Analysis of Driving Factors of Natural Gas Consumption in China: Based on Regional Integration and LMDI Method

In recent years,China has developed rapidly in terms of natural gas.Driven by regional economic integration,a regional natural gas market composed of neighboring provinces and cities has taken shape gradually,and it tends to grow toward the same direction in policy formulation,resource coordination,facility construction and market expansion.Based on the factors such as geographical location,economic conditions and natural gas consumption,this thesis tends to conduct a horizontal comparative analysis on the economic development conditions,natural gas consumption characteristics and natural gas pipeline network density of the three regions with obvious regional integration feature in China.Then according to LMDI,four core indicators,namely economic growth effect,energy intensity effect,energy structure effect,and substitution effect are selected.The thesis is expected to explore the contribution of different indicators to the growth of natural gas consumption in these three different regions.According to the results,it can be concluded that the driving factors of natural gas consumption differ greatly among regions.Specifically speaking,the more developed the economy is,the greater the contribution of the energy substitution effect to natural gas consumption will be,and the contribution of the economic growth effect to natural gas consumption will be smaller.Despite that the contribution of energy intensity in different regions shows slight difference,the energy structure contributes the least effect,which further explains the current differences in China’s natural gas consumption characteristics and the reasons behind.

Resilience-Oriented Load Restoration Method and Repair Strategies for Regional Integrated Electricity-Natural Gas System

The rising frequency of extreme disaster events seriously threatens the safe and secure operation of the regional integrated electricity-natural gas system(RIENGS).With the growing level of coupling between electric and natural gas systems,it is critical to enhance the load restoration capability of both systems.This paper proposes a coordinated optimization strategy for resilience-enhanced RIENGS load restoration and repair scheduling and transforms it into a mixed integer second-order cone programming(MISOCP)model.The proposed model considers the distribution network reconfiguration and the coordinated repair strategy between the two systems,minimizing the total system load loss cost and repair time.In addition,a bi-directional gas flow model is used to describe the natural gas system,which can provide the RIENGS with more flexibility for load restoration during natural gas system failure.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by conducting case studies on the test systems RIENGS E13-G7 and RIENGS E123-G20.

Simulated photo-degradation of dissolved organic matter in lakes revealed by three-dimensional excitation-emission matrix with regional integration and parallel factor analysis

Simulated photo-degradation of fluorescent dissolved organic matter(FDOM) in Lake Baihua(BH) and Lake Hongfeng(HF) was investigated with three-dimensional excitationemission matrix(3 DEEM) fluorescence combined with the fluorescence regional integration(FRI),parallel factor(PARAFAC) analysis,and multi-order kinetic models.In the FRI analysis,fulvic-like and humic-like materials were the main constituents for both BH-FDOM and HF-FDOM.Four individual components were identified by use of PARAFAC analysis as humic-like components(C1),fulvic-like components(C2),protein-like components(C3) and unidentified components(C4).The maximum 3 DEEM fluorescence intensity of PARAFAC components C1-C3 decreased by about 60%,70% and 90%,respectively after photo-degradation.The multi-order kinetic model was acceptable to represent the photo-degradation of FDOM with correlation coefficient(Radj2)(0.963-0.998).The photo-degradation rate constants(kn) showed differences of three orders of magnitude,from 1.09 × 10-6 to 4.02 × 10-4 min-1,and half-life of multi-order model(T1/2n)ranged from 5.26 to 64.01 min.The decreased values of fluorescence index(FI) and biogenic index(BI),the fact that of percent fluorescence response parameter of Region I(PⅠ,n) showed the greatest change ratio,followed by percent fluorescence response parameter of Region II(PⅡ,n,while the largest decrease ratio was found for C3 components,and the lowest T1/2n was observed for C3,indicated preferential degradation of protein-like materials/components derived from biological sources during photodegradation.This research on the degradation of FDOM by 3 DEEM/FRI-PARAFAC would be beneficial to understanding the photo-degradation of FD OM in natural environments and accurately predicting the environmental behaviors of contaminants in the presence of FDOM.

