Recognition Method for Change Point of Traffic Flow Linear Regressions

Recognition method of traffic flow change point was put forward based on traffic flow theory and the statistical change point analysis of multiple linear regressions. The method was calibrated and tested with the field data of Liantong Road of Zibo city to verify the validity and the feasibility of the theory. The results show that change point method of multiple linear regression can make out the rule of quantitative changes in traffic flow more accurately than ordinary methods. So, the change point method can be applied to traffic information management system more effectively.

Predictions in Quantile Regressions

Two different tools to evaluate quantile regression forecasts are proposed: MAD, to summarize forecast errors, and a fluctuation test to evaluate in-sample predictions. The scores of the PISA test to evaluate students’ proficiency are considered. Growth analysis relates school attainment to economic growth. The analysis is complemented by investigating the estimated regression and predictions not only at the centre but also in the tails. For out-of-sample forecasts, the estimates in one wave are employed to forecast the following waves. The reliability of in-sample forecasts is controlled by excluding the part of the sample selected by a specific rule: boys to predict girls, public schools to forecast private ones, vocational schools to predict non-vocational, etc. The gradient computed in the subset is compared to its analogue computed in the full sample in order to verify the validity of the estimated equation and thus of the in-sample predictions.

Prediction of kiwifruit firmness using fruit mineral nutrient concentration by artificial neural network(ANN) and multiple linear regressions(MLR)

Many properties of fruit are influenced by plant nutrition. Fruit firmness is one of the most important fruit characteristics and determines post-harvest life of the fruit, in recent decades, artificial intelligence systems were employed for developing predictive models to estimate and predict many agriculture processes. In the present study, the predictive capabilities of multiple linear regressions （MLR） and artificial neural networks （ANNs） are evaluated to estimate fruit firmness in six months, including each of nutrients concentrations （nitrogen （N）, potassium （K）, calcium （Ca） and magnesium （Mg）） alone （P1）, com- bination of nutrients concentrations （P2）, nutrient concentration ratios alone （P3）, and combination of nutrient concentrations and nutrient concentration ratios （P4）. The results showed that MLR model estimated fruit firmness more accuracy than ANN model in three datasets （P1, P2 and P4）. However, the application of P3 （N/Ca ratio） as the input dataset in ANN model improved the prediction of fruit firmness than the MLR model. Correlation coefficient and root mean squared error （RMSE） were 0.850 and 0.539 between the measured and the estimated data by the ANN model, respectively. Generally, the ANN model showed greater potential in determining the relationship between 6-mon-fruit firmness and nutrients concentration.

Unbalanced Regressions and Spurious Inference

Spurious regression has been extensively studied in time series econometrics since Granger and Newbold’s seminal paper. Recently, it has been advanced that this phenomenon is due to a mistreatment of short-range autocorrelation in the residuals of the regression when at least one of the variables in a bivariate regression is stationary. HAC errors, feasible GLS and Cochrane-Orcutt-type procedures are then proposed to draw correct inference. Such a proposal should be cautiously considered, since nonsense inference might also be due to deterministic trend mechanisms, structural breaks, and long range dependence. In these cases, standard autocorrelation correction procedures would not solve the problem of spurious regression. We aim to make the later argument clear.

Gaussian process regressions on hot deformation behaviors of FGH98 nickel-based powder superalloy

The hot deformation behaviors of FGH98 nickel-based powder superalloy were experimentally investigated and theoretically analyzed by Arrhenius models and machine learning(ML).Hot compression tests were conducted with a Gleeble-3800 thermo-mechanical simulation machine on the FGH98 superalloy at strain rates of 0.001–1 s–1 and temperatures of 1025–1175℃.The peak stresses under different deformation conditions were analyzed via the Sellars model and an ML-inspired Gaussian process regression(GPR)model.The prediction of the GPR model outperformed that from the Sellars model.In addition,the stress-strain responses were predicted by the GPR model and tested by experimentally measured stress-strain curves.The results indicate that the developed GPR model has great power with wide generalization capability in the prediction of hot deformation behaviors of FGH98 superalloy,as evidenced by the R2 value higher than 0.99 on the test dataset.

