Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system

Since the great 1303 Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8, 700 years have elapsed. To analyze the long-term seismic potential, this paper divides the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system into 5 seismogenic segments. Based on data of historical earthquakes and GPS observation, the authors estimate mean seismic-moment rates and average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for the individual segments, and fur-ther analyze relative levels of current stress cumulation on the segments based on mapping b-values along the gra-ben system by using the network seismic data for the recent over 30 years. The main result shows that the Linfen basin segment has an estimated mean seismic-moment rate of 2.211016 Nm/a to 3.031016 Nm/a, and its average recurrence interval for M=7.5 earthquake is estimated to be between 1 560 and 2 140 years. For the Ling-shi-Hongtong segment, the estimated average recurrence interval for M=8 earthquakes is between 4 300 and 5 100 years, equivalent to having a mean moment-rate of 2.581016 Nm/a to 3.101016 Nm/a. The contour map of b-values shows that the two segments of Lingshi-Hongtong and Linfen basin have been being at low or relatively low stress levels, reflecting that since the 1303 M=8 and the 1695 M=7.5 earthquake ruptures, the fault-planes strengths of the both segments have not been resumed yet. And the other two segments, the Houma and the Jiexiu-Fenyang, have relatively high stress levels, and have been already identified as potential risky segments for the coming earthquakes from the analysis combining with the estimated average recurrence intervals of earth-quakes on the both segments.

Late Quaternary Activity and Strong Earthquake Recurrence Interval along the North Segment of the Longling-Ruili Fault

According to field investigation and interpretation of remote sensing images,the north segment of the Longling-Ruili fault is a Holocene dextral strike-slip fault with a small amount of normal faulting.Based on large-scale geological mapping at some typical locations and quantitative geomorphologic deformation measurement and dating analysis,this fault is a Holocene active fault.The strike-slip rate of the Longling-Ruili fault is 2.2 ~2.5mm / a and vertical slip rate is 0.6mm /a since the late Pleistocene epoch.The strike-slip rate of the Longling-Ruili fault is 1.8~3.0mm /a and vertical slip rate is 0.5mm /a since the Holocene epoch.Based on the Poisson model,lognormal model and BPT model,the occurrence probability of strong earthquakes in 50 years is estimated to be 6.32%,0.08%and 0.05%,respectively.Then,a 1.82% probability of occurrence of characteristic earthquake for the north segment of the Longling-Ruili fault is obtained by setting a weight of 0.28,0.36 and 0.36 to the Poisson model,lognormal model and BPT model,respectively.

Earthquake-Affected Time-Space Domain, Recurrence Interval and Effective Preparation Time of Earthquakes

The study shows that earthquake-affected time-space domain (ETSD), i.e. a time-space range in which strong earthquakes are unable to occur owing to the influence of a prior earthquake occurring, shows a hyperbolic margin curve in the t(time)-r(distance) coordinate plane, which has a maximum affected radius r 0 at t=0 and a maximum influence time t 0 (i.e. the in-situ recurrence interval of earthquakes) at r=0. Based on the time-distance distributions of posterior earthquakes relative to prior ones in the regions of North China, Northwest China, Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) plateau and Southwest China, the optimized and 90%-confidence margin curves are estimated using optimization and statistical analysis methods. This indicates that the concept and method of ETSD with 3-dimension (time-distance-magnitudes) instead of those of “recurrence interval" with 1-dimension (time) or 2-dimension (time-magnitude) provides a new approach to understanding the fluctuation of seismic activities, estimating the effective earthquake-preparation time of potential hypocenters, and therefore improving the medium- and long-term prediction of strong earthquakes.

