Modeling the Failure Rate of a Standby Multi-Component System and Improving Reliability

Evaluating the reliability of a system requires knowledge of the failure modes to which it is subjected. Complex topology systems generally require a high level of availability, which is a function of the arrangement of elements (components) in the system. To avoid serious failures for such complex systems, recourse can be had to the redundancy techniques available in the literature. These techniques help to improve system reliability, without affecting the reliability of system components. This paper is interested in the proposal of a model for evaluating the failure rate of a standby multi-components system and in improving the reliability of mechanical systems, arranged in a topology (series, parallel, or mixed).

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A REPAIRABLE PARALLEL SYSTEM WITH TIME-VARYING FAILURE RATES

To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,and obtains calculating formulas of reliability and availability of the system by solving differential equations.In this paper,the failure rates are expressed in polynomial configuration.The constant,linear and Weibull failure rate are in their special form.The polynomial failure rates provide flexibility in modeling the practical time-varying failure rates.

Robust reliable H_∞ control for discrete-time Markov jump linear systems with actuator failures

The robust reliable H∞ control problem for discrete-time Markovian jump systems with actuator failures is studied. A more practical model of actuator failures than outage is considered. Based on the state feedback method, the resulting closed-loop systems are reliable in that they remain robust stochastically stable and satisfy a certain level of H∞ disturbance attenuation not only when all actuators are operational, but also in case of some actuator failures, The solvability condition of controllers can be equivalent to a feasibility problem of coupled linear matrix inequalities （LMIs）. A numerical example is also given to illustrate the design procedures and their effectiveness.

Reliability and Availability Models of Belt Drive Systems Considering Failure Dependence

Conventional reliability models of belt drive systems in the failure mode of fatigue are mainly based on the static stress strength interference model and its extended models, which cannot consider dynamic factors in the operational duration and be used for further availability analysis. In this paper, time-dependent reliability models, failure rate models and availability models of belt drive systems are developed based on the system dynamic equations with the dynamic stress and the material property degradation taken into account. In the proposed models, dynamic failure dependence and imperfect maintenance are taken into consideration. Furthermore, the issue of time scale inconsistency between system failure rate and system availability is proposed and addressed in the proposed system availability models. Besides, Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to validate the established models. The results from the proposed models and those from the Monte Carlo simulations show a consistency. Furthermore, the case studies show that the failure dependence, imperfect maintenance and the time scale inconsistency have significant influences on system availability. The independence assumption about the belt drive systems results in underestimations of both reliability and availability. Moreover, the neglect of the time scale inconsistency causes the underestimate of the system availability. Meanwhile, these influences show obvious time-dependent characteristics.

Automatic prediction of time to failure of open pit mine slopes based on radar monitoring and inverse velocity method

Radar slope monitoring is now widely used across the world, for example, the slope stability radar(SSR)and the movement and surveying radar(MSR) are currently in use in many mines around the world.However, to fully realize the effectiveness of this radar in notifying mine personnel of an impending slope failure, a method that can confidently predict the time of failure is necessary. The model developed in this study is based on the inverse velocity method pioneered by Fukuzono in 1985. The model named the slope failure prediction model(SFPM) was validated with the displacement data from two slope failures monitored with the MSR. The model was found to be very effective in predicting the time to failure while providing adequate evacuation time once the progressive displacement stage is reached.

Structural first failure times under non-Gaussian stochastic behavior

An analytical moment-based method for calculating structuralfirst failure times under non-Gaussian stochastic behavior is proposed. In the method, a power series that constants can be obtained from response moments （skewness, kurtosis, etc.） is used firstly to map a non-Gaussian structural response into a standard Gaussian process, then mean up-crossing rates, mean clump size and the initial passage probability of a critical barrier level by the original structural response are estimated, and finally, the formula for calculating first failure times is established on the assur^ption that corrected up-crossing rates are independent. An analysis of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom dynamical system excited by a Gaussian model of load not only demonstrates the usage of the proposed method but also shows the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method by comparisons between the present method and other methods such as Monte Carlo simulation and the traditional Gaussian model.

