Research on Value Evaluation Method of Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Composite Real Options

Venture capital investments are characterized by high input,high yield,and high risk.Due to the complexity of the market environment,stage-by-stage investment is becoming increasingly important.Traditional evaluation methods like comparison,proportion,maturity,internal rate of return,scenario analysis,decision trees,and net present value cannot fully consider the uncertainty and stage characteristics of the project.The fuzzy real options method addresses this by combining real option theory,fuzzy number theory,and composite option theory to provide a more accurate and objective evaluation of Public-Private Partnership(PPP)projects.It effectively considers the interaction of options and the ambiguity of project parameters,making it a valuable tool for project evaluation in the context of venture capital investment.

Franchise ownership redirection:real options perspective

Background:For over 40 years,the franchise ownership redirection hypothesis has attracted the attention of many scholars.This study,differing from previous ones,proposes an alternative approach for this hypothesis using a real options framework with the extension of agency theory.Method:The real options model is built using the least square Monte Carlo method,where the franchisor’s decision to franchise is perceived as a deferred investment while maintaining the right of future acquisition.Result:Tested using monte carlo simulation based hypothetical case,the model shows a different result from classical real options call model.This is mainly due to franchise contractual arrangement,where royalty fee lower the threshold of acquisition cost in converting the franchise outlet to company owned.Conclusion:The aim of this study is to create an analytical framework that helps a franchisor decide whether or not toacquire and convert a franchise unit to a company-owned unit at a certain point in time,analyzing the choice as a deferment of investment.The franchisors that faces the opportunity to optimize profit by converting the franchise unit to a company-owned unit should acknowledge it as real options thus negotiate the terms with their franchisees.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects ofendogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We firstdevelop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise andaggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typicalfull-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist acrossfirms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering ofexercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoffexternalities. We also find some surpising but interesting results such as having more information isnot necessarily better.

Cost-benefit comparison of carbon capture,utilization,and storage retrofitted to different thermal power plants in China based on real options approach

A trinomial tree model based on a real options approach was developed to evaluate the investment decisions on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofitted to the three main types of thermal power plants in China under the same power generation and CO2 emissions levels.The plant types included pulverized coal(PC),integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC),and natural gas combined cycle(NGCC)plants.We take into account a subsidy policy consistent with the 45Q tax credit of the U.S.,as well as uncertainty factors,such as carbon price,technological progress,CO_(2) geological storage paths,oil price,and electricity price.The results showed that the investment benefit of ordinary NGCC power plants is 93.04 million USD.This provides greater economic advantages than the other two plant types as their investment benefit is negative if the captured CO_(2) was used for enhanced water recovery(EWR),even if 45Q subsidies are provided.Compared with NGCC+CCUS power plants,PC+CCUS and IGCC+CCUS power plants have more advantages in terms of economic benefits and emission reduction.The 45Q subsidy policy reduced the critical carbon price,which determines the decision to invest or not,by 30.14 USDt^(-1) for the PC and IGCC power plants and by 15.24 USDt^(-1) for the NGCC power plants.Nevertheless,only when the subsidy reaches at least 71.84 USDt^(-1) and the period limit is canceled can all three types of power plants be motivated to invest in CCUS and used the capture CO_(2) for EWR.Overall,the government should focus on the application of CCUS in coal-fired power plants(in addition to developing gas power generation),especially when CO_(2) is used for enhanced oil recovery(EOR).The government could introduce fiscal policies,such as 45Q or stronger,to stimulate CCUS technology development in China.

A novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics through options pricing analysis

We propose a novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics using option pricing theory.The problem of valuing the inherent real optionality a coal producer has when mining and processing thermal coal is modelled as pricing spread options of three assets under the stochastic volatility model.We derive a three-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform(“FFT”)lower bound approximation to value the inherent real optionality and for robustness check,we compare the semi-analytical pricing accuracy with the Monte Carlo simulation.Model parameters are estimated from the historical monthly data,and stochastic volatility parameters are obtained by matching the Kurtosis of the low-ash diff data to the Kurtosis of the stochastic volatility process which is assumed to follow Cox–Ingersoll–Ross(“CIR”)model.

Valuing options to renew at future market value:the case of commercial property leases

In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.

Real Option and Valuation of CNOOC Ltd

This paper introduces a real option approach to valuation of oil companies and uses the real option pricing model to value CNOOC Ltd. at the time of its IPO. The empirical result shows that the option pricing value of CNOOC Ltd. exceeds its IPO price at about 21%.

