In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investm...In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.展开更多
A method of combining dynamic simulation with real-time control was proposed to fit the randomness and uncertainty in the high arch dam construction process. The mathematical logic model of high arch dam construction ...A method of combining dynamic simulation with real-time control was proposed to fit the randomness and uncertainty in the high arch dam construction process. The mathematical logic model of high arch dam construction process was established. By combining dynamic construction simulation with schedule analysis, the process of construction schedule forecasting and analysis based on dynamic simulation was studied. The process of real-time schedule control was constructed and some measures for dynamic adjustment and control of construction schedule were provided. A system developed with the method is utilized in a being constructed hydroelectric project located at the Yellow River in northwest China, which can make the pouring plan of the dam in the next stage (a month, quarter or year) to guide the practical construction. The application result shows that the system provides an effective technical support for the construction and management of the dam.展开更多
The performance and reliability of structural components are greatly influenced by the presence of any abnormality in them.To this purpose,structural health monitoring(SHM)is recognized as a necessary tool to ensure t...The performance and reliability of structural components are greatly influenced by the presence of any abnormality in them.To this purpose,structural health monitoring(SHM)is recognized as a necessary tool to ensure the safety precautions and efficiency of both mechanical and civil infrastructures.Till now,most of the previous work has emphasized the functioning of several SHM techniques and systematic changes in SHM execution.However,there exist insufficient data in the literature regarding the patent-based technological developments in the SHM research domain which might be a useful source of detailed information for worldwide research institutes.To address this research gap,a method based on the Co-Operative Patent Classification(CPC)codes is proposed in the current study.The proposed method includes the patent analysis of SHM in terms of its global publication trend and technology-based applications.This analysis is performed using patent database search tools,namely,IncoPat and Espacenet.The period ranging from 2005 to 2019 is selected to retrieve the required patent documents.A new approach termed as Patents’value is utilized to investigate the technological impact of a patent in the form of forward citations,technical stability,and scope of protection.The identification of emerging SHM techniques and forecasting of vacant technology is also part of current research work.The research results have revealed the increasing trend in the number of published patents each year related to various SHM technologies.In this regard,China,the United States,and South Korea are notified as to the major depositor countries,respectively.Hence,mapping of patent data in this research is an effort to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method to demonstrate the development trends and dynamic inventions over the time in SHM research domain to achieve the optimal damage inspections of various mechanical components.展开更多
文摘In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50539120)National Basic Research Program of China("973"Program,No. 2007 CB714101)+1 种基金National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China(No.50525927)National Natural Science Founda-tion of China(No.50579045)
文摘A method of combining dynamic simulation with real-time control was proposed to fit the randomness and uncertainty in the high arch dam construction process. The mathematical logic model of high arch dam construction process was established. By combining dynamic construction simulation with schedule analysis, the process of construction schedule forecasting and analysis based on dynamic simulation was studied. The process of real-time schedule control was constructed and some measures for dynamic adjustment and control of construction schedule were provided. A system developed with the method is utilized in a being constructed hydroelectric project located at the Yellow River in northwest China, which can make the pouring plan of the dam in the next stage (a month, quarter or year) to guide the practical construction. The application result shows that the system provides an effective technical support for the construction and management of the dam.
文摘The performance and reliability of structural components are greatly influenced by the presence of any abnormality in them.To this purpose,structural health monitoring(SHM)is recognized as a necessary tool to ensure the safety precautions and efficiency of both mechanical and civil infrastructures.Till now,most of the previous work has emphasized the functioning of several SHM techniques and systematic changes in SHM execution.However,there exist insufficient data in the literature regarding the patent-based technological developments in the SHM research domain which might be a useful source of detailed information for worldwide research institutes.To address this research gap,a method based on the Co-Operative Patent Classification(CPC)codes is proposed in the current study.The proposed method includes the patent analysis of SHM in terms of its global publication trend and technology-based applications.This analysis is performed using patent database search tools,namely,IncoPat and Espacenet.The period ranging from 2005 to 2019 is selected to retrieve the required patent documents.A new approach termed as Patents’value is utilized to investigate the technological impact of a patent in the form of forward citations,technical stability,and scope of protection.The identification of emerging SHM techniques and forecasting of vacant technology is also part of current research work.The research results have revealed the increasing trend in the number of published patents each year related to various SHM technologies.In this regard,China,the United States,and South Korea are notified as to the major depositor countries,respectively.Hence,mapping of patent data in this research is an effort to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method to demonstrate the development trends and dynamic inventions over the time in SHM research domain to achieve the optimal damage inspections of various mechanical components.
