Rebound effect and its decomposition-an analysis based on energy types in China

Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested.However,most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy types.We compare the differences in energy saving and energy rebound between primary and secondary energy sources,and further decompose the rebound effect into production rebound part and final demand component.To do so,we add a module for rebound into a comparative state China-CGE model.We design and test two simulation scenarios using the model.In Scenario 1,all production sectors' energy efficiency of using primary energy increases by 5%.In Scenario 2,all production sectors' energy efficiency of using secondary energy increases by 5%.The results show that Scenario 2 leads to more GDP growth and more energy saving.Our scenarios show rebound effects range between 9.6% and 27.9%,and in general are higher when energy efficiency of using primary energy sources is improved.Our decomposition analysis shows that improving energy efficiency in production sectors would stimulates energy use of final demand.Indeed,the consumption side has significant contribution to rebound in secondary energy use,especially in crude oil and gas.This study reveals that improving efficiency of using secondary energy is better than improving that of primary energy,both in terms of economic impact and energy rebound.And complementary policies that prevent energy services prices from falling too much can be adopted to reduce rebound.Controlling residential energy use could also be effective in reducing rebound,this has particular implication to economies in which residential energy consumption are far from saturation.

Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effect:Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy?

The aim of this study is to examine the theoric and empirical literature about “rebound effect”. This study summarizes energy efficiency policy and programs in general and in Turkey. Also it gives defination of the “rebound effect” concept. The rebound effect is related to consumer’s tendency to consume more energy due to economic benefit from efficiency improvement. The ‘rebound effect’ is the focus of a long-running dispute of energy economics but it is very new concept in the most developing countries. In literature according to some economist gains in energy efficiency will also reduce the real per unit price of energy services and hence the consumption of energy will rise and partially offset the initial reduction in the usage of energy sources. However for others size of the rebound effect is too small to take attention. The empirical literature shows that the size of rebound effect can change from country to country and sector to sector.

The rebound effect of dematerialization and decoupling:a case of energy efficiency

The two essential terms in environmental sciences-dematerialization and decoupling-have always been controversial. This study aims to trace the evolution path on the methodologies, the evidences and the policies, and to reflect on the implications of the development. We specifically present several classical definitions so as to summarize the similarities and differences thereinafter. Several commonly used methodologies, which are employed for evaluating the levels of dematerialization and decoupling, are discussed. As expected, the empirical evidences rarely support the absolute dematerialization and decoupling, which challenge the relevant policies implemented worldwide. In this context, the rebound effect, which is regarded as the main obstacle, is necessary to be examined in the various sectors and areas. However, the results of the rebound levels are far from unanimous. This article has a further discussion on the possible direction for the inconclusive debate in a broader perspective.

Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

The enhancement of energy efficiency stands as the principal avenue for attaining energy conservation and emissions reduction objectives within the realm of road transportation.Nevertheless,it is imperative to acknowledge that these objectives may,in part or in entirety,be offset by the phenomenon known as the energy rebound effect(ERE).To quantify the long-term EREs and short-term EREs specific to China’s road transportation,this study employed panel cointegration and panel error correction models,accounting for asymmetric price effects.The findings reveal the following:The long-term EREs observed in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation range from 13%to 25%and 14%to 48%,respectively;in contrast,the short-term EREs in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation span from 36%to 41%and 3.9%to 32%,respectively.It is noteworthy that the EREs associated with road passenger transportation and road freight transportation represent a partial rebound effect,falling short of reaching the magnitude of a counterproductive backfire effect.This leads to the inference that the upsurge in energy consumption within the road transportation sector cannot be solely attributed to advancements in energy efficiency.Instead,various factors,including income levels,the scale of commodity trade,and industrial structure,exert more substantial facilitating influences.Furthermore,the escalation of fuel prices fails to dampen the demand for energy services,whether in the domain of road passenger transportation or road freight transportation.In light of these conclusions,recommendations are proffered for the formulation of energy efficiency policies pertinent to road transportation.