Design of the contingent royalty rate as related to the type of investment

This study investigates the design of the royalty rate in a first-price auction across three types of investments:incremental and lumpy with or without an exogenously given intensity.A bidder’s investment cost comprises private information.This,together with the stochastic evolution of the price of the output generated from the auctioned project,precludes the seller from setting the exact dates of investment with the winner.However,the seller can set the royalty rate to equate the winner’s royalty payment with the winner’s information rent so that the winner acts as if to maximize the seller’s revenue.We derive two main conclusions.First,compared with the case in which investment is lumpy with an exogenously given intensity,the seller can set a lower royalty rate on incremental investment because she can collect additional royalty payments from the winner,who has the option to later expand capacity.Second,the impact of output price uncertainty on the optimal royalty rate for the three types of investments exhibits two different patterns.When investment is either incremental or lumpy with an exogenously given intensity,greater output price uncertainty reduces the royalty rate.When investment is lumpy with variable intensity,greater output uncertainty raises the royalty rate.Our results imply that auctioneers may charge differential royalty rates for different types of investments.

Investment in Generation of Photovoltaic Solar Energy: A Fezsibility Study with Flexibility and Uncertainty

The objective of this research will be to calculate the feasibility of investing in a solar energy generation project through the development of a methodology that allows the capture of environmental uncertainties by improving decision making. The article presents a comparative study of the feasibility analysis of investment in a solar mini solar energy for a Shopping, considering a regime of certainty and uncertainty. The assumed stochastic variables were energy tariff and price of solar panels. The trajectories were simulated with the binomial approach that combined resulted in a quadratic diagram. The applied methodology presented the best recommendation and the option to wait was the most valuable. The exchange of the energy obtained from LIGHT by own generation of energy with solar photovoltaic source will be viable for the manager since it observes the behavior of the variables over time and follows the rules of optimal decision.

How time-inconsistent preferences influence venture capital exit decisions?A new perspective for grandstanding

Considering that the assumption of time consistency does not adequately reveal the mechanisms of exit decisions of venture capital(VC),this study proposes two kinds of time-inconsistent preferences(i.e.,time-flow inconsistency and time-point incon-sistency)to advance research in this field.Time-flow inconsistency is in line with the previous time inconsistency literature,while time-point inconsistency is rooted in the VC fund’s finite lifespan.Based on the assumption about the strategies guiding future behaviors,we consider four types of venture capitalists:time-consistent,time-point-inconsistent,naïve,and sophisticated venture capitalists,of which the latter three are time-inconsistent.We derive and compare the exit thresholds of these four types of venture capitalists.The main results include:(1)time-inconsistent preferences acceler-ate the exits of venture capitalists;(2)the closer the VC funds expiry dates are,t`he more likely time-inconsistent venture capitalists are to accelerate their exits;and(3)future selves caused by time-flow inconsistency weaken the effect of time-point inconsist-ency.Our study provides a behavioral explanation for the empirical fact of young VCs’grandstanding.

Valuation of the flexibility in decision-making for revamping installations―A case from fertilizer plants

This paper puts forward a valuation model for the flexibility of revamping urea plants based on the substitutability of switching between the internationally accepted fertilizer feedstock fuel oil and natural gas. The paper first builds a stochastic mean-reversion model for fuel oil prices and natural gas prices respectively, then estimates and tests the parameters using the fuel oil and natural gas prices data from the U.S. market. This paper also conducts a sensitivity analysis with important parameters. The results show that the real option method can be applied successfully to evaluate the flexibility in decision- making for revamping installations in fertilizer plants or other similar plants.

HETEROGENEOUS INFORMATION ARRIVAL AND R&D OPTION PRICING

The paper models the arrival of heterogeneous information during R&D stages as a doubly stochastic Poisson process(DSPP). The new product market introduction is considered as a timing option(an American perpetual option). Investment in R&D can be thought of as option on an option(a compound option). This paper derives an analytic approximation valuation formula for the R&D option, and demonstrates that the accounts for heterogeneous information arrival may reduce the pricing biases. This way, the gap between real option theory and the practice of decision making with respect to investment in R&D is diminished.

