The Environmental Impacts of Informal Economies in China: Inverted U-shaped Relationship and Regional Variances

This paper aims to the debate on the nexus between informal economies and the environment by investigating the long-term dynamic impacts of China’s informal economies on pollution and considering regional differences in informal economies’ pollution.This paper uses the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes(MIMIC) model to estimate the size of informal economies and employs econometric models to examine their relationships to pollution based on provincial-level panel data from 2000 to 2017. The results indicate that informal economies’ effects on environmental pollution are not purely positive or negative. Rather, our model indicates that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between informal economies and pollution in the long run in China;this means that the level of environmental pollution increases at first and then decreases with the growth of informal economies. Further analysis shows that while this inverted, U-shaped relationship is significant in different regions of China, it is affected by different environmental impact factors. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications for environmental protection and sustainable development.

Farmland dataset reconstruction and farmland change analysis in China during 1661-1985

This research reconstructs China＇s provincial farmland dataset in the last 300 years （1661-1985） by applying factor correction, citing replacement, linear interpolation, cohesion and contrast, man-land relationship test, farming trend test, provincial administrative area adjustment, etc. on available farmland data based on China＇s current provincial administrative boundary. Based on this dataset, a quantitative analysis has been applied to study the farm- land amount and its change Characteristics at both national and provincial level. Three con- clusions are derived： （1） Along with the rapid population growth, national farmland amount has increased by about 320% in the last 300 years from 424,480 km2 in the early Qing Dy- nasty to 1,368,600 km2 in 1985. Comparing with global and national farmland datasets, in terms of the overall trend of national farmland growth, very low deviation exists but significant variances do appear for some provinces. （2） At the beginning of the Qing Dynasty, China＇s farming activities mainly existed in the Yangtze River Plain, the North China Plain, the Guanzhong Basin and the Yinchuan Plain. Thereafter, reclamation activities expanded to outer agricultural areas. Regarding of the growth rate, national farmland increase can be divided into five phases. National policy, disasters, wars, and economic development, are the main factors affecting farmland changes. （3） Significant regional variances exist in farmland changes. In the space shaped by the average farmland amount and the average annual change rate of farmland, the nation can be divided into six areas.