Trends of Regional Precipitation and Their Control Mechanisms during 1979–2013

Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP （Global Precipitation Climatology Project） data and MERRA （Modern- Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications） reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60~ S-60~N during a major global warming period of 1979-2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada, the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers-the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa-leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.

Moisture Transport and Associated Background Circulation for the Regional Extreme Precipitation Events over South China in Recent 40 Years

Based on the hourly precipitation data at 176 observational stations over south China and the hourly ERA5reanalysis data during the 40-yr period of 1981-2020, we analyzed the universal characteristics of moisture transport and their associated background circulations for four types of regional extreme precipitation events(REPEs) over south China. Main findings are shown as follow.(i) The wind that transported moisture for the REPEs over south China featured a notable diurnal variation, which was consistent with the variations of the precipitation.(ii) Four types of REPEs could be determined, among which the southwest type(SWT) and the southeast type(SET) accounted for ~92%and ~5.7%, respectively, ranking the first and second, respectively.(iii) Trajectory analyses showed that the air particles of the SWT-REPEs had the largest specific humidity and experienced the most intense ascending motion, and therefore their precipitation was the strongest among the four types.(iv) South China was dominated by notable moisture flux convergence for the four types of REPEs, but their moisture transport was controlled by different flow paths.(v)Composite analyses indicated that the background circulation of the four types of REPEs showed different features,particularly for the intensity, location and coverage of a western Pacific subtropical high. For the SWT-REPEs, their moisture transport was mainly driven by a lower-tropospheric strong southwesterly wind band in the low-latitude regions. Air particles for this type of REPEs mainly passed over the Indochina Peninsula and South China Sea. For the SET-REPEs, their moisture transport was mainly steered by a strong low-tropospheric southeasterly wind northeast of a transversal trough. Air particles mainly passed over the South China Sea for this type of REPEs.

Changes in Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events over China from 1960 to 2018

In earlier studies,objective techniques have been used to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to precipitation(TCP)in a region,where the Tropical cyclone Precipitation Event(TPE)and the Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(RHPEs)are defined and investigated.In this study,TPE and RHPEs are combined to determine the Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(TRHPEs),which is employed to evaluate the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional extreme precipitation events.Based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE)and the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique(OSAT)to define TPE,temporal and spatial overlap indices are developed to identify the combined events as TRHPE.With daily precipitation data and TC best-track data over the western North Pacific from 1960 to 2018,86 TRHPEs have been identified.TRHPEs contribute as much as 20%of the RHPEs,but100%of events with extreme individual precipitation intensities.The major TRHPEs continued for approximately a week after tropical cyclone landfall,indicating a role of post landfall precipitation.The frequency and extreme intensity of TRHPEs display increasing trends,consistent with an observed positive trend in the mean intensity of TPEs as measured by the number of daily station precipitation observations exceeding 100 mm and 250 mm.More frequent landfalling Southeast and South China TCs induced more serious impacts in coastal areas in the Southeast and the South during 1990-2018 than1960-89.The roles of cyclone translation speed and"shifts"in cyclone tracks are examined as possible explanations for the temporal trends.

Development of a Downscaling Method in China Regional Summer Precipitation Prediction

A downscaling method taking into account of precipitation regionalization is developed and used in the regional summer precipitation prediction （RSPP） in China. The downscaling is realized by utilizing the optimal subset regression based on the hindcast data of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Climate Model of National Climate Center （CGCM/NCC）, the historical reanalysis data, and the observations. The data are detrended in order to remove the influence of the interannual variations on the selection of predictors for the RSPP. Optimal predictors are selected through calculation of anomaly correlation coefficients （ACCs） twice to ensure that the high-skill areas of the CGCM/NCC are also those of observations, with the ACC value reaching the 0.05 significant level. One-year out cross-validation and independent sample tests indicate that the downscaling method is applicable in the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly across most of China/vith high and stable accuracy, and is much better than the direct CGCM/NCC prediction. The predictors used in the downscaling method for the RSPP are independent and have strong physical meanings, thus leading to the improvements in the prediction of regional precipitation anomalies.

Variations in Regional Mean Daily Precipitation Extremes and Related Circulation Anomalies over Central China During Boreal Summer

The variations of regional mean daily precipitation extreme （RMDPE） events in central China and associated circulation anomalies during June, July, and August （JJA） of 1961-2010 are investigated by using daily in-situ precipitation observations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The precipitation data were collected at 239 state-level stations distributed throughout the provinces of Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. During 1961-2010, the 99th percentile threshold for RMDPE is 23.585 mm day-1. The number of RMDPE events varies on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, and increases significantly after the mid 1980s. The RMDPE events happen most frequently between late June and mid July, and are generally associated with anomalous baroclinic tropospheric circulations. The supply of moisture to the southern part of central China comes in a stepping way from the outer-region of an abnormal anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. Fluxes of wave activity generated over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau converge over central China, which favors the genesis and maintenance of wave disturbances over the region. RMDPE events typically occur in tandem with a strong heating gradient formed by net heating in central China and the large-scale net cooling in the surrounding area. The occurrence of RMDPE events over central China is tied to anomalous local cyclonic circulations, topographic forcing over the northeast Tibetan Plateau, and anomalous gradients of diabatic heating between central China and the surrounding areas.