Industrial Carbon Emission Distribution and Regional Joint Emission Reduction:A Case Study of Cities in the Pearl River Basin,China

China’s low-carbon development path will make significant contributions to achieving global sustainable development goals.Due to the diverse natural and economic conditions across different regions in China,there exists an imbalance in the distribution of car-bon emissions.Therefore,regional cooperation serves as an effective means to attain low-carbon development.This study examined the pattern of carbon emissions and proposed a potential joint emission reduction strategy by utilizing the industrial carbon emission intens-ity(ICEI)as a crucial factor.We utilized social network analysis and Local Indicators of Spatial Association(LISA)space-time trans-ition matrix to investigate the spatiotemporal connections and discrepancies of ICEI in the cities of the Pearl River Basin(PRB),China from 2010 to 2020.The primary drivers of the ICEI were determined through geographical detectors and multi-scale geographically weighted regression.The results were as follows:1)the overall ICEI in the Pearl River Basin is showing a downward trend,and there is a significant spatial imbalance.2)There are numerous network connections between cities regarding the ICEI,but the network structure is relatively fragile and unstable.3)Economically developed cities such as Guangzhou,Foshan,and Dongguan are in the center of the network while playing an intermediary role.4)Energy consumption,industrialization,per capita GDP,urbanization,science and techno-logy,and productivity are found to be the most influential variables in the spatial differentiation of ICEI,and their combination in-creased the explanatory power of the geographic variation of ICEI.Finally,through the analysis of differences and connections in urban carbon emissions under different economic levels and ICEI,the study suggests joint carbon reduction strategies,which are centered on carbon transfer,financial support,and technological assistance among cities.

Learning Rates for Least Square Regressions with Coefficient Regularization

We analyze the learning rates for the least square regression with data dependent hy- pothesis spaces and coefficient regularization algorithms based on general kernels. Under a very mild regularity condition on the regression function, we obtain a bound for the approximation error by esti- mating the corresponding K：-functional. Combining this estimate with the previous result of the sample error, we derive a dimensional free learning rate by the proper choice of the regularization parameter.

A comparison of model choice strategies for logistic regression

Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.

Two-Staged Method for Ice Channel Identification Based on Image Segmentation and Corner Point Regression

Identification of the ice channel is the basic technology for developing intelligent ships in ice-covered waters,which is important to ensure the safety and economy of navigation.In the Arctic,merchant ships with low ice class often navigate in channels opened up by icebreakers.Navigation in the ice channel often depends on good maneuverability skills and abundant experience from the captain to a large extent.The ship may get stuck if steered into ice fields off the channel.Under this circumstance,it is very important to study how to identify the boundary lines of ice channels with a reliable method.In this paper,a two-staged ice channel identification method is developed based on image segmentation and corner point regression.The first stage employs the image segmentation method to extract channel regions.In the second stage,an intelligent corner regression network is proposed to extract the channel boundary lines from the channel region.A non-intelligent angle-based filtering and clustering method is proposed and compared with corner point regression network.The training and evaluation of the segmentation method and corner regression network are carried out on the synthetic and real ice channel dataset.The evaluation results show that the accuracy of the method using the corner point regression network in the second stage is achieved as high as 73.33%on the synthetic ice channel dataset and 70.66%on the real ice channel dataset,and the processing speed can reach up to 14.58frames per second.

Evaluating Ignition and Combustion Performance with Al-Metal- Organic Frameworks and Nano-Aluminum in HTPB Fuel

Incorporating aluminum metal-organic frameworks(Al-MOFs)as energetic additives for solid fuels presents a promising avenue for enhancing combustion performance.This study explores the potential benefits of Al-MOF(MIL-53(Al))energetic additive on the combustion performance of hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene(HTPB)fuel.The HTPB-MOF fuel samples were manufactured using the vacuum-casting technique,followed by a comprehensive evaluation of their ignition and combustion properties using an opposed flow burner(OFB)setup utilizing gaseous oxygen as an oxidizer.To gauge the effectiveness of Al-MOFs as fuel additives,their impact is compared with that of nano-aluminum(nAl),another traditional additive in HTPB fuel.The results indicate that the addition of 15%(mass fraction)nAl into HTPB resulted in the shortest ignition delay time(136 ms),demonstrating improved ignition performance compared to pure HTPB(273 ms).The incorporation of Al-MOF in HTPB also reduced ignition delay times to 227 ms and 189 ms,respectively.Moreover,under high oxidizer mass flux conditions(79—81 kg/(m^(2)s)),HTPB fuel with 15%nAl exhibited a substantial 83.2%increase in regression rate compared to the baseline HTPB fuel,highlighting the positive influence of nAl on combustion behavior.In contrast,HTPB-MOF with a 15%Al-MOF additive showed a 32.7%increase in regression rate compared to pure HTPB.These results suggest that HTPB-nAl outperforms HTPB-MOF in terms of regression rates,indicating a more vigorous and rapid burning behavior.

