A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD

Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.

What is the Most Effective Method of Error Correction in L2 Writing?

The efficacy of error correction and various kinds of correction approaches is one of the key issues in second language writing faced by both teachers and researchers. The current paper reviews the definition of error correction and examines the different views on whether error correction in L2 writing should be corrected. In particular, the paper discusses and analyses the three common correction methods: direct correction, peer feedback and indirect correction. Teachers are encouraged to weigh and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these methods according to the current literature, employ the most beneficial error correction method in L2 writing, and adapt its suitability to their teaching context.

Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction

In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model, Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.

Tooth surface error correction of hypoid gears machined by duplex helical method

In this work,synchronous cutting of concave and convex surfaces was achieved using the duplex helical method for the hypoid gear,and the problem of tooth surface error correction was studied.First,the mathematical model of the hypoid gears machined by the duplex helical method was established.Second,the coordinates of discrete points on the tooth surface were obtained by measurement center,and the normal errors of the discrete points were calculated.Third,a tooth surface error correction model is established,and the tooth surface error was corrected using the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy and least square method.Finally,grinding experiments were carried out on the machining parameters obtained by Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy,which had a better effect on tooth surface error correction than the least square method.After the tooth surface error is corrected,the maximum absolute error is reduced from 30.9μm before correction to 6.8μm,the root mean square of the concave error is reduced from 15.1 to 2.1μm,the root mean square of the convex error is reduced from 10.8 to 1.8μm,and the sum of squared errors of the concave and convex surfaces was reduced from 15471 to 358μm^(2).It is verified that the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm with trust region strategy has a good accuracy for the tooth surface error correction of hypoid gear machined by duplex helical method.

Error Correction in Permittivity Measurement of High Dielectric Constant Materials Based on Cavity Perturbation Method

The purpose of this paper is to reduce the error when measuring high dielectric constant materials.In this paper,the reason why the error introduced is analyzed firstly.Then,with HFSS,the method of choosing the size of cavity and the dimension of dielectric materials is proposed.And several error correction curves are provided for measuring high dielectric constant materials.Finally,the experiment is conducted to validate the feasibility of our analysis.

Errors and Correction of Precipitation Measurements in China

In order to discover the range of various errors in Chinese precipitation measurements and seek a correction method, 30 precipitation evaluation stations were set up countrywide before 1993. All the stations are reference stations in China. To seek a correction method for wind-induced error, a precipitation correction instrument called the ＂horizontal precipitation gauge＂ was devised beforehand. Field intercomparison observations regarding 29,000 precipitation events have been conducted using one pit gauge, two elevated operational gauges and one horizontal gauge at the above 30 stations. The range of precipitation measurement errors in China is obtained by analysis of intercomparison measurement results. The distribution of random errors and systematic errors in precipitation measurements are studied in this paper. A correction method, especially for wind-induced errors, is developed. The results prove that a correlation of power function exists between the precipitation amount caught by the horizontal gauge and the absolute difference of observations implemented by the operational gauge and pit gauge. The correlation coefficient is 0.99. For operational observations, precipitation correction can be carried out only by parallel observation with a horizontal precipitation gauge. The precipitation accuracy after correction approaches that of the pit gauge. The correction method developed is simple and feasible.

Accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method with a third-order correction for estimating damping in multi-DOF systems

A third-order correction was recently suggested to improve the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method in estimating the damping of single DOF systems.This paper analyzes the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method with the third-order correction in damping estimation for multi-DOF linear systems.Damping ratios in a two-DOF linear system are estimated using its displacement and acceleration frequency response curves,respectively.A wide range of important parameters that characterize the shape of these response curves are taken into account.Results show that the third-order correction may greatly improve the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method in estimating damping in a two-DOF system.In spite of this,the half-power bandwidth method may significantly overestimate the damping ratios of two-DOF systems in some cases.