IMPACT OF OPERATING COSTS ON INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN NEW TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION WITH A FURTHER NEW TECHNOLOGY ANTICIPATED

The adoption of new technologies often represents a crucial component of firms＇ investment decisions. This paper studies a dynamic duopoly model in which two firms compete in adoption of current technology with a further new technology anticipated. Here it is assumed that the operating costs are not zero which has more explanatory power of the real world. There exist three kinds of equilibria that may occur in adoption of current technology, which mainly depends on the level of operating costs and the first-move advantage. It shows that the faster technological substitution or innovation encourages the leader to invest earlier while induces the follower to invest later. Furthermore,like the investment costs,with the increase of operating costs the follower tends to invest later while the leader tends to invest earlier ,the investment thresholds are more sensitive to the change of operating costs than that of investment costs.

Relationship between environment policy and technical transformation:industry pollution control in Three Gorges Reservoir

Ecological objective promotes local government who is in a reservoir area adopting new environmental policies which encourage firms to save energy and reduce emissions.Based on real option theory,we characterized the arrival of new environmental policy as a Poisson jump process.Under the situation that neither the policy arrival time nor contents can be determined,with the real option theory,we focused on problems for firms to decide best investment timing and scale,provided the cumulative probability distribution function of investment timing,and gave a numerical analysis.By analyzing the relationship between policy and investment decision,we found a perverse result that the high subsidy does not always encourage investment all the time,which can be a valuable reference for government to control industry pollution and make reasonable policies.

Real Option—A New Approachin the Evaluation of TelecomInvest ment Projects

This paper gives a new method into the evaluating system of teleeom investment projects, i.e. Real Option. This may overcome the defects resulted from employing Net Present Value （NPV）, which is nova used in the evaluation of telecom projects. A theoretical analysis of Real Option is provided, followed by an example of telecom investment project to illustrate the differences between the two methods.

Real option-based optimization for financial incentive allocation in infrastructure projects under publicprivate partnerships

Financial incentives that stimulate energy investments under public-private partnerships are considered scarce public resources,which require deliberate allocation to the most economically justified projects to maximize the social benefits.This study aims to solve the financial incentive allocation problem through a real option-based nonlinear integer programming approach.Real option theory is leveraged to determine the optimal timing and the corresponding option value of providing financial incentives.The ambiguity in the evolution of social benefits,the decision-maker’s attitude toward ambiguity,and the uncertainty in social benefits and incentive costs are all considered.Incentives are offered to the project portfolio that generates the maximum total option value.The project portfolio selection is formulated as a stochastic knapsack problem with random option values in the objective flinction and random incentive costs in the probabilistic budget constraint.The linear probabilistic budget constraint is subsequently transformed into a nonlinear deterministic one.Finally,the integer non-linear programming problem is solved,and the optimality gap is computed to assess the quality of the optimal solution.A case study is presented to illustrate how the limited financial incentives can be optimally allocated under uncertainty and ambiguity,which demonstrates the efficacy of the proposed method.

IT APPLICATIONS PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT UNDER BUSINESS AND IMPLEMENTATION UNCERTAINTY

Corporations need to improve business processes in order to enhance velocity and service levels while reducing their processing costs and differentiating themselves in the face of competition. The levitation of importance beyond support roles has raised IT investment decisions to high priority in chief executive officers＇ agendas. Corporate planning groups as well as lines of business are increasingly applying techniques of IT applications portfolio management in a more systematic fashion to improve decision-making and resource-allocation processes. Recent advances in software engineering and IT service delivery methodologies have achieved the logical separation of business functions from implementation. This separation has made a new breed of innovative IT project possible with a new project risk structure; the adjustment of portfolio management techniques is appropriate. We present an integrated portfolio management model so that the corporation can focus on organic growth through sources at both the department and top management levels. The research gives clear advice as to how top management can seek economic growth by selecting an entrepreneurial strategic posture, implying a strong risk-taking propensity. By integrating a risk-return model and risk-tolerance paradigm to cope with today＇s risk structure, overall capabilities can improve the decision process and the corporation＇s performance as well. The application of the integrated technique to a Japanese manufacturing firm is described.

PRICING FOR CORPORATE PROPERTY RIGHTS TRANSFER WITH STOCHASTIC MARKETS

This paper employs the real option theory to develop a pricing model for the transfer of property rights.We list the conditions for the good,intermediate and bad firms respectively,and work out the closed-form solution to the equilibrium transfer price,the optimal transfer timing.Using the comparative static analysis,we find that for good firms the transfer price of the target is increasing in its capital.The higher the capital of the target owns,the faster it will be transferred.For intermediate and bad firms,similar conclusions can be derived.The larger gap between the acquirer＇s size and market power and those of the target,the lower the transfer triggered price.The transfer price goes up as the capital ratio of the acquirer over the target diminishes,while it is decreasing in the amount of the capital the target owns.