Co-Seismic Surface Rupture and Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes along Damaoyaba-Litang Segment of the Litang Fault on the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau in China

The Litang fault is a left-lateral secondary shear zone in the Sichuan-Yunnan active block that accommodates the tectonic deformation associated with the eastward extrusion of the upper crust of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on 1 : 50 000 geological mapping of active faults, the Litang fault consists of three geometric segments, the Cuopuhu, Damaoyaba, and Litang segments, in the west of Litang, which are divided by the of Haizi Mountain uplift and the wide-angle bending and branching of the fault near Jinchanggou. This study also identifies the surface rupture of the A.D. 1890 earthquake, which is distributed intermittently along the ~28 km long Damaoyaba segments and ~25 km long Litang segments. The maximum horizontal displacement is 4.1 m along Damaoyaba segments, and 4 m along Litang segments. The rupture involves typical left-lateral shear movement. The two ruptures are divided by discontinuous segments or gaps that are ~18 km long;thus, the total surface rupture is approximately 71 km long. The estimated moment magnitude was M_(w)7.3±0.1. A comprehensive analysis of data obtained from 5 trenches excavated along the Damaoyaba and Litang segments and the trench data by Xu et al.(2005) identifies age constraints of the 4 most recent paleoseimic events occurred B.C. 1468±54–1340±25, B.C. 52±25–A.D. 76±47, A.D. 1115±90, and A.D. 1890, respectively. The recurrence intervals are 1 415±80, 1 104±104, and 775±90 a, which are consistent with quasi-periodic earthquake recurrence behavior. The average recurrence interval is 1 098±112 a.

Determining the surface fault-rupture hazard zone for the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian fault zone through comprehensive analysis of surface rupture from the February 6,2023,Earthquake(Mw 7.7)

Following surface rupture observations in populated areas affected by the KahramanmaraşEarthquake(Mw 7.7)on February 6th,2023,along the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone(EAFZ),this study presents novel insights into physical criteria for delineating surface fault-rupture hazard zones(SRHZs)along ruptured strike-slip faults.To achieve this objective,three trench studies across the surface rupture were conducted on the Pazarcık segment of the EAFZ to collect field data,and earthquake recurrence intervals were interpreted using Bayesian statistics from previously conducted paleoseismological trenchings.The results of the proposed model indicate that the Pazarcık segment produced five significant surface-rupturing earthquakes in the last∼11 kyr:E1:11.13±1.74 kyr,E2:7.62±1.20 kyr,E3:5.34±1.05 kyr,E4:1.82±0.93 kyr,and E5:0.35±0.11 kyr.In addition,the recurrence intervals of destructive earthquakes on the subject in question range from 0.6 kyr to 4.8 kyr.Considering that the last significant earthquake occurred in 1513,the longest time since the most recent surface fault rupturing earthquake on this particular segment was 511 years.These results indicate that,in terms of the theoretical recurrence interval of earthquakes that can create surface ruptures on the Pazarcık segment,the period in which the February 6,2023,earthquake occurred was within the end of the expected return period.As a result,the potential for a devastating earthquake in the near future is not foreseen on the same fault.Finally,the SRHZ proposed for the Pazarcık section of Gölbaşıvillage was calculated as a 61-meter-wide offset on the fault lineament to reduce the negativities that may occur in the ruptured area in the future.It is recommended to take into account this width in the settlement of this area and nearby areas.

Study on Integrated Recurrence Behaviors of Strong Earthquakes Along Entire Active Fault Zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region, China

Based on historical earthquake data, we use statistical methods to study integrated recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes along 7 selected active fault zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that recurrences of strong earthquakes in the 7 fault zones display near-random, random and clustering behaviors. The recurrence processes are never quasi-periodic, and are neither strength-time nor time-strength dependent. The more independent segments for strong earthquake rupturing a fault zone has, the more complicated the corresponding recurrence process is. And relatively active periods and quiescent periods for earthquake activity occur alternatively. Within the active periods, the distribution of recurrence time intervals between earthquakes has relatively large discretion, and can be modelled well by a Weibull distribution. The time distribution of the quiescent periods has relatively small discretion, and can be approximately described by some distributions as the normal. Both the durations of the active periods and the numbers of strong earthquakes within the active periods vary obviously cycle by cycle, leading to the relatively active periods having never repeated quasi-periodically. Therefore, the probabilistic assessment for middle- and long-term seismic hazard for entireties of active fault zones based on data of historical strong earthquakes on the fault zones still faces difficulty.