Reliability evaluation of bladder accumulator with no failure data

As a bladder accumulator is a high reliable and long life component in a hydraulic system,its cost is high and it takes a lot of time to test its reliability,therefore,a reliability test with small sample is performed,and no failure data is obtained using the method of fixed time truncation. In the case of Weibull distribution,a life reliability model of bladder energy storage is established by Bayesian method using the optimal confidence intervals method,a model of one-sided lower confidence intervals of the reliability and one-sided lower confidence intervals model of the reliability life are established. Results of experiments show that the evaluation method of no failure data under Weibull distribution is a good way to evaluate the reliability of the accumulator,which is convenient for engineering application,and the reliability of the accumulator has theoretical and practical significance.

A Functional Inspection Model for the Immeasurable Potential Failure State

Functional inspection is a type of preventive maintenance of Reliability Centered Maintenance （ RCM）. We, in this paper, establish a functional inspection model（ FIM） the cost model and the availability model for the immeasurable potential failure state based on the delay time concept. This model can be used to determine the appropriate Functional Inspection Interval（FII） to achieve the goal of specific cost and availability and to assist in maintenance decision making.

Reliability-BasedModel for Incomplete Preventive ReplacementMaintenance of Photovoltaic Power Systems

At present,the operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power generation systems mainly comprise regular maintenance,breakdown maintenance,and condition-based maintenance,which is very likely to lead to over-or under-repair of equipment.Therefore,a preventive maintenance and replacement strategy for PV power generation systems based on reliability as a constraint is proposed.First,a hybrid failure function with a decreasing service age factor and an increasing failure rate factor is introduced to describe the deterioration of PV power generation equipment,and the equipment is replaced when its reliability drops to the replacement threshold in the last cycle.Then,based on the reliability as a constraint,the average maintenance cost and availability of the equipment are considered,and the non-periodic incomplete maintenance model of the PV power generation system is established to obtain the optimal number of repairs,each maintenance cycle and the replacement cycle of the PV power generation system components.Next,the inverter of a PV power plant is used as a research object.The model in this paper is compared and analyzed with the equal cycle maintenance model without considering reliability and the maintenance model without considering the equipment replacement threshold,Through model comparison,when the optimal maintenance strategy is(0.80,4),the average maintenance cost of this paper’s model are decreased by 20.3%and 5.54%and the availability is increased by 0.2395% and 0.0337%,respectively,compared with the equal-cycle maintenance model without considering the reliability constraint and the maintenance model without considering the equipment replacement threshold.Therefore,this maintenance model can ensure the high reliability of PV plant operation while increasing the equipment availability to improve the system economy.

Time-dependent Vibration Frequency Reliability Analysis of Blade Vibration of Compressor Wheel of Turbocharger for Vehicle Application

Blade vibration failure is one of the main failure modes of compressor wheel of turbocharger for vehicle application. The existing models for evaluating the reliability of blade vibration of compressor wheel are static, and can not reflect the relationship between the reliability of compressor wheel with blade vibration failure mode and the life parameter. For the blade vibration failure mode of compressor wheel of turbocharger, the reliability evaluation method is studied. Taking a compressor wheel of turbocharger for vehicle application as an example, the blade vibration characteristics and how they change with the operating parameters of turbocharger are analyzed. The failure criterion for blade vibration mode of compressor wheel is built with the Campbell diagram, and taking the effect of the dispersity of blade natural vibration frequency and randomness of turbocharger operating speed into account, time-dependent reliability models of compressor wheel with blade vibration failure mode are derived, which embody the parameters of blade natural vibration frequency, turbocharger operating speed, the blade number of compressor wheel, life index and minimum number of resonance, etc. Finally, the rule governing the reliability and failure rate of compressor wheel and the method for determining the reliable life of compressor with blade vibration is presented. A method is proposed to evaluate the reliability of compressor wheel with blade vibration failure mode time-dependently.