From partial to complete:Wing-and tail-feather moult sequence and intensity depend on species,life-cycle stage,and moult completeness in passerines

Passerines moult during various life-cycle stages.Some of these moults involve the retention of a variable quantity of wing and tail feathers.This prompts the question whether these partial moults are just arrested complete moults or follow different processes.To address it,I investigated whether three relevant features remain constant across partial and complete moults:1) moult sequence(order of activation) within feather tracts(e.g.,consecutive outward moult of primaries) and among tracts(e.g.,starting with marginal coverts,followed by greater coverts second,tertials,etc.);2) dynamics of moult intensity(amount of feathers growing along the moult progress);and 3) protection of wing quills by overlapping fully grown feathers.To study the effect of moult completeness on these three features,I classified moults of 435 individuals from 61 species in 3 groups:i) complete and partial,ii) without and iii) with retention of feathers within tracts.To study the effect of life-cycle stage,I used postbreeding,postjuvenile,and prebreeding moults.I calculated phylogenetically corrected means to establish feather-moult sequence within tracts.I applied linear regression to analyse moult sequence among tracts,and polynomial regression to study the dynamics of moult intensity as moult progresses.Sequence and intensity dynamics of partial moults tended resemble those of the complete moult as moult completeness increased.Sequence within and among feather tracts tended to shift as moult intensity within tracts and number of tracts increased.Activation of primaries advanced in relation to the other feather tracts as number of moulted primaries increased.Tertial quills were protected by the innermost greater covert regardless of moult completeness.These findings suggest that moult is a self-organised process that adjusts to the degree of completeness of plumage renewal.However,protection of quills and differences among species and between postjuvenile-and prebreeding-moult sequences also suggest an active control linked to feather function,including protection and signalling.

Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China

Systematically determining the discriminatory power of various rainfall properties and their combinations in identifying debris flow occurrence is crucial for early warning systems.In this study,we evaluated the discriminatory power of different univariate and multivariate rainfall threshold models in identifying triggering conditions of debris flow in the Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China.The univariate models used single rainfall properties as indicators,including total rainfall(R_(tot)),rainfall duration(D),mean intensity(I_(mean)),absolute energy(Eabs),storm kinetic energy(E_(s)),antecedent rainfall(R_(a)),and maximum rainfall intensity over various durations(I_(max_dur)).The evaluation reveals that the I_(max_dur)and Eabs models have the best performance,followed by the E_(s),R_(tot),and I_(mean)models,while the D and R_(a)models have poor performances.Specifically,the I_(max_dur)model has the highest performance metrics at a 40-min duration.We used logistic regression to combine at least two rainfall properties to establish multivariate threshold models.The results show that adding D or R_(a)to the models dominated by Eabs,E_(s),R_(tot),or I_(mean)generally improve their performances,specifically when D is combined with I_(mean)or when R_(a)is combined with Eabs or E_(s).Including R_(a)in the I_(max_dur)model,it performs better than the univariate I_(max_dur)model.A power-law relationship between I_(max_dur)and R_(a)or between Eabs and R_(a)has better performance than the traditional I_(mean)–D model,while the performance of the E_(s)–R_(a)model is moderate.Our evaluation reemphasizes the important role of the maximum intensity over short durations in debris flow occurrence.It also highlights the importance of systematically investigating the role of R_(a)in establishing rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flow.Given the regional variations in rainfall patterns worldwide,it is necessary to evaluate the findings of this study across diverse watersheds.

Correlation between Combined Urinary Metal Exposure and Grip Strength under Three Statistical Models:A Cross-sectional Study in Rural Guangxi