The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector:A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations.We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium(CGE)model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10%in the energy efficiency.We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors,namely rail,road,water,and air travel.The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes.This is particularly true for the air transportation sector,which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1%and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6%because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services.We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment.The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10%generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan,while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector.Furthermore,to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects,we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions.These included economic instruments in the form of energy,environmental,and carbon taxes,household transport consumption structure adjustments,and energy structure adjustments.This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings,emissions reduction,and economic benefits.

Energy rebound effect in China's manufacturing sector:Fresh evidence fromfirm-level data

The rebound effect refers to the phenomenon that individuals tend to consume more energy in the face of energy efficiency improvement,which reduces the expected energy-saving effect.Previous empirical studies on the rebound effect of regions and sectors do not provide microscopic evidence.To fill this gap,we use China's firmlevel data to estimate the rebound effect in China's manufacturing subsectors,providing a detailed picture of China's rebound effect across different sectors and different regions in 2001-2008.Results show that a partial rebound effect robustly appears in all industries,and the disparity between sectors is quite broad,ranging from 43.2%to 96.8%.As for the dynamic rebound effect of subsectors,most subsectors present an upward trend,whereas few subsectors show a clear downward trend.As a whole,the declined trend of the rebound effect is driven by the descent of minority sectors with high energy consumption and high energy-saving potential.In addition,we find that the disparity of the rebound effect across sectors is more significant than that across regions.

新能源回弹效应的理论逻辑、生成机理及规制取向

能源技术变革与能源效率的提升,既促进了新能源产品的推广与应用,也引致了新能源回弹效应。通过阐释新能源回弹效应的理论逻辑和生成机理,进而探讨该效应的规制取向。研究结果表明:在短期内,新能源及其产品的生产与消费可能呈现明显的回弹效应;在新能源政策的制定及其相关制度安排中,应审慎考虑新能源回弹效应的制约,建议完善新能源政策设计机制、优化新能源政策工具组合、扩大新能源消费节能减排效应。

新疆生产建设兵团农业碳排放回弹效应研究

碳排放回弹效应能够反应地区低碳减排效果。本研究基于2007-2020年间新疆生产建设兵团农业面板数据,测算由农业技术进步引起的农业碳排放回弹效应,并通过LMDI指数分析模型对农业碳排放回弹量进行影响因素分解。结果表明:1)兵团各师市农业碳排放总量峰值出现在2015年,碳排放总量变化呈现整体上升趋势;2)兵团各师市普遍存在农业碳排放回弹效应且地区差距较大,个别师市存在“回火效应”,技术减碳效果仍有提升空间;3)对兵团农业碳排放回弹量LMDI分解发现溢出效应和技术效应对农业碳排放回弹效应存在抑制作用,单产效应和面积效应对农业碳排放回弹效应存在正向驱动作用。基于此,建议兵团继续进行技术研发以增加农业要素生产效率,减少农业碳排放面积回弹效应和单产回弹效应并加快农业绿色发展。

农业能源碳排放回弹效应:时空演变及影响机制——基于农业技术进步视角

理清农业技术进步与能源碳排放回弹效应之间的关系,有助于加快中国农业绿色发展、实现“双碳”目标。基于2011—2020年的中国省际面板数据,在构建农业能源碳排放回弹效应模型的基础上,使用系统GMM模型检验农业技术进步对农业能源碳排放回弹效应的影响机制。结果表明:2012—2020年,中国农业能源碳排放回弹效应为0.9661,总体呈现部分回弹效应;当年处于部分回弹效应的省份,一至两年后转为回火效应;处于过度储存效应的省份,一至两年后呈现弱回弹效应或回火效应;不同区域农业能源碳排放回弹效应呈现下降、差异缩小的态势;农业技术进步通过提高农业能源效率、扩大农户种植规模和促进种植结构“经济化”,引致农业能源碳排放回弹效应。