Near field 3-D imaging approach for joint high-resolution imaging and phase error correction

This paper combines compressed sensing (CS) imaging theory and range migration algorithm (RMA), and then proposes a near-field three-dimensional (3-D) imaging approach for joint high-resolution imaging and phase error correction. Firstly, a sparse measurement matrix construction method based on a logistic sequence is proposed, which conducts nonlinear transformation for the determined logistic sequence, making it obey uniform distribution, then conducts sign function mapping, and generates the pseudorandom sequence with Bernoulli distribution, thus leading to good signal recovery under down-sampling and easy availability for engineering realization. Secondly, in combination with the RMA imaging approach, the dictionary with all scene information and phase error correction is constructed for CS signal recovery and error correction. Finally, the non-quadratic solution model jointing imaging and phase error correction based on regularization is built, and it is solved by two steps - the separable surrogate functionals (SSF) iterative shrinkage algorithm is adopted to realize target scattering estimate; the iteration mode is adopted for the correction of the dictionary model, so as to achieve the goal of error correction and highly-focused imaging. The proposed approach proves to be effective through numerical simulation and real measurement in anechoic chamber. The results show that, the proposed approach can realize high-resolution imaging in the case of less data; the designed measurement matrix has better non-coherence and easy availability for engineering realization. The proposed approach can effectively correct the phase error, and achieve highly-focused target image. © 2017 Beijing Institute of Aerospace Information.

An improved algorithm based on equivalent sound velocity profile method at large incident angle

With the development of ultra-wide coverage technology,multibeam echo-sounder(MBES)system has put forward higher requirements for localization accuracy and computational efficiency of ray tracing method.The classical equivalent sound speed profile(ESSP)method replaces the measured sound velocity profile(SVP)with a simple constant gradient SVP,reducing the computational workload of beam positioning.However,in deep-sea environment,the depth measurement error of this method rapidly increases from the central beam to the edge beam.By analyzing the positioning error of the ESSP method at edge beam,it is discovered that the positioning error increases monotonically with the incident angle,and the relationship between them could be expressed by polynomial function.Therefore,an error correction algorithm based on polynomial fitting is obtained.The simulation experiment conducted on an inclined seafloor shows that the proposed algorithm exhibits comparable efficiency to the original ESSP method,while significantly improving bathymetry accuracy by nearly eight times in the edge beam.

An Improved Method for Correction of Air Temperature Measured Using Different Radiation Shields

The variation of air temperature measurement errors using two different radiation shields （DTR502B Vaisala,Finland,and HYTFZ01,Huayun Tongda Satcom,China） was studied.Datasets were collected in the field at the Daxing weather station in Beijing from June 2011 to May 2012.Most air temperature values obtained with these two commonly used radiation shields were lower than the reference records obtained with the new Fiber Reinforced Polymers （FRP） Stevenson screen.In most cases,the air temperature errors when using the two devices were smaller on overcast and rainy days than on sunny days; and smaller when using the imported rather than the Chinese shield.The measured errors changed sharply at sunrise and sunset,and reached maxima at noon.Their diurnal variation characteristics were,naturally,related to changes in solar radiation.The relationships between the record errors,global radiation,and wind speed were nonlinear.An improved correction method was proposed based on the approach described by Nakamura and Mahrt （2005） （NM05）,in which the impact of the solar zenith angle （SZA） on the temperature error is considered and extreme errors due to changes in SZA can be corrected effectively.Measurement errors were reduced significantly after correction by either method for both shields.The error reduction rate using the improved correction method for the Chinese and imported shields were 3.3％ and 40.4％ higher than those using the NM05 method,respectively.

Local Influence on the Error-Correction Variable in a Cointegrated System

The concept of cointegration describes an equilibrium relationship among a set of time-varying variables, and the cointegrated relationship can be represented through an error-correction model (ECM). The error-correction variable, which represents the short-run discrepancy from the equilibrium state in a cointegrated system, plays an important role in the ECM. It is natural to ask how the error-correction mechanism works, or equivalently, how the short-run discrepancy affects the development of the cointegrated system? This paper examines the effect or local influence on the error-correction variable in an error-correction model. Following the argument of the second-order approach to local influence suggested by reference [5], we develop a diagnostic statistic to examine the local influence on the estimation of the parameter associated with the error-correction variable in an ECM. An empirical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed diagnostic. We find that the short-run discre pancy may have strong influence on the estimation of the parameter associated with the error-correction model. It is the error-correction variable that the short-run discrepancies can be incorporated through the error-correction mechanism.

