Rolling Decision Model of Thermal Power Retrofit and Generation Expansion Planning Considering Carbon Emissions and Power Balance Risk

With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.

Effect of Photovoltaic Power Generation on Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction under Double Carbon Background

Increasing the efficiency and proportion of photovoltaic power generation installations is one of the best ways to reduce both CO_(2) emissions and reliance on fossil-fuel-based power supplies.Solar energy is a clean and renewable power source with excellent potential for further development and utilization.In 2021,the global solar installed capacity was about 749.7 GW.Establishing correlations between solar power generation,standard coal equivalent,carbon sinks,and green sinks is crucial.However,there have been few reports about correlations between the efficiency of tracking solar photovoltaic panels and the above parameters.This paper calculates the increased power generation achievable through the use of tracking photovoltaic panels compared with traditional fixed panels and establishes relationships between power generation,standard coal equivalent,and carbon sinks,providing a basis for attempts to reduce reliance on carbon-based fuels.The calculations show that power generation efficiency can be improved by about 26.12%by enabling solar panels to track the sun's rays during the day and from season to season.Through the use of this improved technology,global CO_(2) emissions can be reduced by 183.63 Mt,and the standard coal equivalent can be reduced by 73.67 Mt yearly.Carbon capture is worth approximately EUR 15.48 billion,and carbon accounting analysis plays a vital role in carbon trading.

The accounting method and application of CO_2 emissions responsibility by the electricity sector at the provincial level in China

When accounting the CO_2 emissions responsibility of the electricity sector at the provincial level in China,it is of great significance to consider the scope of both producers' and the consumers' responsibility,since this will promote fairness in defining emission responsibility and enhance cooperation in emission reduction among provinces.This paper proposes a new method for calculating carbon emissions from the power sector at the provincial level based on the shared responsibility principle and taking into account interregional power exchange.This method can not only be used to account the emission responsibility shared by both the electricity production side and the consumption side,but it is also applicable for calculating the corresponding emission responsibility undertaken by those provinces with net electricity outflow and inflow.This method has been used to account for the carbon emissions responsibilities of the power sector at the provincial level in China since 2011.The empirical results indicate that compared with the production-based accounting method,the carbon emissions of major power-generation provinces in China calculated by the shared responsibility accounting method are reduced by at least 10%,but those of other power-consumption provinces are increased by 20% or more.Secondly,based on the principle of shared responsibility accounting,Inner Mongolia has the highest carbon emissions from the power sector while Hainan has the lowest.Thirdly,four provinces,including Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Hubei and Anhui,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity outflow- 14 million t in 2011,accounting for 74.42% of total carbon emissions from net electricity outflow in China.Six provinces,including Hebei,Beijing,Guangdong,Liaoning,Shandong,and Jiangsu,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity inflow- 11 million t in 2011,accounting for 71.44% of total carbon emissions from net electricity inflow in China.Lastly,this paper has estimated the emission factors of electricity consumption at the provincial level,which can avoid repeated calculations when accounting the emission responsibility of power consumption terminals(e.g.construction,automobile manufacturing and other industries).In addition,these emission factors can also be used to account the emission responsibilities of provincial power grids.

The Economic and Environmental Impacts of Constructing Hydro Power Plants in Turkey:A Dynamic CGE Analysis(2004-2020)

Since Turkey’s economy and population is rapidly growing, Turkey mostly meets its energy demand from imported fossil sources due to the very limited indigenous oil and natural gas resources. However, Turkey has abundant renewable resources especially, hydro power potential to be used for generation of electricity. But only one-third of this significant economical potential could be used. This usage seems insufficient when compared with that of European countries. In order to analyze the potential long term impacts of the hydro power expanding shock on some macroeconomic variables of interest such as GDP, real consumption, real investment, exports, imports, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of hydro power shock under policy scenario doubling hydro power generation. The simulation results show that doubling hydro power have slightly positive effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions for Turkish economy.

碳捕集电厂不同运行方式的电碳特性分析

碳捕集电厂具有成为未来重要电源建设选项的巨大可能性。在深入考察碳捕集电厂的技术原理、工作流程与能量流关系的基础上,深入研究了碳捕集系统内部各个功能环节的协调关系以及灵活运行的机理,从本质上定义并分析了碳捕集电厂的各类典型运行方式,包括基准运行、烟气分流、富液分流、溶液存储以及综合灵活运行方式。针对每一类典型的运行方式,深入分析了碳捕集电厂所对应的电碳特性。最后,以一台典型碳捕集电厂为实证对象构建算例,验证了所得出的研究结论。

Electricity Price of Hybrid Power System and Decision Making of Renewable Energy Investment Capacity

In the existing electricity market,the traditional power suppliers and renewable energy generators coexist in the power supply side. In the power supply side,renewable energy generators generate power by wind and other natural conditions,leading renewable energy output a certain randomness. However,the low marginal generating cost and the reduction of carbon emissions,and thus brings a certain advantage for renewable energy compared to alternative energy. Electricity,as a special commodity,stable and adequate power supply is a necessary guarantee for economic and social development. Power shortage situation is not allowed in the power system,and the extra power needs to be handled for the purpose of safety. In this paper,the hybrid power generated by renewable energy generators and traditional energy generators is used as power supply,and then the electricity market sells hybrid power to electricity consumers,the hybrid power system determines the optimal daytimeprice,nighttime price,and the optimal installed capacity of the renewable energy suppliers. We find that the installed capacity of renewable energy increases first and then decreases with the increase of the price sensitivity coefficient of traditional energy supply. Electricity demand is negatively related to electricity price in the current period,and is positively related to price in the other period. The average price of day and night is only related to the total potential demand of day and night and the total generation probability of renewable energy. The price difference between daytime and nighttime is positively related to potential electricity demand,and negatively related to the sensitivity coefficient of electricity price.

Will auctioning promote the renewable energy generation in China?

Renewable energy generation,as part of the global effort to mitigate climate change,will play a central role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving China's goal of carbon emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutral before 2060.However,the impact of carbon quota auctions on renewable energy generation has not been sufficiently discussed.The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether China can rely on quota auctions to increase renewable energy generation in the short term,and to demonstrate which is more effective in promoting renewable energy development,policy enforcement or auction constraints?The improved neo-trans-log production model,the multiobjective linear programming model and the dispatch heuristic were used to predict additional emission reduction cost,optimized power mix with different auctioning rates,with economic development,technological progress and the unique characteristics of China's power generation industry being taken into consideration.The results show that the auctioning rate will have little influence on the optimized energy production structure,especially on the share of renewable energy resources;when the total on-grid electricity generation ranges from 7625 to 7926 billion kW h and the auctioning rate ranges from 0% to 5%,policy enforcement will influence the generation of renewable energy to a greater extent than auctioning in the near future.

湖南省能源消费碳排放驱动因素及趋势预测实证分析

基于灰色系统理论,建立STIRPAT多变量非线性模型定量研究了湖南省6个角度11个指标对能源消费碳排放的影响。将缓冲算子理论与灰色预测分析相结合,在构建灰色Verhulst模型的同时,采用幂平均弱化缓冲算子对能源消费碳排放量原始数据作优化修正处理并预测未来5年碳排放量。结果表明:产业结构对碳排放关联程度最高、能源结构因素边际贡献率最大,弹性系数为-0.2055,经过幂平均弱化缓冲算子处理的模型具有更高的预测精度。通过定性分析湖南省能源消费碳排放量变化特征,定量计算碳排放驱动因素的边际贡献度,结合其发展趋势和预测结果,可为湖南省节能减排政策的制定提供参考。