Two new multi-phase reliability growth models from the perspective of time between failures and their applications

Aviation products would go through a multi-phase improvement in reliability performance during the research and development process.In the literature,most of the existing reliability growth models assume a constant failure intensity in each test phase,which inevitably limits the scope of the application.To address this problem,we propose two new models considering timevarying failure intensity in each stage.The proposed models borrow the idea from the accelerated failure-time models.It is assumed that time between failures follow the log-location-scale distribution and the scale parameters in each phase do not change,which forms the basis for integrating the data from all test stages.For the test-find-test scenario,an improvement factor is introduced to construct the relationship between two successive location parameters.Whereas for the test-fix-test scenario,the instantaneous cumulative time between failures is assumed to be consistent with Duane model and derive the formulation of location parameter.Likelihood ratio test is further utilized to test whether the assumption of constant failure intensity in each phase is suitable.Several applications with real reliability growth data show that the assumptions are reasonable and the proposed models outperform the existing models.

Robust reliable guaranteed cost control for uncertain singular systems with time-delay

The robust reliable guaranteed cost control for uncertain singular delay systems with actuator failures and a given quadratic cost function is studied. The system under consideration involves constant time-delay and norm-bounded parameter uncertainties. The purpose is to design state feedback controllers which can tolerate actuator failure, such that the closed-loop system is stable, and the specified cost function has an upper bound for all admissible uncertainties. The sufficient conditions for the solvability of this problem are obtained by a linear matrix inequality （LMI） method. Furthermore, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach.

The Mean Residual Lifetime of (n-k+1)-out-of-n;Systems in Discrete Setting

In real life, there are situations in which the lifetime of the components of a technical system (and hence the lifetime of the system) is discrete. In this paper, we study the residual life, a (n - k + 1)-out-of-n system under the assumptions that the components of the system are independent identically distributed with common discrete distribution function F. We define the mean residual lifetime (MRL) of the system and under different scenarios investigate several aging and stochastic properties of MRL.

A Reliability-Based Strategy for the Analysis of Single Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells

The development of power conversion systems based on fuel cells has been demanding reliability studies since the requirements associated with cost and durability of these technological products have become fundamental to their acceptance by the energy market. The experimental part of the reliability study presented in this work consisted of performing life tests with single proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). The proposed reliability analysis methodology covered the application of qualitative and quantitative techniques. In the qualitative approach, a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis was developed in order to identify and evaluate all potential failures associated with the operation of fuel cells. In the quantitative approach, a statistical analysis was applied to the sample data generated in long-term steady-state tests of these devices. A two-parameter exponential distribution was fitted to data and the maximum likelihood estimate for the mean time to failure (MTTF) of the fuel cells was calculated. It is important to point out that the tests performed under the scope of this study were the first long-term experiments performed with the fuel cells produced in the laboratories of IPEN-CNEN/SP, Brazil. Although the results indicated that fuel cell performance and durability were still at a level below the targets normally established for similar commercial devices, the improvement of the main components of PEMFCs has been the objective of several projects developed at the institute. Thus, the main benefit brought by this study is the proposed methodology, which can be implemented as part of a reliability growth analysis of the fuel cells and can be integrated into the design process of these devices.

Mathematical Modeling and Evaluation of Reliability Parameters Based on Survival Possibilities under Uncertain Environment

In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of prime concern.In view of this,the outcomes for the failure are required to evaluate with utmost care.In possibility theory,the reliability information data determined from decision-making experts are subjective.The samemethod is also related to the survival possibilities as against the survival probabilities.The other method is the one that is developed using the concept of approximation of closed interval including the piecewise quadratic fuzzy numbers.In this method,a decision-making expert is not sure of his/her estimates of the reliability parameters.Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the efficiency of the suggested methods in this research.In the end,the paper is concluded with some future research directions to be explored for the proposed approach.