绿色技术创新与碳排放效率:影响机制及回弹效应

推动绿色技术创新,加快构建绿色低碳循环发展经济体系,已成为推进减污降碳协同增效的内在要求。基于发明型与改进型绿色技术创新视角,分析绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的影响及其区域异质性,并采用中介效应模型检验其作用机理,同时,采用调节效应模型进一步探究绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的“回弹效应”。研究结果显示:首先,发明型和改进型绿色技术创新总体上均有利于提升碳排放效率,其中,改进型绿色技术创新的提升作用更大且存在显著的区域异质性;其次,环境规制和产业结构高级化在发明型与改进型绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的影响中存在部分中介效应,而城镇化则存在遮掩效应。此外,不同绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的影响存在明显的“回弹效应”,且发明型绿色技术创新对碳排放效率的“回弹效应”大于改进型绿色技术创新。

农业灌溉用水效率悖论:技术进步与反弹效应--基于京津冀面板数据的实证分析

农业节水技术被认为是提高农业用水效率、减少农业用水总量的关键途径。然而,农业技术的进步导致农业用水效率的提高一定会减少区域农业用水总量么?通过构建农业用水反弹效应模型,利用2000—2019年京津冀地区的农业生产面板数据,运用Malmquist指数测算农业技术进步增长率,进而估算京津冀地区的农业用水反弹效应。研究结果表明:(1)节水灌溉技术的使用有效减少了农业灌溉用水,京津冀三地均存在不同程度的农业用水反弹效应。北京市农业用水反弹效应最低,天津市次之,河北省最高。(2)三个地区农业用水反弹效应年际波动较为明显,大体呈现出下降趋势。(3)农业灌溉面积、耗水作物面积、农业用水管理是影响农业用水反弹效应的关键因素。据此,政府应从加大节水宣传、完善农业水权水价市场、发展基层农业用水组织等方面降低农业用水反弹效应。

我国地方政府公共服务支出“回弹效应”:机制与检验

从2003年中央政府明确提出“建立预算绩效评价体系”,到2018年强调加快建成全方位、全过程、全覆盖的预算绩效管理体系,中国的财政资金使用效益得到了显著的提升。由于预算绩效管理提质增效与健全国家公共服务制度体系紧密相关,因此财政支出效率的变化会影响地方政府的公共服务投入意愿。首先,借鉴能源回弹效应,从收入效应与替代效应两方面阐释财政支出效率影响公共服务投入规模的理论机制。其次,利用2007—2019年中国31个省份相关数据建立实证模型,分析得到地方政府公共服务支出效率和支出比重之间存在着显著的倒U型关系,即地方政府公共服务支出效率在达到一定的临界值前,支出效率提高会促进当地公共服务支出比重的增加,表现为“直接回弹效应”;而在地方政府公共服务支出效率超过这一临界点后,公共服务支出比重则会不增反减。另外,某地的经济增长预期目标越高,效率改善带来的“替代效应”会越快地超过“收入效应”,导致在一个较低的支出效率值下,支出比重随之下降,因此地方政府经济增长目标约束会对支出效率和支出比重的倒U型关系产生调节效应,说明中国公共服务支出效率的提升也并不一定会促进地方政府增加相应的财政投入,导致这种变化的原因是地方政府较强的经济竞争压力和较低的财政自主度水平。

考虑反弹效应的空调负荷可调潜力评估与控制策略研究

当前需求侧响应研究以需求侧响应发生时段为研究重点,很少关注需求侧响应后反弹效应对电网的冲击。文章提出了一种考虑反弹效应的空调负荷可调潜力评估与控制策略。首先,从统计学角度出发,选取空调负荷运行功率和室外温度两个特征,基于用户历史数据评估空调负荷的可调潜力区间。然后,以负荷历史功率在不同温度出现的频率衡量负荷可削减的难易程度,建立用户激励成本模型,并以负荷聚合商激励成本与通信成本之和最小为目标函数,建立用户挑选模型。最后,为减轻用电反弹现象对于电网的冲击,轮换选取不同用户参与需求侧响应,提出了一种考虑反弹效应的时序循环控制策略。通过美国Pecan数据集分析不同削减量下全员参与策略、增加延迟单元策略与所提的时序循环控制策略的平抑反弹效应效果,验证了所提策略的有效性。

