Spillover of international crude oil prices on China's refined oil wholesale prices and price forecasting:Daily-frequency data of private enterprises and local refineries

Compared with retail prices of state-owned companies used in almost all existing studies,China’s refined oil wholesale prices of private enterprises and local refineries are more affected by the market and better reflect the real supply-demand situation.For the first time,this paper applies own-monitored dailyfrequency wholesale prices of China’s private enterprises and local refineries during 2013-2020 to derive spillover effects of international crude oil prices on China’s refined oil prices through the VAR-BEKKGARCH(vector autoregression-Baba,Engle,Kraft,and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity)model,and then tries to forecast wholesale prices through the PCA-BP(principal component analysis-back propagation)neural network model.Results show that international crude oil prices have significant mean spillover and volatility spillover effects on China’s refined oil wholesale prices.Changes in crude oil prices are the Granger cause of changes in refined oil wholesale prices.With the improvement of China’s oil-pricing mechanism in 2016,the volatility spillover from the international crude oil market to China’s refined oil market gradually increases,and the BRENT price variation has an increasing impact on the refined oil wholesale price variation.The PCA-BP model could serve as a candidate tool for forecasting China’s refined oil wholesale prices.

Status of China's Refined Oil Products Consumption and Forecast on Demand During the“11th Five-Year Plan”Period

The author used two common methods in this industry, i. e. the ＂Consumption Coefficient Method＂ and the ＂Elasticity Coefficient Trend Method＂, to forecast the refined oil product demand in 2010. Through analyzing and comparing the two forecast results, it is projected that the demand for finished product oils in 2010 will be in the range of 220 to 240 million tons a year. In addition, out of concern about the total oil products consumption to exceed 600 million tons/year in 2020, the author puts forward suggestions and measures aimed at conservation of oil products and application of alternative fuels.

The Effect of Reaction Temperature, Catalyst Concentration and Alcohol Ratio in the Production of Biodiesel from Raw and Purified Castor Oil

In this study, a homogeneous alkaline catalyst was used in the production of biodiesel from raw and refined castor oil feedstock. The effect of potassium hydroxide (KOH) as a catalyst between the two feedstocks, raw and refined castor oil was compared. The transesterification technique was utilized in this study, aiming to investigate the effect of different parameters, which include the reaction temperature, methanol-to-oil mole ratio, and catalyst concentration at a constant period of 90 minutes. The result revealed the performance of the KOH catalyst on raw castor oil yielded 98.49% FAME, which was higher than the refined castor oil which yielded 97.9% FAME. The optimal conditions obtained from refined castor oil were applied to raw castor oil because of the same properties. The fuel quality of castor oil and produced biodiesel were tested for physicochemical properties.

Oil Import and Export in China

Domestic economic growth slowed down and supply exceeded demand in oil market in 2015, so the growth of refineries＂ processing volume was limited. Nevertheless, the gradual decontrol of market and the storage requirement under low oil price, crude oil imports hit a record high of 335.5 million tons, with the growth rate approximating 9%. Refined oil exports soared and imports decreased, which made China become a net refined oil exporter for the first time for 24 years, and net imports reached 6.22 million tons. Robust requirement on chemical raw materials propelled imported liquefied petroleum gas market to go on expanding. Imports exceeded 12 ,zillion tons in 2015, thus China leaped into the world＇s largest liquefied petroleum gas importer. In 2016, oil consumption growth would be kept at lower level. However, China would further decontrol crude oil import and refined oil export permits and put incremental storage capacity, into use. Therefore, crude oil imports would continue to rise up, and refined oil exports may hit a new historic high. hnported liquefied petroleum gas market will enter into a stage of stable growth after two years rapid development.

Analysis of China's Oil Imports and Exports Situation

China＇s oil import dependence had risen to 72% in 2017, while its net imports of various oil products, including crude oil, refined oil, liquefied petroleum gas （LPG） and other products, had climbed to 418.8 million tons, an increase by10.7% over 2016. China＇s crude oil import reached 420 million tons, surpassed the United States for the first time, and China had become the biggest crude oil importing country in the world. Net export of the rejqned oil, mainly the diesel, continued to increase to 22.7 million tons, as driven by the oversupply situation of the domestic market. Last year, China＇s LPG import was 18.45 million tons, but its growth was diminishing. Oil price would continue to rise in 2018, while the domestic demand of refined oil would be maintained at a lower rate of growth. However, driving by new refining capacities to be brought online, it is estimated that the crude oil import would still be increased remarkably. LPG import would reach a new high due to the growth potential and strong demand for feedstocks in the petrochemical product market.

