的支撑作用。但受住房租赁市场低市场化结构、低回报率特性和低迷发展环境等因素影响,我国住房租赁金融发展存在规模小、金融机构参与积极性不高、金融创新不足和金融服务效能不畅等问题,住房租赁市场与金融市场的良性循环有待提升。建议加强顶层设计、强化激励措施、加快金融创新、优化配套政策,通过建立健全的住房租赁金融支持体系,促进住房租赁市场稳健发展。

什么样的长效机制政策组合促进房地产市场平稳健康发展——基于NCA和fsQCA的实证分析

什么样的政策组合促进房地产市场平稳健康发展是房地产长效机制研究的重要问题。使用NCA和fsQCA方法,从中央和地方两个层级分析了房地产长效机制的政策组态。研究发现:(1)房地产长效机制的单一政策与工具,不构成“稳房价、稳地价、稳预期”目标的必要条件;(2)中央层级的政策组合重在产业主导下的稳定逻辑,旨在为房地产业平稳健康发展塑造稳定的产业发展环境;其中,4种政策组合可以实现房价稳定,包括分别依托收入分配与立法的考核目标与货币政策驱动型、立法驱动型、财政货币政策驱动型;3种政策组合可以实现地价稳定,包括依托立法的财政货币政策驱动型、改革逻辑下的考核与收入驱动型、依托收入分配的财政驱动型;(3)地方层级的政策组合重在结构主导逻辑,所有政策组态表现出明显的结构政策主导的逻辑特征;其中,4种政策组合可以实现房价稳定,均为财税土地驱动型,分别依托住房制度、信贷政策、住房制度和信贷政策、宏观审慎政策;5种政策组合可以实现地价稳定,包括依托宏观审慎的财税驱动型、依托土地供给的信贷财税驱动型、依托财税信贷的住房制度驱动型、依托财税信贷和宏观审慎的住房税收驱动型、依托财税信贷和土地供给的住房税收驱动型。研究为我国中央和地方政府进一步完善房地产长效机制,提升政策组合效率,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展提供了依据。

LTV政策实施与银行信贷结构调整:理论模型与中国证据

本文以贷款价值比(Loan-to-Value,LTV)工具为例,基于一个扩展的DeYoung等(2015)银行信贷组合模型(DGTWmodel),并利用中国上市商业银行的信贷数据,深入研究了房地产宏观审慎政策对商业银行信贷结构的影响。结果表明:①LTV政策的实施,会降低家庭住房部门的新增信贷规模和信贷余额在总信贷中的比重,也会影响其他部门的信贷规模及在总信贷中的比重,但影响程度与该部门和家庭住房部门的信贷损失间相关系数(进而与部门间的产业关联性)有关;②相对于非繁荣期,房地产繁荣时期的LTV政策实施,对家庭住房信贷占比的影响较弱;③相对于政策收紧,LTV政策的放松会更大幅度地提升房地产信贷比重。本文的结论有助于深化理解房地产宏观审慎政策效果和优化现有政策及工具组合。

房地产价格泡沫与货币政策调控

为了探讨货币政策对房地产价格泡沫的有效性,首先较为深入地研究了房地产价格泡沫形成的宏观机理,在此基础上根据中国房地产市场现阶段的发展特点,构建了一个小型的联立方程模型。研究的主要结果为:信贷手段可以直接地影响房地产市场中的需求与供给,对房地产市场的调控应该以信贷政策为主,而当房地产市场出现过热势头尤其是泡沫极度膨胀时,应辅之以货币供应量的控制;外汇储备对商品房销售额具有较高的弹性并且影响非常迅速,应提高外资进入房地产市场的门槛;紧缩货币供应量在抑制房地产价格泡沫的同时也作用于实体经济,应在政策实施的成本与所带来收益的比较中选择最优的货币政策。

中国房地产市场调控效果分析及房地产健康发展的建议

文章总结了近年来中央的房地产调控政策及政策对房地产市场的影响,分析了调控政策的内在缺陷及调控乏力的主要原因。并借鉴了国外发达工业国家房地产市场管理的经验,从法律体系的完善、住房信息系统的建立、科学的税制设计、有效的住房保障、对土地和房产闲置的打击、公众的参与、资本投资渠道的多元化、城镇化的方向、小产权房的解禁等多个角度对促进中国房地产市场的健康、可持续发展提出了建议。

房地产价格与货币政策调控研究——基于贝叶斯估计的动态随机一般均衡模型

房地产价格高涨是近年来中国货币政策调控面临的新问题。通过构建并估计含有金融部门、房地产生产部门以及对银行信贷附加房地产抵押限制的动态随机一般均衡模型,剖析了货币政策与房地产价格之间的作用机制。结果表明,中国央行在2003-2012年的实践中已将房地产价格纳入到货币政策调控的反应规则中;同时,在货币政策调控的基础上,配合使用降低贷款价值比等宏观审慎政策,可以有效降低金融系统的风险,提升调控政策稳定经济的效果。

影子银行、货币政策与房地产市场

基于2002至2014年的季度数据,本文通过构建结构向量自回归模型实证考察了影子银行对房地产市场及货币政策实施效果的影响机制与作用效果。实证研究发现:影子银行规模的上升促进了房价的抬升及房地产投资额的扩大,扩大了社会信贷供给,降低了利率水平;进一步的反事实模拟分析还发现影子银行抑制了货币政策对房地产市场的调控效果,削弱了房价和房地产投资规模对紧缩型货币政策的响应程度。

货币政策影响房地产价格的区域差异研究

文章选取健康水平、教育水平、生活水平和社会环境水平等4个方面的指标,采用层次聚类分析法将我国31个省市自治区划分为3类不同的区域,并选取1999～2009年全国和不同区域的年度数据建立有效的面板数据模型,探讨货币政策对房地产价格影响的区域差异效应。结果表明,货币政策对各区域房地产价格的影响存在显著差异。表现为高度发达地区的房地产价格不受货币政策的影响;发达地区贷款利率对房地产价格存在显著影响;信贷规模和存款准备金率对欠发达地区的房地产价格的影响显著。