Dynamic Forecasting of Traffic Event Duration in Istanbul:A Classification Approach with Real-Time Data Integration

Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.

Effects of data smoothing and recurrent neural network(RNN)algorithms for real-time forecasting of tunnel boring machine(TBM)performance

Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk management.This study aims to use deep learning to develop real-time models for predicting the penetration rate(PR).The models are built using data from the Changsha metro project,and their performances are evaluated using unseen data from the Zhengzhou Metro project.In one-step forecast,the predicted penetration rate follows the trend of the measured penetration rate in both training and testing.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is compared with the recurrent neural network(RNN)model.The results show that univariate models,which only consider historical penetration rate itself,perform better than multivariate models that take into account multiple geological and operational parameters(GEO and OP).Next,an RNN variant combining time series of penetration rate with the last-step geological and operational parameters is developed,and it performs better than other models.A sensitivity analysis shows that the penetration rate is the most important parameter,while other parameters have a smaller impact on time series forecasting.It is also found that smoothed data are easier to predict with high accuracy.Nevertheless,over-simplified data can lose real characteristics in time series.In conclusion,the RNN variant can accurately predict the next-step penetration rate,and data smoothing is crucial in time series forecasting.This study provides practical guidance for TBM performance forecasting in practical engineering.

Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas

A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.

Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting Based on Information Management

Traffic congestions and road accidents continue to increase in industry countries. There are three basic strategies to relieve congestion. The first strategy is to increase the transportation infrastructure. However, this strategy is very expensive and can only be accomplished in the long-term. The second strategy is to limit the traffic demand or make traveling more expensive that will be strongly opposed by travelers. The third strategy is to focus on efficient and intelligent utilization of the existing transportation infrastructures. This strategy is gaining more and more attention because it’s well. Currently, the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is the most promising approach to implementing the third strategy. Various forecast schemes have been proposed to manage the traffic data. Many studies showed that the moving average schemes offered meaningful results compared to different forecast schemes. This paper considered the moving average schemes, namely, simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential moving average. Furthermore, the performance analysis of the shortterm forecast schemes will be discussed. Moreover, the real-time forecast model will consider the abnormal condition detection.

Real-Time COVID-19 Forecasting for Four States of India Using a Regression Transmission Model

Introduction: More than a million people are reported to have been infected with COVID in India, since the beginning of the pandemic. However, the epidemic is not the same across the country. Though there are state-level variations rapidly changing disease dynamics and the response has created uncertainty towards appropriate use of models to project for the future. Method: This paper aims at using a validated semi-mechanistic stochastic model to generate short term forecasts. This analysis used data available at the respective state government bulletins for four states. The analysis used a simplified transmission model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with Metropolis-Hastings updating. Results: Two weeks were used to compare the results with the actual data. The forecasted results are well within the 25th and 75th percentile of the actual cases reported by the respective states. The results indicate a reliable method for a real-time short term forecasting of COVID-19 cases. The 1st week projected interquartile range and actual;reported cases for the state of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha were (1064 - 2532) 2234, (17,503 - 50,125) 27,214, (5225 - 11,003) 9563, (2559 - 4461) 3925, respectively. Similarly, the 2nd week projected interquartile range and actual;reported cases were (1055 - 7803) 4221, (18,298 - 73,952) 31,488, (4705 - 23,224) 13,357, (2701 - 9037) 4175 respectively. Conclusion: This real-time forecast can be used as an early warning tool for projecting the changes in the epidemic in the near future triggering proactive management steps.

Electricity Price Influence Factors Analysis Using Stochastic Matrix for Real-Time Electricity Price Forecasting

Real-time electricity price( RTEP) influence factor extraction is essential to forecasting accurate power system electricity prices. At present,new electricity price forecasting models have been studied to improve predictive accuracy,ignoring the extraction and analysis of RTEP influence factors. In this study,a correlation analysis method is proposed based on stochastic matrix theory.Firstly, an augmented matrix is formulated, including RTEP influence factor data and RTEP state data. Secondly, data correlation analysis results are obtained given the statistical characteristics of source data based on stochastic matrix theory.Mean spectral radius( MSR) is used as the measure of correlativity.Finally,the proposed method is evaluated in New England electricity markets and compared with the BP neural network forecasting method. Experimental results show that the extracted index system comprehensively generalizes RTEP influence factors,which play a significant role in improving RTEP forecasting accuracy.

Eureka Webair： Web-Based Air Quality Management, Real-Time Forecasting and Emission Control Optimization

For the assessment and management of regional to local air quality, an integrated environmental management information system was built within the multi national Eureka project 3266 Webair, http：//www.ess.co.at/WEBAIR. The system combines data bases and GIS and a range of coupled models and analytical tools that address a range of typical management problems and cover several levels of nesting from regional to city level and street canyons. The main functions are to support regulatory tasks, compliance monitoring, operational forecasting and reporting, impact assessment EIA （environmental impact assessment）, SEA （strategic environmental assessment） and public information within one consistent framework. A major objective is the improvement of air quality through emission control. The integrated model system together with its shared data bases provides a reliable, consistent basis for the non-linear techno-economic and multi-criteria optimization of emission control strategies （including greenhouse gases and energy efficiency）. A real-time expert system drives, supports and monitors the autonomous and interactive operations, and provides embedded QA/QC （quality assurance/quality control） functions for reliable operations and ease of use.