新疆农业技术进步下农业用水反弹效应测算

【目的/意义】引入农业用水反弹效应对新疆各地区进行量化评级,研究新疆地区农业技术进步对农业用水总量和节水效果的推动影响程度,为新疆分地区农业技术节水提供改进依据。【方法/过程】基于2005—2020年新疆地区各地州面板数据,运用DEA模型测算新疆地区农业技术进步率,通过带有农业技术进步率的农业用水反弹效应结合实际情况,探究农业节水技术进步、农业用水反弹效应、农业用水总量之间关系。【结果/结论】结果表明:(1)新疆地区及各地州农业技术进步率为正值且均值大于0.9;(2)新疆地区用水反弹效应均值为0.96,农业节水技术增加了水资源利用效率减少了农业用水总量,但效果并不明显;(3)各地州反弹效应各有不同且均出现了不同程度的农业用水反弹效应,其中南疆地区反弹效应最为平均且总反弹最低,北疆地区反弹效应分布离散且出现“回火”现象,东疆地区较为平均;(4)农业技术进步对新疆各地州农业用水反弹效应影响显著。据此提出相应改进措施,包括:加强种植结构调整,实行“以水定地”差异化执行和监管措施,加快水利工程建设,推进用水分级补贴政策,因地制宜推出节水政策等。

弹体侵彻超高性能混凝土反弹效应理论初探

为了探究弹体在侵彻超高性能混凝土过程中弹体出现的反弹现象,基于空腔膨胀理论,分析了弹体从侵彻到反弹全过程的受力情况;分别以一维弹性杆弹性势能模型和一维应力波模型为理论基础,推导得到两种反弹速度的解析解,分析了影响反弹速度的物理量;通过数值模拟复现了弹体反弹现象,验证了理论模型的合理性,数值计算结果和两种解析解吻合良好。研究表明:侵彻阻力使弹体积累变形势能,侵彻结束后变形势能释放造成弹体反弹;反弹初速与着靶速度无关,与靶体材料的屈服强度和弹头形状系数等成正比,与弹体弹性模量和密度成反比。

内蒙古黄河流域工业用水效率测算与回弹效应分析

在经济下行压力加大和资源环境约束趋紧的大环境下,内蒙古对水资源的集约利用可切实推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展。构建了一个两段式工业用水效率及回弹效应研究框架模型,采用2010—2019年的面板数据测算了内蒙古黄河流域工业用水的全要素利用效率及回弹效应。结果表明:内蒙古黄河流域7个盟市的工业用水效率有较大差异且波动较大,但总体呈上升趋势;10年间内蒙古黄河流域工业用水回弹效应为0.007,节水效果显著;宏观经济环境对工业用水效率及回弹效应均有较大影响,在宏观经济环境出现重大变化时,需要同步调整工业用水节水政策。

信息通讯技术对产业碳生产率的影响机制研究

作为产业高质量发展的智能底座,ICT对产业碳生产率的影响具有多重性和复杂性。在对相关文献梳理的基础上,文章试图全面分析ICT对产业碳生产率的可能影响,构建理论框架提出使能效应和回弹效应两种影响机制,并提出一个作用于“ICT提升产业碳生产率”系统性方案,以期合理引导ICT积极发挥其使能效应,规避“碳回弹效应”,助力产业碳生产率的提升。