Objective This study aimed to investigate the potential relationship between urinary metals copper(Cu),arsenic(As),strontium(Sr),barium(Ba),iron(Fe),lead(Pb)and manganese(Mn)and grip strength.Methods We used linear regression models,quantile g-computation and Bayesian kernel machine regression(BKMR)to assess the relationship between metals and grip strength.Results In the multimetal linear regression,Cu(β=−2.119),As(β=−1.318),Sr(β=−2.480),Ba(β=0.781),Fe(β=1.130)and Mn(β=−0.404)were significantly correlated with grip strength(P<0.05).The results of the quantile g-computation showed that the risk of occurrence of grip strength reduction was−1.007(95%confidence interval:−1.362,−0.652;P<0.001)when each quartile of the mixture of the seven metals was increased.Bayesian kernel function regression model analysis showed that mixtures of the seven metals had a negative overall effect on grip strength,with Cu,As and Sr being negatively associated with grip strength levels.In the total population,potential interactions were observed between As and Mn and between Cu and Mn(P_(interactions) of 0.003 and 0.018,respectively).Conclusion In summary,this study suggests that combined exposure to metal mixtures is negatively associated with grip strength.Cu,Sr and As were negatively correlated with grip strength levels,and there were potential interactions between As and Mn and between Cu and Mn.

Deep Structure Optimization for Incremental Hierarchical Fuzzy Systems Using Improved Differential Evolution Algorithm

The optimization of the rule base of a fuzzy logic system (FLS) based on evolutionary algorithm has achievednotable results. However, due to the diversity of the deep structure in the hierarchical fuzzy system (HFS) and thecorrelation of each sub fuzzy system, the uncertainty of the HFS’s deep structure increases. For the HFS, a largenumber of studies mainly use fixed structures, which cannot be selected automatically. To solve this problem, thispaper proposes a novel approach for constructing the incremental HFS. During system design, the deep structureand the rule base of the HFS are encoded separately. Subsequently, the deep structure is adaptively mutated basedon the fitness value, so as to realize the diversity of deep structures while ensuring reasonable competition amongthe structures. Finally, the differential evolution (DE) is used to optimize the deep structure of HFS and theparameters of antecedent and consequent simultaneously. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of themodel. Specifically, the root mean square errors in the Laser dataset and Friedman dataset are 0.0395 and 0.0725,respectively with rule counts of rules is 8 and 12, respectively.When compared to alternative methods, the resultsindicate that the proposed method offers improvements in accuracy and rule counts.

Improved Twin Support Vector Machine Algorithm and Applications in Classification Problems

The distribution of data has a significant impact on the results of classification.When the distribution of one class is insignificant compared to the distribution of another class,data imbalance occurs.This will result in rising outlier values and noise.Therefore,the speed and performance of classification could be greatly affected.Given the above problems,this paper starts with the motivation and mathematical representing of classification,puts forward a new classification method based on the relationship between different classification formulations.Combined with the vector characteristics of the actual problem and the choice of matrix characteristics,we firstly analyze the orderly regression to introduce slack variables to solve the constraint problem of the lone point.Then we introduce the fuzzy factors to solve the problem of the gap between the isolated points on the basis of the support vector machine.We introduce the cost control to solve the problem of sample skew.Finally,based on the bi-boundary support vector machine,a twostep weight setting twin classifier is constructed.This can help to identify multitasks with feature-selected patterns without the need for additional optimizers,which solves the problem of large-scale classification that can’t deal effectively with the very low category distribution gap.

A performance-based hybrid deep learning model for predicting TBM advance rate using Attention-ResNet-LSTM

The technology of tunnel boring machine(TBM)has been widely applied for underground construction worldwide;however,how to ensure the TBM tunneling process safe and efficient remains a major concern.Advance rate is a key parameter of TBM operation and reflects the TBM-ground interaction,for which a reliable prediction helps optimize the TBM performance.Here,we develop a hybrid neural network model,called Attention-ResNet-LSTM,for accurate prediction of the TBM advance rate.A database including geological properties and TBM operational parameters from the Yangtze River Natural Gas Pipeline Project is used to train and test this deep learning model.The evolutionary polynomial regression method is adopted to aid the selection of input parameters.The results of numerical exper-iments show that our Attention-ResNet-LSTM model outperforms other commonly-used intelligent models with a lower root mean square error and a lower mean absolute percentage error.Further,parametric analyses are conducted to explore the effects of the sequence length of historical data and the model architecture on the prediction accuracy.A correlation analysis between the input and output parameters is also implemented to provide guidance for adjusting relevant TBM operational parameters.The performance of our hybrid intelligent model is demonstrated in a case study of TBM tunneling through a complex ground with variable strata.Finally,data collected from the Baimang River Tunnel Project in Shenzhen of China are used to further test the generalization of our model.The results indicate that,compared to the conventional ResNet-LSTM model,our model has a better predictive capability for scenarios with unknown datasets due to its self-adaptive characteristic.