基于遥测姿态变换的外测数据跟踪部位修正方法

外测数据跟踪部位修正对于飞行器飞行试验的高精度轨迹参数获取有着重要意义.提出一种基于飞行器遥测姿态数据和粗略轨迹参数的跟踪部位修正新方法,利用遥测姿态数据确定惯导平台中心与跟踪部位轨迹参数的变换关系,进而由粗略轨迹参数推算惯导平台中心与跟踪部位测距、径向速度、方位角和俯仰角的差异值,实现跟踪部位修正量的准确计算.采用误差传播法对粗略轨迹误差影响下的跟踪部位修正精度进行理论分析,验证了该修正方法在实际应用中的有效性.进一步通过仿真实验和实装实验检验了修正精度.结果表明跟踪部位修正量的计算误差远小于外测系统的精度指标要求,有重要的实际应用价值.

基于SVM-STL-LSTM的区域短期电力负荷预测研究

针对区域电力负荷的时间序列数据随机性强、预测精度低及单一模型的数据特征提取能力差等问题,提出了一种支持向量机(SVM)、STL时序分解法、长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)组合的电力负荷预测模型。该模型利用SVM对时间序列的电力负荷数据进行初始预测,并通过STL时序分解法对残差序列进行时序分解,从而提高残差序列的稳定性,减小其随机性,最后用LSTM对SVM的预测误差进行修正。试验结果证明,该方法利用误差修正可有效处理随机性强的数据,有利于预测结果的稳定性,提高预测精度。

卫星导航中电离层误差校正技术现状与发展

电离层误差严重影响着GNSS的定位精度,GPS、BDS、Galileo、GLONASS有不同的电离层误差校正方法.全文概述了电离层误差校正方法,综述了单频电离层误差校正、双频电离层误差校正及多频电离层误差校正等技术的原理与发展现状.在单频电离层误差校正技术中总结了增强系统中的电离层误差校正技术、北斗全球电离层延迟修正模型(BeiDou global ionospheric delay correction model,BDGIM)、Klobuchar模型、单频电离层误差校正技术的优化—附加国际参考电离层(international reference ionosphere,IRI)约束模型和NeQuick-G模型;在双频电离层误差校正技术中重点总结了双频消电离层误差、无电离层组合模型及PPP-RTK技术中电离层误差校正方法;在多频电离层误差校正技术中介绍了高阶项改正和地磁场建模对电离层误差校正技术的优化与改进.最后,对电离层误差校正技术及其改进方法进行了分析,总结了其发展趋势与方向.

中国夏季月际—季节平均降水动力和统计结合实时预测模型

中国夏季降水大幅度月际尺度变化往往造成极端旱涝事件交替或转折,但其月际异常会被季节平均掩盖,影响季节尺度气候预测准确度,因此亟需考虑月际气候预测,提升月际—季节尺度气候预测准确度。本文首先采用年际增量和场信息耦合型预测方法研制中国夏季6~8月月际尺度降水动力和统计结合气候预测模型,之后根据月际尺度降水预测,开展季节平均降水预测。首先,基于前期观测信息和美国第二代气候预测系统(CFSv2)预测结果,选取前期12月观测的南太平洋中高纬关键区海温、1月北极关键区海冰密集度以及CFSv2预测系统2月起报的夏季同期关键区海温作为月际尺度降水预测因子,分别研制以上具有物理意义的单预测因子预测模型,并采用奇异值分解(SVD)误差订正方法对其改进;之后,利用多因子择优集合方案,研制预测效能较高且稳定的中国160站夏季月际尺度降水动力和统计结合预测模型,进而基于月际尺度预测开展夏季季节平均气候预测。1983~2022年夏季(6~8月)中国160站逐月降水预测模型的交叉检验结果表明:逐月回报与观测降水距平百分率的时间相关系数通过90%置信水平的站点占比分别为90%,88%,82%,多年平均的空间相关系数分别为0.39、0.40和0.39,均通过99%置信水平。针对2020~2022年连续三年同样拉尼娜背景下但不同中国夏季降水形势,开展月际—季节独立回报检验,其结果显示,2020~2022年6、7、8月预测降水距平百分率的趋势异常综合检验(PS)平均分分别为75、75和70分;夏季季节平均降水的PS评分分别为72、76和73分,均高于多年业务预测平均分。由此,考虑月际异常开展季节尺度气候预测是提升月际—季节尺度气候预测准确度的一个有效途径。