Simulation of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems in Northern China：Lightning Activities and Storm Structure

Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems（QLMCSs） in northern China were simulated using the WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting） model and the 3D-Var（three-dimensional variational） analysis system of the ARPS（Advanced Regional Prediction System） model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.

Causal effects of shelter forests and water factors on desertification control during 2000–2010 at the Horqin Sandy Land region, China

The Horqin Sandy Land（HSL）, the largest sandy land in the semi-arid agro-pastoral ecotone of Northeast China, has been subject to desertification during the past century. In response, and to control the desertification,government implemented the Three-North Shelter/Protective Forest Program, world＇s largest ecological reforestation/afforestation restoration program. The program began in1978 and will continue for 75 years until 2050. Understanding the dynamics of desertification and its driving forces is a precondition for controlling desertification.However, there is little evidence to directly link causal effects with desertification process（i.e., on the changing area of sandy land） because desertification is a complex process,that can be affected by vegetation（including vegetation cover and extent of shelter forests） and water factors such as precipitation, surface soil moisture, and evapotranspiration.The objectives of this study were to identify how influencing factors, especially shelter forests, affected desertification in HSL over a recent decade. We used Landsat TM imagery analysis and path analysis to identify the effects of spatiotemporal changes in water and vegetation parameters during2000–2010. Desertification was controlled during the study period, as indicated by a decrease in desert area at a rate of163.3 km2year-1and an increase in the area with reduced intensity or extent of desertification. Total vegetation cover in HSL increased by 10.6 % during the study period and this factor exerted the greatest direct and indirect effects on slowing desertification. The contribution of total vegetation cover to controlling desertification increased with the intensity of desertification. On slightly and extremely severe desertified areas, vegetation cover contributed 5 and 42 % of the desertification reduction, respectively. There were significant correlations between total vegetation cover and water conditions（i.e., evapotranspiration and precipitation）and the area of shelter forests（P ／ 0.0001）, in which water conditions and the existence of shelter forests contributed49.7 and 12.8 % to total vegetation cover, respectively. The area of shelter forests increased sharply due to program efforts, but only shrub forests had significant direct effects on reducing the area of desertification categorized as slightly desertified. The reason for the lack of direct effect of increased arbor forests（accounting for 95.3 % of the total increase in shelter forests） on reducing desertification might be that the selected arbor species were not suited to water conditions（low precipitation, high evapotranspiration） prevailing at HSL. The establishment of shelter forests aided control of desertification in the HSL region, but the effect was less than expected. Effective control of desertification in the HSL region or other similar sandy areas will require greater improvements in vegetation cover. In particular,shrub species should be selected for plantation with reference to their potential to survive and reproduce in the harsh climatic and weather conditions typical of desertified areas.

Heavy Precipitation over the Jing–Jin–Ji Region in Early October: What Controls Its Interannual Variability?

Heavy regional precipitation(HRP)over Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei Province(the Jing–Jin–Ji region or JJJ)in early October(1–10 October)is a high-impact climate event because of travel and outdoor activities by exceptionally large population during the Chinese National Day Holidays(CNDH).What causes the year-to-year variation of the HRP during early October is investigated through an observational analysis.It is found that the HRP arises from moisture transport by southerly anomalies to the west of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the subtropical northwestern Pacific(SNWP).Sensitivity numerical experiments reveal that the low-level anticyclonic anomaly is caused by a dipole heating pattern over tropical western and central Pacific associated with a La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)pattern in the Pacific and by a negative heating anomaly over North Europe.The latter connects the SNWP anticyclone through a Rossby wave train.Anomalous ascent associated with a positive heating anomaly over the tropical western Pacific may strengthen the local Hadley Cell,contributing to maintenance of the low-level anomalous anticyclone over SNWP and extending westwards of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Therefore,both the tropical Pacific and midlatitude heating signals over North Europe may be potential predictors for HRP forecast in the JJJ region in early October.