Phytosterols in edible oil:Distribution,analysis and variation during processing

Phytosterols,which are naturally occurring in plants,have excellent nutritional and health values on lowering both the blood cholesterol level and the risk of cardiovascular diseases.Edible oils are the main source of daily intake of phytosterols,whereas the properties of phytosterols may vary a lot depending on their sources.During the processing of edible oil including refining and frying,phytosterol's content fluctuates,which influences the properties of the final product.Phytosterols and their derivatives undergo physical migration between different phases and chemical conversion during the processing,which reduces the quality and the commercial value of edible oils.Therein,the loss of phytosterols is the major concern in the process of neutralization and deodorization.In addition,oxidation and thermal degradation of phytosterols occur simultaneously during frying,which also reduces the content of phytosterols.Nevertheless,the oil matrix has a promoting or an inhibitory effect on the thermal oxidation of phytosterols.Therefore,various efforts have been devoted to analyzing and improving the remaining contents of phytosterols in edible oil.Regardless of the processing method,temperature plays an important role in the loss of phytosterols.At present,themain analysismethods of phytosterols include gas chromatography and liquid chromatography,inwhich the pretreatment of different types of phytosterols is also a crucial step.This review focused on the following topics comprehensively:(i)the distribution of phytosterols in the oil-containing plants and edible oils during the refining processing;(ii)the pretreatment and analysis methods of various phytosterols(free phytosterols,phytosteryl fatty acid esters,phytosteryl glycosides and acylated phytosteryl glycosides);(iii)the variation of phytosterols in process of esterification and oxidation,storage and so on.The study also proposed that the investigation in the loss and safety of phytosterols during processing of the vegetable oils should be proceeded further in combination with efficient and accurate chromatography methods.

Analysis of Environment for Development of Oil Refining Business in China

This articles focuses on analysis of the changing trend relating to crude supply and petroleum products demand inside China, while introducing the preliminary progress resulted from restructuring of China’s refining industry and dynamics of competition among Chinese refining enterprises. This article has made a preliminary judgment and analysis on the situation facing China’s refining industry and may serve as a reference to refiners intending to develop refining business inside China.

China's Excess Oil Refining Production Capacity in the Background of the Supply Side Structural Reform

Through analysis of the current situation and newly-increased production capacity-of the oil refining industry of China, this Paper discusses both the continuous expansion trend and the serious excess of production capacity of the oil refining industry of China. Due to the entry of the Chinese economy into the new normal,the accelerated substitution of old energy by new energy and rigid restrictions composed of low carbon and environmental protection requirements, the oil demand of China will continue to increase overall, but the growth will obviously slow down. At the same time, the newly-increased production capacity in Shandong and coastal region will continuously expand, the supply and demand contradiction will intensify, and the structural excess production capacity of the oil refining industry of China will be prominent. It is suggested that the government should attach great importance to the production capacity of the oil refining industry at the macro level, and deeply carry forward the supply side structural reform, and that enterprises should speed up technical innovation,enhance regional and layout optimization, adapt to market changes and adjust product structure, control oil refining but increase chemical engineering, improve product quality and production efficiency, and constantly promote the international competitiveness of the Chinese petrochemical industry.

Oil Refining Planning under Petroleum Products Demand Uncertainties： Case of Algeria

This paper aims to analyze, with a linear dynamic programming, the Algerian refining industry development by 2030 in the presence of uncertainties, both on the domestic demand and the exportation of the petroleum products. Currently, the Algerian refining industry has to be adapted to meet demand progress both in terms of volume and also in terms of specifications, in a general context marked by a strong volatility of the oil markets. Commonly, refining operations planning models are based on a deterministic linear programming. However, because of the demand fluctuation, and other conditions for the market, many parameters should be considered as uncertain such as the demand and the exportation. The impact of such uncertainties on the development＇s pattern of refining capacities is analyzed with a stochastic model. Finally, the results of both deterministic and stochastic models are compared.

Characteristics Evaluation of Modern Bituminous Binders in Group Hydrocarbon Composition and Their Application in Construction

The article is the result of theoretical and experimental studies aimed at determining the structural groups of modern bituminous materials in order to assess the raw materials, production technology, rational directions for their use in construction, the road industry and waterproofing. Commercial oil bitumen, raw tars and heavy oil residues (semi-finished products) of oil refineries aimed at meeting large-tonnage needs have been studied. The assessment was carried out according to the group hydrocarbon composition, by liquid chromatography using model compounds. Comparative analysis showed a general trend for all studied samples of petroleum bitumen: low content of asphaltenes (from 3.9 to 23.9 wt.%), low content of resins (from 11 to 19.07 wt%), insufficient for the formation of stable structuring layers, and a significant content of aromatic hydrocarbons, including heavy aromatic compounds (more than 20 wt.%). An assumption was made about the influence of the origin and the structure obtained during the processing of asphaltenes and resins on the transition from one type of bituminous structure to another based on the lyophility of high-molecular group components. A comparative structural characteristic of heavy oil residues from gasoline and oil production is considered in comparison with bitumens of various viscosities. Recommendations are given on the technology of processing petroleum feedstock and the use of heavy oils in order to obtain a given bitumen structure for the production of rational bitumen products for construction and waterproofing.