Prediction and driving factors of forest fire occurrence in Jilin Province,China

Forest fires are natural disasters that can occur suddenly and can be very damaging,burning thousands of square kilometers.Prevention is better than suppression and prediction models of forest fire occurrence have developed from the logistic regression model,the geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,the random forest model,and the support vector machine model based on historical forest fire data from 2000 to 2019 in Jilin Province.The models,along with a distribution map are presented in this paper to provide a theoretical basis for forest fire management in this area.Existing studies show that the prediction accuracies of the two machine learning models are higher than those of the three generalized linear regression models.The accuracies of the random forest model,the support vector machine model,geographical weighted logistic regression model,the Lasso regression model,and logistic model were 88.7%,87.7%,86.0%,85.0%and 84.6%,respectively.Weather is the main factor affecting forest fires,while the impacts of topography factors,human and social-economic factors on fire occurrence were similar.

Uphill or downhill?Cropland use change and its drivers from the perspective of slope spectrum

The continuous decrease of low-slope cropland resources caused by construction land crowding poses huge threat to regional sustainable development and food security.Slope spectrum analysis of topographic and geomorphic features is considered as a digital terrain analysis method which reflects the macro-topographic features by using micro-topographic factors.However,pieces of studies have extended the concept of slope spectrum in the field of geoscience to construction land to explore its expansion law,while research on the slope trend of cropland from that perspective remains rare.To address the gap,in virtue of spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,the cropland use change in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed and the driving factors were explored from the perspective of slope spectrum.Results showed that the slope spectrum curves of cropland area-frequency in the YRB showed a first upward then a downward trend.The change curve of the slope spectrum of cropland in each province(municipality)exhibited various distribution patterns.Quantitative analysis of morphological parameters of cropland slope spectrum revealed that the further down the YRB,the stronger the flattening characteristics,the more obvious the concentration.The province experienced the greatest downhill cropland climbing(CLC)was Shannxi,while province experienced the highest uphill CLC was Zhejiang.The most common cropland use change type in the YRB was horizontal expansion type.The factors affecting average cropland climbing index(ACCI)were quite stable in different periods,while population density(POP)changed from negative to positive during the study period.This research is of practical significance for the rational utilization of cropland at the watershed scale.

Machine learning-assisted efficient design of Cu-based shape memory alloy with specific phase transition temperature

The martensitic transformation temperature is the basis for the application of shape memory alloys(SMAs),and the ability to quickly and accurately predict the transformation temperature of SMAs has very important practical significance.In this work,machine learning(ML)methods were utilized to accelerate the search for shape memory alloys with targeted properties(phase transition temperature).A group of component data was selected to design shape memory alloys using reverse design method from numerous unexplored data.Component modeling and feature modeling were used to predict the phase transition temperature of the shape memory alloys.The experimental results of the shape memory alloys were obtained to verify the effectiveness of the support vector regression(SVR)model.The results show that the machine learning model can obtain target materials more efficiently and pertinently,and realize the accurate and rapid design of shape memory alloys with specific target phase transition temperature.On this basis,the relationship between phase transition temperature and material descriptors is analyzed,and it is proved that the key factors affecting the phase transition temperature of shape memory alloys are based on the strength of the bond energy between atoms.This work provides new ideas for the controllable design and performance optimization of Cu-based shape memory alloys.

Operational optimization of copper flotation process based on the weighted Gaussian process regression and index-oriented adaptive differential evolution algorithm

Concentrate copper grade(CCG)is one of the important production indicators of copper flotation processes,and keeping the CCG at the set value is of great significance to the economic benefit of copper flotation industrial processes.This paper addresses the fluctuation problem of CCG through an operational optimization method.Firstly,a density-based affinity propagationalgorithm is proposed so that more ideal working condition categories can be obtained for the complex raw ore properties.Next,a Bayesian network(BN)is applied to explore the relationship between the operational variables and the CCG.Based on the analysis results of BN,a weighted Gaussian process regression model is constructed to predict the CCG that a higher prediction accuracy can be obtained.To ensure the predicted CCG is close to the set value with a smaller magnitude of the operation adjustments and a smaller uncertainty of the prediction results,an index-oriented adaptive differential evolution(IOADE)algorithm is proposed,and the convergence performance of IOADE is superior to the traditional differential evolution and adaptive differential evolution methods.Finally,the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods are verified by the experiments on a copper flotation industrial process.