制造业服务化对消费侧碳反弹效应的影响研究——基于全球价值链视角

在全球价值链(GVC)背景下,从消费侧视角核算各国碳排放责任能够有效避免碳排放区域转移引起的“碳泄露”问题。本文分别采用增加值贸易法和SBM-DEA效率模型测算出制造业服务化水平和消费侧碳反弹效应,并充分考虑服务化实现路径和制造业自身异质性,建立实证模型深入探究制造业服务化对消费侧碳反弹效应的影响。基准回归结果显示,国内外制造业服务化对消费侧碳反弹效应均表现为抑制作用,其中,依托国内服务投入实现的制造业服务化比依托国外服务实现的制造业服务化转型对消费侧碳反弹的抑制效果更加明显。拓展性分析表明,处于价值链中高端环节的制造业服务化比中低端环节的制造业服务化,对消费侧反弹的抑制作用更为显著;相较于先进制造业而言,制造业服务化转型对消费侧反弹产生的积极影响更多地集中在传统制造业领域。本文可能的边际贡献在于:(1)从全球价值链视角出发测算制造业服务化和消费侧碳反弹效应,能够使得测算结果更加准确。(2)基于消费者责任原则,充分考虑服务投入差异化和制造业自身异质性,探究制造业服务化对消费侧碳反弹的影响,突破了以往文献从生产侧角度分析碳减排效果的局限,研究结果具备参考价值。

技术进步和结构调整对能源消费回弹效应的估算

我国能源消费面临着满足经济增长和降低能耗的双重压力,提高能源利用效率迫在眉睫。那么,提高能源利用效率能节约能源消费量吗?文章基于我国1992-2011年数据对我国技术进步的回弹效应进行了实证分析,结果表明,技术进步所导致的能源效率提高能节约能源消费量,但能源消费的回弹效应显著存在,我国能源消费的回弹效应介于9%-75%之间。在此基础上,本文对能源效率的回弹效应进行扩展,提出能源效率的回弹效应包括技术进步的回弹效应和结构调整的回弹效应两部分,理由是:根据现有能源效率分解方面的经验研究,能源效率提高可以分解为两种效应,一是技术进步效应;二是结构调整效应。因此,能源效率的回弹效应也可以分解为两种效应,即能源效率的回弹效应是指通过技术进步和结构调整可以提高能源效率,进而节约能源消费量,但技术进步和结构调整也会促进经济的快速增长,从而对能源产生新的需求,部分地抵消了所节约的能源。最后,基于中国1992-2011年数据的测算结果表明,结构调整的回弹效应要远大于技术进步的回弹效应,技术进步所带来的能源效率提高同样能节约能源消费量,能源消费的回弹效应也显著存在,由结构调整所带来的能源效率提高对节约能源贡献不大,不同年份中结构调整的回弹效应呈现出较大波动,绝大部分年份中的结构调整回弹效应处于两种极端情况,即大于100%或为负值。

基于技术进步的中国能源消费反弹效应——使用省际面板数据的实证检验

反弹效应是能源经济学研究的重要课题,由技术进步引起的能源消费反弹效应的大小直接关系到能源政策的实施效果。在新古典三要素生产函数的框架内,采用中国1985年～2005年28个省份的面板数据,检验了非平稳面板数据的单位根和协整关系,运用索洛余数方法计算了考察期间中国不同地区的技术进步贡献率,进而依据测算的全要素生产率来估计由技术进步引起的能源消费减量、增量和反弹效应。结果表明:①中国能源消费的反弹效应存在下降趋势,说明提升能源利用的技术水平已成为能源有效利用和节约的重要手段;②1986年～2005年中国总体的平均反弹效应为53.68%,说明不能仅将技术进步作为提高能源效率的唯一手段来解决能源约束问题,适当的能源政府管制手段是有必要的;③西部地区的反弹效应最大,其次是中部,最小的是东部,而技术进步带来的能源消费减量效应则相反,因此要彻底解决能源约束问题,需要关注和重视中国区域经济和技术进步的均衡协调发展问题。