Anomalous Circulation Patterns in Association with Two Types of Daily Precipitation Extremes over Southeastern China during Boreal Summer

Based on the daily rainfall data from China Meteorological Administration,the tropical cyclone（TC） best track data from Japan Meteorological Agency,and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data from NOAA,regional mean daily precipitation extreme（RDPE） events over southeastern China（specifically,the Fujian-Jiangxi region（FJR）） and the associated circulation anomalies are investigated.For the summers of 1979-2011,a total of 105 RDPE events are identified,among which 35 are TC-infiuenced（TCIn-RDPE） and 70 are TCfree events（TCFr-RDPE）.Distinct differences between these two types of RDPEs are found in both their statistical features and the related circulation patterns.TCFr-RDPEs usually occur in June,while TCInRDPEs mainly take place during July-August.When TCFr-RDPEs happen,a center of the anomalous cyclonic circulation is observed over the FJR,with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south of this region.The warm/moist air flows from the South China Sea（SCS） and western Pacific meet with colder air from the north,forming a narrow convergent belt of water vapor over the FJR.Simultaneously,positive diabatic forcing anomalies are observed over the FJR,whereas negative anomalies appear over both its south and north sides,facilitating the formation and maintenance of the cyclonic circulation anomaly,as well as the upward motion of the atmosphere,over the FJR.When TCIn-RDPEs occur,southeastern China is dominated by a TC-related stronger anomalous cyclonic circulation.An anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the mid and high latitudes north of the FJR exists in the mid and upper troposphere,opposite to the situation during TCFr-RDPE events.Abundant warm/wet air is carried into the FJR from both the Indian Ocean and the SCS,leading to a large amount of latent heat release over the FJR and inducing strong ascending motion there.Furthermore,large differences are also found in the manifestation of Rossby wave energy propagation between these two types of RDPE events.The results of this study are helpful to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms behind these two types of RDPE events.

Changes of Precipitation Intensity Spectra in Different Regions of China's Mainland During 1961-2006

The spectral characteristics of precipitation intensity during warm and cold years are compared in six regions of China based on precipitation data at 404 meteorological stations during 1961-2006.In all of the studied regions except North China,with the increasing temperature,a decreasing trend is observed in light precipitation and the number of light precipitation days,while an increasing trend appears in heavy precipitation and the heavy precipitation days.Although changes in precipitation days in North China are similar to the changes in the other five regions,heavy precipitation decreases with the increasing temperature in this region.These results indicate that in most parts of China,the amount of precipitation and number of precipitation days have shifted towards heavy precipitation under the background of a warming climate;however,the responses of precipitation distributions to global warming differ from place to place.The number of light precipitation days decreases in the warm and humid regions of China（Jianghuai region,South China,and Southwest China）,while the increasing amplitude of heavy precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days are greater in the warm and humid regions of China than that in the northern regions（North China,Northwest China,and Northeast China）.In addition,changes are much more obvious in winter than in summer,indicating that the changes in the precipitation frequency are more affected by the increasing temperature during winter than summer.The shape and scale parameters of the Γ distribution of daily precipitation at most stations of China have increased under the background of global warming.The scale parameter changes are smaller than the shape parameter changes in all regions except Northwest China.This suggests that daily precipitation shifts toward heavy precipitation in China under the warming climate.The number of extreme precipitation events increases slightly,indicating that changes in the Γ distribution fitting parameters reflect changes in the regional precipitation distribution structure.

Effects of the Physical Process Ensemble Technique on Simulation of Summer Precipitation over China

The effects of the physical process ensemble technique on simulation of summer precipitation over China have been studied by using a p-σregional climate model with 9 vertical levels（pσ-RCM9）.The results show that there are obvious differences among simulations of summer precipitation over China from different individual ensemble members.The simulated precipitation over China is sensitive to different cumulus convection,radiative transfer,and land surface process parameterizations.These differences lead to large uncertainties in the simulation results.The standard deviation of the simulated summer precipitation departure percentage over West China is larger than that over East China,signifying that the simulated precipitation over East China has higher reliability and consistency than that over West China.The Talagr and diagram shows that the ensemble system has reasonable dispersion in the simulated summer mean precipitation over East China.The summer ensemble mean precipitation over East China evaluated by various indices is better than most single simulations.The physical process ensemble technique reduces the uncertainties of the model physics in precipitation and improves the simulation results as a whole.Further, adopting the optimized ensemble mean method can obviously improve the performance of the pσ-RCM9 model in simulation of summer precipitation over East China.

The dynamic forecast method of convective vorticity vector

In this paper we introduce the convective vorticity vector and its application in the forecast and diagnosis of rainstorm.Convective vorticity vector is a parameter of vector field,different from scalar field,it contains more important information of physical quantities,so it could not be replaced.Considering the irresistible importance of vector field we will introduce the theory of vector field and its dynamic forecast method.With the convective vorticity vector and its vertical component's tendency equation,diagnostic analysis on the heavy-rainfall event caused by landfall typhoon“Morakot”in the year 2009 is conducted.The result shows that,the abnormal values of convective vorticity vector always changes with the development of the observed precipitation region,and their horizontal distribution is quite similar.Analysis reveals a certain correspondence between the convective vorticity vector and the observed 6-h accumulated surface rainfall,they are significantly related.The convective vorticity vector is capable of describing the typical vertical structure of dynamical and thermodynamic fields of precipitation system,so it is closely related to the occurrence and development of precipitation system and could have certain relation with the surface rainfall regions.