Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an i...Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an initial probability distribution which may then be adjusted to reflect additional or new information.The trade-off between minimal computation and maximum information is examined.展开更多
Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme vol...Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme volatility over time requiring frequent updating.Pairwise judgments by the decision-maker form the basis for the simple calculations that could replace traditional revision of prior distributions.展开更多
文摘Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an initial probability distribution which may then be adjusted to reflect additional or new information.The trade-off between minimal computation and maximum information is examined.
文摘Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme volatility over time requiring frequent updating.Pairwise judgments by the decision-maker form the basis for the simple calculations that could replace traditional revision of prior distributions.