基于Real-time PCR法检测乳粉中牛源性成分定量研究

基于Real-timePCR建立了乳粉中牛源性成分相对定量检测方法,并对牛的特异性引物与探针进行了特异性、灵敏度和稳定性测试。通过模拟不同浓度牛乳粉与马乳粉混合样本,根据其△Ct值的函数关系进行线性拟合进而绘制标准曲线,建立乳粉中牛源性成分的相对定量检测。结果显示,该方法的最低检测限为0.00001 mg/mL,回收率为91.11%~119.2%,组间变异系数≤0.58%、组内变异系数≤1.44%。说明该方法在特异性与稳定性上适用于乳粉中牛源性成分及含量的掺假检测。

A Deep Learning Approach for Forecasting Thunderstorm Gusts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources.In this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 h.To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts.Then,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer.The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing datasets.Finally,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods.The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h.The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.

Enhancing Deep Learning Soil Moisture Forecasting Models by Integrating Physics-based Models

Accurate soil moisture(SM)prediction is critical for understanding hydrological processes.Physics-based(PB)models exhibit large uncertainties in SM predictions arising from uncertain parameterizations and insufficient representation of land-surface processes.In addition to PB models,deep learning(DL)models have been widely used in SM predictions recently.However,few pure DL models have notably high success rates due to lacking physical information.Thus,we developed hybrid models to effectively integrate the outputs of PB models into DL models to improve SM predictions.To this end,we first developed a hybrid model based on the attention mechanism to take advantage of PB models at each forecast time scale(attention model).We further built an ensemble model that combined the advantages of different hybrid schemes(ensemble model).We utilized SM forecasts from the Global Forecast System to enhance the convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model for 1–16 days of SM predictions.The performances of the proposed hybrid models were investigated and compared with two existing hybrid models.The results showed that the attention model could leverage benefits of PB models and achieved the best predictability of drought events among the different hybrid models.Moreover,the ensemble model performed best among all hybrid models at all forecast time scales and different soil conditions.It is highlighted that the ensemble model outperformed the pure DL model over 79.5%of in situ stations for 16-day predictions.These findings suggest that our proposed hybrid models can adequately exploit the benefits of PB model outputs to aid DL models in making SM predictions.

A multifunctional shear apparatus for rocks subjected to true triaxial stress and high temperature in real-time

Deep engineering disasters,such as rockbursts and collapses,are more related to the shear slip of rock joints.A novel multifunctional device was developed to study the shear failure mechanism in rocks.Using this device,the complete shearedeformation process and long-term shear creep tests could be performed on rocks under constant normal stiffness(CNS)or constant normal loading(CNL)conditions in real-time at high temperature and true-triaxial stress.During the research and development process,five key technologies were successfully broken through:(1)the ability to perform true-triaxial compressioneshear loading tests on rock samples with high stiffness;(2)a shear box with ultra-low friction throughout the entire stress space of the rock sample during loading;(3)a control system capable of maintaining high stress for a long time and responding rapidly to the brittle fracture of a rock sample as well;(4)a refined ability to measure the volumetric deformation of rock samples subjected to true triaxial shearing;and(5)a heating system capable of maintaining uniform heating of the rock sample over a long time.By developing these technologies,loading under high true triaxial stress conditions was realized.The apparatus has a maximum normal stiffness of 1000 GPa/m and a maximum operating temperature of 300C.The differences in the surface temperature of the sample are constant to within5C.Five types of true triaxial shear tests were conducted on homogeneous sandstone to verify that the apparatus has good performance and reliability.The results show that temperature,lateral stress,normal stress and time influence the shear deformation,failure mode and strength of the sandstone.The novel apparatus can be reliably used to conduct true-triaxial shear tests on rocks subjected to high temperatures and stress.

一种基于real-time PCR技术的TTV检测方法的建立及应用

目的:本研究旨在开发一种具有更高灵敏度和特异性的TTV检测技术,为揭示TTV在多种疾病过程中的作用提供重要的技术支持。方法:为了更精确、灵敏的检测TTV,本研究分析了目前公布的所有亚型的TTV基因序列,在此基础上建立了一种基于UTR区域的real-time PCR检测方法,并与文献报道应用较为广泛的PCR检测方法进行了对比。结果:本研究建立的方法在1×10^(7)~1×10^(1) copies/μL标准品浓度范围内具有良好的线性关系,相关系数为1.000,斜率为-3.446,检测下限为1×10^(1) copies/μL。重复性试验结果显示,组内变异系数为7.22%,表明本方法重复性、稳定性较强。针对30份临床样本,使用本研究建立的real-time PCR检测方法及目前被多个研究所使用的4套引物进行对比。结果表明,本研究所建立的方法灵敏度显著高于文献中报道的4种方法(P<0.01);Sanger测序结果表明,本方法检测出的30份阳性样本均为TTV,检测特异性为100%。结论:本研究采用基于TaqMan探针的real-time PCR检测方法,检测灵敏性高、覆盖基因型范围广,尤其对于TTV病毒载量较低的情况下能够进行定量检测,对于TTV病毒的致病性及作为免疫标志物的应用提供重要的技术支持。

A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD

Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.