North American Free Trade Area and World Economic Regional Integration

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＂Convergence＂ or ＂Divergence＇？ --Rethinking Regional Integration of the Past Two Decades

The European Union （EU）, North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA） and Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） are the three biggest regional economic cooperation organizations in the world. What roles have these three organizations played in both domestic development and the evolving global trend of regional integration？ This paper investigates the inequality among these three organizations for regional economic cooperation based on cross-national parallel data from thirty-nine countries over the period 1989-2008. By using the Theil index decomposition, this paper finds that the interregional disparity is the main source of inequality. This paper also finds that intraregional disparity rose significantly from the mid-1990s. ASEAN contributes an equalizing force to the change, while NAFTA contributes a disequalizing force. From the empirical tests based on the Barro non-linear growth regression model, our results show that the whole sample and some subregional samples （ASEAN and EU） support the convergence hypothesis. ASEAN＇s convergence speed is the fastest, which testifies to the fact that the convergence speed of the transition path is faster than the long-term path.

The Inspiration of European Integration to Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation

The two different developing trends in current Asia are in sharp contrast with each other. One is relying on military means to solve regional conflicts, the other is coordinating and stabilizing inter-state relations through economic integration. The latter is undoubtedly the target to be sought after. Summarizing Europe’s experience is conducive to reaching the goal.

Coordinated development of Yunnan's frontier culture and economy under the regional economic integration pattern

This paper constructs the index system by means of quantitative analysis. We choose the coordination degree of Yunnan province from 2012 to 2015. The regional cultural and economic development in Yunnan's frontier are analyzed so that we can provide the reference for the sustainable development of Yunnan's frontier and realize the coordinated development of culture in Yunnan's frontier and economic system in order. The results show that the culture and economy in Yunnan's frontier are coupled with formation of the coordinated development of culture and economy; economic development is the main reason to promote the coordinated development of culture and economy in Yunnan's frontier, and it contributes to the main force of improving the coordinated development of evolution types; the coordinated development degree of the overall level is low and still in the China's backward level.

The comparative African regional economics of globalization in financial allocation efficiency: the pre-crisis era revisited

This study assesses the role of globalization-fueled regionalization policies on the financial allocation efficiency of four economic and monetary regions in Africa from 1980 to 2008.Banking and financial system efficiency proxies are used as dependent variables and seven bundled and unbundled globalization variables are employed as independent indicators.The bundling is achieved by principal component analysis,while the empirical evidence is based on interactive fixed effects regressions.The findings are as follows.First,financial allocation efficiency is more sensitive to financial openness compared to trade openness and most sensitive to globalization.The relationship between allocation efficiency and globalization-fueled regionalization policies is defined by:(i)a Kuznets or inverted U-shaped curve in the UEMOA and CEMAC zones(evidence of decreasing returns for allocation efficiency from globalization-fueled regionalization)and(ii)a U-shaped relationship overwhelmingly in the COMESA and scantily in the EAC(increasing returns to allocation efficiency due to globalization-fueled regionalization).These relationships are relevant to the specific globalization dynamics within regions.Economic and monetary regions are more prone to surplus liquidity than pure economic regions are.Policy implications and measures for reducing surplus liquidity are also discussed.

Pattern of Opening Up,Integration and Reshaping Economic Geography——A New Economic Geography Analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the central government has implemented several regional development plans,including the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt,aiming to reshape the economic geography of China.This paper is based on the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt and outlines the pattern of opening up.To analyze the impact of the pattern of opening up on the regional integration of China's economic geography,this paper has developed a new economic geography model comprised of four regions and two countries.From this,it draws some conclusions.First,the change of pattern of opening up will lead to shifting centripetal and centrifugal forces from the international market.The greater the scale of neighboring markets,the stronger the agglomeration force will be; the more product varieties made in neighboring countries,the more potent its dispersion force.Second,developing an inland international trade corridor will decentralize industry distribution and reduce the impact of external market integration on home countries.Third,the inland international trade corridor could alter the effect of domestic market integration on the economic geography.When domestic integration occurs prior to international integration,further integration of a domestic market leads to greater industrial distribution along a bell-shaped curve,which describes economic activities from dispersion to agglomeration to decentralization.Therefore,developing an integrated market system of major countries and opening a corridor between China and Europe is not only the key to reshaping China's economic geography but also the path to solving the problems of the Heihe-Tengchong Line.