Multivariable sales prediction for filling stations via GA improved BiLSTM

Accurate sales prediction in filling stations is the basis to fill in the refined oil in time and avoid the outof-stock as much as possible.Considering the defect of great“lag”in the general time series model,this paper summarizes the multiple factors that influence the oil sales and develops a multivariable long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network,with the hyper-parameters being improved by the genetic algorithm(GA).To further improve the prediction accuracy,the proposed LSTM neural network is generalized to bidirectional LSTM(Bi LSTM),in which the impact of future factors on present sales can be taken into account by backward training.Finally,different LSTM structures and genetic algorithm parameters are tested to discuss their impact on prediction accuracy.Results demonstrated that genetic algorithm improved Bi LSTM model is superior to extreme gradient boosting,ARIMA,and artificial neural network,having the highest accuracy of 89%.

Characterization of refined fish oil from small fish in Mauritania

In this study,the effects of chemical refining on the physicochemical indices,environmental pollutants,lipid functional groups,relaxation characteristics,fatty acid profiles,and triglyceride(TG)molecular species in crude oil extracted from small fish in Mauritania were evaluated.The acid,peroxide,and iodine values of crude oil were identified as 5.52 mg KOH/g,1.73 meq/kg,and 200.78 g/100 g oil,respectively.After refining,these values were determined to be 0.29 mg KOH/g,0.76 meq/kg,and 210.80 g/100 g oil,respectively.The polychlorinated biphenyls and arsenic content of crude oil were identified as 32.30μg/kg and 1.00 mg/kg,respectively.After refining,these were not detected.The content of eicosapentaenoic acid(EPA)and docosahexaenoic acid(DHA)accounted for as much as 87.55%of the polyunsaturated fatty acids in the refined oil,indicating that high-quality fish oil is suitable as a food supplement.The correlation coefficient of the infrared spectra before and after refining was 0.968,and the relaxation time and peak shape data were almost similar before and after purification.Meanwhile,there were no significant differences(P≥0.05)in fatty acid profiles between the crude and refined oils,except for C16:0(P<0.01).Based on UPLC-Q E-MS/MS detection,137 TG molecules were identified in both crude and refined oils.Among the detected TG molecular species,64 contained EPA or DHA,which accounted for 46.83%and 46.00%of the total TG content in crude and refined oils,respectively.After refining,the content of the molecular species decreased by 31.95 mg/10 g,among which the three most variable molecular species were TG(16:0/18:1/22:6),(16:1/16:2/18:1),and(18:4/16:0/20:5),accounting for 29.26%of the decline of the molecular species.Overall,the refining process had little effect on the fatty acid profile and distribution of TG molecular species in fish oil.

Mesoporous zeolites as efficient catalysts for oil refining and natural gas conversion

Zeolites have been regarded as one of the most important catalysts in petrochemical industry due to their excellent catalytic performance. However, the sole micro- pores in zeolites severely limit their applications in oil refining and natural gas conversion. To solve the problem, mesoporous zeolites have been prepared by introducing mesopores into the zeolite crystals in recent years, and thus have the advantages of both mesostructured materials （fast diffusion and accessible for bulky molecules） and micro- porous zeolite crystals （strong acidity and high hydro- thermal stability）. In this review, after giving a brief introduction to preparation, structure, and characterization of mesoporous zeolites, we systematically summarize catalytic applications of these mesoporous zeolites as efficient catalysts in oil refining and natural gas conversion including catalytic cracking of heavy oil, alkylation, isomerization, hydrogenation, hydrodesulfurization, methane dehydroaromatization, methanol dehydration to dimethyl ether, methanol to olefins, and methanol to hydrocarbons.

Changes in PAH and 3-MCPDE contents at the various stages of Camellia oleifera seed oil refining

Objectives:Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs)and 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol ester(3-MCPDE)were studied in camellia oil.It is important to study the changes in the content of PAHs and 3-MCPDE at different refining stages(from crude oil to the final refined oil product)to elucidate the influence of the refining procedures on their change.Materials and methods:The PAHs and 3-MCPDE in camellia oil from different refining stages(from crude oil to the product)of a plant were analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry and calculated by the internal standard method.Results:The overall PAH content was(79.64±2.43)μg/kg in crude camellia oil.After refining treatment,the PAH content decreased to(18.75±0.55)μg/kg.The 3-MCPDE content increased during the refining process from 0 mg/kg in the crude oil to 4.62 mg/kg in the refined oil product.Conclusions:This is the first study to simultaneously monitor changes in both PAH and 3-MCPDE contents during the production of camellia oil.These results confirmed the effectiveness of the refining method on PAH removal and the increase in 3-MCPDE at high temperature.It is suggested that novel processing methods or refining parameters need further optimization to decrease the overall concentrations of PAHs and 3-MCPDE in camellia oil.