A Novel Hybrid Ensemble Learning Approach for Enhancing Accuracy and Sustainability in Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article presentsa novel approach for hybrid ensemble learning that is based on rigorous requirements engineering concepts.The approach finds significant parameters influencing forecasting accuracy by evaluating real-time Modern-EraRetrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data from several European Wind farms usingin-depth stakeholder research and requirements elicitation. Ensemble learning is used to develop a robust model,while a temporal convolutional network handles time-series complexities and data gaps. The ensemble-temporalneural network is enhanced by providing different input parameters including training layers, hidden and dropoutlayers along with activation and loss functions. The proposed framework is further analyzed by comparing stateof-the-art forecasting models in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE),respectively. The energy efficiency performance indicators showed that the proposed model demonstrates errorreduction percentages of approximately 16.67%, 28.57%, and 81.92% for MAE, and 38.46%, 17.65%, and 90.78%for RMSE for MERRAWind farms 1, 2, and 3, respectively, compared to other existingmethods. These quantitativeresults show the effectiveness of our proposed model with MAE values ranging from 0.0010 to 0.0156 and RMSEvalues ranging from 0.0014 to 0.0174. This work highlights the effectiveness of requirements engineering in windpower forecasting, leading to enhanced forecast accuracy and grid stability, ultimately paving the way for moresustainable energy solutions.

Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Promising Results Predict Role for Artificial Intelligence in Weather Forecasting

Artificial intelligence(AI)has already demonstrated its proficiency at difficult scientific tasks like predicting how proteins will fold and identifying new astronomical objects in masses of observational data[1].Now,recent results suggest that AI also excels at weather forecasting.For global predictions,GraphCast,an AI system developed by Google subsidiary DeepMind(London,UK),outperforms the state-of-the-art model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),providing more accurate projections of variables such as temperature and humidity 90%of the time[2,3].Other AI systems,including Pangu-Weather from the Chinese tech company Huawei(Shenzhen,China)[4],can also match or beat traditional global forecasting models.

Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.

Real-time data processing method for CO_(2) dispersion interferometer on EAST

A real-time data processing system is designed for the carbon dioxide dispersion interferometer(CO_(2)-DI)on EAST.The system utilizes the parallel and pipelining capabilities of an fieldprogrammable gate array(FPGA)to digitize and process the intensity of signals from the detector.Finally,the real-time electron density signals are exported through a digital-to-analog converter(DAC)module in the form of analog signals.The system has been successfully applied in the CO_(2)-DI system to provide low-latency electron density input to the plasma control system on EAST.Experimental results of the latest campaign with long-pulse discharges on EAST(2022–2023)demonstrate that the system can respond effectively in the case of rapid density changes,proving its reliability and accuracy for future electron density calculation.

Real-Time Intelligent Diagnosis of Co-frequency Vibration Faults in Rotating Machinery Based on Lightweight-Convolutional Neural Networks

The co-frequency vibration fault is one of the common faults in the operation of rotating equipment,and realizing the real-time diagnosis of the co-frequency vibration fault is of great significance for monitoring the health state and carrying out vibration suppression of the equipment.In engineering scenarios,co-frequency vibration faults are highlighted by rotational frequency and are difficult to identify,and existing intelligent methods require more hardware conditions and are exclusively time-consuming.Therefore,Lightweight-convolutional neural networks(LW-CNN)algorithm is proposed in this paper to achieve real-time fault diagnosis.The critical parameters are discussed and verified by simulated and experimental signals for the sliding window data augmentation method.Based on LW-CNN and data augmentation,the real-time intelligent diagnosis of co-frequency is realized.Moreover,a real-time detection method of fault diagnosis algorithm is proposed for data acquisition to fault diagnosis.It is verified by experiments that the LW-CNN and sliding window methods are used with high accuracy and real-time performance.

Better use of experience from other reservoirs for accurate production forecasting by learn-to-learn method

To assess whether a development strategy will be profitable enough,production forecasting is a crucial and difficult step in the process.The development history of other reservoirs in the same class tends to be studied to make predictions accurate.However,the permeability field,well patterns,and development regime must all be similar for two reservoirs to be considered in the same class.This results in very few available experiences from other reservoirs even though there is a lot of historical information on numerous reservoirs because it is difficult to find such similar reservoirs.This paper proposes a learn-to-learn method,which can better utilize a vast amount of historical data from various reservoirs.Intuitively,the proposed method first learns how to learn samples before directly learning rules in samples.Technically,by utilizing gradients from networks with independent parameters and copied structure in each class of reservoirs,the proposed network obtains the optimal shared initial parameters which are regarded as transferable information across different classes.Based on that,the network is able to predict future production indices for the target reservoir by only training with very limited samples collected from reservoirs in the same class.Two cases further demonstrate its superiority in accuracy to other widely-used network methods.