R/S analysis of earthquake time interval

The R/S analysis method of time series was suggested by Hurst in 1965, then it was used tostudy the fractional Brownian motion(FBM) and the self--affinity of natural phenomena (MandeLbrot and Wallis, 1969a 3 Feder, 1988). In this paper, we use R/S analysis method to study thechsnges of Hurst exponent H of time interval sequences Of earthquakes with time variations for 5r%ions as follows: Wuqia (38'--41'N, 73'- 77 'E, M.>3' 5) I Tangshan (38'-41'N,116. 5'-- 119. 5'E, ML 2 3); Longling (23'- 26'N, 97'-- 100'E, ML > 3); Songpan (31'- 34'N,102. 5'- 105. 5'E, ML;3); China and its vicinity (20'- 50'N, 73'-129'E, M,>5), andmake an attempt to find features of anomalous variations of H values before the moderate strongearthquakes.

Global stability of interval recurrent neural networks

The robust global exponential stability of a class of interval recurrent neural networks（RNNs） is studied,and a new robust stability criterion is obtained in the form of linear matrix inequality.The problem of robust stability of interval RNNs is transformed into a problem of solving a class of linear matrix inequalities.Thus,the robust stability of interval RNNs can be analyzed by directly using the linear matrix inequalities（LMI） toolbox of MATLAB.Numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Late Quaternary Large Earthquakes on the Western Branch of the Xiaojiang Fault and Their Tectonic Implications

The Xiaojiang fault is a major active left-lateral fault along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau.The largest historical earthquake in Yunnan Province, with a magnitude 8 and a mean coseismic left-lateral displacement of ~ 6.9 m, occurred on the western branch of the Xiaojiang fault.Studying this fault is important in understanding current deformation and kinematic characteristics of the Tibetan Plateau.Activities and stretches have been well undertaken on the Xiaojiang fault, while paleoseismic research work is always the weak link on this fault.To investigate the paleoseismic history and large earthquake activity of the Xiaojiang fault, we opened a large trench at the northern edge of Caohaizi sag pond on the western branch of the Xiaojiang fault.Six paleoseismic events have been identified, and named E1 through E6 from the oldest to the youngest.Charcoal and woods are abundant, 20 samples were dated to constrain the ages of the paleoseismic events at 40 000–36 300 BC, 35 400–24 800 BC, 9 500 BC–AD 500, AD 390–720, AD 1120–1620 and AD 1750–present.We associate the youngest event E6 with the 1833 M8 earthquake.Events E4, E5 and E6 show a continuous record of the western strand of the Xiaojiang fault in the late Holocene, with a average recurrence interval of 370–480 yr.Large earthquake recurrence in the late Holocene is far less than the recurrence of 2000–4000 yr posed in previous studies.Thus, the seismic hazard on the Xiaojiang fault should be reevaluated.Furthermore, the irregular recurrence of large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault and other faults in the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang system, indicates the uneven southeastward extrusion of the Sichuan-Yunnan block along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau.

The Holocene Activity Evidence of the Yema River-Daxue Mountain Fault in Western Qilian Mountain

Altyn Tagh fault controls the deformation characteristics of the northern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The sinistral slip rate of the eastern segment of the fault reduces gradually where the reduction transforms into the deformation within Qilian Mountain,forming a series of thrust faults and strike-slip faults.Among them,the Yema River-Daxue Mountain fault is one of the important structural transform faults in the study area.Based on the differences of the geometrical characteristics and activities,the fault is divided into four segments,the Yema River segment,the Shibandun segment,the Liushapo segment and the Baishitougou segment,among which the former three are Holocene active faults,and the Baishitougou segment belongs to late Pleistocene fault.The excavated trenches imply a total of 6 paleoearthquake events,and at least 4 events have occurred during Holocene,whose occurrence times are 8300±700 yr BP,6605±140 yr BP,4540±350 yr BP,2098±47 yr BP,respectively.The recurrence interval is 2600±600 yr BP that is close to the lapsed time of the last one,2098±47 yr BP,which suggests that the Yema River-Daxue Mountain fault is in a high risk of major earthquakes in the future.The vertical coseismic displacements of the four Holocene paleoearthquake events are 100 cm,42 cm,40 cm and 50 cm,respectively,the horizontal coseismic displacements are 5 m,4.5-5.5 m,5-8 m and 4-5.5 m,separately,and then the reference magnitude of the paleoearthquake events is conjectured to be M7.6±0.1.