Optimal Scheduling for Flexible Regional Integrated Energy Systemwith Soft Open Point

The Regional Integrated Energy System(RIES)has brought new modes of development,utilization,conversion,storage of energy.The introduction of Soft Open Point(SOP)and the application of Power to Gas(P2G)technology will greatly deepen the coupling of the electricity-gas integrated energy system,improve the flexibility and safety of the operation of the power system,and bring a deal of benefits to the power system.On this background,an optimal dispatch model of RIES combined cold,heat,gas and electricity with SOP is proposed.Firstly,RIES architecture with SOP and P2G is designed and its mathematical model also is built.Secondly,on the basis of considering the optimal scheduling of combined cold,heat,gas and electricity,the optimal scheduling model for RIES was established.After that,the original model is transformed into a mixed-integer second-order cone programming model by using linearization and second-order cone relaxation techniques,and the CPLEX solver is invoked to solve the optimization problem.Finally,the modified IEEE 33-bus systemis used to analyze the benefits of SOP,P2G technology and lithium bromide absorption chillers in reducing systemnetwork loss and cost,as well as improving the system’s ability to absorb wind and solar and operating safety.

Deep learning-based method for detecting anomalies in electromagnetic environment situation

The anomaly detection of electromagnetic environment situation(EMES) has essential reference value for electromagnetic equipment behavior cognition and battlefield threat assessment.In this paper,we proposed a deep learning-based method for detecting anomalies in EMES to address the problem of relatively low efficiency of electromagnetic environment situation anomaly detection(EMES-AD).Firstly,the convolutional kernel extracts the static features of different regions of the EMES.Secondly,the dynamic features of the region are obtained by using a recurrent neural network(LSTM).Thirdly,the Spatio-temporal features of the region are recovered by using a de-convolutional network and then fused to predict the EMES.The structural similarity algorithm(SSIM) is used to determine whether it is anomalous.We developed the detection framework,de-signed the network parameters,simulated the data sets containing different anomalous types of EMES,and carried out the detection experiments.The experimental results show that the proposed method is effective.

Operation Cost Optimization Method of Regional Integrated Energy System in Electricity Market Environment Considering Uncertainty

In the electricity market environment,the regional integrated energy system(RIES)can reduce the total operation cost by participating in electricity market transactions.However,the RIES will face the risk of load and electricity price uncertainties,which may make its operation cost higher than expected.This paper proposes a method to optimize the operation cost of the RIES in the electricity market environment considering uncertainty.Firstly,based on the operation cost structure of the RIES in the electricity market environment,the energy flow relationship of the RIES is analyzed,and the operation cost model of the RIES is built.Then,the electricity purchase costs of the RIES in the medium-and long-term electricity markets,the spot electricity market,and the retail electricity market are analyzed.Finally,considering the risk of load and electricity price uncertainties,the operation cost optimization model of the RIES is established based on conditional value-at-risk.Then it is solved to obtain the operation cost optimization strategy of the RIES.Verification results show that the proposed operation cost optimization method can reduce the operation cost of high electricity price scenario by optimizing the energy purchase and distribution strategy,constrain the risk of load and electricity price uncertainties,and help balance the risks and benefits.

Multivariate Two-stage Adaptive-stacking Prediction of Regional Integrated Energy System

To reduce environmental pollution and improve the efficiency of cascaded energy utilization, regional integrated energy system(RIES) has received extensive attention. An accurate multi-energy load prediction is significant for RIES as it enables stakeholders to make effective decisions for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. To this end, this paper proposes a multivariate two-stage adaptive-stacking prediction(M2ASP) framework. First, a preprocessing module based on ensemble learning is proposed. The input data are preprocessed to provide a reliable database for M2ASP, and highly correlated input variables of multi-energy load prediction are determined. Then, the load prediction results of four predictors are adaptively combined in the first stage of M2ASP to enhance generalization ability. Predictor hyper-parameters and intermediate data sets of M2ASP are trained with a metaheuristic method named collaborative atomic chaotic search(CACS) to achieve the adaptive staking of M2ASP. Finally, a prediction correction of the peak load consumption period is conducted in the second stage of M2ASP. The case studies indicate that the proposed framework has higher prediction accuracy, generalization ability, and stability than other benchmark prediction models.

Experiment and Achievement Enlightenment of Integrated Prospecting of Carbonate-Type Lead-Zinc Deposits in the Sichuan-Yunnan-Guizhou Region of China

Mississippi-Valley＇s carbonate-type （MVT） lead-zinc deposits are the most important type of lead-zinc deposits in the southwest of China. In 2013, China Geological Survey Bureau deployed a project named ＂Experimental Investigation of Integrated Prospecting Technology for Concealed Carbonate-Type Lead-Zinc Deposits in the Region of Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces＂. This project has been implemented by the Chengdu Center of China Geological Survey since 2013, and the project has run for 3 years. The general objective of this project is to establish an effective and adaptable integrated prospecting methodology （including geological, geophysical and geochemical techniques） in search for deep concealed lead-zinc deposits.