天然气管道可靠性增长预测方法研究

为减少天然气管道投产前的设计和制造缺陷,提高使用寿命、运行可靠性和安全性、减少后期维修费用,通过统计模型结合试验数据实现对天然气管道可靠性增长水平的预测,提出天然气管道可靠性增长预测方法;分析常用可靠性增长模型并结合天然气管道可维修、小子样的特点,将Duane模型与AMSAA模型应用于天然气管道,结合点估计、趋势检验、拟合优度检验、区间估计和标准差,得出天然气管道可靠性增长模型,预测可靠性增长并进行实例验证。研究结果表明:Duane模型与AMSAA模型作为天然气管道可靠性增长试验具有可行性;其中AMSAA模型更具优势,得出天然气管道的瞬时无故障工作时间(MTBF)估计值可达到试验目标值,并预测MTBF达到2000 h时所需要的试验时间为317954611.3 h,未来第51次故障预测区间为[848.4609,939.6226],误差为1.25%,方法具有良好的适用性,可有效预测天然气管道可靠性增长。研究结果可为天然气管道设计改进提供指导。

基于不同统计模型对压力蒸汽灭菌器故障数据集的可靠性分析

目的:基于医院压力蒸汽灭菌器的故障数据,分析评估医疗机构中压力蒸汽灭菌器的可靠性。方法:利用威布尔分布(Weibull分布)、指数分布(Exponential分布)、对数-正态分布(Log-Normal分布)和q-威布尔分布(q-Weibull分布)4种统计模型对压力蒸汽灭菌器的故障数据进行分析,并使用图表工具展示不同分布统计模型在拟合数据时的性能。结果:4种统计模型对比显示,Log-Normal分布统计模型的修正赤池信息准则为564.4512,贝叶斯准则(568.7691)值最低,柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫(KS)统计量(0.0739)最小,P值最大(P>0.05),表明分布拟合效果最好,最适合用于分析压力蒸汽灭菌器故障数据集的模型。结论:通过使用不同统计模型对压力蒸汽灭菌器故障数据的可靠性分析,可以为临床工程师优化压力蒸汽灭菌器维护策略提供依据。

基于大数据分析的高校多媒体设备可靠性研究

随着教育事业发展,多媒体教学成为各高校最普遍、使用频率最高的教学模式。充分利用多媒体设备运行数据优化管理工作,延长设备使用寿命,降低设备维护成本,始终是教育技术部门关注的问题。通过对天津大学卫津路校区6年来多媒体设备报修数据进行统计分析,利用SPSS分析软件对2020和2021年的数据进行线性回归,分析总报修数量与年度使用时间和设备实际使用年限的线性相关性;基于平均故障间隔时间对近2年的硬件报修进行分设备类型统计,从概念引入到推导计算,均给出详细验证过程。结合对非硬件问题造成的软件报修的前5位问题进行详细分析,据此提出设备更新科学化,定期巡检规范化和培训方式多样化的对策建议。

基于路径故障概率分析的软件可靠性评估仿真

为了保证软件运行安全,减少故障发生概率,提出了一种持续集成环境中软件可靠性评估方法。计算软件故障率,根据计算结果划分故障等级,充分考虑组件的重要程度,量化可靠性指标,选用偏导数描述软件组件的重要程度。引入路径概念,根据软件可靠性特征,建立路径原则,对持续集成环境软件可靠性进行分析,明确路径故障概率后,当路径上的某一项运算发生错误时,整个路径即为故障路径,由此得到路径故障率,实现整体软件可靠性评估。由实验结果可知,所提方法能够得到更为精准的软件可靠性评估结果,有利于保证网络运行稳定安全。

Reliability Evaluation and Improvement of Islanded Microgrid Considering Operation Failures of Power Electronic Equipment

With the high integration of power electronic technologies in microgrids,the reliability assessment considering power electronic devices has become a hot topic.However,so far no research has considered the impact of the operation failure probability of power electronic equipment on the overall reliability of the microgrid.This paper aims to construct a holistic operation failure rate model of power electronic systems based on the overall reliability assessment of islanded microgrid with high penetration of renewable energy sources(RESs).In addition,to improve the reliability of islanded microgrid,the conventional battery energy storage system(BESS)is replaced by the hybrid energy storage system(HESS).Based on the proposed model,the operation failure models for the power electronic modules in microgrid are built and tested,and then the sensitivity analysis is performed for exploring the influence of various factors on the reliability of the microgrid.