Relation Between Sudden Sedimentation and Wind Energy in Outer Channel of Huanghua Port and Its Application in Binzhou Port

Based on the analysis of ocean dynamic condition and sediment environment, conclusions can be drawn that strong wind is an essential factor influencing sudden sedimentation in outer channel. Through theoretical analysis, it changes the complex process that wind raises wave, wave tilts sediment and current transports sediment into a comprehensive factor, and obtains mathematical formula between effective wind energy and the thickness of sudden sedimentation. The parametees in this formula are determined with field data of Huanghua Port. It may be used to predict siltation thickness and volume along the channel. By analyzing and comparing the difference in ocean hydrodynamic conditions and seabed material between Huanghua Port and Binzhou Port, the proposed formula can be used to predict sudden sedimentation in Binzhou Port and the calculated results is rehable. By predicting it on different combination plans among different recurrence in- tervals, entrance locations and channel classes, it provides references for the plane design of Binzhou Port.

Surface Rupture and Coseismic Displacement of the M_S7.1 Yushu Earthquake

On April 14, 2010, a devastating earthquake measured 7.1 on the Richter scale struck Yushu county, Qinghai Province, China. Field geological investigation and remote sensing interpretation show that this earthquake generated an inverse ＂L-shaped＂ surface rupture zone, approximately 50km long. The surface rupture zone can be divided into three segments. Between the northern and middle segments of the surface rupture, there is a 16km-long segment, where no rupture was observed. The middle and the southern segments are arranged in a left-step manner, and there are right-step en echelon ruptures developed in the stepovers. The seismogenic structure is the Yushu fault, which is dominated by strike-slip with a small amount of thrust component. The earthquake results from the differential movements between the southern Qiangtang Block and northern Bayan Har Block. The earthquake recurrence interval is 185a^108a. Along an approximately 20km-long part of the Garze-Yushu fault, between the southern surface rupture of Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake and the 1896 earthquake, there is no surface rupture, its seismic risk needs further research.

Application of Brownian model in the north- western Beijing, China

The mathematic theory of Brownian passage-time model and its difference from other recurrence models such as Poisson, lognormal, gamma and Weibull, were introduced. We assessed and analyzed the earthquake probabilities of the major faults with the elapsed time much greater than the recurrence interval in the northwest region of Bei- jing (China) in 100-year by using both Brownian passage-time model and Poisson model, and concluded that the calculated results obtained from Brownian passage-time model is more reasonable.

Paleoseismic activity on Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault, Inner Mongolia

Geomorphic study on Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault, Inner Mongolia is made. Through analysis of the available data in combination with the results of predecessors studies it can be obtained that average vertical displacement rate is 0.48~0.75 mm/a along the Wujiahe segment since the late Pleistocene (14.450~22.340 ka BP) and 0.56~0.88 mm/a since the early-middle Holocene (5.570~8.830 ka BP). Analyzing paleoseismic phenomena revealed in the excavated 5 trenches in combination with the results of predecessors studies of paleoearthquakes on the fault, we determine five paleoseismic events on the Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault since 27.0 ka BP and the recurrence interval to be about 4.300~4.400 ka. A cluster of paleoearthquakes occurred probably during 8.000~9.000 ka BP and two paleoseismic events in 10.000~20.000 ka BP may be missed. A comparison between height of fault scarps and sum of displacement caused by paleoseismic events revealed in trenches, and recurrence interval of paleoseismic events obtained from average displacement rate along the fault and the disloca-tion by one event suggest that three paleoseismic events are absent in Alagaitu trench. Two paleoseismic events may be absent on the whole active fault segment.

Statistic forecast of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002, a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.