基于语音信号的跨语种交互翻译机器人语义纠错方法

传统的跨语种交互翻译机器人语义纠错方法通常是单向的,效率较低,导致识别错误率较高。为此,文章提出基于语音信号的跨语种交互翻译机器人语义纠错方法。在基础语音识别的基础上,通过交互标定和特征提取来修正语义错误位置,并设计语音信号翻译机器人的语义纠错模型,采用随时间反向传播(Backpropagation Through Time,BPTT)循环训练核验方式,以确保纠错的准确性。测试结果显示,经过3个阶段测试,选定的5段语音材料的纠错识别率成功控制在10%以下,表明基于语音信号的跨语种交互翻译机器人语义纠错方法高效,具有实际应用价值。

激光跟踪仪几何结构误差标定及修正

为了提高激光跟踪仪坐标测量精度,分析了跟踪仪的几何结构误差,研究了横竖轴平移误差、横竖轴倾斜误差、激光平移误差和激光倾斜误差的标定和修正方法。利用几何分析法建立了几何结构误差模型,基于投影图像测量仪和检棒、PSD搭建了几何误差参数的标定装置,实现对几何误差的快速自动高精度标定及补偿。最后,利用误差标定实验测量出的几何误差代入误差补偿模型,与标尺的长度进行比对分析。实验结果表明:经几何误差修正后的跟踪仪坐标测量误差从13μm/m减小到4μm/m以内,测量精度约提升了9μm/m,验证了几何误差标定和修正方法的正确性,该方法可以提高激光跟踪仪的坐标测量精度。

大气折射率分布规律的建模与仿真

提高雷达探测精度的关键因素之一是对电波折射误差进行高精度的修正。针对目前大气折射率线性插值的方法导致电波射线折射率产生较大误差的情况,依据大气折射率随高度变化的规律,提出了样条插值和最小二乘结合的方法。在0~13 km高度范围内利用样条插值得到连续的折射率曲线,在9~60 km高度范围内利用最小二乘方法拟合出折射率连续的曲线。将样条插值和最小二乘拟合方法得到的折射率与分段插值的折射率、实际探测的大气折射率进行对比,证明样条插值具有较高的精度,最小二乘拟合函数具有计算简便、误差小的优点;将实际探测数据与由样条插值和最小二乘法得到的大气折射率折射误差进行比较,证明了样条插值和最小二乘法可有效提高电波折射修正精度。

数据驱动的电能计量装置电流积分法差错电量估算误差评估

为了减少电能计量装置故障期间使用电流积分法计算差错电量的计量误差,该文引入配对t检验和Bootstrap抽样方法,科学计算差错电量校正系数。首先,基于配对t检验的方法,在小样本集的基础上,检验传统电流积分法计算得到的正常时间段预估用电量与实际用电量之间是否存在显著差异;然后,利用基于滚动Bootstrap抽样的方法得到大样本数据集,计算两者比值得到预估用电量的校正系数;最后,通过计算实验验证了上述流程。结果表明,小样本配对t检验能够减少差错电量计算工作量,大样本估算能够使校正系数的估算更具可靠性,减少估算误差。

基于深度学习的语法纠错技术研究进展

语法纠错(GEC)旨在自动检测并纠正文本中的语法错误,从而提升文本的质量和可读性。文章首先总结了语法纠错技术的研究进展和主要研究成果;其次针对当前纠错任务存在的泛化能力差、高质量数据缺乏、语法错误复杂、运行速度慢等问题,分析了基于当前主流深度学习模型Transformer的优化改进方案;最后指出了当前语法纠错技术面临的挑战及可行的研究方向。