The Arab League’s Decision-making System and Arab Integration

This paper analyzes the function of the Arab League decision-making system and its influences on the Arab integration from the perspective of institutionalism and integration theory.Arab League makes its decisions on the basis of cooperation and negotiations.Theoretically,only in some policy fields where cooperation outperforms unilateral action,can such a decision institution lead to mutual policies and unanimous actions.However,practically,this system lacks efficient operations on the regional level.Even in the fields of economy or security,where member states share more mutual interests,the integrative cooperation of the Arab League is confined to the limited policy framework,with minimum agreements as its outcome.Experience from the Europe Union suggests that there must be a supra-national institution to propose draft,supervise the development and implementation of the policies,and regulate the behaviors of relevant nations.The integrative direction and outlook of Arab League depends exactly on its future decision-making system.

From Southeast Asia to the Gulf:Analysis of the Prospect of Indian Ocean Integration

The Indian Ocean is not only a geographic unit,but also a sub-system of the international system constructed within the interactions among the coastal countries.This article chooses the regional organizations as a variable to analyze the interactions among Indian Ocean coastal countries.With the empirical studies on the regional cooperation organizations,this article discloses the dynamics behind the regional integration between costal countries along the Indian Ocean Region.Six most representative regional cooperation organizations have been analyzed by this article,which are respectively the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf(GCC),South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation(SAARC),Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN),Southern African Development Community(SADC),and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa(COMESA),as well as Indian Ocean Rim Association(IORA).They could make purposive and rational decisions within the institutional constraints.Based on case studies and comparative analysis,this article suggests that there are four significantly different cooperation models among the coastal countries,and suggests not simply estimate the likely regional powers or organizations that would lead the construction of the regional cooperation,but the great importance of building the linkage among various regional cooperation institutions.

INTRODUCING A NEW INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM:MONSOON ASIA INTEGRATED REGIONAL STUDY (MAIRS)

The Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study （MAIRS） is a new Earth System Science Partnership （ESSP） program aimed at the integrated study of environmental changes over monsoon Asian region. This paper briefly introduces MAIRS, its background and concept, scientific themes and objectives, data requirements and its information system, intensive observation experiment, and its linkage with ongoing international projects.

An explainable framework for load forecasting of a regional integrated energy system based on coupled features and multi-task learning

To extract strong correlations between different energy loads and improve the interpretability and accuracy for load forecasting of a regional integrated energy system(RIES),an explainable framework for load forecasting of an RIES is proposed.This includes the load forecasting model of RIES and its interpretation.A coupled feature extracting strat-egy is adopted to construct coupled features between loads as the input variables of the model.It is designed based on multi-task learning(MTL)with a long short-term memory(LSTM)model as the sharing layer.Based on SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP),this explainable framework combines global and local interpretations to improve the interpretability of load forecasting of the RIES.In addition,an input variable selection strategy based on the global SHAP value is proposed to select input feature variables of the model.A case study is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,constructed coupled features,and input variable selection strategy.The results show that the explainable framework intuitively improves the interpretability of the prediction model.

区域一体化视角下RCEP自贸区的商品贸易结构分析

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) was formally signed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) countries, along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. This was a significant step towards regional integration in the Asia-Pacific region. Analysing the trade structure among member states is crucial in understanding the path to regional integration and policy implications of regional cooperation within the RCEP framework. Based on subdivided commodity data, this study reviews the evolution of merchandise trade in the RCEP region in the past two decades. It investigates the current trade structure of the RCEP, emphasising the relative importance of intra-regional versus extra-regional interdependence and the trade asymmetry of the regional members. The results of the study are as follows: First, the overall extent of regional trade integration in the RCEP region increased modestly from 2001 to 2018, indicating that the RCEP region was export-oriented and there was significant room for further expansion of regional trade. Second, most of the commodities traded in the RCEP region demonstrated much higher extra-regional interdependence than intra-regional in 2018, particularly labor-, capital-, and technology-intensive products such as television and radio apparatus. Third, the trade networks of the top five traded commodities were distinguished by large economic asymmetries, with China, Japan, and South Korea being the dominant regional powers. These findings have significant implications for understanding how to promote regional integration and cooperation. Besides expanding intra-regional trade, outward-oriented factors influenced by the regional powers—including consolidating the global advantages of manufacturing, stabilizing supply chains by including large resource countries, and attracting extra-regional investments—were also the main rationales for the conclusion of the RCEP.