Flood Frequency Analysis at Oshun River in Asejire Dam Site, Nigeria

Flood frequency analysis procedure was performed on annual maximum discharge data of River Oshun at Iwo in Osun State, Nigeria for the period 1985 to 2002 utilizing three probability distribution models namely： Extreme EVI （value Type-l）, LN （Log normal） and LPIII （Log Pearson Type III）. The models were used to predict and compare corresponding flood discharge estimates at 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return periods. The results indicated that Extreme Value Type 1 distribution predicted discharge values ranging from 26.6 m3/s for two years to 431.8 m3/s for 200 years return periods; the Log Pearson Type III distribution predicted discharge values ranging from 127.2 m3/s for two years to 399.54 m3/s for 200 years return periods and the Log normal distribution predicted discharge values ranging from 116.2 m3/s for two years to 643.9 m3/s for 200 years return periods. From the results~ it was concluded that for lower return periods （T_〈 50 yrs） Extreme Value Type 1 and Log Pearson Type III could be used to estimate flood quantile values at the station while for higher return periods （T 〉 50 yrs） Log Normal probability distribution model which gives higher estimates could be utilized for safe design in view of the short length of discharge records used for the analysis.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Bridgetown-Barbados, Employing Subduction Interface Characteristic Earthquakes

A new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Bridgetown, Barbados, West Indies. Hazard computations have been performed using the standard Cornell-McGuire approach based on the definition of appropriate seismogenic sources and expected maximum magnitudes, the authors take into consideration the possibility of large subduction interface earthquakes of magnitude 8.0-9.0 beneath the Barbados accretionary prism via application of a characteristic model and slip rates. The analysis has been conducted using a standard logic-tree approach. Uniform hazard spectra have been calculated for the 5% of critical damping and the horizontal component of ground motion for rock site conditions setting 5 return periods （95, 475, 975, 2,475 and 4,975 years） and spectral accelerations for 34 structural periods ranging from 0 to 3 s. The disaggregation results suggest that the magnitude-distance pair that dominates the hazard yields M 7.4 and 8.6 and a distance of 42.5 km in the Interface Subduction Zone beneath Barbados for the 475 and 975 years RP （return period）, respectively. An event with an M 8.0 at a distance of 107.5 km in the Intraplate Subduction Zone is the second scenario that dominates the hazard for both 475 and 975 years RP.

A Study on the Characteristics of Anomalies and Their Dynamic Relationship before the April 14, 2010 M_S 7.1 Yushu Earthquake

The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake, but prominent anomalies were observed, such as the long and mid-term trend anomaly characterized by the seismic quiescence of Ms6. 0, MsS. 0 and Ms4.0 earthquakes, and the anomalies in precursor observation of surface water temperature in Yushu and Delingha and electromagnetic measurement in Ping＇an. There were a large number of animal behavior anomalies appearing one week before the earthquake. An M4.7 earthquake occurred 130 minutes before the main shock. In this paper, we studied the dynamic process of the Yushu earthquake preparation using the earthquake focal mechanism solutions on the Bayan Har block boundary since 1996. The results show that the Kalakunlun M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the Mani M7.5 earthquake and the Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake have the same dynamic process. Long and mid-term trend anomalies may be related to the dynamics of evolution of different earthquakes. This paper also discusses the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes, foreshock identification and precursor observation of the Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake.

Statistics of extreme events in Chinese stock markets

We investigate the impact of financial factors on daily volume recurrent time intervals in the developing Chinese stock markets. The tails of probability distribution functions（PDFs） of volume recurrent intervals behave as a power-law, and the scaling exponent decreases with the increase of stock lifetime, which are similar to those in the US stock markets, and they are typical representatives of developed markets. The difference is that the power-law exponent values remain almost the same with the changes of market capitalization, mean volume, and mean trading value, respectively. These findings enrich the results for event statistics for financial markets.

The Course of Time in the Cracking of Earth CrustCaused by Earthquake of Magnitude 8

The world,the continent and the large country at all times have similar distribution of intervals between recurrences of the great earthquakes,depending on the earthquake sequence. lt indicates that how the force source of world scale changes with time and space.